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Oil Market Saw Trading Spike Before Trump’s Iran Pivot Post

  • Contracts representing millions of barrels of oil changed hands about 15 minutes before a social media post from US President Donald Trump that sent crude prices tumbling.
  • Futures corresponding to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate were sold in the two minutes from 6:49 a.m. in Washington on Monday.
  • The notional value of those volumes was around $650 million before the Trump post sent prices plunging.

Contracts representing millions of barrels of oil changed hands about 15 minutes before a social media post from US President Donald Trump that sent crude prices tumbling by as much as 14%. Futures corresponding to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate were sold in the two minutes from 6:49 a.m. in Washington on Monday, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. The average for the same time period over the previous five trading days was about 700 lots — or 700,000 barrels. Trump’s Truth Social post was published at around 7:05 a.m.

Millions of Oil Barrels Trade Before Trump Post

Derivatives changed hands before Trump delays Iran strikes

Source: ICE

Trump said in the post that the US would postpone strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, adding that it was in “productive conversations” with the Middle Eastern nation. The president had on Saturday threatened to carry out the attacks within 48 hours unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that typically handles around a fifth of the world’s oil. “Yesterday, we were counting down the hours until Trump started ‘obliterating’ Iranian power plants; today we are counting down the days before a ‘deal’ with Iran,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp. “The problem for traders is that we have a whole lot of risk and volatility to manage between those two extremes.” The notional value of those volumes was around $650 million before the Trump post sent prices plunging. It’s not known if the contracts were part of a wider strategy involving other derivative instruments like timespreads or options. The identities of the counterparties were also not immediately clear. “The last thing that market participants want to see are suggestions that large, and highly profitable trades were being placed just ahead of those extreme swings,” Rennie said. Crude futures have been highly volatile, as the market reacts to ever-shifting headlines on the status of the war in the Middle East, which has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. There was also a similar increase in activity in US stock futures on the S&P 500 prior to the Trump post. Between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. in New York on Monday, 4,497 contracts changed hands, a sharp spike against an otherwise quiet premarket session, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That burst of trading, combined with a move higher in prices, represented about $1.46 billion in notional value, making it the largest trade of the morning.

NN: Yesterday was a false flag. Trump is going for Krag island to cut off Iran’s oil revenue. And the shore line around the straights so the tankers can get through. And the Marines are on the way.
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Thousands of Marines enter CENTCOM on Iran deadline

Thousands of US Marines are due to enter the US Central Command on Friday, the same day as President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing two US officials. The report said the Japan-based USS Tripoli, the USS New Orleans, and roughly 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit are scheduled to cross into CENTCOM on Friday. It would then take several more days for the force to reach the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon has also ordered the California-based 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, aboard the USS Boxer amphibious ready group, to head to CENTCOM, though that deployment will take longer. The report comes just hours after a New York Times article, which states that the Pentagon is contemplating deploying the 82nd Airborne Division and parts of its headquarters to assist in its campaign against Iran.

NN: Announcing the Trump golf course and condo project on Kharg Island
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Israeli strikes hit Tehran despite Trump’s remarks

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Monday that the country’s Air Force had launched a fresh round of strikes in Tehran, shortly after US President Donald Trump unveiled that his administration had been engaged in productive talks with Iran about a “complete and total resolution” of hostilities. “IDF: Initial report- The IDF is currently conducting strikes on Iranian terror regime targets in the heart of Tehran,” the IDF posted on Telegram. In a previous post on Truth Social, Trump said that he ordered the military to postpone any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

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Trump pauses strikes on Iranian sites for five days

Donald Trump says he has instructed the US military to postpone “all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure” following two days of “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. Writing on Truth Social, the US president said the pause would last for five days and was subject to “the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions”

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IEA chief says 40 energy assets damaged in Middle East

International Energy ​Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said at least 40 energy assets have been “severely or very severely” damaged across nine countries in the Middle East due to the war in the region. Birol also told the National Press Club in Canberra that he is currently consulting with Asian and European governments on potential further releases of stockpiled oil. “If it’s necessary, of course, we will do it, but we will look at the conditions, we will analyze the markets ​and discuss with our member countries,” he said, adding that there’s “no specific price level” for further intervention.

The IEA chief described the energy crisis as “very severe” and harsher than the impact of the two oil shocks of the 1970s and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine combined. “This crisis, as things stand now, is two oil crises and one gas crisis put all together,” he stressed on Monday.

NN: I want to be crystal clear here oil is going to $150 MINIUM. And we got a good shot at $200. Any relief is 6 months in the future. ROCK ON!
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Gold plummets 8%, silver tumbles 9% on Iran concerns

The prices of precious metals continued to decline on Monday, with gold and silver plunging sharply amid rising inflation fears, elevated oil prices, and strengthening expectations of global rate hikes as the US-Israel conflict with Iran showed no signs of easing. Market participants will keep a close watch on key economic indicators for direction, including manufacturing and services PMI data from the US, as well as consumer sentiment figures and jobless claims. Gold lost 8.03% at 3:06 am ET, going for $4,137.87 per ounce, while silver fell by 9.16% and went for $61.89 per ounce. Platinum plunged 3.69% at 3:09 am ET to go for $1,879.17 per ounce, and palladium dropped 2.09% and sold for $1,384.26 per ounce.

NN: The born again precious metals bulls are getting fucked again. They are at a loss for the year. The only thing that was driving the metals was sanctions forced the oil bad guys Iran, Russia  and  Venezuela are now Venezuela free of sanctions in this oil crises. Using dollars instead of gold.
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IRGC vows to ‘completely’ shut Hormuz over US strike risk

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully shut if US threats to strike Iran’s power plants are carried out. A spokesperson said any attack would trigger immediate “punitive measures.” “The Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and this strait will not be opened until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt,” they said. The statement outlined potential responses, including targeting Israeli energy and communication infrastructure, and striking regional companies with US ties. It also warned that power plants in countries hosting US bases could become “legitimate targets.” The IRGC said the strait remains under its control and open under specific conditions, but stressed it is prepared to escalate, vowing to defend national interests and disrupt US economic assets across West Asia and the Middle East.

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Trump threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants…….. Iran to hit US energy sites, plants if its own attacked

United States President Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants in case Tehran did not open the Strait of Hormuz “within 48 hours from this exact point in time.” Trump demanded that the strait be “fully open, without threat,” or Washington would start by destroying Iran’s “biggest” power plant “first.”  His threat appeared to directly contradict his previous post on Truth Social in which he said the US “has blown Iran off of the map.” Tehran previously said it would retaliate if its energy infrastructure came under attack.

NN: This is an example of a bombastic blowoff. Blasting the grid  only hurts the little people. The military and ruling elite all have generators. Trump needs to concentrate is the  Straights and Kharg island.  This at some point starts to restore oil and distillates to the market and cuts Iran’s cashflow. Time scale 6 to 12 months. Between now and them a lot of damage to oil  infrastructure. And $150 to $200  oil.
Iran to hit US energy sites, plants if its own attacked

The Iranian army spokesperson warned that Iran would retaliate against all US and Israeli energy infrastructure across the Middle East, including information technology systems and desalination plants, shortly after US President Donald Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iranian power plants. Trump gave Tehran an ultimatum to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or the US would target Iran’s largest power plant first. The latest turn of events seems to point to a sharp escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. It comes shortly after Iran launched missile attacks on Israel’s infrastructure, including a strike in the vicinity of the Dimona nuclear research center.

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US, Israel strike Iran’s Natanz nuclear site

The Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) in central Iran was struck in an air attack carried out by the United States and Israel on Saturday morning, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency and the official Mizan agency. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) later said no radioactive material leaked and nearby residents were not in danger. The attack followed Iran’s overnight missile launch aimed at a joint US-United Kingdom base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Natanz is Iran’s primary uranium enrichment site and has already been the target of an attack early in March.