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Goldman Sachs: U.S. Tariffs Will Have Short-Lived Limited Impact on Oil Prices

International oil and gas prices will see a limited short-term impact from President Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, according to Goldman Sachs. On Saturday, the U.S. Administration announced that additional tariffs would be implemented on February 4 on these countries. Canada and Mexico face 25% tariffs, with Canadian energy slapped with a lower, 10%, tariff. China, for its part, faces an additional 10% tariff across the board.

Despite President Trump’s move, Goldman Sachs kept its oil price forecasts for this year and next unchanged, as it expects minimal impact on global oil prices in the immediate term due to stable oil supply.
Moreover, Canadian tariffs have mostly been priced in already, the investment bank said in a note carried byreuters

However, Goldman Sachs expects near-term pain for gasoline prices, especially in the U.S. Midwest, where many refineries rely on Canadian crude. “Canadian oil producers are expected to eventually bear most of the burden of the tariff with a $3 to $4 a barrel wider-than-normal discount on Canadian crude given limited alternative export markets, with U.S. consumers of refined products bearing the remaining $2 to $3 a barrel burden,” the Wall Street bank said. “Canadian oil tariffs would risk unpopular, if temporary, gasoline price increases in the US Midwest,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent note quoted by Bloomberg. Following the tariff announcement, oil prices jumped in Asian trade on Monday. But this kneejerk reaction in the near term could turn into much lower oil prices in the medium term if full-blown trade wars depress economies, analysts say. “While the initial move on crude oil is upward, a cycle of tariffs and retaliatory actions by Canada, Mexico, China and perhaps others in the future could lead to a worldwide recession, causing oil prices to plummet,” Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates told CNBC, commenting on the opening salvo in what could be a new trade war.

NN audio file sanctions hysteria

 

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Iraqi Assembly Clears Long-Running Pay Dispute Over Kurdish Oil

Summary :   In 2023  based on IOC reports and gathered data, oil production in the Kurdistan Region fell short of 100 million barrels, marking a significant decline from the 158 million barrels produced across all fields in 2022. This represented a staggering 42 percent decrease in oil production and a corresponding 67 percent reduction in revenues compared to the previous year

  • Parliament backs hiking payments to firms in Kurdistan region
  • Move is a step toward resuming exports paused in early 2023

Iraq’s parliament passed a long-awaited plan to boost payments to oil companies in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, a step toward resuming exports from the area that were halted almost two years ago. The assembly on Sunday voted in favor of a plan approved by the cabinet in November that would amend the budget to allow Baghdad to pay out $16 a barrel for oil production and transportation, according to a statement. While that moved forward Iraq’s negotiations for a deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government, it was still below the $26 a barrel that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has said oil firms get from their current contracts in the region. Cost disputes have held up a full restart of flows from Kurdistan, keeping about half a million barrels a day of supply away from global markets. The exports were previously sent via pipeline to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in Turkey. Restarting the conduit may pose a dilemma for Baghdad, which is obligated to reduce crude output as part of an OPEC+ agreement, but has been struggling to adhere to promised cutbacks. Iraq is looking to increase revenues to rebuild its shattered economy. The impasse kicked off in March 2023 after Turkey halted the pipeline following an arbitration court’s order to pay Iraq $1.5 billion. Ankara, which claimed the pipe was shut because it needed repairs after two massive earthquakes in February that year, later said that it was ready for operations and it was up to Iraq to resume flows. That never happened as Iraq sought to take full control of the Kurdish output. The federal government and oil companies working in the country’s north, including DNO ASA, Genel Energy Plc and Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd., blamed each other for the delays.

NN: This production coming back on line puts 1million  barrels per day back into the market
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Mexico: Retaliatory measures in response to US tariffs

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that the country will implement “tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico’s interests” as part of the country’s “plan B” in response to United States President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on Mexican imports.

“We categorically reject the slander made by the White House against the Government of Mexico regarding alleged alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any interventionist intentions in our territory,” Sheinbaum wrote in a post on X, adding that “if such an alliance exists anywhere, it is in the arms depots of the United States, which sell high-powered weapons to these criminal groups, as demonstrated by the US Department of Justice in January of this year.” Additionally she stated that she had “instructed the Secretary of Economy to implement Plan B, which we have been working on, including tariff and non-tariff measures to defend Mexico’s interests.” Earlier, the White House stated, in a post on X, that the US tariffs on Mexico were meant to pressure the country to cooperate with the United States in the fight against drugs.

Trudeau: 25% tariffs on some American goods

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that Canada would introduce a 25% tariff on imports coming from the United States in response to United States President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods and energy resources. During a press conference, Trudeau said that the Canadian government would be imposing “far-reaching” 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of American goods. Tariffs on “30 billion dollars worth of goods” will start on Tuesday, followed by more tariffs in 21 days “to allow Canadian companies and supply chains to find alternatives.” The tariffs will impact goods such as beer, wine, bourbon, fruits and fruit juices, vegetables, perfumes, clothing and shoes. The prime minister stated that non-tariff measures are being considered related to critical minerals and procurement.

NN: Hi, it is amazing to me how simplistic people are in their thinking process.  Do they not realize that Donald Trump is in a  negotiation session. He’s hitting them hard to soften them up.  Do you really think Canada can stand  up to the United States? Do you really think they can afford to lose the US markets. Is there anything from Canada you got to have except maybe maple syrup. Let’s get real here anything that supplied by Canada can easily replaced by other suppliers. Take timber, the forest lands of Michigan are the same trees exported by Canada into the  US. The Canadian lumber industry  exists because of grennie wennie restrictions on logging on US lands.  Canada will suck shut in a week. Millions will be lose their jobs off.  In Mexico it will be worst. The Mexican economy cannot stand the loses of the US market. Car plants will be closed by week end.  You are talking about people who are a hop skipper and a  jump from starvation. The only home grown business they got are drugs. And the cartels ae not haring. In act they are killing off existing staff.

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Trump Vows Tariffs on Oil, Metals and Chips….. Trump to impose oil and gas tariffs by February 18

President Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on a wide range of imports in the coming months, including on steel, aluminum, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, as well as semiconductors — ramping up his threats to hit trading partners with new levies. He also said that the US would “be doing something very substantial” with tariffs targeting the European Union, in remarks Friday from the Oval Office where he was signing an executive order on deregulation.

Oil rose in late trading after Trump’s comments. West Texas Intermediate advanced to $73.81

Trump also said he was not concerned about warning from economists that tariffs would fuel price growth, a concern for voters which helped propel him back to the White House. “Tariffs don’t cause inflation,” Trump insisted. The president spoke hours after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump would follow through on his pledge to hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs and a separate 10% levy on goods from China on Saturday. Those tariffs are in response to what Trump says is a failure by those nations to help prevent the flow of undocumented migrants and illegal drugs, like fentanyl, across US borders. Trump has previously pledged sectoral tariffs — on chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum and copper — as a bid to reshape supply chains and force manufacturers to shift production to the US, but had not specified when they would take effect. He has also ordered reports, due April 1, on overall trade issues and tariffs, that could lead him to trigger new levies or to quit the continental trade pact he renegotiated with Canada and Mexico in his first term. And his administration is investigating whether China complied with a trade deal struck in his first term, setting the stage for tariffs against the world’s second largest economy. All those measures highlight how Trump is moving in his second term to enact a key plank of his trade agenda — remaking the US economy by imposing tariffs on a wide range of imports and on US allies and adversaries alike. Economists warn tariffs would raise the cost of imported materials used by US manufacturers, hike prices for American consumers already uneasy about inflation, and reduce global trade flows. Nevertheless, the US president is an avowed believer in tariffs, insisting that they will bring about a renaissance in domestic manufacturing. And he has touted tariffs as a source of revenue as he seeks to renew and expand expiring tax cuts and approve a host of other credits and benefit

Trump to impose oil and gas tariffs by February 18

United States President Donald Trump told the press on Friday that new tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and energy imports will be imposed,

with oil and gas tariffs set to take effect by February 18. Trump emphasized the move as a strategy to reduce trade deficits while mentioning his intention to bring pharmaceutical production back to the US.

Asked about today’s report that he will delay the imposition of tariffs to March 1, the president dismissed any possibility of China, Canada, or Mexico avoiding the new tariffs, stating, “Nothing can be done” to prevent them. Moreover, he accused China of “taking hundreds of billions of dollars” from the US before his presidency and criticized the European Union and Canada for unfair trade practices. He also suggested that tariffs could increase further.

NN this is a long one

I have many ways to talk to you to communicate with you. I try to choose what’s the best way to covey mission critical information to you. We have a very important event that occurred at the market close on Friday concerning our oil trade.  I’ve decided to do a lengthy Nick Note in this  breaking news story. I’m going to follow up in a BlackMask Market Update a detailed trade strategy as I collect my thought and tap my sources.  I will produce  this file over the weekend. In the mean time allow me to tell you what i now so far about  Trump’s announced coming  tariffs of 10% on China, and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.  There’s a lot of confusion in the marketplace about what products these tariffs  will include, When they will be imposed and at what percentages. Of particular interest to us are the announced tariffs on oil. On Friday their was a lot of confusing and inaccurate reporting. And we saw a lot of market gyrations.   Let me give you what we know so far. Trump announced as of  February 18th he is going to put a 10% tariff on Canadian Oil imports into the United States. Most of the Canadian oil flowing to the US is Western Canadian Select. Which is mostly  produced in Alberta and is from the vast  oil sands deposit.  Canadian oil imports are 3.5 million barrels per day. Most is delivered to the northern Midwest refineries. I want to look at the price first. The most recent high  was set on January 16th when  Brent hit $81 a barrel.  Western Canadian Select hit $66 a barrel. As you can see WCA  trades at a discount because its landlocked not a lot of buyers and it’s a a bitter or sour  heavy crude.  A lot of refineries can’t take this messy crude. I have posted a chart below of the most recent price action after the $ 66 peak and before trump’s announcement of tariffs.  The last shipments came in a $60.38 a barrel.

The 10% tariff if even  instituted and passed down to the buyers takes you back to $66 a barrel.  Some players believe that means Brent Crude oil is going back to $81 a barrel. A simplistic assessment at best. The next chart shows you daily US domestics oil consumption.

United States Oil Consumption

The US consumes a little bit south of 20 million barrels a day of crude. Off its 2019 peek. Which means that the Canadian Oil represents at best only 20% of the US market. So do the math a 10% increase in price of 20% of the total  oil consumed translates into $2.50 increase at the most of the total market. That takes you to at best $77.50 Bent off the pre tariff lows of $74.87 at the end of January. And we closed at $76.30 on Friday. If you factor in Algo trader hysteria at most you’re looking at is a potential $5 a barrel temporary increase in  price. I want to short the shit out of that action. And Canada cannot afford a self imposed embargo on its oil exports. They will fold faster then a pair of duces against 3 aces. All they got to do is shut down the border crossing of illegals’ and bust the Fentanyl smugglers.

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Canada vows retaliation if Trump imposes tariffs

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that if US President Donald Trump chooses to implement any tariff affecting Canada, the country will be ready to respond similarly. In a Council on Canada-US Relations meeting, the prime minister stressed that any Canadian response would be “purposeful, forceful, and immediate,” indicating that all options are considered. He highlighted that such US tariffs could increase costs for American consumers, particularly in sectors like oil, automotive, and agriculture.

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Trump May Exclude Oil From Canada and Mexico Tariffs

President Donald Trump may exclude crude oil from the tariff shock he is preparing to deliver to Canada and Mexico this Sunday. The tariffs are Trump’s way to strong-arm the U.S. neighbors into stemming the flow of fentanyl into the country.

“They send us oil — we’ll see,” Trump told media on Thursday evening, as quoted by the Financial Times. “It depends on what the price is. If the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly — which they don’t.”

In separate comments earlier in the week, however, Trump said “We don’t need the products that they have. We have all the oil that you need.” Canada and Mexico are the biggest suppliers of crude oil to the United States, with Canadian exports close to 4 million barrels daily and Mexican exports around 730,000 barrels daily. Because of the prominence of both as trading partners in energy many analysts have argued that Trump’s threats are only a tactic to get Mexico and Canada to take care of immigration and fentanyl smuggling. “We’ll be announcing the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a number of reasons,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. “Number one is the people that have poured into our country so horribly and so much. Number two are the drugs fentanyl and everything else that have come into the country. Number three are the massive subsidies that we’re giving to Canada and to Mexico in the form of deficits.”

Another reason Trump is likely to exclude oil from the tariffs is the fact that if he goes ahead and doesn’t, this would affect retail fuel prices in the United States and it will not be a favorable effect. One of Trump’s campaign promises was to bring prices at the pump down, so tariffing Canadian and Mexican crude would go against this promise.

BlackMask podcast has been posted Titled: Trump’s Oil Tariffs
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Trump confirms 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada

United States President Donald Trump told journalists on Thursday that his administration will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.The announcement came just days after the White House suggested that new trade restrictions were under consideration. The tariffs are set to take effect on February 1. The president also said he will decide tonight on tariffs for oil imports from Mexico and Canada. Both Mexico and Canada have announced retaliatory measures in case the US imposes such tariffs. Nevertheless, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum revealed this week that she does not believe the US will impose tariffs on her country.

NN: the art of the deal. negotiations have begun
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Trump Keeps World Waiting on Tariffs, Tries to Hash Out a Plan

  • President surprised many by not imposing tariffs right away
  • His team is still debating basic questions like who to charge

President Donald Trump’s tariff plans are the great unknown in the global economy right now — and it’s partly because his team is still trying to figure out what to do. Tariffs were so central to Trump’s victorious election campaign that trade experts, and even some of his allies, were surprised when they went missing in action during his first days back in the White House. The president threatened new duties on Mexico, Canada and China – but he didn’t actually impose any, even as he was taking steps to speed energy production, curb immigration and reshape the federal workforce. Instead, Trump’s Day One trade memo instructed his team to study unfair trade practices globally, and investigate whether Beijing had complied with a 2020 deal. A sharp turn to protectionism in the US has the potential to upend economies and markets everywhere, so governments, businesses and investors around the world are desperate for a roadmap. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell captured the uncertainty at his press conference on Wednesday, saying that the range of possible tariff impacts is “very, very wide.” But Trump’s slower-than-expected rollout stems from unresolved questions within the new administration, according to people briefed on the internal deliberations. The Trump team is still debating the fundamentals of tariff policy — like whether the taxes should be imposed across the board or targeted at specific countries and industries, and whether they should be reciprocal. Along with a lack of consensus among the administration’s economic team, they’re also short key staff. Most nominees are still awaiting Senate confirmation. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick to be Commerce secretary, and Jamieson Greer, the nominee to be trade representative, may not be confirmed for several weeks, and there are few political appointees at either agency. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has told allies that his number one priority in 2025 is passing a sweeping tax package. All of this means that tariff discussions are currently taking place among a small circle of advisers already at the White House, including Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, trade adviser Peter Navarro and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the people said.

On the campaign trail, Trump said he’d use tariffs to raise revenue, slash America’s trade deficit and bring industry back to the country. He promised a 10% to 20% charge on all imported goods, as well as tariffs as high as 60% for China. Since his November election win, he’s also threatened a 25% tax on products from Canada and Mexico, the two biggest US trade partners. On the universal tariffs and the ones slated for China, the Trump team is not close at all to making a decision, according to people briefed on the discussions. For Canada and Mexico, Trump set a deadline of Feb. 1, and trade experts anticipate that he’ll announce the promised tariffs around that date. But because they’re unlikely to take effect for up to two weeks after an announcement, both countries would theoretically have time to negotiate with the White House, cave to Trump’s demands — he wants tighter curbs on the flow of people and drugs across borders –- and avoid the tariffs altogether.It’s a key question about Trump’s trade plans more broadly: How many of the tariffs he floats are really intended as bargaining chips to help achieve other goals?