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US strikes a deal with Ukraine that includes access to its rare earth minerals

Ukraine and the U.S. have reached an agreement on a framework for a broad economic deal that would include access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, three senior Ukrainian officials said Tuesday. The officials, who were familiar with the matter, spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. One of them said that Kyiv hopes that signing the agreement will ensure the continued flow of U.S. military support that Ukraine urgently needs. The agreement could be signed as early as Friday and plans are being drawn up for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to travel to Washington to meet President Donald Trump, according to one of the Ukrainian officials.

Another official said the agreement would provide an opportunity for Zelenskyy and Trump to discuss continued military aid to Ukraine, which is why Kyiv is eager to finalize the deal.

Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, said he’d heard that Zelenskyy was coming and added that “it’s okay with me, if he’d like to, and he would like to sign it together with me.” Trump called it a big deal that could be worth a trillion dollars. “It could be whatever, but it’s rare earths and other things.” According to one Ukrainian official, some technical details are still to be determined. However, the draft does not include a contentious Trump administration proposal to give the U.S. $500 billion worth of profits from Ukraine’s rare earth minerals as compensation for its wartime assistance to Kyiv. Instead, the U.S. and Ukraine would have joint ownership of a fund, and Ukraine would in the future contribute 50% of future proceeds from state-owned resources, including minerals, oil, and gas. One official said the deal had better terms of investments and another one said that Kyiv secured favorable amendments and viewed the outcome as “positive.”

The deal does not, however, include security guarantees. One official said that this would be something the two presidents would discuss when they meet..

The idea was initially proposed last fall by Zelenskyy as part of his plan to strengthen Kyiv’s hand in future negotiations with Moscow.

nn: this gives new meaning to a shotgun wedding. Markets are mistaken that a emanate peace deal will come out of this. Or Russian sanctions instituted by Europe will  be lifted anytime soon

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending February 21, 2025

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 430.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending February 21, 2025, which was 317 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 86.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production
decreased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.9 million barrels per day last week, increased by 98 thousand
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 5.5% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 462 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 370 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels from last week and are 1% belowthe five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by
2.2 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, up by 4.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied
averaged 8.4 million barrels a day, down by 0.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 13.1% fromthe same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 4.5% compared with the same four

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Zelensky: No just peace without security guarantees

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Wednesday that no just peace between Russia and Ukraine can be achieved without security guarantees for Kiev. “We want to have a ceasefire, but if we don’t have security nothing will work,” Zelensky said at a press conference. Furthermore, the president stressed that a mineral deal with the United States, which he described as a “framework agreement,” now includes a mention of American security guarantees. However, he pointed out that he needs to better understand what kind of security guarantees the US would offer. Finally, Zelensky ensured that he would ask US President Donald Trump during his upcoming visit to the White House if Washington intends to stop military aid flows to make clear what Ukraine can count on from the US.

nn: it looks to me like a unconditional surrender 
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IAEA: Iran stepped up enriched uranium output

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a report on Wednesday that Iran has increased the production of 60% enriched uranium since November. The output rose by 92.5 kg to 274.8 kg, according to the document reviewed by the Associated Press. Uranium enriched to 60% can be further enriched to 90%, with the IAEA estimating 42 kg would be enough to make one atomic bomb. The report follows new sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States under US President Donald Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure,” which he also pursued during his first administration. Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2018, accusing Tehran of violating it.

nn: these escalations are serous and being ignored by the markets
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Iran Rejects Direct Nuclear Talks With USA Under Trump Policy

 

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country won’t agree to direct nuclear talks with the US while President Donald Trump persists with his hard-line policy against the Islamic Republic.

“We will not negotiate under pressure, sanctions, or threats,” Araghchi said in a televised press conference alongside his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Tehran on Tuesday. Direct negotiations between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue will be impossible “as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this manner,” Araghchi said.

Trump has vowed to squeeze Iran’s economy and target its oil exports as part of a return to the “maximum pressure” strategy that he deployed in his first term. That led to the 2018 US withdrawal from a landmark international deal that limited Iran’s atomic activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Iran’s stockpile of near weapons-grade enriched uranium has since surged. Araghchi said Iran will cooperate fully on its nuclear affairs — but only with “friends” China and Russia. Since returning to office last month, Trump has said he wants Iran to agree to a new nuclear agreement, but Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the idea earlier this month, saying negotiating with the US “won’t solve any of the country’s problems.”  Speaking alongside Araghchi, Lavrov said Russia will pursue diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. “We’re convinced that the tool of diplomacy remains,” Lavrov said. “It cannot be neglected — it must be used as effectively as possible without any threats and without hints at the possibility of certain forceful solutions.” Iran and the US haven’t had direct, formal ties since the 1979 Islamic revolution and previous negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal took place through mediators. Araghchi didn’t mention whether indirect or mediated talks with the US are still on the table. Lavrov’s visit to Tehran comes as Trump aligns with Russia and President Vladimir Putin over its invasion of Ukraine, sparking strong criticism and concern from both Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and much of Europe. It’s unclear what impact the US’s pivot to Moscow will have on Putin’s alliance with Iran, which has deepened since the start of the war and has involved purchases of large amounts of Iranian drones and a plan to develop a major trading corridor using the Caspian Sea.  Araghchi said he and Lavrov discussed trade and transport ties and held detailed and “very good” discussions on the future of Syria and Gaza, adding that they both “strongly condemned” Trump’s plan to forcibly displace Palestinians from the territory.

nn pod cast greatest theat we face

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Oil Prices Under Pressure Despite Fresh Sanctions on Iran

Oil prices were under pressure early on Tuesday morning despite the Trump administration announcing fresh sanctions on Iran’s oil industry on Monday. President Trump’s recent push for a deal between Russia and Ukraine, his foot-dragging over Canadian and Mexican tariffs, and expectations of OPEC+ supply increases from April onwards have seen interest in crude oil futures plunge to multi-month lows.

Open interest in WTI futures is now the lowest in nine months, falling to 2.12 million lots in the week ending February 18 according to CFTC data, with investors switching en masse to gold.

The net length held by hedge funds and other money managers has posted four straight week-over-week declines and now stands at the equivalent of 103 million barrels, its lowest since October 2024. After hedge funds were incessantly shorting diesel futures in the US between June 2024 and January 2025, positioning in the ULSD futures contract finally turned long and net length ticked in at 11,872 lots in CFTC’s most recent data, suggesting tight distillate stocks could be a moderately bullish factor over the upcoming weeks. At the same time that US-Russia talks on a final Ukraine settlement are underway, the Trump administration has been tightening the screws on Iranian oil supply. The White House announced yet another round of sanctions on anyone believed to facilitate Tehran’s exports to China. Despite that move, ICE Brent futures currently trading under $74 per barrel, beneath the $74.29-77.00 per barrel range that has so far contained every single settlement this month. The US Treasury Department imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil industry this Monday, blacklisting more than 30 brokers and shipping companies for their alleged participation in trades, in line with President Trump’s maximum pressure pledge on Tehran.

NN Buy the shit out of oil
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Bitcoin slumps 5%, falls below $92,000

Bitcoin extended its losses on Tuesday, dropping below $87,000 for the first time since November 14, 2024. The fall in cryptocurrencies comes as United States President Donald Trump confirmed that his tariff agenda is “moving very rapidly,” which caused investors to consider the implications of the economic uncertainty on the global markets. Investors were also still digesting the major hacker attack on the cryptocurrency exchange Bybit that resulted in more than $1.5 billion in Ethereum being stolen.

Bitcoin dropped by 5.16% at 5:23 am ET and sold for $86,796. Meanwhile, Ethereum declined by 6.25%, selling for $2,356 at 5:26 am ET.

 

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Oil up…. climbs on Iraq’s output cuts

Oil prices rose by more than 1% on Monday after Iraq, a member of OPEC, revealed plans to address overproduction by implementing further output cuts. This move comes as the country gears up to obtain 185,000 barrels of oil from the Kurdistan Region, marking the initial phase of reinitiating exports through the Ceyhan pipeline pending Turkey’s approval.

“The Iraqi Ministry of Oil affirms its full commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, the additional agreed cuts, and to compensate for excess output from previous months,” the Iraqi oil ministry said. According to an agreement with OPEC+, Iraq is committed to producing four million barrels of oil per day, of which 700,000 barrels are used domestically.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for deliveries in April improved by 1.22% at 12:09 pm ET, going for $70.81 per barrel. Brent for settlements in April added 1.01% a minute later and sold for $74.71 per barrel.

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Israel sends tanks into West Bank

JENIN, West Bank (AP) — Israeli tanks moved into the occupied West Bank on Sunday for the first time in decades in what Palestinian authorities called a “dangerous escalation,” after the defense minister said troops will remain in parts of the territory for a year and tens of thousands of Palestinians who have fled cannot return. Associated Press journalists saw several tanks move along unpaved tracks into Jenin, long a bastion of armed struggle against Israel. Israel is deepening its crackdown on the Palestinian territory and has said it is determined to stamp out militancy amid a rise in attacks. It launched the offensive in the northern West Bank on Jan. 21 — two days after the current ceasefire in Gaza took hold — and expanded it to nearby areas. Palestinians view the deadly raids as part of an effort to cement Israeli control over the territory, where 3 million Palestinians live under military rule. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to “increase the intensity of the activity to thwart terrorism” in all refugee camps in the West Bank. “We will not allow the return of residents, and we will not allow terrorism to return and grow,” he said. Earlier, Katz said he had instructed the military to prepare for “an extended stay” in some of the West Bank’s urban refugee camps from which about 40,000 Palestinians have fled, leaving them “emptied of residents.” The camps are home to descendants of Palestinians who fled during wars with Israel decades ago. It was not clear how long Palestinians would be prevented from returning. Katz said Israeli troops would stay “for the coming year.” Netanyahu said they would stay “as long as needed. ”Tanks were last deployed in the West Bank in 2002, when Israel fought a deadly Palestinian uprising. The Palestinian foreign ministry called the Israeli moves “a dangerous escalation of the situation in the West Bank,” and urged the international community to intervene in what it termed Israel’s illegal “aggression.” “Even if they stay, we will return to the camp at the end,” said Mohamed al-Sadi, one of those displaced from Jenin. “This camp is ours. We have no other place to go.

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Ukraine: In last stages of minerals deal with US

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration Olga Stefanishyna said on Monday that Ukraine and the United States are in the “last stages” of negotiations on the development of Ukrainian mineral deposits. “The negotiations have been very constructive, with nearly all key details finalized,” she stated, adding that she hopes the deal will be signed quickly. Last week, the Trump administration said it is looking for “payback” for $500 billion in aid given to Ukraine. Reports claimed the US presented Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a proposal that would give Washington 50% of revenues from resource extraction and new licenses, as well as from Ukrainian fossil fuels and ports. Zelensky’s refusal to sign the agreement provoked a public dispute with US President Donald Trump and brought into question future US support for Ukraine..