US President Donald Trump on Wednesday pushed back against reports that a peace agreement with Tehran may be getting close. When asked if a fresh round of negotiations with Pakistan was on the horizon, requiring media presence at the site, the American leader replied, “I don’t think so” to the New York Post. “I think we’ll do it – it’s too far,” he added, continuing with no, it’s too much.”
Meanwhile, Pakistani sources told Al-Arabiya that the two sides are closer to embarking on a negotiation process that “may take months.”
Trump’s comments come after he said yesterday that Project Freedom was paused to allow for the deal to be reached. However, the US president warned earlier today that Washington will continue to “bomb” the Middle Eastern country if Iran does not accept the terms of the already “agreed” terms.
NN: I would say that the market thinking their is a peace deal have gotten carried away.
The US believes it’s close to an agreement with Iran to end the near 10-week war, Axios reported, as China added its voice to global diplomatic pressure to wrap up the conflict. Washington and Tehran are working on a one-page memorandum of understanding that would set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, Axios said Wednesday, citing two US officials and two other sources it didn’t identify. Nothing has been agreed yet, the news agency added, and the US expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.
Iran hasn’t commented on any progress toward a deal.
Oil fell on the report, with Brent dropping 5.6% to below $104 a barrel, a two-week low on a closing basis. Global government bonds extended gains.News of the potential breakthrough came after US President Donald Trump suspended a military initiative to guide stranded ships though the Strait of Hormuz, after a single day of operations resulted in clashes with the Islamic Republic. That forced Washington to insist the a fragile ceasefire remains in place, and Beijing used a rare public comment on the conflict to warn against a return to fighting. “Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the agreement can be finalized and signed,” Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday. “Great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran.” Trump has repeatedly said significant progress has been made in negotiations with Iran to end the war, which began when the US and Israel started bombing the Islamic Republic in February. But disagreements remain over key issues such as the fate of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war brought traffic to a standstill. The US is also demanding an end to Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program, a central part of a set of demands that Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has called unrealistic. Trump’s challenge is to end an increasingly unpopular war while breaking Iran’s control of the strait, an objective he needs to achieve to lower energy costs. US gasoline prices topped $4.50 a gallon on Wednesday for the first time since July 2022, extending a climb that could hurt the Republican Party in the buildup to Midterm elections this November. Suspending Project Freedom also suggests he wants to avoid another flareup in violence like the one seen on the first day of the operation. Before Trump’s announcement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the White House that offensive operations against Iran were over. Project Freedom was meant to sit at the center of the next phase of the US approach to Iran. The US military said it helped two vessels exit Hormuz on Monday, repelling multiple attacks by Iranian drones, missiles and irregular navy fast-attack boats. The shipping industry is waiting for a way to guarantee safe passage through Hormuz without ships risking harassment by Iran or any other party, Dimitris Maniatis, the chief executive officer of Greek maritime risk company Marisks, told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
NN: Do not get caught up in the reality TV show game. Look at oil. Is oil coming through the straits… IF not all this talk is bullshit. Do not get shaken out of this great trade.
The prices of oil futures declined on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling more than 7% and slipping below the $95 mark after reports that Iran and the US were getting close to a one-page memo to end the war. US officials are said to be expecting Iran’s response to several key points in the next 48 hours, which will see both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Also, Tehran will cease nuclear enrichment for over a decade in exchange for the US lifting sanctions and releasing billions in Iranian frozen assets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for settlements in June fell by 7.46% at 5:21 am ET to $94.64 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for July’s deliveries went down by 6.56% to $102.66.
The White House is nearing a one-page Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran to end the conflict and launch nuclear negotiations, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing sources, which added that the parties were at their closest point to reach a deal since the start of the conflict. Under the proposal, Iran would have to accept enhanced UN inspections, stop nuclear enrichment for 12 years, possibly 15 years, maybe transfer highly enriched uranium overseas, and limit subterranean facilities. On the other end, the US would gradually remove sanctions and freeze billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian assets. The outlet said that Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours, though no deal is finalized. Earlier, US President Donald Trump paused escalation plans, citing progress in talks with the Islamic Republic.
NN: Not so fast. A memorandum is NOT a piece deal. And oil retracing it weekly move from $112 to $100 is still a $40 upward move from $60 where all this started. And i don’t see any oil flowing yet. And to make life a little more interesting Iran has not agreed.
The United Arab Emirates said it was under attack from Iranian missiles and drones on Tuesday, even as Washington said a shaky ceasefire was intact despite an exchange of fire the previous day as U.S. forces attempted to force open the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. military said it had destroyed six Iranian small boats, as well as cruise missiles and drones, after President Donald Trump sent the navy to escort stranded tankers through the strait in a campaign he called “Project Freedom”.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation to protect commercial ships was temporary and the four-week-old truce was not over. “We’re not looking for a fight,” he told a press conference. “Right now the ceasefire certainly holds, but we’re going to be watching very, very closely.”
Iran fired missiles at U.S. ships on Monday and attacked the UAE, a key regional ally of Washington, with missiles and drones. After issuing a new map of the Strait of Hormuz with an expanded Iranian area of control, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned vessels on Tuesday to stick to the corridors it had set or face a “decisive response”.
Trump said Iran’s military had been reduced to firing “peashooters” and Tehran wanted peace, despite public sabre-rattling. “They play games, but let me just tell you, they want to make a deal,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.
Shortly after Hegseth spoke on Tuesday, the UAE’s defence ministry said its air defences were again dealing with missile and drone attacks coming from Iran. The Gulf Arab state’s foreign ministry said in a statement that the attacks were a serious escalation and posed a direct threat to the country’s security, adding that the UAE reserved its “full and legitimate right” to respond. Several merchant ships in the Gulf reported explosions or fires on Monday, and an oil port in the UAE, which hosts a large U.S. military base, was set ablaze by Iranian missiles. Iran also said it fired warning shots at a U.S. warship approaching the strait, forcing it to turn back.
Reuters could not independently verify events in the strait as the two sides issued contradictory statements. General Dan Caine, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iranian attacks against U.S. forces fell “below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point”.
United States President Donald Trump warned in an interview with Fox News on Monday that Iranians will “be blown off the face of the earth” if they attack US vessels escorting other ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The US head of state previously announced Project Freedom, an operation aimed at guiding stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that Washington launched the mission to assist more than 200 vessels and 20,000 sailors trapped in the Persian Gulf, and described the operation as humanitarian. He stressed that the US blockade of Iranian ports is “the greatest military maneuver in history.” Trump further claimed that Tehran is now “far more malleable” in ongoing negotiations. The US president also ensured that the US bases are “loaded” with gear and ammunition, adding that the US has more ammunition than before.
A United States Navy frigate was hit by two missiles while it was sailing through the Strait of Hormuz after it ignored the warnings from Iran’s Navy, Iranian semi-official news outlet Fars News Agency reported on Monday. The report claimed that the frigate was forced to retreat and flee from the area after being hit, although the extent of the damage was not clear. The missile strikes follow the warnings from Tehran that any attempt by the United States to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz would be seen as ceasefire violations, after US President Donald Trump previously announced that his country will escort vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy revealed a new map showing the area of the critical Middle Eastern waterway that is under Iranian military control.
Shortly after, a senior US official denied that a US ship was hit by Iranian missiles, according to Axios.
US President Donald Trump vowed to maintain a naval blockade on Iran and was briefed by commanders on further military options, according to a report, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire between the warring countries Trump reiterated that the blockade of Iranian ports is depriving the Islamic Republic of much-needed oil revenue, claiming the pressure would force Tehran back to the negotiating table. “Good luck blockading a country with those borders,” Iran’s speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on X, referring to his country’s large size. He and other Iranian officials say the blockade, which they insist must be lifted for the sides to go to new talks and for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, will further push up oil prices. Trump was briefed at the White House on Thursday by the head of US Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, and Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to Axios, which cited two unnamed US officials. Axios reported earlier that Centcom had prepared a plan for a brief wave of strikes to break the negotiating deadlock. The US is pitching allies on a joint naval force to secure the Strait of Hormuz. New Zealand said it had received the proposal but would only support a US-led coalition if a sustainable ceasefire was in place. The effort, called the “Maritime Freedom Construct,” was spelled out in a State Department cable to US embassies on Tuesday that called on diplomats to press foreign governments into signing up, the Wall Street Journal reported. On Thursday, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, cast doubt on the likelihood of a deal. He gave a rare statement in which he vowed not to give up the country’s nuclear or missile technologies. He also signaled Tehran would keep control of the Hormuz strait.
NN: Technically its no longer a war since their is a cease fire. Its now a naval blockade. Not covered under the war powers act. Forget the politics, Of the last 5 wars the US fought, only one was declared WWII. Is there any doubt that Iran is a evil empire that must be stopped?
A senior United Arab Emirates official said on Friday Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the Iran war remained at an impasse. Two months into the conflict, the vital sea channel is still largely closed because of an Iranian blockade and the U.S. Navy is blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. The blockade has choked off 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns that there will be an economic downturn.
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here. A ceasefire has been in place since April 8 but reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday. Iran has activated air defences and plans a wide response if attacked, having assessed that there will be a short, intensive U.S. strike, possibly followed by an Israeli attack, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Underlining the concerns of the Gulf states, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the “collective international will and provisions of international law” were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait. “And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbors,” Gargash wrote. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose again on Friday, up slightly at over $111 a barrel and poised for a 5.7% gain over the week after hitting $126 a barrel on Thursday, the highest level since March 2022.
IRAN SAYS NOT TO EXPECT QUICK RESULTS FROM TALKS
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned on Thursday against expecting quick results from talks.
A senior official of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said any new U.S. attack on Iran, even if limited, would usher in “long and painful strikes” on U.S. regional positions, while Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted by Iranian media as saying: “We’ve seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships.”
Trump repeated on Thursday that Iran would not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, and said the price of gasoline – an important concern for his Republican Party before midterm elections in November – would “drop like a rock” as soon as the war ended.
Iran says its nuclear programme is solely for civilian purposes.
Trump said on Thursday that Iran’s economy was “a disaster”, but analysts said that if he expects Iran to blink first in a game of economic chicken, he may be waiting a while.
The conflict has aggravated Iran’s dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but it looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite the U.S. blockade that has cut off its energy exports.
Axios news site reported that one plan to be shared with Trump during a briefing by top U.S. military leaders that was scheduled for Thursday involved using ground forces to take over part of the strait to reopen it to commercial shipping. Trump is also considering extending the U.S. blockade or declaring a unilateral victory, officials have said.
Washington did not immediately announce any details of its plans.
In a sign that the U.S. was also envisaging a scenario where hostilities cease, a State Department cable due to be delivered orally to partner nations by May 1 invited them to join a new coalition, called the Maritime Freedom Construct, to enable ships to navigate the strait.
France, Britain and others have held talks on contributing to such a coalition but said they would help to open the Strait only when the conflict ends.
Reporting by Reuters bureaus, Writing by Timothy Heritage, Editing by Gareth Jones
The U.S. is pushing for other countries to form an international coalition to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a State Department cable, as oil prices surged to their highest in more than four years on fears of longer-term disruptions to global fuel supplies.
Two months into the war that started with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the vital sea channel remains closed, choking off 20% of the world’s supplies of oil and gas. That has sent global energy prices surging and heightened concerns about the risks of an economic downturn. Efforts to resolve the conflict have hit an impasse, which the United States is trying to unlock with a naval blockade of Iran’s oil exports, the country’s economic lifeline. With talks stalled, U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on Thursday on plans for a series of fresh military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to negotiations, according to an Axios report late on Wednesday. That spurred big gains in oil prices, with the benchmark Brent crude contract topping $125 a barrel at one point, partly on technical factors related to the expiry of the contract later on Thursday. Since the start of the year, Brent prices have more than doubled, rising on Thursday to their highest since March 2022, fuelling inflation and sending pump prices to politically painful levels worldwide. Tehran warned on Wednesday of “unprecedented military action” against continued U.S. blockading of Iran-linked vessels. Trump has said Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, while Tehran says its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. “They don’t know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They’d better get smart soon!” Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday, without explaining what such a deal would entail.
The post featured a mock-up image of him wearing dark glasses and wielding a machine-gun, captioned, “No more Mr. Nice Guy.” With Washington and Tehran trading public threats, mediator Pakistan was trying to avoid escalation while the two sides exchange messages on a potential deal, a Pakistani source said on Wednesday. The State Department cable said the United States was inviting other countries to join a new international coalition that would enable ships to navigate the Strait of Hormuz after traffic through the waterway stalled. The proposed coalition, dubbed the “Maritime Freedom Construct”, would share information, coordinate diplomatically and help enforce sanctions, the cable showed. Tehran has largely blocked all shipping apart from its own from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, since the U.S. and Israel began airstrikes on Iran on February 28. The U.S. began its blockade this month. Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power since the strikes killed several senior political and military figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The elevation of Khamenei’s wounded son, Mojtaba, to replace him has handed more power to hardline commanders of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iranian officials and analysts say.
NN: It is sick joke as reserves are falling the global “leadership” refuses to force open the straights to free navigation. To allow Iran to hold the world the world hostage clearly show the Europeans have no balls. They will pay a heavy price for this staidness