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Trump readies matching tariffs on trade partners

President Donald Trump is taking additional with plans to sign an order as soon as Wednesday that would require that U.S. tariffs on imports match the tax rates charged by other countries.

“It’s time to be reciprocal,” Trump told reporters earlier this week. “You’ll be hearing that word a lot. Reciprocal. If they charge us, we charge them.”

The president had suggested that the order would come on Tuesday or Wednesday. But when Tuesday passed without the tariffs being officially announced, Trump was asked if he would sign the order on Wednesday and Trump answered: “We’ll see what happens.” As Trump has unleashed a series of tariffs after being in power for less than a month, he has fully taken ownership of the path of the U.S. economy. It’s a bet that his economic ideas can eventually deliver meaningful results for voters, even if by Trump’s own admission the import taxes could involve some financial pain in the form of inflation and economic disruptions.  By signing the order, Trump would fulfill his long-standing pledge to raise taxes on most imported goods, a clear break with his recent White House predecessors who saw tariffs as either targeted tools to use strategically or barriers worth lowering.  Trump put 10% tariffs on China over its contributions to the production of the illicit drug fentanyl, and China has taken retaliatory measures. He said he is ready if necessary on March 1 — after a 30-day suspension — to put tariffs on Mexico and Canada over his belief they should do more to fight illegal immigration and drug smuggling. On Monday, he closed the exemptions to his 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum, in addition to raising the tariff rates on aluminum. He has also talked about additional taxes on imported autos, computer chips and pharmaceutical drugs. Many of America’s dominant trading partners are preparing for an economic rupture in reaction to Trump’s possible actions. Multiple Trump aides have privately said that Trump’s long-standing goal with tariffs has been reciprocity. But Trump has also portrayed tariffs as a diplomatic tool to try to force Canada and Mexico to spend more resources on stopping illegal immigration and drug trafficking into the United States. He also suggested repeatedly that tariffs would be a source of revenues that could offset his planned income tax cuts. “Of course, even if President Trump views reciprocal tariffs as an alternative to more sweeping measures at the moment, we are entering only the fourth week of a four-year presidential term and it seems likely there will be many further tariff announcements,” the investment bank’s analysts wrote.

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Russia Says Sanctions Shouldn’t Hinder Oil Trade With India

U.S. sanctions against Russia’s oil exports and trade should not hinder Russian energy trade with India, Russia’s first deputy energy minister, Pavel Sorokin, said on Tuesday. Indian refiners are scrambling for alternatives after the U.S. sanctions designated hundreds of tankers, as well as oil traders, last month. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the bans on Russian oil in the West, India has become a key buyer of Russian crude, alongside China. Russia, for its part, became the single biggest oil supplier to India, the world’s third-largest oil importer. Now the sanctions have reduced the availability of non-sanctioned tankers to carry out the trades. For India, which imports more than 80% of the crude it consumes daily, the costs are spiking and the cheap Russian barrels are disappearing as Indian refiners steer clear of tankers explicitly sanctioned by the U.S.  “We believe energy trade shouldn’t be hindered by any politics,” Russia’s Sorokin told the audience at the India Energy Week conference on Tuesday. “Our relationship with India is based on economic pragmatism,” Sorokin said, as carried by Reuters. It is too early to assess the impact of the U.S. sanctions on the Russia-India oil trade, the Russian official added. “More time is needed to assess these things, but we believe that constructive relationships will continue to be successful,” Sorokin was quoted as saying. For now, India has received clarification from the U.S. that the Russian oil tankers sanctioned last month are allowed to discharge their crude at Indian ports until February 27. While the U.S. clarification could be a relief for India for this month, it is not certain how trade will proceed going forward. Indian refiners are already scrambling for supply for arrival after February.  India will continue to buy Russian oil if it is sold below the $60 per barrel price cap and delivered on non-sanctioned tankers and without any involvement of sanctioned companies or individuals, Indian officials have said.

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Oil Prices Defy Trump’s Trade Tariffs

Oil prices climbed despite the real threat of a global trade war erupting after U.S. President Donald Trump announced wide-ranging tariffs on U.S. imports,  this time targeting steel and aluminium. On Monday, Trump announced he will impose a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the U.S., with Canada likely to be hardest hit. Trump also talked about reciprocal tariffs on all countries that tax imports from the U.S., although he did not give the specifics, “If they charge us, we charge them,” Trump said.

Brent crude for April delivery was up to $77.00 per barrel at 8.00 .am ET while WTI crude for March delivery trade at  73.41. It appears that Trump’s end-game is to keep the markets on their toes, but that strategy might not be working, this time around.

“It’s tariff uncertainty which is the name of the game. This affects risk appetite in general and has spillover effects into oil,” said Harry Tchilinguiran at Onyx Capital. “After last week’s declines, some people may be buying into the dip.”

Trump’s latest tariff threats come at a time when the trade balance between the U.S. and its biggest trading partner has been tilting against it.  Canada’s energy exports to the United States surged in the latter part of 2024, helping the country record its biggest surplus with its main trading partner since 2022. Crude oil exports jumped amid a weakening Canadian dollar as well as traders stockpiling inventories ahead of Trump’s tariffs. The trade surplus widened to C$11.3 billion in December, up from C$8.2 billion previously while crude exports to the U.S. jumped 11.8% in the final quarter. Nearly 76% of all exports by Canada went to the U.S. compared to 62% of all imports coming from the U.S. Last year, the value of Canada’s imports and exports with the U.S. surpassed the C$1 trillion mark for a third straight year.

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Trump gives Hamas ultimatum on hostage release

US President Donald Trump  gave Palestinian militant organization Hamas an ultimatum: release all remaining hostages being held in Gaza or face harsh consequences. Trump spoke out in favour of terminating the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, which went into effect on January 19 for an initial six weeks,

if all remaining hostages are not released by “Saturday at 12 o’clock.” If that does not happen, “all hell is going to break out,” Trump said at the White House in Washington.

Trump stressed that the decision lies with Israel. “I’m speaking for myself. Israel can override it,” he said. Trump did not specify what consequences Hamas might have to fear from the US, just saying “They’ll find out what I mean” when asked to expand on his comments. Trump went on to say that he did not expect for Hamas to comply with his demand. “I don’t think they’re going to [comply] … I think a lot of the hostages are dead. I think it’s a great, it’s a great human tragedy.” Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida on Monday said the group was indefinitely postponing the release of the next set of Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, saying Israel had failed to abide by the terms of the ceasefire agreement. Three more hostages had been scheduled to be freed on Saturday in exchange for dozens of Palestinian prisoners as part of the deal. This will only be possible if Israel adheres to the agreement again, Hamas said. Israel has repeatedly rejected accusations that it is violating the agreement. Israeli government spokesman David Mencer has in particular denied that Israel has blocked aid deliveries to the Gaza Strip. The halt to the hostage releases has put the already fragile ceasefire in the territory in jeopardy. Israel Katz, the Israeli defence minister, put the army still stationed in the Gaza Strip on high alert. Hamas has so far freed 16 of a total of 33 Israeli hostages in five rounds under the first phase of the ongoing ceasefire. It has also released five Thai nationals, who were not included in the agreement. In return, Israel has released 583 Palestinian prisoners, out of a planned 1,904.

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Trump thinks deals possible with Iran, China

United States President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Bret Baier that it is possible to reach a deal with Iran and China, stressing that the former country is currently “frightened” and weakened. Trump answered that he had already spoken with China’s President Xi Jinping since he returned to the White House in January. “I love talking [to Xi], I’ve talked to him. I talk to his people too … His people come in all the time. We have a very good personal relationship,” stated Trump.

In regards to the future US policy towards Iran, Trump said Tehran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, adding that it can be prevented either with “bombs or a written piece of paper.” He concluded by stressing he preferred the latter option.

NN: They both will fold. Chins economy is about to go tits up. Iran fears the US military aligned with Israel as its greatest threat to its very survival
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China’s car sales drop 12% in January

Car sales in China dropped 12% year over year in January, totaling 1.81 million units, the China Passenger Cas Association (CPCA) reported on Tuesday. Despite the overall drop, sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids grew 10.5%, now accounting for 41.2% of total sales. “The run-up to the Lunar New Year is traditionally a peak season for car purchases in rural areas, with demand coming mostly from first-time buyers and gasoline vehicles making up a larger proportion,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of CPCA.

Nick Note: One of the key things I look at for economic strength is car sales. When people are feeling fat and sassy they buy car sales go up . When economies starts slowing down car sales followed by real estate sales plunge. as you are seeing in China. Add another piece of the puzzle  debt. When people start getting in debt stress the amount of revolving credit picks up. Credit card delinquencies skyrocket and the malaise spreads throughout the economy.  Key to our oil trade besides the tariffs which are making headlines is what is oil consumption look like.  As we’ve talked about in our oil trade is the key oil consumption markers China. Its the largest importer of crude oil . And the Chinese  economy is in a major slow down. They’re crude oil imports are slowing. And its going to slow a lot more  as they enter into a major recession. That means that the world is rapidly going into an major oil oversupply situation. Right now there’s a lot of confusion on Tariffs  and their impact on oil prices. I am adamant the driver of oil pries will be consumption. Traffics are a secondary issue and will be watered down in negotiations.

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TD Bank Seeks to Raise $14 Billion in Schwab Stake Exit

Toronto-Dominion Bank expects to raise about $14 billion through the sale of its entire stake in Charles Schwab Corp. as part of a corporate overhaul in the wake of its historic US money-laundering settlement. Toronto-Dominion will sell 184.7 million shares of Schwab’s common stock, representing 10.1% economic ownership, it said in a statement Monday. Schwab has agreed to buy back $1.5 billion of its shares from TD. Canada’s second-largest bank reached a settlement in October with the US Department of Justice and bank regulators over its failure to catch money laundering at several American branches. Toronto-Dominion agreed to pay almost $3.1 billion in fines and other penalties and last month said it was accelerating its chief executive officer-transition process, tapping Raymond Chun to step into the role two months earlier than initially planned. “As part of our strategic review, we have been evaluating capital allocation and have made the decision to exit our Schwab investment,” Chun said in the statement. Toronto-Dominion expects to generate about $14 billion in proceeds through the share sale, Chun told bank employees in an internal memo Monday morning seen by Bloomberg. “In just under five years, this investment has generated a very strong return, and we believe this is the right time to reallocate the capital,” he said in the memo. The Canadian lender acquired its ownership stake in 2020 as part of a transaction to sell its interest in online brokerage TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. to Schwab. It sold 40.5 million Schwab shares in August, trimming its previous 12.3% stake to raise about $2.5 billion to help cover the cost of fines in the money-laundering probes. Toronto-Dominion said it plans to use C$8 billion of the proceeds to repurchase its stock, and will invest the balance of the proceeds in the company’s businesses. A representative for Schwab declined to comment, citing regulatory reasons.

Chun has previously said Toronto-Dominion’s ownership of Schwab shares is separate from its agreement with the firm to make sweep-deposit accounts available to Schwab clients. With sweep programs, uninvested cash in brokerage accounts is automatically transferred into higher-interest accounts.

nn: what they forget to tell you is the reason they pay slightly higher rates is because of much higher risk. its party time for now. but another stock market, real estate, high tech wipe out is coming.
they have yet to explain the tens of billions of drug money they laundered…. by accident….
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Trump says he spoke to Putin on ending Ukraine war

United States President Donald Trump told New York Post aboard Air Force One that he had already spoken to his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin on the phone. Trump revealed that Putin expressed willingness to end the conflict in Ukraine. “He wants to see people stop dying … All those dead people. Young, young, beautiful people. They’re like your kids, two million of them – and for no reason,” stated Trump. The US president did not want to say how many times he spoke to Putin. Both before and after his return to the White House, Trump repeatedly vowed he would bring the war in Ukraine to an end and pinned responsibility for the conflict’s outbreak on his predecessor Joe Biden.

nn: everybody will soon go home unhappy
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Israeli military says it is expanding West Bank operation

JERUSALEM, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Israeli security forces have expanded a military operation to Nur Shams in the West Bank, a military spokesperson said on Sunday, announcing the expansion of a military operation in the occupied territory. The military, police and intelligence services launched a counter-terrorism operation in Jenin on January 21, described by officials as a “large-scale and significant military operation”. The Israeli military said several militants had been killed and a number of wanted suspect detained in the operation.

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Iran supreme leader criticizes proposed nuclear talks with US, upending push to negotiation

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran’s supreme leader said Friday that negotiations with America “are not intelligent, wise or honorable” after President Donald Trump floated nuclear talks with Tehran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also suggested that “there should be no negotiations with such a government,” but stopped short of issuing a direct order not to engage with Washington. Khamenei’s remarks upend months of signals from Tehran to the United States that it wanted to negotiate over its rapidly advancing nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of crushing economic sanctions worth billions of dollars. Following Khamenei’s comments, the Iranian rial sunk to a record low of 872,000 rials to $1 in aftermarket trading.What happens next remains unclear, particularly as reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian promised as recently as Thursday to enter into a dialogue with the West.

Khamenei’s remarks to air force officers in Tehran appeared to contradict his own earlier remarks in August that opened the door to talks. However, the 85-year-old Khamenei has always been careful with remarks about negotiating with the West. That includes balancing the demands of reformists within the country who want the talks against hard-line elements within Iran’s theocracy, including the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. Khamenei noted that Trump unilaterally withdrew from the earlier nuclear deal under which Iran drastically limited its enrichment of uranium and overall stockpile of the material, in exchange for crushing sanctions being removed. “The Americans did not uphold their end of the deal,” Khamenei said. “The very person who is in office today tore up the agreement. He said he would, and he did.” He added: “This is an experience we must learn from. We negotiated, we gave concessions, we compromised— but we did not achieve the results we aimed for. And despite all its flaws, the other side ultimately violated and destroyed the agreement.” It’s not clear what sparked Khamenei’s remarks. However, they come after Trump suggested he wanted to deal with Tehran, even while signing an executive order to reimpose his “maximum pressure” approach to Iran on Tuesday.“I’m going to sign it, but hopefully we’re not going to have to use it very much,” he said from the Oval Office. “We will see whether or not we can arrange or work out a deal with Iran.”

“We don’t want to be tough on Iran. We don’t want to be tough on anybody,” Trump added. “But they just can’t have a nuclear bomb.”

Trump followed with another online message on Wednesday, saying: “Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens, ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED.” “I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper,” he wrote on Truth Social. “We should start working on it immediately, and have a big Middle East Celebration when it is signed and completed.” He did not elaborate.

As recently as Thursday, Pezeshkian suggested Iran could open itself up to even more inspections from the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.“They (can) come and inspect one hundred times more since we are not supposed to go after” a nuclear weapon, Pezeshkian told foreign diplomats. Iranian diplomats have long pointed to Khamenei’s preachings as a binding fatwa, or religious edict, that Iran won’t build an atomic bomb. Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. However, it now enriches uranium to 60% purity — a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Iranian officials increasingly suggest Tehran could pursue an atomic bomb. U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.

NN: Iran is playing a dangerous game here. Which under Trump could end up in the regimes total destruction.