US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Iran appeared willing to reach an agreement with Washington, but stressed that the United States was “not satisfied” with Tehran’s latest position. Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, the president commented that Tehran needed a deal because the economy was under severe pressure and repeated that the country could not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. “I think it looks like they want to make a deal,” he added. The remarks came amid ongoing diplomatic efforts on Iran, the Hormuz Strait, and the regional security framework for the Middle East.
$100 oil for Years into the future
- Oil prices briefly fell below $100 on optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran deal, but rebounded after President Trump said there was “no rush” and confirmed the Hormuz blockade would remain in place.
- Analysts warn the market is underestimating the crisis, with around 14–15 million bpd of supply disrupted, inventories falling rapidly, and the IEA cautioning that oil markets could enter a “red zone” by July or August.
- Energy experts say years of weak investment in new oil supply, combined with the prolonged Hormuz disruption, could push Brent crude into a prolonged $120–$150 per barrel range.
Oil prices opened trade this week with a decline on reports that a deal between the U.S. and Iran was imminent. Brent crude slipped below $100 for the first time in days. But then President Trump said there was no rush on a deal and the U.S blockade in Hormuz would remain. While traders scratch their heads, analysts are warning that crude could remain well above $100 per barrel for years. This is literally uncharted territory for oil. Negotiations with Iran were “proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner,” the U.S. president told media over the weekend, fueling optimism that has actually been a feature of oil markets ever since the Iranian army closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. and Israeli missile attacks on the country. Despite the supply crunch that the closure caused, traders remained remarkably certain that it would not last more than a few days, possibly a couple of weeks. Three months in, this optimism remains.
Indeed, oil traders have been boosting their short positions on crude for no less than seven weeks in a row in anticipation of an end to the crisis that has removed some 14 million barrels from the world’s daily oil supply
Rapidly falling inventories, missing Middle Eastern exports, and rising summer demand could push global oil markets into dangerous territory by July or August, the head of the International Energy Agency warned earlier this month. “This may be difficult and we may be entering the red zone in July-August if we don’t see some improvements,” Fatih Birol said. Unlike some earlier warnings that sounded more like a theoretical note, the inventory data increasingly suggest that Birol may actually have a point. Investment in the oil and gas industry has been weak for about a decade, since the U.S. shale boom from the 2010, natural resource analysts and investors Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg wrote in their latest quarterly commentary. As a result, global production has been largely stalling in terms of growth pace everywhere except in the U.S. shale patch, where growth is slowing down as well. Now, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, the world is in an unprecedented situation of supply tightness.
“The market has never before attempted to function for an extended period with such a large volume impaired simultaneously,” Goehring and Rozencwajg wrote, adding that “The industry appears to have entered another structurally tight phase following years of inadequate capital spending, just as the market confronts an acute physical bottleneck of historic proportions.”
The experts suggested that if the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz extended further in time, $120 to $150 would become the new normal for Brent crude over the next few years—once market players realize the extent of the supply problem, presumably, because right now, this is being grossly underestimated. “At least 15 million barrels per day of supply appears to be directly curtailed. On volume alone, the disruption exceeds every previous oil crisis. Yet dated Brent — still the best measure of physical delivered crude — managed at its peak to exceed its 2008 high by only $4 per barrel,” Goehring and Rozencwajg pointed out, going on to add that “The market, in other words, has been presented with an energy dislocation larger than any previously recorded and has responded as though it were a difficult but ultimately temporary inconvenience.” “Oil moves slowly through the global system,” Goehring and Rozencwajg wrote. “So does information. In both cases, the true condition of the market often reveals itself only after the underlying imbalance has become considerably more serious than first believed.”
NN: This paper market has got its head up its ass. Reality will soon hit them like a bullet to the brain.
Iran to ban oil exports from region if war resumes
Iran will block oil from leaving the region if the war with the United States restarts and Tehran’s exports are endangered, Iran’s Armed Forces Spokesperson Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi said in an interview with Al-Jazeera on Monday. The spokesman warned that Iran’s response to any new attacks will be more severe. He added that the Iranian forces had identified new targets to be hit if the US and Israel resume strikes on Iran. “The enemies will certainly face new surprises and tactics, and Iran’s campaigns, should the region enter another phase of war, will extend beyond the region’s borders and be far more intense, more brutal, more violent, and more powerful than the two previous wars,” Shekarchi stressed.
NN: I am not buying into this peace deal bullshit. You remember the one they were going to announce on Saturday, Sunday…. Monday… That’s where the oil crises was resolved and the oil was going to flow through the Straights. Excuse my I got to go now and pound my gentiles with a brick so my head won’t hurt!
Trump: No deal with Iran unless it’s meaningful
United States President Donald Trump said on Monday that he will either reach a “great and meaningful” deal with Iran, or there will be no agreement. “I laugh at all of the Dumocrats, RINOS, and Fools who know nothing about the potential deal I am making with Iran, things that haven’t even been negotiated yet … The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal. It will be the exact opposite of the JCPOA disaster negotiated by the failed Obama Administration, which was a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran. No, I don’t do deals like that,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. The US president criticized Republican Senators Thom Tillis and Bill Cassidy, as well as Republican Representative Thomas Massie, claiming that they “do nothing but create division and loss,” after they have been critical of him over his policies.
Iran and US play down hopes for imminent breakthrough in war
At present the talks are not on the nuclear issue, which will be negotiated over a 60-day period if the framework accord is agreed, Baghaei said.
Trump has said his key aim in the war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon with its highly enriched uranium. Tehran has consistently denied it has any plans to do so. A day earlier, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would “remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed”. Trump raised expectations of an imminent deal on Saturday when he said Washington and Tehran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum of understanding on a peace agreement that would reopen the strait. Baghaei said the potential accord contained no specific details on management of the strait, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied gas flows.
Iran will not charge tolls for ships to pass through the strait, Baghaei said. However, he added there would be a cost for services that will be offered, such as navigation and steps to protect the environment, under a protocol to be agreed with Oman,
which shares the opposite shore of the waterway. The two sides remain at odds on several difficult issues, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s war in Lebanon with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia and Tehran’s demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks. Iranian sources disclosed that in future stages, “feasible formulas” could be found to resolve the dispute over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, including diluting the material under the supervision of the U.N. nuclear watchdog. A tenuous ceasefire has held since early April. The president hit back at critics of his handling of the negotiations and his willingness to compromise with Iran. “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one … So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about,” Trump posted on Sunday.
NN: More Iranian negotiation tricks.
Trump: US won’t rush Iran deal, talks constructive
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that negotiations with Iran are moving forward in an “orderly and constructive manner,” while stressing that Washington will not rush into an agreement. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had instructed US representatives involved in the negotiations to take their time and “not to rush” because “time is on our side,” adding that both parties must avoid mistakes and ensure any deal is properly finalized. Trump also said the US blockade will “remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified and signed.” He contrasted the current negotiations with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under former President Barack Obama, arguing the ongoing talks are designed to prevent Iran from developing or obtaining a nuclear weapon. “Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb,” he stressed.
Trump: It’s 50/50 between Iran deal or bombing
United States President Donald Trump said on Saturday that it is a “solid 50/50” between the option of reaching a “good” deal with Iran or the option to “blow them to kingdom come.” “I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good,” Trump told Axios in an interview, adding that “some people would much rather have a deal and others would rather resume the war.” The US president is set to meet with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and his informal advisor and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, later today to discuss Iran’s latest proposal, signaling that he will make a decision on whether he will resume the war with Iran by Sunday.
US said to be readying for new Iran strikes
United States military and intelligence officials prepared contingency measures for potential strikes on Iran while indirect negotiations between the two countries continued, CBS News reported, citing sources with direct knowledge of the planning.Personnel lists were updated and troop rotations adjusted at bases across the Middle East in anticipation of possible escalation. Meanwhile, some US service members canceled their Memorial Day weekend plans. The news follows a report that the two sides were not making much progress on reaching a deal.
Wood Mackenzie Warns Oil Could Hit $200
Wood Mackenzie highlighted in a new report from the company, “a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses the single greatest threat to global energy markets in decades”. Oil prices could reach $200 per barrel in a worst case scenario as more than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and condensate supply remains curtailed, the statement noted, highlighting that Wood Mackenzie’s report projected three “distinct scenarios – quick peace, summer settlement, and extended disruption”. A summer settlement scenario assumes the ceasefire holds but negotiations extend into late summer, with the Strait remaining largely closed until September, the statement noted. “Oil and LNG supply shortages persist through Q3 2026, driving a shallow global recession in H2 2026,” Wood Mackenzie said. “Global GDP growth falls below two percent in 2026, resulting in modest yet permanent economic scarring compared to the pre-war baseline,” it added. The statement warned that, “under the most severe scenario [extended disruption] the Strait remains largely closed through the end of 2026, with recurring tensions triggering periods of renewed conflict and sustained supply disruption”. In the statement, Wood Mackenzie said its analysis indicates that Brent crude prices could approach $200 per barrel by end-2026, despite global oil demand falling by six million barrels per day year on year in the second half of the year, and that diesel and jet fuel prices could rise towards $300 per barrel in major refining centers by the end of the year. “More than 11 million barrels per day of crude and condensate production remains shut in and global oil inventories continue to decline,” Wood Mackenzie projected in the statement under this scenario. Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie, highlighted in the statement that the Strait of Hormuz “is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets” and warned that “a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis”. “The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth,” he added. “The consequences of an extended disruption would extend well beyond energy markets. It would test the resilience of global trade, industrial supply chains and economic growth simultaneously, reinforcing the urgency of achieving a resolution,” he concluded. Wood Mackenzie went on to warn in its statement that a prolonged conflict could accelerate structural changes across global energy markets. “Even after the Strait reopens, intermittent disruption could continue and reinforce the geopolitical risk attached to both oil and LNG trade flows, creating a more volatile pricing environment and increasing pressure on import-dependent economies to strengthen energy security,” it said.
Zaye Capital Markets In a market analysis Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said crude “is being pulled between two major forces – geopolitical risk and demand uncertainty”. “Prices came under pressure when markets priced lower immediate escalation risk in the Middle East, but the rebound shows traders are not ready to remove the supply-risk premium while the Strait of Hormuz remains central to global energy flows,” he added. Aslam noted in the analysis that U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments are directly influencing the oil ecosystem and said yesterday’s economic data “added another layer to oil sentiment”. “U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 7.86 million barrels, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped by 9.9 million barrels, and total crude inventories fell by around 17.8 million barrels to 819.2 million barrels, the lowest level in 11 months,” he highlighted. “Refinery utilization stood near 91.6 percent, while crude exports reached around 5.6 million barrels per day, showing physical demand remains active,” he added. “At Zaye Capital Markets, we believe analysts should watch PMI new orders, jobless claims, refinery runs, OPEC supply signals, IEA demand revisions, crude exports, inventory draws and Strait of Hormuz headlines, because oil’s next move depends on whether markets fear tighter supply, weaker demand or renewed inflation more,” Aslam went on to state.
Rubio: Iran progress shouldn’t be exaggerated
United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked on Friday that there has been “slight” progress in his country’s negotiations with Iran, but stressed that he does not want to “exaggerate” it. Speaking to the press ahead of the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) foreign ministers in Helsingborg, Rubio noted that the talks will need to address the issue of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles. He also urged the international community not to accept Iran’s decision to charge fees for the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, Rubio reiterated that US President Donald Trump is “disappointed” in some of the NATO allies for not stepping up and joining the US and Israel’s campaign against Iran.
NN: This is going nowhere fast!