The United Nations General Assembly member states voted in favor of granting Palestine its full membership in the United Nations on Friday, with 143 countries backing the decision. Nine countries voted against the draft resolution, including the United States and Israel. Another 25 nations abstained from voting. The vote acknowledges Palestine as meeting the criteria for eligibility to join the United Nations and recommends the Security Council to “reconsider the matter favorably,” but does not formally provide Palestine with membership. “Thank you to the peoples of the world, nations, & majority of States who voted for Palestinian self-determination, for Palestinian existence & future,” the Palestinian mission to the United Nations said in the statement.
Israel reportedly okays ‘expansion’ of op in Rafah
The Israeli security cabinet is said to have given the green light overnight to a plan aimed at broadening the operational zone in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah, sources told Axios’ correspondent Barak Ravid on Friday. According to the people familiar with the matter, this plan represents a “measured expansion” that would not cross US President Joe Biden’s “red line” as the sources described it. However, one of the sources cautioned that specific actions approved by the security cabinet last night might potentially represent a “red line” for the US president. Namely, the security cabinet instructed the Israeli delegation to continue efforts to reach an agreement that would secure the release of hostages from the Gaza Strip. The sources told the Axios journalist that Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich voted against this.
Oil Prices Are Rallying Once Again
Following several weeks of declines, oil prices are now rising once again on a combination of geopolitical risk, rising demand, and supply concerns. Oil prices are once again climbing after several weeks of declines. Falling US crude inventories and robust Chinese imports have sparked some bullish sentiment in oil markets. Brent futures are set to post their first weekly gain since early April, moving closer to $85 per barrel, further boosted by the easing of the US labor market (jobless claims the highest in eight months) and Israel’s Rafah operation. According to media reports, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump vowed to reverse the Biden administration’s environmental rules and halt the current freeze on new LNG export terminals, asking them to raise $1 billion for his campaign. China’s oil imports have risen year-over-year to about 10.88 million b/d last month, a 5.5% increase compared to April 2023, with refinery activity boosted by high-flying activity during the Labour Day holiday and also improving manufacturing activity. The US Department of Energy issued a solicitation for a new refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve now that WTI prices dropped to $79 per barrel, seeking to purchase 3.3 million barrels of oil for an October delivery to the Big Hill storage facility. The US Treasury is poised to target Iran’s export capacities by targeting service providers in Singapore and Malaysia as approximately half of the Middle Eastern country’s exports carry out ship-to-ship transfers in the Malacca Strait, to be further shipped to China. Despite Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut back its production capacity expansion, the Saudi NOC reported a 23.8% increase in capital expenditure in Q1 2024, boosted by new investments into natural gas, renewables, and lower-carbon fuels.
Oil Edges Higher on Technicals as Stockpiles Fall
Oil edged higher as key technical levels provided a floor for losses while investors digested a mixed US inventories report. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.3% to settle above $79 a barrel after a monthlong slide that brought prices to the lowest since mid-March. The 100-day moving average stemmed crude’s losses, while the nine-day relative strength index indicated the selloff was overdone. Bolstering the technical rally was a report showed US stockpiles drew down by 1.36 million barrels last week. “The next key area of resistance is between $80 to $81,” where the “psychologically important level converges with the 200-day moving average,” according to Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com. Recently, key time spreads that serve as a gauge for supply and demand strengthened to as high as 50 cents after contracting as low as 26 cents earlier this week. The prompt spread has oscillated in a wide range as markets continue to search for direction. Oil has been broadly losing steam since early last month as tensions ease in the Middle East. OPEC+ supply is once again in focus, with key member Russia pumping above target before the cartel meets next month. The group is widely expected to extend output curbs when producers convene on June 1. Separately, the Biden administration raised the price it’s willing to pay to refill America’s emergency oil reserves. The Energy Department will pay as much as $79.99 a barrel, the first time an explicit ceiling has been set.
Prices:
- West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose 27 cents trading at $79.96 a barrel in New York.
- Brent for July crossed over $84.00 a barrel.
NN AUDIO FILE
OPEC hates WTI under $80 a barrel
Blinken likely to submit critical report on Israel to Congress…..Israel: Sufficient ammunition for Rafah, other military ops
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken (pictured) is set to present a “highly critical” report to Congress later today concluding that Israel has breached the conditions for using US weapons, Axios reported on Friday, citing three US officials. According to the sources, Blinken’s report will detail a series of incidents that occurred during the conflict in Gaza, ultimately concluding that Israel has violated international law and subsequently US President Biden’s national security memorandum. The same media also stated that Israel had previously assured the US that it would adhere to international law when using American weapons in the Gaza Strip.
Israel: Sufficient ammunition for Rafah, other military ops
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari said on Thursday that his government owns enough munitions for upcoming military missions including the one in Rafah. Answering a question about the readiness of Israel after Washington paused one shipment of weapons, Hagari noted that “the IDF has armaments for the missions it is planning, and also for the missions in Rafah. We have what we need,” he mentioned. His remarks also follow those of US President Joe Biden, who warned that he would stop sending arms to the Middle Eastern country if it launched a full-scale invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, prompting reactions from the Israeli war cabinet and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
China’s Crude Oil Imports Climbed by 5.5% Year-on-Year in April
Chinese imports of crude oil rose by 5.45% in April compared to the same month last year as refiners stocked up on crude to prepare for the five-day local Labor Day weekend that began on May 1, China’s official statistics showed on Thursday. Last month, Chinese refiners imported 10.88 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, up compared to 10.4 million bpd imported for the same month of 2023, per data from the General Administration of Customs cited by Reuters. However, Chinese crude imports in April this year slumped from the levels from the previous month. In March, Chinese imports of crude oil fell by 6% compared to the same month last year but stood at 11.55 million bpd. While lower by 6.2% compared to the March 2023 volumes of over 12 million bpd – when China was recovering from the eased Covid-related restrictions – the imports in March were higher than the January-February average and contributed to a 0.7% increase in Chinese crude imports in January to March 2024. In fact, much of the increase in Chinese crude oil imports in the first quarter of 2024 was due to cheap abundant flows of Russian crude, which – hampered en route to India by the U.S. sanctions – has found a home in the world’s top crude oil importer, analysts say. But in April, imports fell compared to March amid rising oil prices at the time cargoes were contracted. “China’s crude buying slowed down on strengthened crude oil prices and weakened domestic diesel demand,” Lin Ye, an analyst at Rystad Energy in Beijing, told Reuters. Manufacturing recovery in China was again muted in April, while the property crisis continues to weigh on construction-intensive fuels such as diesel. Going forward, new fuel export quotas and the recent slide in oil prices could spur crude buying from Chinese refiners. Earlier this month, China allocated more export quotas for refined petroleum products for 2024, issuing a second batch that nearly matches the volumes in the first batch
Israel to reportedly move forward with Rafah plans…….. Ceasefire talks allegedly suspended due to situation in Rafah
The Israeli military is expected to move forward with its military operation in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah “as planned,” a source told Axios correspondent Barak Ravid on Thursday. The ceasefire negotiations in Cairo, which also focused on the release of hostages from the Gaza Strip, have ended, with the Israeli delegation already on its way back to Israel, the insider confirmed. Israeli officials are also said to have presented their “reservations” to the mediators about the Hamas proposal. Namely, the Israeli war cabinet was anticipated to hold a meeting this evening after United States President Joe Biden warned that Washington would stop its weapon shipments to Israel were it to launch a full-scale invasion of Rafah, where over a million people are currently taking shelter.
Ceasefire talks allegedly suspended due to situation in Rafah
Hamas delegation leaves Cairo without ceasefire deal
Hamas Political Bureau member Izzat al-Risheq said on Thursday that the Palestinian group’s delegation left Cairo after the latest round of ceasefire negotiations with Israel. No agreement has been achieved as Israel began operations in Rafah in the south of Gaza. Al-Risheq said the Israeli operation “aims to obstruct the efforts of the mediators and escalate the aggression and the war of extermination.” International opposition to the Rafah invasion accelerated in recent days, with the United States vowing to stop weapons deliveries to Israel if it decided to proceed with the operation.
Fears mount that a full-scale Israel-Hezbollah confrontation could be imminent
Lebanon, a country of six million scarred by sectarianism and under the de facto control of the Islamist movement, is in the grips of a dire financial crisis; its people are in no position to bear the brunt of another war. The Observer’s conversations with Beirutis over the past few weeks suggest that the Lebanese still believe the cross-border hostilities can be contained, as Hezbollah does not want to antagonise its base. For the time being, what happens in the north is dependent on the trajectory of Israel’s war in Gaza. Despite international calls for restraint, including from Israel’s closest ally, the US, the IDF appears to finally be gearing up for its long-threatened offensive on Rafah . An Israeli ground operation there is likely to cause thousands of civilian casualties and further disrupt meagre aid deliveries. Protracted ceasefire talks mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar have gained traction again in the past week or so, but it remains uncertain whether any truce and hostage release deal can be struck that would spare Rafah from an Israeli offensive in the next few weeks.The IDF is loath to stretch troops across two major fronts, so a wider operation in the north is unlikely to come before Rafah’s fate is decided. For its part, Hezbollah has vowed to continue fighting until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza.
Netanyahu: ‘Israel will stand alone’ if it has to
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Thursday that Israel will continue its fighting against Hamas without anyone’s support if it has to do so. “If Israel is forced to stand alone, Israel will stand alone,” Netanyahu pointed out, adding that “no amount of pressure” will be strong enough to make Israel desist “from defending itself.” The prime minister’s comments come after United States President Joe Biden said that his country will suspend weapons shipments to Israel if it launches a full-scale invasion of the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, where nearly 1.5 million people have been sheltering since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.