Crude oil inventories in the United States fell this week by 3.104 million barrels for the week ending May 3, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a 1 million barrel build. For the week prior, the API reported a 509,000 barrel build in crude inventories. On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 0.6 million barrels as of May 10. Inventories are now at 367.8 million barrels—the highest point since last April, but well below the 656 million barrels in inventory in June 2020. Oil prices were trading down ahead of the API data release on Tuesday, pushed down by a market that is nervous about the possibility of interest rates staying high. Gasoline inventories fell this week by 1.269 million barrels, countering last week’s 1.46 million barrel build. As of last week, gasoline inventories were about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories rose this week by 349,000 barrels, compared to last week’s 1.713-million-barrel build. Distillates were 7% below the five-year average for the week ending May 3, the latest EIA data shows. Cushing inventories saw a draw this week, according to API data, falling 601,000 barrels after increasing by 1.339 million barrels in the previous week.
New Bloomberg Study Warns of $150 Oil
A recent release by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) warned that, according to a new analysis by BI and Bloomberg Economics (BE),
“an escalation to a direct war between Israel and Iran could result in oil prices rising to $150 a barrel and global output cut by $1 trillion”.
Ziad Daoud, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at BE and co-author of the report, said in the release that the organization’s base case is that the war will remain largely confined, with limited impact on the global economy, but pointed out that this could change.“A risk scenario involving a prolonged conflict could result in a global recession that takes about $1 trillion off global GDP, with surging oil prices, and plummeting sentiment dropping growth to 1.7 percent,” Daoud added.“Outside of the financial crisis and pandemic, that would be the worst growth for world economy since 1982, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to contain inflation from the 1970s oil shock,” Daoud continued. The BE representative noted in the release that the world economy is still recovering from an inflationary cycle exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and said “another conflict in a critical energy-producing region could significantly recharge inflation to nearly seven percent this year”. Significant disruption of production in the Persian Gulf region, or to transport of oil in the extreme case of a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, could shift OPEC+ policy to maximum output, according to BI and BE, the release stated.In this case the spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait would become irrelevant if the strait is shuttered, the release warned. BI’s release pointed out that the new BI and BE study examined the impact of four scenarios “in the context of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict”. In addition to a direct war, the study looked at a proxy war, a “confined war”, and a ceasefire, the release outlined.
“A proxy war, where Iran and Israel clash through proxies such as Lebanon and Syria, while less destructive than a direct war, may cost the global economy up to $300 billion, as prices jump up around $10 a barrel and investor confidence subsides. “Oil prices shrugged off Iran’s April 13 strikes on Israel, suggesting that markets see the extension … of a confined war as the most likely scenario. BI and BE see risks for oil skewed to the upside as healthy demand and OPEC+’s tight grip on supply form a solid fundamental backdrop,” it continued.
BI stated in the release that the impact of a potential cease-fire on oil prices would likely remain limited as the current geopolitical risk premium appears negligible.
“In a recent BI survey, 92 percent of 143 respondents said that there’s a less than $5 a barrel geopolitical risk premium attached to prices by the market,” BI added. “Red Sea attacks have had a limited effect on prices so far and OPEC has a meaningful amount of spare capacity (c. 6.8 million barrels a day), notes BI. Moreover, OPEC+ output policy likely won’t change in a ceasefire scenario if the impact on prices remains constrained,” it went on to state. Analysts at Morningstar DBRS said the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars “could lead to a meaningful disruption of oil supply, potentially causing oil prices to surge”. In its latest short term energy outlook, which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned that “there remains significant uncertainty centered around ongoing developments in the Middle East, which have the potential to increase oil price volatility and lead to sharp increases in oil prices”.
“Prices increased in April due to falling global oil inventories. Geopolitical tensions also supported crude oil prices amid conflict between Iran and Israel, which added uncertainty to already heightened tensions in the Middle East,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.
“Despite these tensions, crude oil price volatility has been subdued for much of this year by significant spare crude oil production capacity. If holders of spare production capacity choose to deploy it, supply can be available to the oil market in the event of any short-term supply disruption,” it added.
OPEC still sees 2024 world oil demand growth at 2.2 mb/d
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Tuesday in its latest version of its Monthly Oil Market report that the global oil demand growth estimates for 2024 remained “broadly” the same compared to the last month’s assessment, standing at 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). While there were “minor upward adjustments to 1Q24 data, including a slight upward adjustment in OECD Americas and Chinese data,” over better-than-anticipated oil demand performance in the reported quarter, this was offset by “a downward revision to the Middle East in 2Q24 and 3Q24,” as a slight decrease is expected in these two trimesters. For 2025, global oil demand growth is estimated to stand at 1.8 mb/d, also unchanged from the last assessment.
Israelis said to storm Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque
Hundreds of Israelis stormed the courtyards of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on Tuesday, Al-Jazeer and Palestinian news agency WAFA reported. According to the reports, the Israelis raised the Israeli flag at the site. The incident took place on Israel’s Independence Day amid calls from Jewish groups to take control of the mosque. Meanwhile, Israeli police reportedly tightened measures around the mosque and conducted ID checks of Palestinians trying to enter it.
UNRWA: Nearly half a million forcibly displaced from Rafah
Nearly half a million Palestinians have been “forcibly displaced” from Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah since May 6, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) said on Tuesday.
“People face constant exhaustion, hunger, and fear. Nowhere is safe. An immediate ceasefire is the only hope,” the agency said in its statement. According to the UNRWA’s latest estimate, 450,000 people have fled Rafah as fears continue to grow over Israel’s possible ground operation in the city. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani previously underlined that Israeli’s planned offensive in Rafah set the negotiations with Hamas “backward.”
Houses in Jabalia reportedly bombed by Israel
Israeli fighter aircraft allegedly bombed civilian houses located in the Jabalia refugee camp, Al Jazeera Arabic reported on Tuesday. According to the media outlet, various houses on the al-Ternis Street were targeted. Meanwhile, it was also said that one individual died, while many were injured after Israel’s artillery shelling in the middle of the Zeitoun neighborhood in the south of Gaza City. Previous reports claimed that Israel sent additional troops to Jabalia.
NN: What did they think would happen? Now they are upset because they are getting their Mohamad asses kicked. Lesson …. don’t fuck with the nasty Jews. Because they are better at it then you are. Ask the:
- 1948 Arab–Israeli War, defeated, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria
- Palestinian Fedayeen insurgency (1950s–1960s) Arab guerrillas infiltrated from Syria, Egypt, and Jordan into Israel to carry out attacks against Israeli civilians and soldiers.
- Suez Crisis (October 1956) – A military attack on Egypt by Britain, France, and Israel, beginning on 29 October 1956. Although the Israeli invasion of the Sinai was successful, the United States and USSR forced it to retreat. Even so, Israel managed to re-open the Straits of Tiran and pacified its southern border.
- Six-Day War (June 1967) – Fought between Israel and Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. The nations of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria, and others also contributed troops and arms to the Arab forces.
- War of Attrition (1967–1970) – A limited war fought between the Israeli military and forces of the Egyptian Republic, the USSR, Jordan, Syria, and the Palestine Liberation Organization from 1967 to 1970.
- Yom Kippur War (October 1973) – Fought by a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria against Israel as a way of recapturing part of the territories which they lost to the Israelis back in the Six-Day War. The war began with a surprise joint attack by Egypt and Syria on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. Egypt and Syria crossed the cease-fire lines in the Sinai and Golan Heights, respectively. Eventually Arab forces were defeated by Israel and there were no significant territorial changes.
- Palestinian insurgency in South Lebanon (1971–1982) – The PLO relocated to South Lebanon from Jordan, staged attacks on the Galilee, and used South Lebanon as a base for international operations. In 1978, Israel launches Operation Litani – the first Israeli large-scale invasion of Lebanon, and Israeli retaliations, eventually escalate into the 1982 War.
- 1982 Lebanon War (1982) – Began on 6 June 1982, when the Israel Defense Forces invaded southern Lebanon to expel the PLO from the territory. The war resulted in the expulsion of the PLO from Lebanon and created an Israeli Security Zone in southern Lebanon.
- South Lebanon conflict (1985–2000) – Nearly 15 years of warfare between the Israel Defense Forces and its Lebanese Christian proxy militias against Lebanese Muslim guerrilla, led by Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
- First Intifada (1987–1993) – First large-scale Palestinian uprising against Israel in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
- Second Intifada (2000–2005) – Second Palestinian uprising, a period of intensified violence, which began in late September 2000.
- 2006 Lebanon War (summer 2006) – Began as a military operation. The principal participants were Hezbollah paramilitary forces and the Israeli military. The war resulted in a stalemate.
- Gaza War or Operation Cast Lead (December 2008 – January 2009) – Three-week armed conflict between Israel and Hamas during the winter of 2008–2009. Israel responded to ongoing rocket fire from the Gaza Strip with military force in an action titled “Operation Cast Lead”. Israel opened the attack with a surprise air strike on 27 December 2008.
- 2012 Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip or Operation Pillar of Defense (November 2012) – Military offensive on the Gaza Strip.[1]
- 2014 Gaza War or Operation Protective Edge (July–August 2014) – Military offensive on the Gaza Strip as a response to the collapse of American-sponsored peace talks,
- Syrian Civil War and the Iran–Israel conflict during the Syrian civil war.
- 2021 Israel–Palestine crisis or Operation Guardian of the Walls (May 2021) – Riots between Jews and Arabs in Israeli cities. Hamas fired rockets into Israel, with Iron Dome intercepting the most dangerous projectiles. Israel began airstrikes in Gaza.
- Israel–Hamas war (October 2023- ). Operation Swords of Iron. The Hamas murderes are watching their cites reduced to rubble. And their fighters getting a express ticket to go see all.
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Egyptian Pursuit Of The Israeli Exodus After years of slavery, the time came for the Israelites to return back to their ancestral home in the Promised Land
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Battle Of Gibeon After crossing the Red Sea, the Israelites matched into the Promised Land in Canaan. To their surprise, the Canaanites had already inhabited the lands. When the Canaanites saw the invaders, they gathered their armies and prepared to annihilate the Israelites. That night in utter darkness the Israel army matched an eighteen to twenty miles climb of an elevation of more than 1,000 meters to the enemy camp. With no sleep or food, the Israelites made a surprise attack on the sleeping army of Canaanites.
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Battle Of Aphek The fight against the Philistines for the Ark of the Covenant. In this battle, the Israelite, famed for their earlier victories over their enemies.
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Battle Of Socoh The story of how the young David killed Goliath. David was underestimated but a confident competitor. spear and javelin that scared all the Israelites. David refused to wear armor because he knew that armor only wears the warrior down
Here is a partial list:
| Battle of Siddim | Genesis 14 |
| Egyptian Pursuit of the Israeli Exodus | Exodus 14 |
| Battle of Rephidim | Exodus 17 and Deuteronomy 25 |
| Battle of Hormah | Numbers 14 |
| Battle of Jericho | Joshua 5 |
| Battles of Ai | Joshua 7 and 8 |
| Battle of Gibeon | Joshua 10 |
| Battle of Shechem | Joshua 8 and 9 |
| Battle of Zaphon | Joshua 12 |
| Battle of Gibeah | Judges 19-21 |
| Battle of Aphek | 1 Samuel 4 |
| Battle of Mizpah | 1 Samuel 7 |
| Battle of Jabesh-Gilead | 1 Samuel 11 |
| Battle of Micmash | 1 Samuel 13 and 14 |
| Battle of Amalek | 1 Samuel 15 |
| Battle of Socoh | 1 Samuel 17 |
| Battle of Keilah | 1 Samuel 23 |
| Battle of Mount Gilboa | 1 Samuel 28 and 1 Chronicles 10 |
| Battle of Mahanaim | 2 Samuel 4 |
| Battle of Rabbah | 2 Samuel 10 and 1 Chronicles 19 and 20 |
| Battle of Ramoth-Gilead | 1 Kings 22 and 2 Chronicles 18 and 19 |
| Battle of Samaria | 2 Kings 6 and 7 |
| Battle of Elath | 2 Kings 16 and 2 Chronicles 28 |
| Assyrian Invasion | 2 Kings 15 and 17 |
| Egyptian Invasion | 1 Kings 14 and 2 Chronicles 12 |
| Defeat of the Cushites (Ethiopians) | 2 Chronicles 14 |
| Battle of Zoar | 2 Kings 8 and 2 Chronicles 21 |
| Battle of the Valley of Salt | 2 Kings 12 and 14 and 2 Chronicles 24 and 25 |
| Rebellion in Gaza | 2 Kings 18 |
| Battle of Lachish | 2 Kings 18 and 19, 2 Chronicles 32, and Isaiah 36 and 37 |
| Battle of Jezreel Valley | 2 Kings 23 and 2 Chronicles 35 |
| Fall of Jerusalem to Babylon | 2 Kings 25, 2 Chronicles 36, Jeremiah 52, and Daniel 1 |
| Battle of Mount Zemaraim | 2 Chronicles 13 |
| Battle of Beth-Shemesh | 2 Chronicles 25 |
| Greek Conquests | 4th Century BC |
| Battle of Paneas | 198 BC |
| Maccabean Revolt | 2nd Century BC |
| Roman Capture of Jerusalem | 63 BC |
| Jewish Revolt against Rome | 66 AD |
| Roman Siege of Jerusalem | 70 AD |
| Battle of Bethar (Bar Kokhba Revolt) | 135 AD |
Blinken, Egyptian FM discuss Rafah’s op, border crossings
United States Secretary oRafah’sa f State Antony Blinken (pictured above discussed Monday the Israeli military operation in Rafah, the displacement of Palestinians, and the state of the border crossings with Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry (right) in a phone call, the State Department said in a statement. Blinken reaffirmed that the US “does not support a major military ground operation in Rafah” due to the humanitarian condition of over a million people seeking shelter in the city. He stressed his government’s stance of “rejection of any forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.” Moreover, the two politicians talked about the humanitarian aid flow in the region using the Kerem Shalom crossing point “to its maximum extent” as well as the “reopening of the Rafah border crossing.” The protection of aid workers was also part of their conversation.
UN ‘quietly’ lowers Gaza civilian death toll by ‘almost half’
Sky News host Chris Kenny says the West must be “very sceptical” of death toll claims coming from Gaza as they are numbers only Hamas allows out of the region. “I have said before that we have to be very sceptical … about claims made when it comes to casualties in Gaza … the only numbers coming out of Gaza are numbers that Hamas allows out of Gaza,” Mr Kenny said.
“The UN, quietly, has dramatically revised downwards its claims about the number of women and children killed in Gaza, just a week ago they were claiming more than 9,500 women had been killed and more than 14,500 children, two days later, they reduced those numbers to less than 5,000 women and less than 8,000 children.
“If those numbers are true, they are horrible, a horrendous toll, a terrible loss because of a war Hamas has deliberately, started, and deliberately prolonged.
“So, the UN now revises down the civilian toll by almost half … the bottom line is the war must end … Hamas must hand over the remaining hostages and surrender its terrorists, the sooner the better.”
Farhan Haq, deputy spokesperson for UN Secretary General António Guterres, said last week the UN is consistently revising and cross-checking its figures — which it obtains from Gaza’s Ministry of Health, the Gaza Media Office and other sources — but blamed the “fog of war” for the difficulty in being able to ascertain accurate death tolls. Israeli officials and others have criticized the UN for relying on statistics from Gaza’s government, which has been run by Hamas since the group took control of the territory in 2007, and for using figures that don’t differentiate between Palestinian civilians and combatants.
NN: Hamas is making idiots of the free world
Israel intercepts drone near eastern border…….US destroys two Houthi drones, one anti-ship missile
An Israeli fighter jet intercepted a drone as it approached Israeli airspace from the east, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced. The military clarified that the drone was downed before breaching Israeli territory, hence no alarms were triggered. This incident comes amidst heightened tensions in the region, as Israel continues its war on Gaza while fighting a concurrent battle along its border with Lebanon.
US destroys two Houthi drones, one anti-ship missile
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) stated in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that its forces destroyed one uncrewed aerial system (UAS) in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on Monday. Additionally, US forces neutralized another UAS launched by the Yemen-based Houthis over the Red Sea on the same day. The report stated further that the USS Mason destroyed one inbound anti-ship ballistic missile fired off by the Houthis over the Red Sea. “There were no injuries or damages reported by US, coalition, or merchant vessels,” CENTCOM stated.
Hezbollah claims responsibility for 7 attacks on Israel
Hezbollah asserted responsibility for seven attacks on Israeli targets, as stated in its daily report. The group claimed these actions were retaliation for Israeli strikes on southern Lebanese communities, particularly in Odaisseh, affecting civilian residences. The most recent assault targeted Israeli soldiers in the settlement of Metulla, a drone strike on an Israeli military base in Beit Hillel, a rocket strike on Kfarchouba and an antitank-guided missile attack on an Israeli Merkava tank.
US allegedly thinks Israel has enough troops for Rafah incursion
The Biden administration supposedly assessed that Israel gathered enough troops on the edge of Gaza’s southern city of Rafah for a full-scale incursion into the city in the coming days, CNN reported, citing two senior administration officials.Senior United States officials are allegedly unsure if Israel intends to commit to a major invasion of Rafah, with one of the sources cited by the news agency stressing that Israel is currently “nowhere close” to making suitable preparations for such a move, as it hasn’t yet established the proper infrastructure related to food, hygiene and shelter for civilians. US President Joe Biden previously stressed that a major ground operation in Rafah would mean the end of offensive weapons shipments for Israel. NN: i See a full blown invasion and soon.
Oil rises 1% ahead of OPEC report……. EIA: US crude inventories down by 1.4 million barrels
Crude oil prices for future contracts rose on Monday as investors braced for the release of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report on May 14, which will reveal the group’s outlook for the coming period. Additionally, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas appears to have sparked concerns about the possibility of the Middle East conflict escalating further. This, in turn, raised the potential for it to impact the supply of the commodity. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for June contracts surged 1.52% to $79.47 per barrel at 10:34 am ET. Brent for July deliveries jumped 1.21% to $83.77 per barrel.
EIA: US crude inventories down by 1.4 million barrels
Commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, which are not taking into account those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, were down by 1.4 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels in the week ending May 3, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed in its report on Wednesday. The figure marked a slightly lower-than-expected draw. The country’s inventories now stand 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million barrels per day for the corresponding week, which is 307,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 85.5% of their operable capacity last week, while gasoline production increased, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day. Imports of crude oil in the country averaged 7 million barrels per day last week, going up by 198,000 barrels per day. Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels last week.
Israel must invade Rafah to destroy Hamas…… Netanyahu: Nothing will stop us from fighting Hamas
The Israeli military ordered fresh evacuations from areas in Rafah Saturday as it prepared to expand operations in Gaza’s southernmost city. A post on social media site X by Avichay Adraee, the Israel Defense Forces spokesperson for the Arab media, called on people to leave Jabalia, as well as a refugee camp in the area, along with several other neighborhoods in the city. People living there were in a “dangerous combat zone,” he said, adding that Hamas was trying to rebuild its capabilities in the area. “Therefore everyone who is in those areas exposes themselves and their families to danger,” he added. “Go immediately to the shelters west of Gaza City,” he said. The warning came amid heavy clashes on the outskirts of the city between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants leaving the crucial nearby aid crossings inaccessible. More than 110,000 people have already fled north from the city. Adraee advised others to move to Al-Mawasi, a nearby coastal area where Israel has promised an “expanded humanitarian area” would await them.