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Hamas says senior official killed in Israeli attack in Lebanon

Hamas Deputy Chief Saleh al-Arouri was killed in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, in an attack by Israeli forces, the militant group’s security officials said Tuesday. Earlier, local Lebanese media reported the attack that rocked the streets of the Dahyeh district in southern Beirut and a well-known Hezbollah stronghold. Saleh al-Arouri, a founding member of Hamas’ military wing and head of operations in the West Bank, has been a significant figure in the organization’s activities. His death in an Israeli airstrike represents a significant blow to Hamas and a substantial escalation in regional conflicts with Israel.

Before the recent conflict that began on October 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had already expressed his intention to target al-Arouri. Israel has not yet commented on the events, nor have the Lebanese authorities.

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Oil rise over 2.5% after Iran sends ship to Red Sea

Oil futures prices experienced an increase of 2.5% on Tuesday following the entry of the Iran Alborz warship into the Red Sea waters on Monday. The action, believed to be a show of support for the Houthi rebels, has escalated tensions in the Middle East. Worries about the supply of the commodity seem to have intensified after the United States Naval Force’s helicopters repelled a Houthi assault on a Maersk merchant vessel in the area. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for deliveries in February 2024 jumped 2.51% at 5:54 am ET and went for $73.46 per barrel. At the same time, Brent for March 2024 settlements surged 2.56% to sell for $78.98 per barrel. NN: It looks to me Iran is being dragged into a direct conformation  with the US by the  hooks in their Jaw we talked about.

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Israel moving closer by the day to all out war with Hezbollah

ALINA SELYUKH, HOST:

Israeli military officials say they are stepping up their offensive in Gaza as tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians continue to flee into the southernmost corner of the enclave. United Nations officials are warning about the humanitarian situation, especially in southern Gaza, where overcrowding, food shortages and spreading disease have reached critical levels. Cross-border artillery exchanges between Lebanon and Israel have also increased in recent days, with Israel issuing stern warnings to Hezbollah militants. NPR’s Carrie Kahn joins us now from Tel Aviv. Good morning, Carrie.

CARRIE KAHN, BYLINE: Hello.

SELYUKH: So what can you tell us about the stepped-up offensive deep into Gaza by Israel’s military?

KAHN: Fighting has intensified, with Israel stepping up air, land and sea bombardments in recent days. Both Hamas and Israel’s military have reported intense combat in central Gaza and around the second-largest city, Khan Younis, and even in southern Gaza, where Israel has told most Gazans to go for their safety. The U.N. says 100,000 more Palestinians have fled in recent days to the south. According to Gaza’s health ministry, more than 21,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war now. The U.N. secretary-general yesterday again called for a humanitarian cease-fire and release of all hostages that Hamas is still holding captive from the October 7 attack on Israel. Antonio Guterres said he is concerned about further spillover of the conflict throughout the region.

SELYUKH: And what is the situation along the Lebanese-Israeli border in the north?

KAHN: Cross-border artillery and rocket fire have been a daily occurrence there all week, with many already happening today. We’ve heard some – warning sirens have been constant in northern Israeli towns. Israel says it’s carried out extensive strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon near the Israeli border just in the last couple days. Israeli military officials this week issued some very stern warnings to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. One member of the Israeli war cabinet was quoted earlier this week warning the militants that Israel could do in Beirut what it has done in Gaza if Hezbollah continues its attacks into northern Israel.

SELYUKH: And what’s the latest on any proposals for a cease-fire or an exchange of hostages?

KAHN: Earlier in the week, there was an Egyptian proposal, and now another attempt by Qatar is being discussed, but neither appears to be moving forward. The proposals call for withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and a political resolution to the conflict. But Israel still wants to press ahead with its military goal of crushing Hamas. Meanwhile, last night, an interview of one of the released hostages, Mia Schem, is getting much play on major news outlets here in Israel. Here’s a small excerpt from Channel 13.

SELYUKH: That’s NPR’s Carrie Kahn in Tel Aviv. Thank you for sharing all this.

KAHN: Thank you for having me.

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Iranian warship enters Red Sea….. US aircraft carrier Ford withdrawn from Med

Iran’s Alborz warship has reportedly entered the Red Sea, emerging at a time of heightened tensions in the key shipping route amid ongoing attacks on vessels in response to the Israel-Hamas war.  Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Monday that the vessel had entered the Red Sea through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, though it was unclear precisely when. Tasnim did not give details of the Alborz’s mission but said Iranian warships had been operating in open waters to secure shipping routes, combat piracy, and carry out other tasks since 2009. The Alvand class destroyer had been a part of the Iranian navy’s 34th fleet, and patrolled the Gulf of Aden, the north of the Indian Ocean and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait as far back as 2015, according to Iran’s Press TV.  The news comes as the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group – which was moved to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea following Hamas’ deadly Oct. 7 invasion of Israel – is heading back to its home in Norfolk, Va. NN: Iran rushes in as the US rushes out. Runs away might be a better way to put it. Bottom line this is  clearly another major step closer to a major confrontation. US deploying World War II tactics will end in a major defeat. The days of naval escorts for protecting ships at sea in the era of smart rockets and drones will not work.

US aircraft carrier to return from deployment to Mediterranean

The United States aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, deployed to the eastern Mediterranean following the attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7, is set to return to its home port in the coming days, according to a statement from the US Navy. The carrier was sent to contribute to regional deterrence and defense posture and its return is part of scheduled preparations for future deployments. The new-generation aircraft carrier is a 100,000-ton nuclear-powered ship equipped with advanced technologies. NN: This is the biggest in the world. The pentagon did not want to risk the humiliation of a very good chance their latest toy suffered a direct hit from Iran.

 

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EIA: U.S. Crude Oil Production Rates Sag In October

Crude oil production in the United States fell in the month of October, according to new data released by the Energy Information Administration on Friday. According to the latest data, average U.S. crude oil production fell from 13.252 million barrels per day in September to 13.248 million bpd in October—the first monthly decline in average daily production rates since April, but still the second-highest production rate in the history of the U.S. oil industry, behind only September. It is also 1.377 million bpd higher than pre-pandemic levels seen in January 2019. But while the daily average was down month over month, total production for October rose to 410.7 million barrels, compared to 397.6 million barrels in September—a difference of 13.1 million barrels, which roughly accounts for the extra day. While production rates were down month over month from September to October, EIA data shows an increase in production rates from January to October. U.S. crude production in January totaled 389.6 million barrels—or 12.6 million barrels per day—compared to the 410.7 million in October—or 13.2 million barrels per day. The EIA had previously forecast that U.S. crude oil production for October would average 13.257 million bpd. By state, Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, and Alaska account for a 57,000 bpd increase in production, while the largest declines were seen in North Dakota (-31,000 bpd) and the Gulf of Mexico (-40,000 bpd), according to the EIA data.

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Israeli strike allegedly kills 11 IRGC members in Syria

Alleged Israeli airstrikes on the Damascus International Airport, conducted on Thursday, killed 11 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Al Arabiya reported on Friday, citing anonymous sources.According to the report, IRGC members were waiting for a high-ranking  delegation at the airport when the attack occurred. Earlier this week, it was reported that an Israeli strike on Damascus killed Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a senior adviser in IRGC. After that, Iran warned that Israel “will pay the price for this crime.”

Syrian air defenses repel ‘Israeli air aggression’

Syrian air defenses hastily responded to an “Israeli air aggression,” The Times of Israel reported, citing Syria’s state-run news agency SANA. The attack was launched from the direction of Lebanon and targeted a number of locations surrounding Damascus. Some material damage was reported, but no detailed information was given. This attack came following earlier strikes in the vicinity of Damascus, some of which caused the Damascus Airport to be out of service.

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Record Global Gasoline Consumption Defies IEA Forecast

Global gasoline consumption hit a record 26.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, exceeding the 2019 peak and defying estimates that the last pre-pandemic year was the time when gasoline demand worldwide would peak.  The data, reported by Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, shows the latest figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The same agency, which has been strongly advocating for a faster energy transition for years, had predicted just this year that 2019 was the peak demand for gasoline globally.   Back in June, in its Oil 2023 annual report, the IEA said that “Growth is set to reverse after 2023 for gasoline and after 2026 for transport fuels overall.” “Gasoline demand will be disproportionately impacted as EVs progressively replace vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE),” the IEA said, adding that “This means that the fuel is likely to exhibit the earliest and most pronounced peak in demand.” And it also said that “Usage will never return to 2019 levels and the post pandemic peak could come as early as 2023. Following a brief plateau, the decline is forecast to accelerate from 2026 onwards.”

However, the IEA’s latest figures not only show that 2019 wasn’t the peak demand year for global gasoline consumption, but that demand in both 2023 and 2024 would surpass the pre-pandemic levels.

Per the latest data reported by Bloomberg’s Blas, gasoline demand globally is set to further rise next year, to top 27 million bpd.  In the June report, the IEA predicted that “Following a brief plateau, the decline is forecast to accelerate from 2026 onwards, with 2028 demand 900 kb/d below that of 2019.”  The IEA also famously said earlier this year that global demand for all three fossil fuels – oil, natural gas, and coal – is set to peak before 2030, which undermines the case for increasing investment in fossil fuels.

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Oil Markets Face Israel-Hamas War Risk

  • Iran, has been looking to catalyse an expansion of the direct conflict between Israel and Hamas into a wider war between Islam and the Jewish state of Israel.
  • EU source: the Iranian-backed Houthis are not acting against vessels in and around the Red Sea without Beijing’s tacit approval.
  • If China did take its foot off the brake with Iran, then the chances of an embargo on oil exports first to Israel and then to its allies would dramatically increase.

The rise in the benchmark Brent oil price from just over US$72 per barrel (pb) to above US$80pb in a week highlights that the risk premium attached to the Israel-Hamas war is still very much in play in the global oil markets. Although other factors played a part in the oil price rise, a significant part of the increase was due to the rising danger posed to tankers moving oil from the Middle East to Europe via the Red Sea. This has long been the shortest and generally cheapest method to move oil via ships from east to west. However, several vessels – supposedly linked in some way to Israel, but some are not at all connected – have been seized by Yemen’s Houthi militants. The group remains overtly backed by Iran and covertly backed by Iran’s own sponsors, most notably in this instance Russia, but also China. Given the crucial importance of this transit route and the area surrounding to the global oil markets, things may become a lot worse very fast. In many ways, the problem for ships of countries seen as aligned to the U.S. travelling through the Red Sea begins before the Red Sea is reached – in fact, somewhere east of the Oman coast of the Arabian Sea, which then flows into the Gulf of Aden, on the south coast of Yemen. It is at this juncture that ships must pass through the crucial chokepoint of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This 16-mile-width waterway flows between the west coast of Yemen on the one side, and the east coasts initially of Djibouti and then of Eritrea on the other, before it joins the Red Sea. As it stands, never has the literal translation of the chokepoint’s name from Arabic – ‘The Gate of Grief’ – been more apposite than it is now. From the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War that effectively began on 7 October, the Middle East’s leading Shia Islamic power, Iran, has been looking to catalyse an expansion of the direct conflict between those two protagonists into a wider war between Islam and the Jewish state of Israel, which it thinks could draw the U.S. and its allies into another no-win war in the region. Tehran’s attempts to mobilise Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants – a much bigger force than Hamas, which Iran also supports with money, weapons, and training – into a simultaneous full-scale war against Israel have so far been unsuccessful, due in large part to the extraordinarily accomplished diplomacy of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his team. Similarly unsuccessful – and for the same reason – has been Iran’s call for an embargo on the exports of oil by Islamic states to Israel.

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Novak: Oil prices may range between $80-$85 in 2024

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that the Brent oil prices in 2024 could be in the range of $80 and $85 per barrel. In an interview with Russia-24 TV channel, Novak noted that Russian oil and gas revenue will reach approximately 9 trillion rubles by the end of 2023. He added that about 57% of Russia’s total export revenues came from the fuel and energy sector, stressing that many countries want to buy Russian oil and petroleum products. Furthermore, the official said that he expects the first liquefied natural gas shipments from the Arctic LNG 2 plant to start in the first quarter of 2024, stressing that Russia proved that it is capable of working successfully under Western sanctions. NN: We have in essence a Put…. a floor under our oil  trade at $80 a barrel.  And with 2 of the 3 major oil producing regions in the world at war, I predict OVER $100 Brent. I’ll take a deal like this every day of the week.

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US: 12 drones, 3 missiles downed in Red Sea

https://youtu.be/N9tozCflir8

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) revealed on Tuesday that its assets shot down 12 one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles, and two land attack cruise missiles during today’s operations in the Red Sea. The command said that the USS Laboon warship navigating those waters as part of the international mission to secure trade and multirole fighters Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet intercepted the arms route, after being allegedly fired by the Houthis. The attacks started at 6:30 am (Yemen’s time) and lasted over ten hours. “There was no damage to ships in the area or reported injuries,” they said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. During the day, a Houthi spokesperson claimed the attack on the Swiss MSC United VII commercial vessel.

Iraqi Resistance claims attack on US base in Syria

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed it targeted an American base in Al-Shaddadi, situated in northeastern Syria, with a barrage of missiles on Tuesday. The purported attack comes after the United States carried out a retaliatory strike in Iraq, claiming that Iranian-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups launched a drone attack on a base in Erbil, Iraq, which injured three US service members. “The President [Joe Biden] places no higher priority than the protection of American personnel serving in harm’s way. The United States will act at a time and in a manner of our choosing should these attacks continue,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson stated. NN: Its obvious the U 1S is one  lucky pot shot away  from war