BlackMask Breaking News

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on Thursday that global oil demand growth is expected to average 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, rising from 870,000 bpd in 2024. The forecast was revised slightly upward from the agency’s previous expectations.

China is set to contribute most to the 2025 demand growth despite its share of global increase falling to 19%, while India and Other Asia are expected to contribute a combined 500,000 bpd to global demand growth.

Meanwhile, global oil supply, which stood at 102.7 million bpod in 2024, is forecast to grow by 1.6 million bpd to 104.5 this year. “Fresh US sanctions on Russia and Iran roiled markets at the start of the year but they have yet to materially impact global oil supply. Iranian crude oil exports are only marginally lower while Russian flows, so far, continue largely unaffected,” the IEA stated.

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“I think we’re on the way to peace with Russia and Ukraine,” United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday in the Oval Office, adding, however, that it is unlikely that Ukraine will get all its land back. He further detailed that he will likely meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia for the first time, with the involvement of the Saudi Crown Prince. He shared that Putin told him he wanted to see the war end and not go back to it “six months later.” On the question of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the US head of state commented that he doesn’t think “it’s practical” for Kiev to have a NATO membership. When asked whether he sees Ukraine as an equal member in the peace process, Trump didn’t give a straight answer and only stated that “they have to make peace.”

Nick Note: As expected trump has forced a peace deal in the Ukraine. And our oil trade obviously envisioned such an event and  traded accordingly. You should have another smile on your face.  My comment on the deal is it’s not a good one for the Ukraine or Europe.  Its one of these slamma Bamma Jamma. Make  a deal, get a headline and run. Look Ukraine lost the war. We’re now arranging their terms of their surrender and they’re not surrendering under very good terms. They really lost years ago when they foolishly gave up their nukes. They will pay the price today because they are going to lose a lot of territory and wealth. They are not going to get  NATO membership. Not now not ever. The best Ukraine can hope for is  some backhanded agreement of some loosely defined protection from another Russian incursion. And it gets worse. Because of war debt  Ukraine assets will be  divided up between Russia, Europe and he US.  Ukraine’s resource will be sliced and diced. You’re talking about the oil and offshore natural gas. Agricultural resources for Europe from the great planes, You have a lot of a rare Earth minerals. Oil is automatically taken by  the capture of key territories that Russia’s so cleverly grabbed. The breadbasket of the great plains of the Ukraine will be taken by the Europeans. And America has taken the rights to the rare earth minerals especially lithium. It’s basically a surrender under the worst possible terms. And I’m not even sure that Ukraine will exist for another 10 years as a free from Russia country. I think it’s going continue to be sliced and diced……  anyway it’s what they call peace

United States President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he had a “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss Ukraine, the Middle East and artificial intelligence, among other topics. “We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together. But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, ‘COMMON SENSE,'” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding that the world leaders agreed to start the negotiations “immediately” and that he will notify Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of the conversation. Trump also thanked Putin for the release of the American citizen Marc Fogel and expressed his optimism about a “successful conclusion, hopefully soon.”

nn: this is the at of the deal… not the deal

Zelensky, Trump talk ‘opportunities to achieve peace’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took to X on Wednesday to say he discussed “opportunities to achieve peace” with Russia in a conversation with US President Donald Trump. “I had a meaningful conversation with POTUS. We long talked about opportunities to achieve peace, discussed our readiness to work together at the team level, and Ukraine’s technological capabilities—including drones and other advanced industries. I am grateful to President Trump for his interest in what we can accomplish together, ” Zelensky added. Earlier, Trump announced he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and agreed to begin negotiations to broker a ceasefire to the war in Ukraine. “President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, ‘COMMON SENSE.’ We both believe very strongly in it. We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations,” Trump wrote.

OPEC has signaled it would not change its production policy despite calls from the U.S. president to bring more oil to market. “We read the market. We analyze the supply, demand, away from political considerations, purely on technical, sound technical considerations, and we take the decisions that provide stability in the market,” the cartel’s secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said, as quoted by Reuters. Speaking at the India Energy Week, al-Ghais added “If you look at oil, also last year, oil was probably the least volatile commodity, and I think that’s greatly down to the decisions and the clarity that we take it (at) OPEC+. So this is our objective. This is what we will keep doing.” President Donald Trump has called on OPEC to start unwinding its production cuts in order to bring down global oil prices and hasten the end of the Ukraine war. However, these calls have not met with a positive reaction from either OPEC or, indeed, the U.S. oil industry. OPEC and its partners in OPEC+ plan to start gradually increasing oil production from April—but only if the price is right, as the producers’ group has made clear repeatedly. It seems, however, that the price may not be right, if the U.S. Energy Information Administration is correct in its latest production forecast. In the February edition of its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expected global hydrocarbon liquids production to rise by 1.9 million barrels daily this year, including from OPEC as it relaxes its cuts. The rest of the increase will come from higher production from non-OPEC countries, the EIA said. On the other hand, the federal agency also predicted that current OPEC+ cuts will keep a cap on global oil inventories through the first quarter of the year, which could lend some support to prices, potentially motivating a relaxation of the production cuts.

U.S. sanctions against Russia’s oil exports and trade should not hinder Russian energy trade with India, Russia’s first deputy energy minister, Pavel Sorokin, said on Tuesday. Indian refiners are scrambling for alternatives after the U.S. sanctions designated hundreds of tankers, as well as oil traders, last month. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the bans on Russian oil in the West, India has become a key buyer of Russian crude, alongside China. Russia, for its part, became the single biggest oil supplier to India, the world’s third-largest oil importer. Now the sanctions have reduced the availability of non-sanctioned tankers to carry out the trades. For India, which imports more than 80% of the crude it consumes daily, the costs are spiking and the cheap Russian barrels are disappearing as Indian refiners steer clear of tankers explicitly sanctioned by the U.S.  “We believe energy trade shouldn’t be hindered by any politics,” Russia’s Sorokin told the audience at the India Energy Week conference on Tuesday. “Our relationship with India is based on economic pragmatism,” Sorokin said, as carried by Reuters. It is too early to assess the impact of the U.S. sanctions on the Russia-India oil trade, the Russian official added. “More time is needed to assess these things, but we believe that constructive relationships will continue to be successful,” Sorokin was quoted as saying. For now, India has received clarification from the U.S. that the Russian oil tankers sanctioned last month are allowed to discharge their crude at Indian ports until February 27. While the U.S. clarification could be a relief for India for this month, it is not certain how trade will proceed going forward. Indian refiners are already scrambling for supply for arrival after February.  India will continue to buy Russian oil if it is sold below the $60 per barrel price cap and delivered on non-sanctioned tankers and without any involvement of sanctioned companies or individuals, Indian officials have said.

Oil prices climbed despite the real threat of a global trade war erupting after U.S. President Donald Trump announced wide-ranging tariffs on U.S. imports,  this time targeting steel and aluminium. On Monday, Trump announced he will impose a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the U.S., with Canada likely to be hardest hit. Trump also talked about reciprocal tariffs on all countries that tax imports from the U.S., although he did not give the specifics, “If they charge us, we charge them,” Trump said.

Brent crude for April delivery was up to $77.00 per barrel at 8.00 .am ET while WTI crude for March delivery trade at  73.41. It appears that Trump’s end-game is to keep the markets on their toes, but that strategy might not be working, this time around.

Trump’s latest tariff threats come at a time when the trade balance between the U.S. and its biggest trading partner has been tilting against it.  Canada’s energy exports to the United States surged in the latter part of 2024, helping the country record its biggest surplus with its main trading partner since 2022. Crude oil exports jumped amid a weakening Canadian dollar as well as traders stockpiling inventories ahead of Trump’s tariffs. The trade surplus widened to C$11.3 billion in December, up from C$8.2 billion previously while crude exports to the U.S. jumped 11.8% in the final quarter. Nearly 76% of all exports by Canada went to the U.S. compared to 62% of all imports coming from the U.S. Last year, the value of Canada’s imports and exports with the U.S. surpassed the C$1 trillion mark for a third straight year.

US President Donald Trump  gave Palestinian militant organization Hamas an ultimatum: release all remaining hostages being held in Gaza or face harsh consequences. Trump spoke out in favour of terminating the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, which went into effect on January 19 for an initial six weeks,

if all remaining hostages are not released by “Saturday at 12 o’clock.” If that does not happen, “all hell is going to break out,” Trump said at the White House in Washington.

Trump stressed that the decision lies with Israel. “I’m speaking for myself. Israel can override it,” he said. Trump did not specify what consequences Hamas might have to fear from the US, just saying “They’ll find out what I mean” when asked to expand on his comments. Trump went on to say that he did not expect for Hamas to comply with his demand. “I don’t think they’re going to [comply] … I think a lot of the hostages are dead. I think it’s a great, it’s a great human tragedy.” Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida on Monday said the group was indefinitely postponing the release of the next set of Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, saying Israel had failed to abide by the terms of the ceasefire agreement. Three more hostages had been scheduled to be freed on Saturday in exchange for dozens of Palestinian prisoners as part of the deal. This will only be possible if Israel adheres to the agreement again, Hamas said. Israel has repeatedly rejected accusations that it is violating the agreement. Israeli government spokesman David Mencer has in particular denied that Israel has blocked aid deliveries to the Gaza Strip. The halt to the hostage releases has put the already fragile ceasefire in the territory in jeopardy. Israel Katz, the Israeli defence minister, put the army still stationed in the Gaza Strip on high alert. Hamas has so far freed 16 of a total of 33 Israeli hostages in five rounds under the first phase of the ongoing ceasefire. It has also released five Thai nationals, who were not included in the agreement. In return, Israel has released 583 Palestinian prisoners, out of a planned 1,904.

United States President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Bret Baier that it is possible to reach a deal with Iran and China, stressing that the former country is currently “frightened” and weakened. Trump answered that he had already spoken with China’s President Xi Jinping since he returned to the White House in January. “I love talking [to Xi], I’ve talked to him. I talk to his people too … His people come in all the time. We have a very good personal relationship,” stated Trump.

In regards to the future US policy towards Iran, Trump said Tehran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, adding that it can be prevented either with “bombs or a written piece of paper.” He concluded by stressing he preferred the latter option.

NN: They both will fold. Chins economy is about to go tits up. Iran fears the US military aligned with Israel as its greatest threat to its very survival

Car sales in China dropped 12% year over year in January, totaling 1.81 million units, the China Passenger Cas Association (CPCA) reported on Tuesday. Despite the overall drop, sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids grew 10.5%, now accounting for 41.2% of total sales. “The run-up to the Lunar New Year is traditionally a peak season for car purchases in rural areas, with demand coming mostly from first-time buyers and gasoline vehicles making up a larger proportion,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of CPCA.

Nick Note: One of the key things I look at for economic strength is car sales. When people are feeling fat and sassy they buy car sales go up . When economies starts slowing down car sales followed by real estate sales plunge. as you are seeing in China. Add another piece of the puzzle  debt. When people start getting in debt stress the amount of revolving credit picks up. Credit card delinquencies skyrocket and the malaise spreads throughout the economy.  Key to our oil trade besides the tariffs which are making headlines is what is oil consumption look like.  As we’ve talked about in our oil trade is the key oil consumption markers China. Its the largest importer of crude oil . And the Chinese  economy is in a major slow down. They’re crude oil imports are slowing. And its going to slow a lot more  as they enter into a major recession. That means that the world is rapidly going into an major oil oversupply situation. Right now there’s a lot of confusion on Tariffs  and their impact on oil prices. I am adamant the driver of oil pries will be consumption. Traffics are a secondary issue and will be watered down in negotiations.