Even if Russia were to start Nord Stream 2 tomorrow, the gas flows through it would be unable to alleviate much of the natural gas shortages in Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday, adding that he had warned German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about this. Germany actually never certified the twin link of the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany. Russia completed the Nord Stream 2 project last year, but Germany halted the certification of the project late in 2021. After Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February 2022, Germany suspended indefinitely the project that was designed to double Russian gas flows to Germany. “We now have to reassess the dramatically changed situation: This also applies toNord Stream 2,” Chancellor Scholz said at the time, adding that “The certification cannot take place now.” Speaking to reporters while on a visit to Iran today, Putin said, referring to Scholz and Nord Stream 2, “I had to warn him that we would take half of the volumes intended for Nord Stream 2 for internal consumption and processing then. I talked about that issue at Gazprom’s request, and Gazprom has already done that.””Therefore, even if we launch Nord Stream 2 tomorrow, it won’t be 55 million cubic meters a year, but exactly half of that. In addition, bearing in mind that only the second half is left of this year, it means only one-fourth. That’s the situation with the supplies,” Putin was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Interfax. Also on Wednesday, Putin warned Europe that Gazprom could cut natural gas flows to Europe via the existing Nord Stream route due to slow progress with the maintenance of the gas turbines at compressor stations. Nord Stream is undergoing regular maintenance between July 11 and 21, and no gas currently flows from the key gas link between Russia and Germany. The European Union is bracing for the possibility that Russia will not resume natural gas deliveries to Europe via Nord Stream as planned. NN: Europe is a lemon to squeeze. No WAY Putin cuts off the gas supply to Europe. Does a drug dealer stop selling drugs to an addict. Putin is to smart to make that mistake. Reality as as i have warned for years Europe is Putin’s bitch. He worked to long, invested to much money to make that mistake
WH: Russia planning to annex Ukraine
White House says Russia is planning to annex MORE of Ukraine by installing more proxy officials, making the ruble currency and forcing residents to apply for citizenship
The White House warned on Tuesday that Russia is preparing to annex more Ukrainian territory as the war enters its sixth month. ‘Russia is laying the groundwork to annex Ukrainian territory that it controls in direct violation of Ukraine sovereignty,’ National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at the daily White House press briefing. He said Russia is trying to install proxy officials in areas of Ukraine it already controls. ‘We know their next moves. First, these proxy officials will arrange sham referendum and joining Russia then, Russia will use those sham referenda as a basis to try to claim annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory,’ he said. He went on to say the Russian officials will force Ukrainians to apply for Russian citizenships and passports, to use the ruble as its currency, and to sabotage civilian internet access. ‘We will never recognize any purportedly annex territories belonging to Russia,’ Kirby said. Kirby also said the White House is expected to announce more military aid for Ukraine later this week. The aid is expected to include more High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, a critical weapon Ukrainian forces have been using with success in their fight to repel Russian troops. The words of warning came the same day Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska visited the White House. President Joe Biden joined first lady Jill Biden in greeting her. The president carried a bouquet of yellow, sunflowers, blue hydrangeas, and white orchids that he gave to Zelenska. Blue and yellow are the national colors of the Ukraine. Jill Biden gave her Ukrainian counterpart a hug. Zelenska is on a tour of Washington D.C., to bring attention to Ukrainian humantarian issues and was not accompanied by her husband, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. She met with Secretary of State Tony Blinken on Monday and will address members of Congress on Wednesday. Zelenska was escorted by Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova. The four posed for a photo before going inside. Biden put his arm around Zelenska to escort her inside the White House. Zelenksa is making a private visit to Washington D.C. to highlight the human cost of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missiles struck cities and villages in eastern and southern Ukraine, hitting homes, a school and a community center on Tuesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin won strong support support from Iran for his country’s military operation. On the political front, Putin visited Tehran, where Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the West opposes an ‘independent and strong’ Russia. Khamenei said that if Russia hadn´t sent troops into Ukraine, it would have faced an attack from NATO later, echoing Putin´s own rhetoric and reflecting increasingly close ties between Moscow and Tehran as they both face severe Western sanctions. NATO allies have bolstered their military presence in Eastern Europe and provided Ukraine with weapons to help counter the Russian attack. Putin and other officials at the Tehran meetings said little new about negotiations to unblock Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.NN: Reality is Russia is winning. It is madness to suggest Ukraine has any chance of surviving without NATO troops on the ground. As we have continuously commented for the past 8 years Putin will slice and dice the Ukraine and eat her. As long as the world embraces assign energy policies that make Russia energy critical to the wolrd economy Putin get the win.
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Russia, Ukraine close to deal on grain exports
Russia and Ukraine should be close to reaching a deal to finish the blockade of grain exports through the Black Sea, Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the UN-led negotiations. Despite the advances, the parties disagree on how to ensure the security of ports and ships along the export route, said the sources. However, Moscow and Kiev agreed to supervise vessels en route to and from ports, including Odessa, at two monitoring sites – one in Istanbul and one in the Black Sea – where ships will be checked. In that sense, yesterday, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that a deal on grain export from Ukraine had been reached in principle. NN; Do not be so sure any bread will be backed from Ukraine wheat. Many many obstructions stand in the way… The biggest being the fact the grain export ports have been mined by the Ukrainians and they did it in such a haphazard manner no one knows where the ship mines are located…… Under the best of circumstances it will take months to open the ports. AND as you remove the mines the door is wide open for a Russian invasion be sea.
Scaramucci Halts Withdrawals in a Fund After Stock, Crypto Swoon
Sacaramucci Predicts in the video below Bitcoin will hit $500,000 instead it wiped out his fund
Anthony Scaramucci’s Skybridge Capital suspended redemptions in one of its funds after sharp declines in stocks and cryptocurrencies, according to people familiar with the decision. The Legion Strategies fund suspended redemptions because private companies, which are harder to sell, now make up about 20% of the portfolio, one of the people said. The fund is one of Skybridge’s smaller offerings, farming out most of its roughly $230 million of assets to hedge fund managers. FTX, the crypto exchange co-founded by billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, is among the fund’s private investments. Scaramucci — who returned to money management after spending 11 days in the White House as the Trump administration’s communications director — made a big push into crypto, a move that has hurt Skybridge’s performance this year. An index of the 100 largest digital assets has tumbled 56% in 2022. The Legion Strategies fund gained exposure to digital assets through other funds managed by Skybridge, including vehicles focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Algorand, according to a regulatory filing. As of Feb. 28, almost a quarter of Legion’s net assets were invested in such fund. Skybridge runs a larger fund-of-funds, the Multi-Adviser Hedge Fund Portfolios, which managed about $2 billion as of March 31, according to a separate filing. That fund fell about 5.5% for the year through March 31. Redemptions for that fund are made through a tender offer by Skybridge. The firm told clients it will buy back 10% of the fund’s shares at the end of September, the next time investors are allowed to pull money, one of the people said. A representative for New York-based Skybridge didn’t reply to messages seeking comment.
IMF to Cut Global Growth Outlook ‘Substantially’ at Next Review
The International Monetary Fund will cut its global economic growth outlook “substantially” in its next update, as finance chiefs grapple with a shrinking list of options to address the worsening risks. Surging food and energy prices, slowing capital flows to emerging markets, the ongoing pandemic and a slowdown in China make it “much more challenging” for policymakers, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the IMF’s director for strategy, policy and review, said at a Sunday panel in Bali, Indonesia. “It’s shock after shock after shock which are really hitting the global economy.” She spoke after the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors ended their meeting on Saturday without reaching a communique, underlining the difficulty in coordinating a global response to surging inflation and recessionary fears.
IMF to cut its global economic growth outlook ‘substantially’
Source: Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
The IMF already downgraded its outlook for the global expansion this year to 3.6%, from 4.4% before the war in Ukraine, in its April report. In a review due this month, “we will downgrade our forecast substantially,” Pazarbasioglu said. Central bankers around the world are finding it tough to find the right response to price increases that are driven by supply issues. “The path to a soft landing is narrowing; we think it is still a feasible path but certainly not a very easy one,” said Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the Bank for International Settlements, at the same panel. “Where central banks take monetary policy in a rapid and decisive manner and have a front-loaded response to inflation, that is more conducive to a soft landing.” NN: No matter how much wall street spins that the recession will not be that bad. The soft landing myth. It ain’t gonna happen. That does not mean we wont have the usual good time Charlie bear market rallies. And a lot of them. The Fed has just started Slowing liquidity to the market. Reality is they will have to remove said liquidity. Yes inflation has peeked at close to 9%. But reality is interest rates are still a negative 5%. And to say inflation is under control they will have to get it to under 3%. And they only way for that to happen is a full blown depression.
Oil Markets Torn Between Recession Fears And Physical Tightness
Uncertainty is dominating the oil market this week, with recession fears being countered by physical tightness and growing supply risks. This week’s seesawing was in large part driven by the market expecting a 100 basis point hike, sending all global crude benchmarks crashing down to double digits, however as soon as the US Federal Reserve opted for a more modest 75 bps hike, ICE Brent bounced back to $102 per barrel. Following the recent hedge fund sell-off, it seems that there is still no consensus on the main driving trend in the markets – fears of economic recession are just as strong as the feeling of immediate physical tightness. After President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia senior US officials have confirmed that Washington is not expecting Riyadh to boost crude production immediately, lifting crude prices by $2/barrel in Friday’s trading. NN: Speaking of getting a bead on oil prices. I see jawboning pushing oil lower for now. Once oil gets into the eighties i am a buyer. I see this winter playing hell on world energy markets. With the crack spread at $50 pump price for gasoline are at $150 barrel oil equivalent. This will moderate for now. Realty is their is no spare oil anywhere in the world. And the idiots from the clown car that are global leaders are still clowning around. Coming sanctions on Russian oil will drive prices this time to $200 oil. Recession no recession people still have got to drive to work and heat their homes.
Asian LNG Prices Feel the European Heat. Spot Asian LNG prices have been trending above $40 per mmBtu lately, with increasing cooling demand and outages in several key suppliers (Peru, Australia) adding a layer of upward pricing pressure, whilst gas-strapped Europe continues to see prices well above those in Asia.
Algeria Becomes Largest Gas Supplier to Italy. In an ongoing diplomatic row with Morocco and Spain, Algeria has been rerouting its gas exports to Italy and is now set to supply the southern European country with 25 bcm of natural gas, with increased throughput rates starting next week already.
Iraqi Export Capacity Upgrades Get Delayed. Whilst Baghdad has been maintaining that it would expand crude export capacity by 150,000 b/d (to 3.4 million b/d in total) thanks to new infrastructure in Basrah, that goal is now postponed into Sept-Oct amidst pumping station upgrade setbacks.
China’s Power Supply Strained Under Record Heat. Peak power loads in several Chinese regions (Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Jiangsu etc.) have hit all-time highs this week, with temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius, leading to 5-6% year-on-year increases in average electricity consumption rates.
ConocoPhillips Doubles Down on Port Arthur LNG. US oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) agreed to buy a 30% stake in Sempra Energy’s 13.5mtpa Port Arthur LNG project, agreeing to purchase 5 mtpa of LNG produced by the first phase of the project and supply the natural gas for its share of output.
Tripoli Government Pulls Off Hostile Takeover. The UN-backed Government of National Unity has sacked the longtime chairman of Libya’s NOC Mustafa Sanalla and replaced him with former central bank governor Farhat Bengdara, storming the oil company’s headquarters to install the new head.
China Might Scrap Australia Coal Ban. According to a Bloomberg report, Chinese officials are proposing to end a ban on Australian coal, introduced in October 2020, wary that Europe’s buying spree after the sanctions on Russian coal kick in will lead to increased competition for supplies.
Brussels Cozies Up to Azerbaijan. The European Commission has been working on a memorandum that would stipulate its goal of increasing Azerbaijani gas imports to at least 20 billion cubic meters by 2027, currently taking in 8 bcm via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) that ends in Italy.
Nationalization Boosted EDF Shares. Trading in shares of French energy firm EDF was suspended this week, up 13% week-on-week, as the French government prepares to nationalize the remaining 16% of shares it does not own still at a buyout price of close to €13 per shares, a 30% premium to current prices.
Indonesia Discovery Buoys Mubadala Upstream Plans. The UAE-based Mubadala Petroleum discovered a net 118-meter gas column with its Timpan-1 exploration well offshore North Sumatra, with the Indonesian find de-risking at least several TCf gas reserves in the basin.
Warren Buffett Still Likes Occidental Very Much. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has continued buying up shares of Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY), adding another 4.3 million shares this week and taking total ownership of the oil firm to 19.2% (the equivalent of 179.4 million shares).
Japan Accelerates Nuclear Restart Amid Power Supply Qualms. The Japanese government is working towards the restart of four nuclear reactors before the onset of the 2022/2023 winter season, bringing the total number of operating units to nine, the highest number since the Fukushima incident.
China Moves to Limit Fertilizer Exports. China is rolling out a quota system to limit exports of phosphates, a key ingredient to producing fertilizers, that should see the light of the day at some point in H2, with early reports indicating the quotas will be set significantly lower than current export levels.
Oil prices plunge, dropping below $100 per barrel
Prices of oil futures dropped in overnight trade while supply concerns fueled market uncertainty the previous week. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced that the country plans to increase oil production to 13 million barrels per day. Previously, Saudi Arabia stated that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners will continue to assess market conditions and take appropriate action. Meanwhile, rising cases of positive COVID-19 patients in China prompt concerns about nationwide lockdowns, seemingly reducing demand in the world’s biggest consumer.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for deliveries in August fell by 1.39% to go for $96.23 per barrel at 8:58 pm ET, while Brent for September settlements plummeted by 1.04%, to sell for $99.51 per barrel at the same time. NN: markets are in turmoil. Its hard to get a bead on supplies verses demand, versus inflation, versus recession. Never make a trade when you are not clear on the fundamentals. These things have a way of sorting themselves out given a little bit of time.
US consumer confidence near all time lows in July
Copper Prices Plummet To Lowest Levels Since 2020
Copper price action continues to show massive bear trends and signals further declines. The continuous breakdown of short-term trading ranges fosters a volatile market. This leaves industrial buyers at risk of inventory value fluctuations. Copper prices peaked in March, muted demand from China triggered the beginning of the price downtrend. The impact of China’s lockdowns started taking effect during the second half of April. The price descent continued following a brief rebound. However, it failed to overtake its previous high as Shanghai emerged from lockdowns. However, bearish focus shifted growing fears of an economic recession in the West. China’s recovery has, thus far, failed to reverse the downward momentum. However, any backtracking could accelerate the current free fall in prices that now sit nearly 30% beneath their March 7 peak. According to a recent Reuters report, China will create a state infrastructure investment fund totaling nearly $75 billion in Q3. Its latest moves follow President Xi’s late-April commitment for an “all-out” strengthening of infrastructure construction. While projects will likely be expansive, Xi emphasized “sci-tech” infrastructure. China looks toward building its digital economy as well. To fund its ambitions, China’s cabinet announced it would raise the credit quota for policy banks by $120 billion. It will also issue nearly $45 billion in financial bonds. While China’s stimulus measures extend beyond infrastructure, infrastructure spending appears as the priority. NN: I can tell you for a fact that lithium and copper are the metals to watch. Lithium goes into electric car batteries and cooper makes the motors go round. The lefties will cram electric transportation vehicles down the public’s throats. I am not worried i have my 6 average price 3000 euros.And the metals prices like all commodities are crashing… Inflation is over…