BlackMask Breaking News

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Thursday that it carried out an airstrike targeting Hezbollah command centers and munitions warehouses in Syria, near the border with Lebanon. They did not the number of casualties. The IDF said the facilities were also used by Hezbollah’s special operations unit, the Radwan Force. The Israeli military also claimed its strike was part of a larger action aiming to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure supporting weapon transfer from Iran through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — America’s presidential election next week comes just after Iran marks the 45th anniversary of the 1979 U.S. Embassy hostage crisis — and for many, tensions between Tehran and Washington feel just as high as they did then. Iran remains locked in the Mideast wars roiling the region, with its allies — militant groups and fighters of its self-described “Axis of Resistance” — battered as Israel presses its war in the Gaza Strip targeting Hamas and its invasion of Lebanon amid devastating attacks against Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran still appears to be assessing damage from Israel’s strikes on the Islamic Republic last Saturday in response to two Iranian ballistic missile attacks.

Iran’s currency, the rial, hovers near record lows against the dollar, battered by international sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear program of enriching uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels.

In public spaces, women still openly defy Iran’s mandatory law on the headscarf, or hijab, a result of the mass demonstrations over the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini that still haunts the country. That has left a feel of fatalism among some on the streets of the capital, Tehran, as Americans cast ballots for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Both candidates have either undertaken or expressed tough stances on Iran. In 2018, Trump unilaterally pulled America out of Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers, setting off years of attacks across the Middle East even before Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Trump has been briefed on Iranian plots to retaliate against him, as well over his decision to launch a 2020 drone strike that killed Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad. Harris, meanwhile, vowed at the September presidential debate that she would always “give Israel the ability to defend itself, in particular as it relates to Iran and any threat that Iran and its proxies pose to Israel.”

Oil rebounded with traders focused on Middle East tensions and tightening US crude stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate advanced 2.1% to settle near $69 a barrel after tumbling over the previous two sessions. Brent settled above $72, climbing 2%. While one Israeli minister suggested that the war with Hezbollah could be over by year-end, the country’s military chief vowed to strike Iran “very hard” should the OPEC producer launch another attack.

“We think the oil market has relaxed too quickly,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford said in a note. “We see the risk of an escalating series of attacks over an extended period, with no immediate prospect of either military or diplomatic resolution.”

Also supporting prices was a government report showing US crude inventories shrank by 515,000 barrels last week. While that was a smaller drop than projected by an industry group, it was more bullish than Bloomberg users’ estimate of an 871,000-barrel increase. US gasoline and distillate inventories also fell. Looking ahead, all eyes are on OPEC+’s plans to gradually revive production from December, with traders split on whether the alliance will press ahead.

Reuters reported that OPEC+ nations could delay plans to revive oil production in December, citing unidentified sources.

Commodity and financial markets are also gearing up for two crucial events next week — the US election and a meeting of China’s top legislative body, with investors watching for any additional stimulus efforts to revive the economy. The Asian nation is the world’s biggest crude importer. NN: Oil Is A Screaming BUY!!

• Recent Israeli strikes on Iranian air defenses near energy facilities raised concerns but avoided direct oil infrastructure.
• StanChart notes that damage to air defenses on Iran’s energy infrastructure has increased their vulnerability to future attacks.
• Standard Chartered thinks that the market underestimated the risk of an attack on Iranian energy infrastructure after the U.S. Presidential elections.

Two days ago, benchmark crude oil futures fell by their largest one-day margin in more than two years after Israel launched limited retaliatory attacks on Iran but largely avoided energy facilities, thus easing fears of disruptions to global supplies. Israel mainly bombed air defense systems and missile production sites in three Iranian provinces, with analysts saying the lack of strikes on oil infrastructure or nuclear facilities leaves the door open for both sides to de-escalate the conflict. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei toned down the war rhetoric by refraining from talks about immediate retaliation. However, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have taken a more nuanced view of the situation. Whereas energy infrastructure was not a direct target in the latest tranche of Israeli missile strikes on Iran, the country’s oil and gas facilities did not emerge from the attacks entirely unscathed. Three days ago, the Guardian reported that Israel used precision air and drone strikes to principally target air defense systems protecting crucial oil and gas facilities, as well as military sites linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme and ballistic missile production.

Some of the targeted air defense systems include the Abadan oil refinery, the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex, the gasfield Tange Bijar, and the Bandar port in the south of the country. Overall,  Israeli media reported about 20 hits.

StanChart notes that damage to air defenses on Iran’s energy infrastructure has increased their vulnerability to future attack, a development that the market appears to be overlooking, or at least underappreciating.

That said, oil prices have pared back some of Monday’s heavy losses, with Brent crude for December delivery up 2.1% to trade at $72.50 per barrel at 13.00 pm ET in Wednesday’s session while the corresponding  WTI crude contract gained 2.0% to change hands at $68.62 per barrel. The latest oil price rally comes after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported inventory draws in gasoline and middle distillates for the week to October 25. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels, with production at an average of 9.7 million barrels daily compared with an inventory build of 900,000 barrels for the previous week, when production stood at an average of 10 million barrels daily. Meanwhile, in middle distillates, EIA estimated an inventory decline of 1 million barrels, with production averaging 4.9 million barrels daily compared with a stock draw of 1.1 million barrels for the previous week when production stood at an average of 5 million barrels daily.

Last week, StanChart reported that global oil demand hit an all-time high of 103.79 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August, an upwards surprise of about 450 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) above their (pre-JODI data release) forecast. August becomes the third successive month in which a new all-time demand high has been set, with StanChart working out that demand growth clocked in at 1.32 mb/d in August.

 

In yet another bullish development, Europe’s gas prices have seen an unexpected rally with markets remaining cautious due to recent supply outages in Norway and the U.S. According to StanChart, the latest trend over the past week has been of weekday withdrawals and weekend injections suggesting that the seasonal peak in inventories is either imminent or has already passed. The prospect of an earlier-than-usual start to inventory withdrawals and (in contrast to the oil markets), the continuation of security concerns about the Middle East as well as Russian gas flows have combined to push European gas prices sharply higher.

StanChart notes that the YTD increase in both EU and UK gas prices now exceeds 30%, only slightly lagging the YTD performance of gold.

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati told Al-Jadeed TV on Wednesday that he “hopes” a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be reached “in the coming hours or days.” He remarked that he was “cautiously optimistic” after receiving a call from United States Special Envoy Amos Hochstein, who told him he was on a plane to Tel Aviv. “The Lebanese army needs equipment to carry out its role, and there should be no weapons in the South Litani region except in the hands of the Lebanese legitimacy, and all infrastructure in that sector should be dismantled,” Mikati went on to say. Meanwhile, Israel’s KAN news agency leaked the Lebanon-Israel 60-day armistice proposal. In it, the two are called to adopt UN Resolutions 1701 and 1559, while the Lebanese armed forces are expected to monitor and enforce the resolution. Furthermore, within 7 days of the ceasefire, Israel is expected to withdraw its forces.

Israel says ‘prominent’ Hamas member killed in West Bank

Israel’s special forces eliminated a “prominent” Hamas member Hussam Al Malah in an operation in Tulkarem in the West Bank, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet said in a joint statement. Al Malah was said to have planned terrorist attacks against Israel in the West Bank along with two other Hamas members Islam Odeh and Zahi Oufi who were also killed by Israeli security forces before the operation on Wednesday. The operation was carried out by the agents of the special police counter-terrorist units and Shin Bet agents, the statement read.

NN: Of course the terrorists want peace because they are getting their asses kicked. \\\\\\\\Stupid///// That will  give them time to regroup and rearm and attack again. Its time to kill the beast

Hezbollah’s newly-elected Secretary-General Naim Qassem commented on Wednesday on the recent drone attack on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence, saying that the group’s contacts confirmed that the prime minister is “very afraid because we are targeting him.” “The enemy must know that its bombing of our villages and cities will not make us retreat, and the resistance is strong and was able to deliver a drone to Netanyahu’s room,” Qassem said, adding that even though the strike didn’t kill the Israeli prime minister, “perhaps an Israeli will kill him, perhaps during one of his speeches.” Hezbollah’s new leader also confirmed that the military group has recovered its capabilities and acquired new fighters to replace the ones injured in the pager attacks in the previous month, urging the group’s supporters to “have a little more patience.” Qassem also claimed that Nasrallah’s death won’t stop the group but increase its determination.

The oil market has “relaxed too quickly” over risks in the Middle East, and renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran after the US election could boost prices, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

“We see the risk of an escalating series of attacks over an extended period, with no immediate prospect of either military or diplomatic resolution,” analysts including Emily Ashford and Paul Horsnell said in an Oct. 29 report. The two-month period leading up to the presidential inauguration on Jan. 20 represents a potential “window for an intensification,” they said.

Crude prices slumped by the most in more than two years on Monday after Israel’s latest retaliatory strike against Iran avoided the OPEC producer’s energy infrastructure. That choice of targets both reduced concerns about immediate risks to crude flows, and flipped investors’ attention back toward expectations for deteriorating global oil balances in 2025. “There has been a trend over the past year for the market to act as if every escalation in Middle East geopolitical risk is a de-escalation,” the analysts wrote.

At present, Israel does not appear to have completed many of its objectives in Iran, and the scope for further action “is likely to widen significantly as soon as voting has concluded in the US election,” they said.

Global benchmark Brent was forecast at $89 a barrel in the first quarter of 2025, with West Texas Intermediate seen at $86, according to Standard Chartered. Brent last traded above $71, down by more than 7% this year.

Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant commented on Tuesday on the election of Naim Qassem as the new Hezbollah Secretary-General, stressing that it is a “temporary” move. “Temporary appointment. Not for long,” the minister said in a post on X. He added that “the countdown has begun,” hinting that Qassem could end up like his predecessor Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in Beirut by Israeli forces. Earlier in the day, Hezbollah announced that its Shura Council decided to appoint Qassem as the next group’s chief due to his “adherence to the principles and goals of Hezbollah.” NN: Think AAA

Gallant: Hezbollah’s rocket capacity around 20%

Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Tuesday that he estimates that Hezbollah retains only about 20% of its rocket and missile capacity compared to the period before the war. “There is a deep connection between our strike in Iran and what is happening to Hezbollah. Iran understands that Hezbollah does not have the ability to respond, and Hezbollah understands that it cannot rely on Iran,” Gallant said while visiting the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Northern Command base in Safed. He stated that Hezbollah is “not organized in the way that it used to be organized.” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly have a meeting today to find a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Hezbollah. Earlier today, Hezbollah appointed a new secretary-general, Naim Qassem, who will succeed the previous leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli strike. Gallant called this new appointment “temporary.”