Hamas’ senior political leader, Ismail Haniyeh (pictured), accused Israel of disrupting the peace talks following their attack on Al-Shifa, the largest hospital in Gaza.”The deliberate targeting of police officers and government officials in Gaza illustrates their efforts to sow chaos and perpetuate violence among our resilient people. This also reveals the occupation leaders’ endeavor to sabotage ongoing negotiations in Doha,” he posted on Telegram on Tuesday.The Israeli Defense Forces previously claimed that they had apprehended more than 300 individuals with connections to Hamas. Negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages were underway in Doha, Qatar indicated that a counter-proposal could be presented to Hamas in the near future. NN: Its about the famine and the threatened invasion.
Netanyahu approves Rafah military op plans
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved the plans for a military operation in the Gazan city of Rafah, his office announced on Friday. According to the statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is “prepared” for the campaign and evacuation of Palestinian civilians there. Moreover, Netanyahu dismissed Hamas’s demands presented in their latest proposal for a new ceasefire as “absurd,” insisting the organization requests too many prisoners to be released. Netanyahu’s seal of approval came after the international community, including reportedly the United States, warned Israel against a military operation in Rafah due to the high presence of displaced civilians there. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Friday that their troops continue operations and fighting in the west of the Gaza Strip’s Khan Yunis in the Hamad neighborhood.According to the official statement, IDF forces have been “eliminating terrorists, locating and destroying shafts and combat complexes.” One of the underground tunnels found was about 200 meters long, and was “used by the terrorist organization Hamas,” IDF said. It was also noted that, among other types of weapons, “grenades, RPG missiles, explosives, and rocket launchers” were found.
Oil Prices Set for a Strong Weekly Gain on Demand Revisions
Crude oil prices were set for a weekly gain of about 4% after the International Energy Agency became the latest forecaster to suggest oil demand might turn out to be stronger than previously expected this year. The IEA said Thursday that it now expects oil demand this year to grow by 1.3 million bpd, up from 1.2 million bpd last month. The agency cited maritime transport disruptions due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea that are adding demand for fuel. The IEA also revised its supply forecast, but downwards. It now expects additional supply this year at 800,000 bpd. As a result, the forecast, which last month said the oil market would be in surplus, now says it will face a deficit later in the year. The agency noted, however, that lukewarm economic growth would continue to act as a headwind for prices even as other agencies such as the IMF revised their global GDP growth outlook upwards. A series of fresh drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries also contributed to the price rally this week, especially after the energy ministry said these attacks had led to a 1.5% decline in fuel exports in February. There were drone attacks on refineries in Russia last month as well. The latest weekly inventory figures from the United States were also bullish for prices, featuring sizeable drawdowns in fuel inventories that suggested stronger demand. As a result of the rally, which brought Brent crude to over $85 per barrel on Thursday, traders started taking profits, eventually bringing prices lower. Even so, the international benchmark was trading above $85 per barrel in midmorning trade in Asia today. NN: No i have not been sleeping. This is a complicated market with incredible volume of AI fake news. Remember today is option roll over. So the gang is making sure their options expire in the money. I am putting together for a the longest trade recommendation i have ever written.
Russia sees oil exports increasing in 2024
Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin announced on Thursday that the country’s oil exports will likely rise in 2024. At a public council, Sorokin explained that this would happen due to “unplanned maintenance at refineries.” “The situation is stable, but the primary [oil refining] will be reduced,” he detailed.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed on Thursday in its Oil Market Report that the global market is anticipated to encounter a deficit throughout the year. The report now assumes that OPEC+ voluntary cuts will remain in effect through 2024, adjusting the market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit.
Global oil demand is set to rise by an unexpected 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the first quarter of 2024, buoyed by a more optimistic outlook for the United States and increased bunkering. Despite an upward revision of 110 kb/d from last month’s report, growth is expected to decelerate from 2.3 mb/d in 2023 to 1.3 mb/d in 2024. World oil production is projected to drop by 870 kb/d in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 due to weather-related shutdowns and new restrictions from OPEC+. Meanwhile, the global supply in 2024 is forecasted to increase by 800 kb/d to 102.9 mb/d despite a downward adjustment to OPEC+ output.
Oil Prices Climb on Demand Optimism
OPEC repeated it expected global oil demand to expand by 2.25 million barrels daily this year. The forecast was accompanied by a prediction of stronger than previously expected economic growth. “While some downside risks persist, a continuation of the expected momentum from the beginning of the year could result in additional upside potential for global economic growth in 2024,” OPEC said. There also appears to be a strong belief that the Fed will start cutting rates in the summer even though the central bank has not given any indications about that, still wary about inflation figures. These rose 0.4% in February from 0.3% in January but analysts seem firm in their perception that inflation is in fact slowing down. At the same time, the American Petroleum Institute reported inventory draws in both crude oil and fuels, which also helped push prices higher and supported OPEC’s view on oil demand. The Energy Information Administration is reporting inventory figures later today. If it also reports a draw, it would be the first one after seven consecutive weeks of builds, Bloomberg noted in a report. On the other hand, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. oil production could grow more than previously expected this year, suggesting headwinds for prices in the form of non-OPEC production growth remain very much in place. Bearish factors can be found in OPEC, too, with Iraq once again exceeding its production quotas—for the second month in a row in February.NN: Oil for now is ignoring demand destructin.
UK’s industrial production down 0.2% in January……Eurozone’s industrial production down by 3.2% in January
Production output in the United Kingdom decreased by 0.2% in January compared to the previous month, the Office for National Statistics revealed in a report on Wednesday. On an annual level, the reading rose by 0.5%. The main contributors to the monthly decline were water supply sewerage, which dropped 2.2%, and mining and quarrying, which went down 1.3%. On the other hand, electricity and gas increased by 0.5%, while manufacturing output remained flat. In the three months to January 2024, production output dropped 0.2% compared to the previous three-month period.
Adidas net sales fall 7.6% to €4.8B in Q4
Adidas AG reported on Wednesday that its net sales declined by 7.6% to €4.8 billion during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. The company’s operating loss landed at €377 million compared to the €724 million loss from the fourth quarter a year earlier. Net loss attributable to shareholders stood at €379 million in comparison to the year before when it came to €512 million, while diluted earnings per share from continuing and discontinued operations were at €2.13, increasing 25.9% in comparison to the same three-month period a year prior. For the full 2024, Adidas projects its operating profit to be around €500 million. “Although by far not good enough, 2023 ended better than what I had expected at the beginning of the year. Despite losing a lot of Yeezy revenue and a very conservative sell-in strategy, we managed to have flat revenues […] With the exception of the US, we now have healthy inventories everywhere,” CEO Bjorn Gulden mentioned. NN: : they went all in China. BIGE MISTAKE
Eurozone’s industrial production down by 3.2% in January
Industrial production decreased 3.2% in the Eurozone and 2.1% in the European Union in January, the bloc’s statistical office, Eurostat, revealed in a preliminary report issued on Wednesday. Year-on-year, the figure went down by 6.7% in the euro area and 5.7% in the EU.
In the euro area, there was a pronounced decrease in the production of capital goods by 14.5%, alongside smaller declines in durable and non-durable consumer goods. However, the intermediate goods and energy sectors saw increases of 2.6% and 0.5%, respectively. The EU mirrored these trends closely, with similar shifts in sectoral production levels. At the national level, Ireland, Malta, and Estonia experienced the most significant monthly decreases in industrial production, while Poland, Slovenia, and Lithuania recorded the highest increases. On an annual basis, the largest declines were observed in Ireland, Estonia, and Bulgaria, contrasting with notable gains in Slovenia, Greece, and Denmark.
IEA, OPEC Divergence on Oil Demand
- Reuters this week reported that the divergence between IEA and OPEC demand numbers is the largest in 16 years.
- The IEA predicted last year that oil demand would peak before 2030.
- OPEC has a vested interest in stronger global demand, so there may well be an overestimation bias in its outlooks.
Ever since the International Energy Agency switched from a pure-play information provider to an advocate of the energy transition, its forecasts about oil demand have shifted to increasingly reflect this advocacy. This has led to a growing divergence between the IEA’s and OPEC’s outlooks on the future of the commodity, increasing the risk of confusion among analysts and investors. The question “Who’s right?” has become a legitimate one. To begin with, it’s worth noting that neither authority is completely impartial. OPEC has a vested interest in stronger global demand, so there may well be an overestimation bias in its outlooks. The IEA, on the other hand, acts like it has a vested interest in the energy transition, which has led it to regularly underestimate oil demand, with its most marked departure from reality to date contained in the original Net Zero Roadmap. NN: Their is plenty of proof global is plunging. That is why OPEC is trying to cut production.
Biden in a hot mic moment shows his growing frustration with Netanyahu…… Biden reportedly to limit aid to Israel after a Rafah invasion………. Netanyahu responds to Biden hot mic remark
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden ‘s growing frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to mount, with the Democrat captured on a hot mic saying that he and the Israeli leader will need to have a “come to Jesus meeting.” The comments by Biden came as he spoke with Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., on the floor of the House chamber following Thursday night’s State of the Union address. In the exchange, Bennet congratulates Biden on his speech and urges the president to keep pressing Netanyahu on growing humanitarian concerns in Gaza. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were also part of the brief conversation.
Biden then responds using Netanyahu’s nickname, saying, “I told him, Bibi, and don’t repeat this, but you and I are going to have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting.”
Biden reportedly to limit aid to Israel after a Rafah invasion
United States President Joe Biden is allegedly considering conditioning future military aid to Israel if the country goes forward with a sizeable invasion of Rafah, Politico reported, citing four US officials. “It’s something he’s definitely thought about,” one of the officials told the news agency. Biden shared with MSNBC on Saturday that “The defense of Israel is still critical. So there’s no red line [where] I’m going to cut off all weapons so they don’t have the Iron Dome to protect them,” stressing, however, that “You cannot have 30,000 more Palestinians dead.” Officials cited by the news agency claimed that Biden may limit future weapons transfers to Israel should the country launch a new military operation that would further endanger Palestinian lives.
Netanyahu responds to Biden hot mic remark
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded Monday to President Biden’s hot mic remark after the State of the Union address where he suggested he needs to have a meeting with the prime minister over the escalating situation in Gaza. Netanyahu was asked Monday on “Fox & Friends” to respond to Biden’s comment that he planned to have a “come to Jesus” meeting with the prime minister about the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza. Fox News host Will Cain asked Netanyahu what a “come to Jesus meeting” means to him. “I don’t know. I’m not familiar with the term, even though Jesus wasn’t born that far away from here,” Netanyahu responded. “I can tell you that if it means having a heart-to-heart conversation, we’ve had that plenty of times over the 40 years that I’ve known Joe Biden and over the 12 or 13 conversations that we’ve had since the beginning of the war.” Netanyahu said on “Fox & Friends” that Israel will not be “getting off the gas” in its Gaza attacks. He said that while Israel will try to minimize civilian casualties, its priority is to defeat Hamas, even if that means invading Rafah. “Well, I’m telling you that we’re not getting off the gas. I’m telling you that we have to take care of Israel’s security in our future, and that requires eliminating the terrorist army. That’s a prerequisite for victory. That victory is important not only for us, it’s important for the civilized world as we’re fighting these barbarians.
“And that’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to defeat Hamas. We’re going to do what is necessary to minimize civilian casualties, do the humanitarian aid, something that we believe in. But we have to destroy this terrorist Nazi army. Otherwise, there’s no future for anyone in the Middle East,” he added later on.
Biden has been ramping up his public frustrations with Netanyahu in recent weeks as Israel plans to invade the Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million civilians had fled to seek refuge from the war. He announced during his State of the Union address that the U.S. would be setting up a temporary pier near the territory to deliver more humanitarian supplies. Biden said in an interview with MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart on Saturday that Netanyahu was “hurting Israel more than helping.”
“What’s happening is he has a right to defend Israel, a right to continue to pursue Hamas,” Biden said. “But he must, he must, he must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.”
Netanyahu responded to Biden’s remarks to Capehart in an interview with Politico. “I don’t know exactly what the president meant, but if he meant by that, that I’m pursuing private policies against the majority, the wish of the majority of Israelis, and that this is hurting the interests of Israel, then he’s wrong on both counts,” Netanyahu said. NN: Biden is feeling the heat as the world turns on Israel.
NN:
Psalm 83
O God, Do Not Keep Silence
A Song. A Psalm of Asaph.
1O God, do not keep silence;
do not hold your peace or be still, O God!
2For behold, your enemies make an uproar;
those who hate you have raised their heads.
3They lay crafty plans against your people;
they consult together against your treasured ones.
4They say, “Come, let us wipe them out as a nation;
let the name of Israel be remembered no more!”
5For they conspire with one accord;
against you they make a covenant—
6the tents of Edom and the Ishmaelites,
Moab and the Hagrites,
7Gebal and Ammon and Amalek,
Philistia with the inhabitants of Tyre;
8Asshur also has joined them;
they are the strong arm of the children of Lot
Hamas outlines group’s ceasefire demands……. Guterres: Rafah attack to push Gazans into new ‘circle of hell’
In a recent address, Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s political bureau, Highlighted the group’s conditions for truce negotiations in the ongoing conflict with Israel in Gaza.Haniyeh emphasized the need for a ceasefire, a demand yet to be accepted by Israel. Despite reaching out to interlocutors just before the speech, Haniyeh expressed disappointment, noting the lack of confirmation from the occupation forces about halting the conflict. He further stated that Israel has not committed to allowing displaced individuals to return to their original areas.
Guterres: Rafah attack to push Gazans into new ‘circle of hell’
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Monday that Israel’s military operation in the Gaza border city of Rafah would lead Palestinians to “an even deeper circle of hell.” Speaking to reporters, the UN chief reiterated his call for a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas, and also appealed for the release of all hostages captured by the militant group on October 7. Additionally, Guterres urged all parties involved in the conflict to eliminate “all obstacles to ensure the delivery of lifesaving aid at the speed and massive scale required” to the Gaza Strip.
Concerns About Chinese Demand Grow
Chinese oil demand is back in the spotlight, exerting pressure on oil prices to start the new trading week with a loss, extending losses booked last week. “Worries over weak demand in China outweighed the extension of supply cuts by OPEC+,” a Nissan Securities analyst told Reuters.
The worries came after the research arm of state-owned Chinese energy major CNPC forecast last week that China is entering a slow oil demand period thanks to the uptake of electric cars and LNG-fueled trucks.
Growth in EV sales and LNG-powered trucks would shave between 10% and 12% off the country’s demand for gasoline and diesel just this year, Lu Ruquan, president of CNPC’s Economics and Technology Research Institute, said last Friday. There are also pessimistic expectations about the coming inflation report in the U.S., due to be released tomorrow. Economists polled by Reuters expect the February rate to have remained unchanged at 3.1%. This would interfere with the Fed’s plans to start cutting interest rates, many believe. Lower rates normally boost oil demand.
On the bullish side, geopolitical risk remains the biggest factor although disruption of supply has yet to materialize amid continued fighting in the Middle East.
“We see the current price level as just about right for the present demand and supply dynamics,” Han Zhong Liang, an investment strategist at Standard Chartered, told Bloomberg. “Unless there’s a significant shift in either side of the equation, such as a flare-up of Middle East tensions that significantly impacts supply, oil is likely to keep trading rangebound.” This week will see the latest releases of monthly oil market reports from OPEC and the IEA, which should provide a glimpse into the oil market balance. The EIA is releasing its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook this week as well. OPEC’s report is out on Tuesday, followed by STEO on Wednesday, and the IEA’s Oil Market Report on Thursday. NN: Our binary trade in oil has changed. So we change