Crude oil prices trended lower in midmorning Asian trade today, pressured by the first results from the U.S. elections and the latest weekly U.S. oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $73.68 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $70.26 per barrel. Both were down by over 2.4% from the market’s opening. U.S. yields and the U.S. dollar are both trading higher,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters. “This in turn is weighing on the crude oil price which has had a good run in recent sessions,” he added. “US foreign policy is shaping up to be a potential factor for oil markets in the near term,” especially with regard to Iran, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar told Bloomberg. He added that “markets now must consider whether OPEC+ will perennially be forced to push their decision to reverse their voluntary oil production cuts.” Bloomberg meanwhile reported that oil traders are piling into bullish bets in case of a spike in Middle Eastern tensions that could lead to much higher oil prices. The report cited data showing that on Monday alone, some 10 million barrels worth of call options for December were traded at a price spread of $90/$100 per barrel. The expiry date for the contracts is November 15. The Monday trade volume is an extension of a rather bullish October: interest in call options on higher oil prices reached a record high last month, per Bloomberg, which also noted that even after the price retreat following Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran, premiums on call options versus put options remain at the highest since Russia’s invasion in the Ukraine in February 2022.
Trump clinches victory in Wisconsin to become president…..GOP wins control of the Senate
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is projected to have secured the electoral votes needed to become the next president of the United States, following his victory in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, Fox News reported. The state brought Trump an additional 10 electoral votes, raising his total to 277 and surpassing the 270 needed to secure the presidency. The Republican candidate is expected to make an address soon from Florida.
GOP wins control of the Senate
The Republican Party has gained control of the US Senate, according to projections released late Tuesday. The shift follows key victories on Tuesday night, including in Nebraska, Texas, and Bernie Moreno’s win in Ohio over Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, according to projections by the Associated Press. With this majority, Republicans are expected to prioritize tax cuts, limit regulatory oversight, and support conservative judicial appointments.
Trump in the lead in all swing states
TRUUMP PULLED OFF THE IMPOSSIBLE
He did the impossible. He got the whole enchilada.
- THE PRESIDENCY
- THE HOUSE
- THE SENATE
Late season storm could disrupt 4 mln barrels of US oil output
HOUSTON, A late season tropical storm predicted to intensify into a category 2 hurricane in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico this week could reduce U.S. oil production by about 4 million barrels, researchers said. Storm Rafael was in the Caribbean Sea late on Monday and expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico on a track that takes it through prime oil-producing areas. Winds could reach 100 miles per hour (161 kph) on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.
addition, Candela the company behind the vehicle says it can dramatically reduce energy consumption compared with other regular fast vessels.U.S. oil producers could lose between 3.1 million and 4.9 million barrels of oil, said energy analytics firm Earth Science Associates using a model that estimates volume losses to past storm intensity and track. Natural gas production losses could range between 4.56 billion and 6.39 billion cubic feet, according to its model. The upper end assumes structural damage that prolongs shut-ins, said Tony Dupont, Earth Science’s chief operating officer. Shell (SHEL.L), opens new tab and Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab on Monday said they were moving non-essential personnel to shore from several platforms ahead of the storm. Shell said it was pausing some drilling activity but there was impact on production. Chevron also said routine oil and gas production was not affected. Earth Science’s model calls for Rafael to have the second-largest impact of this year’s storms on offshore production, behind hurricane Francine, which shut in up to 42% of oil and 52% of natural gas production.
Raphael, the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is on a track would take it through areas of the Gulf that are heavy with oil and gas platforms. The season runs through Nov. 30. There have been 10 named Atlantic storms formed this year since September 24, a record for the period, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
Iraq’s Islamic Resistance launches drone attack on Israel
The Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq said on Tuesday that it launched three drones toward Israel overnight, targeting Israel’s port city of Haifa. Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) shared that it shot down a drone launched from the east, a term that the military usually use for attacks coming from Iraq. Additionally, the IDF stated that its air forces intercepted a drone launched from Lebanon by Hezbollah.
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Shock Poll Showing Harris Leading in Iowa Energizes State Democrats
- State’s six-week abortion ban seen as driving political shift
- Neither party has spent much in Iowa in presidential campaign “Don’t Sleep On Iowa,” is more than just a motto on her blue t-shirt, Iowa House Democratic leader Jennifer Konfrst shouted to Kamala Harris supporters gathered in the basement of a local party headquarters in Waukee. It’s political intuition that is proving to be prescient, she said Sunday, pointing to a respected Iowa pollster’s bombshell findings this weekend that Donald Trump is losing to Harris in a state he previously won twice by comfortable margins. “Who is fired up from the Iowa poll!” Konfrst, 50, exhorted to dozens of cheering Democrats. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer, which has a nationally respected track record, shows Harris up 3 percentage points, 47% to 44%. This comes as other recent Iowa polls have shown Trump with sizable leads — and Trump and other Republicans are bashing Selzer’s poll as an outlier. “It was a shock, believe you me, when I went into the office after the first night of interviewing.” Selzer told Bloomberg television Monday. “No one would expect Kamala Harris would have leap-frogged over Donald Trump into the lead.” NN: This is a warning sign to me.
Another Israeli army officer arrested over alleged intel leak
An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officer was arrested amid the investigation into the leaking of intelligence documents from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Office, which may have affected a hostage deal, Israeli media reported on Monday. On Sunday, the Rishon Le-Zion Magistrates’ Court revealed that it had arrested Eliezer Feldstein, Netanyahu’s media adviser, as a central suspect in the case, accusing him of disclosing top-secret information with national security implications to European media. The court said that documents leaking raised “concerns of serious harm to national security and a danger to the sources of the information,” but also may have harmed “the goal of releasing the hostages” held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Gaza intel scandal sends shockwaves across Israel
Arrests, a gag order and a leak that could’ve harmed hostage talks Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing as it emerged that one of his aides was under investigation after a judge loosened a gag order on Sunday.
An aide to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is among the suspects arrested for an alleged security breach involving “classified and sensitive” intelligence taken illegally from Israeli Defense Forces, an Israeli judge said on Sunday. The arrests of four suspects, including Netanyahu spokesperson Eli Feldstein, are at the center of what is likely to be the biggest scandal inside the Israeli government since the beginning of the war in Gaza.
- The alleged leak of top secret information could have caused “significant damage” to efforts to free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, the judge said.
The big question: whether Netanyahu knew or was involved in the leaks, which appear to be intended to influence Israeli public opinion to support Netanyahu’s hardline position about a deal to release hostages being held by Hamas and establish a ceasefire in Gaza.
- The episode was under a gag order for several days until a judge release some details on Friday.
Israeli officials said that a few weeks ago the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) asked the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, to open an investigation after a top secret raw intelligence report was leaked to the German tabloid, Bild.
- The Bild published a story in early September that referred to a document that was allegedly drafted by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and contained Hamas’ strategy about the hostage and ceasefire deal negotiations.
- A joint investigation by the Shin Bet, the Israeli police and the IDF has led to the arrest of several suspects.
- The investigation focused on a “concern of a security breach due to the unlawful provision of classified information” that has put at risk “sensitive information and intelligence sources, as well as harmed the efforts of achieving the goals of the war in the Gaza Strip,” according to information the judge released for publication on Friday.
- Four suspects, including Feldstein and some members of the security establishment, have been arrested and interrogated so far, the judge said on Sunday.
Netanyahu denied his office was involved. “No one from the Prime Minister’s Office was questioned or arrested,” he said in a statement.
- He added that there was no leak from the Prime Minister’s Office and accused other government bodies, which he didn’t name, of leaking classified information.
- “Nobody else was questioned. I wonder why,” Netanyahu said.
Israeli officials say one of the suspects is Netanyahu’s closest aides.
- The Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported the aide, who worked closely with Netanyahu since the beginning of the war, participated in sensitive security meetings and was exposed to highly classified information even though he failed has security background check.
- As a result, he didn’t have the security clearance needed to work at the Prime Minister’s Office and wasn’t officially hired by the office.
- At the same time, he actively advised Netanyahu.
The scandal will likely deepen the mistrust and tension between Netanyahu and the IDF and intelligence services, which has been growing since the security failures around the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.
- It also comes as Netanyahu battles Israel’s legal system and the attorney general. In just a few weeks the prime minister is expected to take the stand for the first time in his corruption trial..
NN: This is a major AHHHHH shit and changes everything
Iran condemns US for B-52 bombers deployment
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei condemned the United States on Monday for its deployment of B-52 Stratofortress strategic bombers in the Middle East, calling it a “destabilizing presence” in the region. “We have always believed that the presence of America in the region is a destabilizing presence,” Baghaei said during a news conference and claimed that the bombers’ deployment won’t affect Iran’s “resolve to defend itself.” Pentagon announced the B-52 bombers’ deployment last Friday, warning that the US will take “measures” to defend its people “should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region.” A day later, the US also warned Iran that it will not be able to contain Israel if Iran decides to carry out another retaliatory attack.
Oil Rises as OPEC+ Delays Output Hike and Iran Steps Up Rhetoric….. OPEC chief remains optimistic on global oil demand
- OPEC+ postponed its planned production increase, prioritizing price support over regaining market share.
- This decision caused a surge in oil prices, although some analysts believe the increase may not be sustainable.
- The long-term impact of OPEC+’s strategy remains uncertain, with analysts predicting a potential market surplus in 2025 if production cuts aren’t maintained.
Oil advanced after OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month and tensions escalated again in the Middle East. Brent rose as much as 2% to more than $74 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed toward $71. The producer group had intended to begin returning 180,000 barrels a day from next month, but they will now keep supply restrained for the rest of the year. The group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia had intended to begin a series of monthly production increases by adding 180,000 barrels a day from December, but they will now keep supply restrained through that month, according to a statement posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday.
“Market conditions won out,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of oil research at Onyx Commodities Ltd. “OPEC+ showed it couldn’t ignore the current macroeconomic economic realities centered on China and Europe, which point to weaker oil demand growth.”
“For me, the impact is more important on sentiment than the numbers,” said Amrita Sen, director of research at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “The market has been incorrectly viewing OPEC+ as wanting to flood the market to regain market share,” but instead, their “primary focus remains keeping oil inventories under control.”
Meanwhile, Iran escalated its rhetoric against Israel with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning of a “crushing response” in a speech on Saturday. The Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran told allies an attack would come after Tuesday’s US presidential vote but before January’s inauguration and wouldn’t be limited to missiles and drones, as two previous strikes were.
“Concerns that OPEC was poised to oversupply a fragile market have been weighing significantly on sentiment,” RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft said in a Nov. 3 note. “A continuing cycle of retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran raises the risk that oil facilities will be caught in the crosshairs.” Oil prices have become increasingly volatile, with concerns of an oversupply next year and lackluster demand in top importer China weighing against unrest in the Middle East, which supplies about a third of the world’s crude. While futures fell early last week after the strike by Israel on Iran avoided energy infrastructure, they later pared the decline on concerns the move lower was too strong. The oil market has a number of key events on the horizon this week, including the US election and a meeting of China’s top legislative body. Saudi Aramco is also scheduled to release its official prices for December, with the producer expected to lower its rates for Asia, according to a Bloomberg survey.
OPEC chief remains optimistic on global oil demand
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary General Haitham al Ghais said Monday that the group’s demand is currently buoyant in both the short and long term. Speaking at ADIPEC in Abu Dabi, Al Ghais expressed optimism about the global situation and dismissed concerns about a rebound in demand. At the same time, Al Ghais highlighted the need for balanced, practical energy policies that address energy security and emissions goals. He stressed that collaboration between the Global North and South is essential, noting that “no one-size-fits-all solution” exists for global energy needs.
NN AUDIO FILE