US GDP contracts 0.6% in Q2….. PCE price index climbed a whopping  7.1%

The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States shrank by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis published on Thursday. The latest figure has been revised in comparison to the first estimate, which put the second trimester GDP decrease at 0.9%. The US economy contracted by 1.6% in the first three months of 2022. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose by 8.4% in the second quarter, 0.2 percentage points up compared to the previous projection.

PCE price index climbed a whopping  7.1%

The closely watched and FED’s favorite inflation guage the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index climbed a whopping  7.1%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index was up 4.4%.

Bostic: 75 bp rate hike if inflation doesn’t ease

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic that the central bank could opt for a third consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase in the federal funds rate if labor data stays strong and the inflation rate does not ease before the next policy meeting in September. However, Bostic also said in a Wall Street Journal interview published on Thursday that the has not firmly decided whether he would support a 50 basis point or a 75 basis point rate hike. He also echoed the stance of some of his colleagues that, once rates reach an “appropriate level,” they should “stay there” so the Fed could “purposefully analyze and assess how our policies are flowing through the economy.” The Atlanta Fed leader dismissed quick rate cuts after the rate-hiking process, describing them as counterproductive as they could result in even more uncertainty. Bostic urged the central bank to firmly focus on the inflation issue and “resist the temptation to be too reactionary” even if the economy slows down somewhat, as “some [economic] weakening is to be expected” while the Fed fights to get inflation on a path to the targeted 2%.

Additional quotes:

Inflation is a big problem.

Some weakening in the economy is to be expected.

Fed needs to really make sure inflation is well on its way to 2% before taking steps to increase its accommodative policy stance.

I see growth around 2% this year before moderating to 0.5% to 1% gain next year.

Euro gains momentum against dollar, trades above $1…… ECB and BoE eyeing for half point moves

The euro regained momentum against the US dollar on Thursday as it strengthened above parity, reaching an intraday high of $1.000345. From today, Fed officials and banking figures from around the world will meet for the annual Jackson Hole symposium until August 27. The dollar’s retreat from a nearly two-decade high comes just as investors await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech for clues on the path of monetary policy. After reaching its highest level, the euro climbed 0.61% against the dollar at 8:47 am CET, selling for $1.00282. On the other side, the dollar index, which monitors the currency against a six-currency basket, decreased by 0.54% to stand at 108.0648.

ECB and BoE eyeing for half point moves

European economies are suffering as the energy crisis looks increasingly serious and central banks are being forced to withdraw stimulus to try to prevent excess inflation from taking root. Confidence readings go south, prices keep rising and the ECB and BoE remain on track for half-point moves at their next meetings. With markets increasingly concerned that aggressive central bank action will send the global economy into recession, the prospect of further rate hikes has done the Euro no favours. EURUSD fell under equality, at the bottom of 0.9915. Fed Chairman Powell’The comments from the Jackson Hole meeting are the key event for currency markets now and EURUSD this side of his speech will probably remain depressed. Uncertainty about Russia’s gas supply to Europe, along with a major slowdown or even recession in Europe, which would ease inflationary pressures, will keep prices supported.

The S&P Global Composite PMI for the Eurozone fell to 49.2 in the preliminary reading for August. The index provides further evidence that the economy is slipping into recession, although the number was not as bad as feared, largely thanks to an unexpected improvement in German manufacturing. Enthusiasm among service providers after the reopening of the economy quickly gave way to concern about mounting cost pressures and struggles to find staff following pandemic-related layoffs. The manufacturing sector meanwhile reported falling demand on the back of markedly higher prices, although the survey suggested that confidence in the year-ago outlook was not as cautious as in July. However, clearly, with energy shortages looming and the ECB raising rates again, the numbers connect with expectations of contracting activity during the winter. Elsewhere, the UK manufacturing PMI plunged to 46.0, which dragged the Composite down to 50.9 in August from 52.1 in the previous month. The UK composite remains above the 50-point unchanged mark despite the fact that GDP actually contracted in the second quarter. It seems that the survey is finally catching up with the reality of an economy that is already in recession. In short, with markets increasingly worried that aggressive central bank action will send the global economy into recession, the prospect of more rates has not made the Euro or the Sterling any favors Both the ECB and BoE, like other central banks, are in a difficult position as they face slow growth and rising prices. However, with inflation hitting double digits, the risk of second round effects and significant wage growth is even higher in the UK than in the Eurozone. NN: The UK and EU have lagged way behind the US in raising rates. Their currencies have depreciated 30%. We got caught in that slide since we are a UK based entity and our trading currency is the EURO. We as the drop happened spread our Euro trade. As the Euro dropped below a dollar we legged out of the Euro shorts we were holding at .099347.  So afar that looks like a good move since the EURO is trading at 1.00159. We are not out of the woods yet. My bet if we do not have any blow up the pound and euro have put in their lows against the dollars. I look for the central bankers love fest in shit hole (Jackson Hole) will be the perfect time for the UK and EU to confirm their upcoming tightening. They will raise rates and catch up to the dollar. And this plunge will soon be history. And if we guess right very very profitiable.

Biden forgives millions of student loans; critics fear inflation

https://youtu.be/5hiQyK_4eGc

WASHINGTON, Aug 24 (Reuters) – President Joe Biden said on Wednesday the U.S. government will forgive $10,000 in student loans for millions of debt-saddled former college students, keeping a pledge he made in the 2020 campaign for the White House. The move could boost support for his fellow Democrats in the November congressional elections, but some economists said it may fuel inflation and some Republicans in the U.S. Congress questioned whether the president had the legal authority to cancel the debt.

Debt forgiveness will free up hundreds of billions of dollars for new consumer spending that could be aimed at homebuying and other big-ticket expenses, according to economists who said this would add a new wrinkle to the country’s inflation fight.

The actions are “for families that need them the most – working and middle class people hit especially hard during the pandemic,” Biden said during remarks at the White House. He pledged no high-income households would benefit, addressing a central criticism of the plan. “I will never apologize for helping working Americans and middle class, especially not to the same folks who voted for a $2 trillion tax cut that mainly benefited the wealthiest Americans and the biggest corporations,” Biden said, referring to a Republican tax cut passed under former President Donald Trump. Borrower balances have been frozen since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, with no payments required on most federal student loans since March 2020. Many Democrats had pushed for Biden to forgive as much as $50,000 per borrower. Republicans mostly opposed student loan forgiveness, calling it unfair because it will disproportionately help people earning higher incomes. “President Biden’s student loan socialism is a slap in the face to every family who sacrificed to save for college, every graduate who paid their debt, and every American who chose a certain career path or volunteered to serve in our Armed Forces in order to avoid taking on debt,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday. The administration has yet to determine the price tag for the package, which will depend on how many people apply for it, White House domestic policy adviser Susan Rice told reporters. Student loans obtained after June 30 this year are not eligible, she said. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters the administration has legal authority to forgive the debt under a law allowing such action during a national emergency such as a pandemic. Earlier, Republican U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik had called the plan “reckless and illegal.” NB: their is no national emergence on student loans. This is an abuse of power. Reminds me of the dictators i have lived under who ruled by decree. American university tuition fees are substantially higher than in most other rich countries, and U.S. consumers carry $1.75 trillion in student loan debt, most of it held by the federal government. Biden said other countries could bypass the United States economically if students are not offered economic relief. The administration will extend a COVID-19 pandemic-linked pause on student loan repayment to year end, while forgiving $10,000 in student debt for single borrowers with annual income under $125,000 a year or married couples who earn less than $250,000, the White House said. Some 8 million borrowers will be affected automatically, the Department of Education said; others need to apply for forgiveness. The government is also forgiving up to $20,000 in debt for some 6 million students from low-income familieswho received federal Pell Grants, and proposing a new rule that protects some income from repayment plans and forgives some loan balances after 10 years of repayment, the Education Department said. A New York Federal Reserve study shows that cutting $10,000 in federal debt for every student would amount to $321 billion and eliminate the entire balance for 11.8 million borrowers, or 31% of them. After Dec. 31, the government will resume requiring payment on remaining student loans that were paused during the pandemic. The official said this would offset any inflationary effects of the forgiveness. Payment resumptions could even have a dampening effect on prices, the official said.

Former U.S. Treasury secretary Larry Summers disagreed. He said on Twitter that debt relief “consumes resources that could be better used helping those who did not, for whatever reason, have the chance to attend college. It will also tend to be inflationary by raising tuitions.”

Similarly Jason Furman, a Harvard professor who headed the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration, said debt-cancellation would nullify the deflationary powers of the Inflation Reduction Act. “Pouring roughly half trillion dollars of gasoline on the inflationary fire that is already burning is reckless,” he said.

NN: if you “forgive” the debt who pays it. This is another multi billion dollar liberal lefty gift to them selves out of the treasury… Its inflationary as hell as is the build back better bill renamed  ( ha ha ha ha) Inflation Reduction Act…. The Fed is trying to rein in spending that is how you stop inflation… The more governemnt stimulus by any name they choose is that much higher for longer interest rates must go!

Oil up after US reportedly rejects Iran’s demands

Reuters) – Oil prices ended Wednesday higher after a volatile trading session on concerns that the United States will not consider additional concessions to Iran in its response to a draft agreement that would restore Tehran’s nuclear deal – and potentially the OPEC member’s crude exports. Iran said it had received a response from the United States to the EU’s “final” text for revival of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with major powers. Brent crude settled up $1.00 to $101.22 while U.S. crude settled up $1.15 to $94.89 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell by more than $1 earlier in the session. Oil was also supported after Saudi Arabia suggested this week that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could consider cutting output, though bearish economic signals from central bankers and falling equities weighed. Both crude oil benchmark contracts touched three-week highs earlier on Wednesday after the Saudi energy minister flagged the possibility of cutting production. OPEC sources later told Reuters that any cuts by the producer group and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, are likely to coincide with a return of Iranian oil to the market should Tehran secure a nuclear deal with world powers. A U.S. official on Monday said that Iran had dropped some of its main demands in negotiations to resurrect a deal to rein in Tehran’s nuclear programme. OPEC+ is already producing 2.9 million barrels per day less than its target, sources said, complicating any decision on cuts or how to calculate the baseline for an output reduction. “The oil price and supply outlook suggest that an OPEC+ cut is not currently warranted,” PVM analyst Stephen Brennock said. “Global oil supply could take a hit as peak U.S. hurricane season approaches. Elsewhere, future supply outages in Libya cannot be discounted while Nigeria’s oil fortunes show little sign of improving.” Earlier in the session oil prices fell after U.S. government data showed lackluster demand for gasoline, which augurs for a notable slowdown in economic activity. Gasoline demand data showed the four-week average of daily gasoline product supplied 7% below the year-earlier period.

NN:

The United States rejected all additional conditions requested by Iran in its latest response to the European Union’s nuclear deal draft, Al-Arabiya reported on Wednesday. According to the report, Washington said that Iran’s uranium enrichment must not exceed 4%, adding that the US wants to see Tehran lift all restrictions on international inspectors.

Fed can relax on rate hikes when CPI nears 2% – Kashkari

The U.S. dollar trimmed recent losses against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, after Minneapolis Federal Reserve Head Neel Kashkari said the central bank would keep tightening policy until it saw clear signs of easing inflation. Kashkari, who has become one of the Fed’s most hawkish members in recent months, said the bank’s biggest priority at the moment was curtailing inflation, and that it would ease on tightening only if it saw “compelling evidence” that inflation was nearing its 2% target. The dollar index arrested recent losses after his comments, and rose 0.1% to 108.69. The greenback had slipped 0.4% on Tuesday after dismal service sector data. Dollar index futures rose nearly 0.2%. Growing expectations of a hawkish Fed saw the greenback come close to a two-decade high this week. Speaking at the Wharton Minnesota Alumni Club, Kashkari expressed concerns over the possibility that the Fed has misread inflation dynamics, which could spur far more policy tightening than seen so far this year.

“My biggest source of concern is that if we and financial markets are currently misreading the current inflation dynamics, then it’s going to take us a while to figure that out, and we’re going to have to be even more hawkish than I’m envisioning now,” Kashkari said.

He expects the central bank to hike rates by at least 200 basis points (bps) by the end of next year. The Fed’s target rate is currently at 2.25% to 2.50%, with a majority of traders expecting a 75 bps hike in September. Kashkari’s comments come as several other officials also echoed the sentiment that inflation is still far from under control, and that several more sharp interest rate hikes are warranted to bring it under control. U.S. CPI inflation stood at an annual rate of 8.5% in July. While the reading did ease slightly from the prior month, it is still around its highest levels in 40 years. NN: Well we all know where i stand here. The FED after 20 years of too lose monetary policy has really fucked things up royally. They are in a hell of their own creating. They have no choice but to continue to raise rates pretty dramatically,,,, This group of traders has never seen inflation never mind a fed tightening……

Goldman Sees $5 Gasoline, $130 Brent By Year End

The price of retail gasoline just dipped below $4 per gallon, AAA data showed on Thursday, but prices could rise to $5 per gallon by the end of the year, Goldman Sach’s Head of Energy Research Damien Courvalin said. “We think that’s the level at which we need to see sustained pricing to eventually solve the market deficit,”  As for crude oil prices, Courvalin sees Brent climbing to $130 by the end of the year. “So we think Brent goes to $130 per barrel at the end of this year to reflect this need for sustained high prices.” “We’re still in deficit. Despite growth slowing, prices still have work to do, and that’s higher from here.” Goldman’s forecast assumes China’s demand for jet fuel and diesel only grows moderately from here until the end of 2023, pressured by its zero-Covid policy. That scenario could shift, Courvalin points out. “If we’re talking half a million barrels per day of Chinese demand going back to its prior highs, just on our pricing model, that’s $15 upside per barrel to Brent prices.” In the shorter term, Courvalin sees gasoline and diesel prices going up as refiners head into turnaround season due to the lack of a typical inventory buffer that is currently not present in the market. As of the latest EIA data, total motor gasoline inventories in the United States were 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, while distillate fuels were 24% below the five-year average. Brent crude was on the upswing on Thursday, trading $2.38 (2.44%) higher on the day at $99.78, pressing to reclaim its position above $100 per barrel—a position the international crude oil benchmark has held for most of the summer. NN: I could not agree more..

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Nearly Depleted……. U.S. crude in SPR hits lowest level since January 1985

The United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) now has only 453.1 million barrels in its inventory, following another significant drop in the past week that puts the emergency reserve at a low not seen in three and a half decades, Reuters reports, citing the Department of Energy.  In the week ending August 19th, the SPR saw another draw of 8.1 million barrels, following smaller releases in the weeks leading up to that.  In March, the Biden administration authorized the release of 1 million bpd from the SPR over a period of six months in a bid to lower oil prices and to potentially boost domestic production through contracts with companies to purchase future oil at fixed prices. The SPR releases are a response to the disruption of global oil markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions that have led to soaring oil and gas prices.  The final plan called for a total release of 180 million barrels of crude from the SPR to counter the inexorable increase in oil prices amid a tight market. In addition to the lowest inventory levels in the SPR since 1985, last Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that crude oil inventories (excluding the SPR) had fallen by 7.1 million barrels.  For that week, U.S. crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, were at only 425 million barrels, or 6% below the five year average.  The largest sale from the SPR was announced on August 11, when the Department of Energy said that nine companies would buy 20 million barrels. According to the Institute of Energy Research, the SPR is expected to shrink to a 40-year low by the end of October, with inventories then at 358 million barrels, compared to 621 million barrels a year ago. NN: In March when your ha ha ha ha president ordered the release of oil from the emergency reserve US oil was trading at $85 a barrel. During the release oil surged to $120 a barrel and is currently trading at $100 a barrel. I would say its been a colossal fuck up. Please note most of the oil was bought by US certified bidders at below the spot price and sold to Europe…. Most of the oil did not make it into the US oil system. And since the release US oil inventories have FALLEN! ALL I CAN SAY IS WELL DONE ASSHOLES!

U.S. crude in SPR hits lowest level since January 1985

 

HOUSTON, Aug 22 (Reuters) – U.S. crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 8.1 million barrels in the latest week to the lowest level in more than 35 years, according to data from the Department of Energy. Stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 453.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19, according to the data. The 8.1 million-barrel draw was the largest since the end of April and brought inventory to the lowest level since January 1985. The large draw comes after a few weeks of smaller releases. An Energy Department spokesperson said the use of an additive to cool crude for transportation had slowed deliveries in recent weeks, adding that deliveries for August are being released according to schedule. President Joe Biden in March set a plan to release 1 million barrels per day over six months from the SPR to tackle high fuel prices, which have been contributing to soaring inflation. The SPR stocks have also declined due to sales from congressional mandates and Biden’s price initiative. The oil is sold to accredited oil companies via online auctions, and prices are set using a five-day average bracketing the date of delivery. The Energy Department has proposed to replenish the SPR by allowing it to enter contracts to purchase oil in future years at fixed, preset prices. The administration said it believes the plan would help boost domestic oil production.

US new home sales down by 12.6% in July

New home sales in the United States decreased by 12.6% in July compared to the previous month. The sales dropped by 29.6% compared to July 2021, according to the report published by the United States Census Bureau on Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, the biggest decrease was in the Midwest with a drop of 20.6%, whereas in the South the sales reduced by 12.1%. Sales of new single-family houses were at $511,00 at a seasonally adjusted rate. The median price of new houses in July stood at $439,000, while the average sales price was $546,800 for the sold houses. The seasonally-adjusted estimate for new houses at the end of the month was $464,000. NN: Look out below… Home prices do not me squat to this crop of happy home owners…. They are monthly payment buyers which is doubling and tripling….. Tens are in department C.