Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his call for the IDF to draw up a plan for evacuating Palestinian civilians from the southermost city in the Strip.
Israeli officials have privately admitted that the IDF has no “precise” strategy for the invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Bloomberg reported that “officials acknowledge in private they have no precise strategy for how to [attack in Rafah], how long it will take or where the people will go.” Speaking to Bloomberg on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his call for the IDF to draw up a plan for evacuating Palestinian civilians from the southermost city in the Strip.
Egypt: Israel must tread carefully before deciding on Rafah offensive
Earlier on Thursday, it was reported that Egypitan officials told Israeli counterparts to “carefully study any step” before launching a military offensive into Rafah. The officials told their Israeli counterparts that encroaching into Rafah would “increase the risk to the lives of” the 132 hostages remaining in Gaza, and called on the IDF to “prepare to bear the consequences” of such invasion. NN: Israel is trapped. It cannot invade Rafah with over a million displaced people Hamas will use as shields. And create a humanitarian crises that they will own.
Israeli Minister Without Portfolio Benny Gantz, who is also part of the Israeli war cabinet, said on Wednesday that “initial signs” show “progress can be made” toward a new hostage release framework.”We will not miss any opportunity to bring the [hostages] home,” Gantz underscored during the press conference in Tel Aviv, stressing that “no stone will be left unturned” until all those abducted on October 7 have safely been brought back home. However, Gantz clarified that without the outline of the possible hostage release deal, Israeli forces will continue to operate in Rafah during Ramadan. Gantz also expressed his support for the Knesset’s rejection of unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood, stressing that establishing a Palestinian state would be a “reward” for terrorism. NN: Getting closer all the time.
Oil prices up, WTI over 1%
The prices of oil futures rose on Wednesday as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept on lifting investors’ worries about a possible escalation of conflict, which could disrupt the global supply of the commodity. Earlier, Israel carried out airstrikes in Damascus, Syria, leaving two people dead and it confirmed that it destroyed a Hamas tunnel. In addition, Iran blamed Israel for a ‘terrorist’ attack against a natural gas pipeline. Also, Houthis kept targeting international vessels in the Red Sea.
Israel has not yet made a decision to dispatch a delegation to Cairo for further discussions regarding a potential hostage release agreement with Hamas, The Times of Israel reported on Wednesday, citing an Israeli official. According to the source, the country is being “cautious” and is awaiting evidence that Hamas has “softened its position” before sending negotiators. Earlier today, the Ynet news site cited a Saudi newspaper and reported that an Israeli delegation could potentially be in Cairo as early as today, due to the group’s allegedly more flexible position regarding the terms of the ceasefire agreement.
Israeli delegation reportedly to arrive in Cairo today
An Israeli delegation is scheduled to travel to Cairo today to continue talks about a potential exchange of hostages and a ceasefire agreement with Hamas representatives, the Ynet news site reported on Wednesday, citing the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq. “There is progress in Egypt’s discussions with Hamas regarding the deal. Hamas has softened its positions and Egypt is working to achieve similar flexibility with the Israeli delegation as well,” the newspaper wrote. The report comes after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh arrived in Cairo yesterday, following stalled negotiations for a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal that are being mediated by American, Qatari, and Egyptian officials.
Prices of crude oil for front-month settlements tumbled on Tuesday after data showed that economic growth in both Germany and Britain stagnated, with Berlin and London entering a technical recession in the closing quarter of 2023. Economic uncertainty appeared to raise concerns about the commodity’s demand thus briefly offsetting supply pressures driven by the Middle East turmoil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for April contracts dropped 1.96% to $76.91 per barrel at 10:44 am ET. Brent for the same month’s deliveries was down 1.66% to $82.14 a barrel. NN: Do not forget the slowdown in China and the good ole USA. Add to all this the war premium coming out of oil as Israel is forced into not only a cease fire but a complete withdrawal from Gaza.
China made its biggest ever cut to mortgage rates on Tuesday, as the authorities try to support the struggling property sector, though the response from stock markets was muted. The People’s Bank of China said that the country’s lenders would reduce their five-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 25 basis points to 3.95%, a bigger cut than expected and the first since June last year. The one-year LPR was maintained at 3.45%. The lowering of borrowing costs was “a logical inevitability,” said Wei Yao, economist at Societe Generale, as Beijing battles to support an economy buffeted by a collapsing property market that has hit consumer sentiment amid slow growth and a deflationary environment. “This rate matters specifically for the housing sector as it is the reference rate for household mortgages and long-term corporate loans,” Yao added. “Clearly, the PBoC wants to direct its easing to the housing market, which has continued to weaken around the turn of the year.” The loosening of monetary policy is just the latest in a number of moves by China’s government to lift investor sentiment after the Shanghai Composite index hit a five-year low at the start of February. In recent weeks Beijing has said it would support the stock market by encouraging government-linked funds to purchase equities, and on Feb. 7 it replaced the head securities regulator with a veteran deemed more market- friendley. However, the response to Tuesday’s rate-cut news was muted, with the Shanghai Composite adding 0.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 0.5%.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said the latest move by Beijing shows the government is intensifying its efforts to stabilize the stock market and bolster the economic recovery amid ongoing challenges, but that more was needed.
“To be sure, Beijing has cobbled together a rescue package aimed at purchasing stocks, signaling a proactive approach to addressing market turmoil. The breadth of measures is encouraging but likely to lead to another chorus of calls for much greater fiscal and monetary stimulus,” said Innes. NN: China the lynch pin of the consumption part of our oil trade is in a massive deflation. Along with Euro pe. Which means oil demand as reported by the IEA if falling.
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 19 (Reuters) – The United States has proposed a rival draft United Nations Security Council resolution calling for a temporary ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and opposing a major ground offensive by its ally Israel in Rafah, according to the text seen by Reuters.
The move comes after the U.S. signalled it would veto on Tuesday an Algerian-drafted resolution — demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire — over concerns it could jeopardize talks between the U.S., Egypt, Israel and Qatar that seek to broker a pause in the war and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Until now, Washington has been averse to the word ceasefire in any U.N. action on the Israel-Hamas war, but the U.S. text echoes language that President Joe Biden said he used last week in conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It would see the Security Council “underscore its support for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza as soon as practicable, based on the formula of all hostages being released, and calls for lifting all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale.”The United States does “not plan to rush” to a vote and intends to allow time for negotiations, a senior U.S. administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said on Monday. To pass, a resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the U.S., France, Britain, Russia or China. The U.S. draft text “determines that under current circumstances a major ground offensive into Rafah would result in further harm to civilians and their further displacement including potentially into neighboring countries.” Israel plans to storm Rafah, where more than 1 million of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza have sought shelter, prompting international concern that an assault would sharply worsen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The U.N. has warned it “could lead to a slaughter.”
The draft U.S. resolution says such a move “would have serious implications for regional peace and security, and therefore underscores that such a major ground offensive should not proceed under current circumstances.” Washington traditionally shields Israel from U.N. action and has twice vetoed council resolutions since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas militants. But it has also abstained twice, allowing the council to adopt resolutions that aimed to boost aid to Gaza and called for extended pauses in fighting. This is the second time since Oct. 7 that Washington has proposed a Security Council resolution on Gaza. Russia and China vetoed its first attempt in late October.
While the U.S. was ready to protect Israel by vetoing the Algerian draft resolution on Tuesday, International Crisis Group U.N. Director Richard Gowan said Israel would be more concerned by the text Washington drafted. “The simple fact that the U.S. is tabling this text at all is a warning shot for Netanyahu,” he said. “It is the strongest signal the U.S. has sent at the U.N. so far that Israel cannot rely on American diplomatic protection indefinitely.” Israel’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the U.S. draft.
A second senior U.S. administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. draft does not suggest “anything about the dynamics of any particular relationship, whether that’s with the Israelis or any other partner we have.”
The draft U.S. text would condemn calls by some Israeli government ministers for Jewish settlers to move to Gaza and would reject any attempt at demographic or territorial change in Gaza that would violate international law.
The resolution would also reject “any actions by any party that reduce the territory of Gaza, on a temporary or permanent basis, including through the establishment officially or unofficially of so-called buffer zones, as well as the widespread, systematic demolition of civilian infrastructure.”
Reuters reported in December that Israel told several Arab states that it wants to carve out a buffer zone inside Gaza’s borders to prevent attacks after the war ends. NN: Israel is about to push things to far. And Biden with one eye glued to the Hamas Israel polling is about to shut off weapons and money to Israel.
UK’s Cameron calls for Gaza ceasefire ‘right now’
United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Cameron urged an immediate cessation of hostilities in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza while speaking to reporters on Monday in the Falkland Islands. “But let’s make that happen, let’s have the stop to the fighting right now, have that hostage release and then build on it from here. That’s what we need to happen rather than an offensive in Rafah,” Cameron added.
Instead of launching an offensive in Rafah, he called for a pause in the conflict to allow for the safe exit of hostages and the entry of humanitarian assistance.
The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said on Monday that 26 of 27 member states are urging the parties in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas to agree on an “immediate humanitarian pause that would lead to a sustainable ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip.”We also agreed that Israel needs to do more to facilitate aid and protect civilians,” the EU’s top diplomat stated during the press conference following the Foreign Affairs Council. However, Borrell did not reveal which country did not agree with the statement, but the media outlets reported, citing diplomatic sources, that it was Hungary. NN: The cries for a cease fire become louder and longer from more and more governments. I am afraid Israel will be forced to shut down operations before it get the job done.
Biden’s adviser reportedly to visit Israel, Egypt
United States National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk, (pictured) will allegedly visit Egypt and Israel during the week to discuss the possible Israeli military operation in the Gazan city of Rafah and efforts to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas, Axios reported, citing Israeli and US officials. McGurk will meet Egypt’s Director of the General Intelligence Directorate Abbas Kamel on Wednesday before talking with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday, according to the news agency. The reported visit will come after Netanyahu announced on Saturday that Israel will enter Rafah even if a ceasefire is agreed upon.
Israel said it will invade Rafah by March 10 if Hamas does not release the remaining hostages held inside Gaza. Benny Gantz, a member of the war cabinet, said the terror group has until Ramadan before Israeli forces are ordered into the southern city where more than a million refugees are sheltering.
“To those saying the price [of an offensive] is too high, I say this very clearly: Hamas has a choice – they can surrender, release the hostages, and the citizens of Gaza will be able to celebrate the holy holiday of Ramadan,” Mr Gantz said.
There has been widespread concern from Western allies, aid agencies and humanitarian groups over Israel’s impending offensive into Rafah. There are estimated to be more than 1.4 million Gazans who have fled to the densely populated city next to the border with Egypt. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said his government is considering a plan to relocate the refugees but has not published any details yet. On Sunday, in response to concerns from allies – including Joe Biden, the US president – over an assault on Rafah, he said: “Those who want to prevent us from operating in Rafah are essentially telling us: ‘Lose the war’.” Israel insists that the city on the Egypt border is the last remaining stronghold in Gaza of Hamas, and is harbouring the terror group’s leaders and architects of the October 7 attacks on Israel. Mr Gantz, an opposition leader who was invited into a “unity” cabinet at the start of the war, said: “The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know – if by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue everywhere, to include the Rafah area,” Gantz said. Around 130 hostages remain in Gaza, a fourth of whom are believed to be dead. Mr Gantz added that an offensive would be carried out in a coordinated manner and in conversation with Americans and Egyptians to facilitate an evacuation and “minimise the civilian casualties as much as possible”. On Monday, Josep Borrell, the European Union foreign policy chief, warned it would be “impossible” to avoid civilian casualties in an invasion of Rafah. The Hamas-controlled health ministry says 30,000 people have been killed so far in the Gaza war. Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, said the people of Rafah “can’t just disappear in the sky”. Mr Biden has phoned Mr Netanyahu twice to warn him against launching a military operation in Rafah without a credible plan to ensure the safety of civilians. Last week, Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, cautioned that Israel should “stop and think” before taking any further action in Rafah. He told reporters: “We think it is impossible to see how you can fight a war amongst these people. There’s nowhere for them to go.” It comes as Israel formally opposed international efforts to create a two-state solution. The government said the international community was trying to “unilaterally” impose the creation of a Palestinian state to bring about peace in the Middle East. Israel is also facing criticism over its policy in the West Bank, where the war in Gaza has emboldened illegal settler groups. On Monday, Spain, whose government has been a harsh critic of Israel’s war, said it will impose sanctions on violent Israeli settlers in the West Bank unilaterally if its European Union partners fail to reach an agreement on the issue. Jose Manuel Albares, the foreign minister, said Spain will push for the approval of such sanctions during a meeting of EU’s foreign ministers held in Brussels. “If there’s no agreement, Spain will proceed individually with these sanctions against the violent settlers,” Albares told reporters before the meeting. On Monday, Michael Martin, Ireland’s foreign minister, said he hoped the EU countries would unanimously approve these sanctions. Last week, French authorities banned 28 Israeli settlers from entering the country, accusing them of attacking Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. UN figures show that daily settler attacks have more than doubled since Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and the ensuing assault on the Palestinian enclave of Gaza. NN: Ramadan is the holiest month on the Islamic calendar. Israel is serious. Time will tell if Hamas is understanding that they are approaching a Zen moment. Remember before the tanks roll in over a million civilians need to roll out. Hard to see the evacuation time line. This could get real ugly real fast.
Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz has warned that unless Hamas frees all hostages held in Gaza by 10 March an offensive will be launched in Rafah. It is the first time Israel has said when its troops might enter Gaza’s overcrowded southern city.
Global opposition is growing to such an attack in Rafah, where some 1.5 million Palestinians are sheltering.
Earlier, the UN public health agency said a key Gaza hospital had ceased to function following an Israeli raid. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) entered the complex on Thursday, saying intelligence indicated hostages taken by Hamas were being held there. The IDF has described its operation in Nasser as “precise and limited”, accusing Hamas of “cynically using hospitals for terror”.
Speaking on Sunday, Mr Gantz, a former defence minister, said: “The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know – if by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue everywhere, to include the Rafah area”.
Ramadan – the Islamic holy month of fasting – this year begins on 10 March. Mr Gantz added that Israel would act in “a co-ordinated manner, facilitating the evacuation of civilians in dialogue with our American and Egyptian partners to minimise civilian casualties”. The Israeli war cabinet consists of the country’s top security officials. It was formed several days after Hamas-led gunmen attacked Israel on 7 October, killing at least 1,200 people and taking 253 hostages. Hamas is still holding about 130 hostages in Gaza, Israel believes. Mr Gantz’s reference to Egypt may serve to heighten speculation that Israel expects some Palestinians to cross out of the Gaza Strip and seek shelter on the Egyptian side of the border, where the authorities appear to be building a large walled enclosure for this purpose, says the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams. But Israeli officials have yet to give any details of an evacuation plan, he adds. With exactly three weeks to go before the start of Ramadan, reports from Rafah say that a few people are leaving, heading west towards the coast, but that most are still waiting, unsure what to do. Despite international pressure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to launch a ground assault on Rafah to eliminate Hamas gunmen there. In response to the 7 October attack by Hamas, Israel launched a military campaign in the Gaza Strip. More than 28,400 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have been killed and more than 68,000 wounded since the war began, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. The ministry says at least 127 Palestinians have been killed and 205 others injured in the past 24 hours. Despite the continued fighting in Gaza, efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have been taking place in Cairo in recent days – although Qatari mediators said progress was “not very promising”. Mr Netanyahu said he sent negotiators following a request from US President Joe Biden, but added they did not return for further discussions because Hamas’s demands were “delusional”. NN: Hamas got one thing right, It successfully calculated that Israel believed they wanted peace and prosperity for its people. From that point on they have made two serious mistakes, Hamas believed that as in the past Israel would do anything to get the hostages back. WRONG. Second mistake they beloved Israel would not have the stomach for door to tunnel fighting and massive human shield casualties, If Hamas waits to long their will be nothing to bargain with.
Netanyahu committed to total victory
Israel has destroyed 18 of 24 Hamas military battalions and has killed or wounded more than half of the militant group’s fighters, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday. Anything short of “total victory” would mean thousands of Israelis forced from their communities along the Gaza border could not return to their homes, he said. Eventually the militants would attack again and Iran, Hezbollah and others would “celebrate” while destroying the region, Netanyahu said. Israel has estimated Hamas had about 40,000 fighters at the start of the war.”We are on the way to total victory and I want to tell you that we are committed to it and will not give up on it,” Netanyahu told company commanders at the Armored Corps Memorial at Latrun, 15 miles west of Jerusalem. “We will not stop the war without achieving this goal of total victory.” Netanyahu spoke at his Likud party’s weekly faction meeting, emphasizing that cease-fire talks were continuing but that a deal is not near. Israel, he says, wants a deal similar to the one that resulted in the release of more than 100 hostages in November. But no deal for the remaining hostages will be tied to a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, he said. “Hamas has demands that we will not agree to,” Netanyahu said.
Crude oil futures Friday posted a weekly gain as simmering tensions in the Middle East overshadowed stubborn inflation in the U.S. and a murky demand outlook for the year. The West Texas Intermediate contract for March gained $1.16, or 1.49%, to settle at $79.19 a barrel. April Brent futures added 61 cents a barrel to settle at $83.47. U.S. crude gained about 3% for the week, settling at its highest price since Nov. 6. The global benchmark rose 1.5% for the week, settling at the highest level since Jan. 26.
“This is geopolitics with flashing lights, it points right to specs taking advantage of the situation,” Bob Yawger, managing director and energy futures strategist of Mizuho America, said of speculative traders. “They’re rolling the dice expecting something will happen.”
Tensions are rising on the border between Israel and Lebanon, once again raising fears that the war in Gaza could spread elsewhere in the Middle East. Israel bombed southern Lebanon Wednesday in retaliation for rocket attacks in northern Israel. Hezbollah, the powerful militia allied with Iran, has vowed to strike back against Israel. Israel is also vowing to press on with its offensive in Gaza to the southern city of Rafah, raising tensions with Egypt, which shares a border with the city. The oil market this week largely shrugged off stubborn inflation in the U.S. as well as a murky demand outlook for the year. Wholesale prices rose more than expected in January, according to a Labor Department report Friday. Consumer prices were also higher than anticipated last month, according to data released Tuesday. Stubborn inflation is reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates soon. Lower rates typically stimulate economic growth, which in turn fuels crude demand. Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners, said traders were taking Friday’s wholesale price data with a grain of salt after those who traded off hot consumer prices earlier in the week got burnt. “Oil is just waddling up since nobody wants to be short into the weekend when the tailwinds favor oil prices,” Raj said. Oil prices rallied Thursday after the market largely dismissed a weak global demand forecast for 2024 from the International Energy Agency. The IEA forecast that worldwide crude oil demand growth would slow by half this year’s pace, to 1.2 million barrels per day this year, compared to 2.3 million bpd in 2023. Supply is expected to exceed demand, with production outside OPEC rising by 1.7 million bpd, according to IEA. But OPEC on Tuesday predicted a much tighter market this year, with demand growing by 2.2 million bpd, outpacing production growth outside the cartel of what it said would total 1.2 million bpd. “There is and has been a yawning chasm in demand estimates,” Tamas Varga, an analyst with oil broker PVM, wrote Friday in a note. “It is always tricky and challenging to predict the medium- to long-term prospects but the difference of opinions in global oil consumption for this year and the individual quarters, even for the current one, is clearly puzzling.” NN: I see this pop in oil as a blip on the radar screen. And as previously noted this Rafa siege is the last hurrah. Not that rooting out Hamas will be completed. It will end because the screams of human rights violations will become unbearable, And oil that is now peeking will crash.