Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei left a message for United States President Donald Trump on Tuesday, saying that Washington “won’t be able to destroy” Tehran, as it hasn’t been able to do so in the past 47 years. “They keep saying an aircraft carrier was sent toward Iran. An aircraft carrier is indeed a dangerous tool, but the weapon capable of sending it to the bottom of the sea is even more dangerous,” Khamenei commented during a speech. Meanwhile, a second round of nuclear negotiations between the two countries is currently underway in Geneva.
Iran starts military drills in Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) started military drills in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, as it was reported it would. According to the local Tasnim Agency, the exercise, titled Smart Control of Hormuz Strait, was organized to test the army ahead of “possible security and military threats.” The drills came ahead of Iran’s negotiations with the United States on its nuclear status in Geneva. The use of the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the main points of discussion and misunderstanding between Iran and Washington.
NN: See my email and previous news stories
Netanyahu: Dismantling Iran’s nuclear program a must
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a conference on Sunday that any deal with Iran must include the dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure, noting that he still feels sceptical about the whole situation. “All enrichment has to leave Iran. There should be no enrichment capability. Not stopping the enrichment process, but dismantle the infrastructure that allows you to enrich in the first place,” he commented. He further added that the issue of Iran’s ballistic missile program also needs to be addressed. “The axis of terror” must be dismantled, Netanyahu insisted. Talking about Hamas, he underscored that its tunnels need to be destroyed. So far, Israel dismantled 150 kilometers of a total of 500 kilometers of these tunnels, Netanyahu noted.
Trump might back strikes on Iran’s ballistic program
United States President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu back in December 2025 that, should talks with Iran fall through, he would support Israel targeting Tehran’s ballistic missile program, CBS News reported on Sunday, citing sources.
The two sources detailed that US military and intelligence figures have been having internal talks about the possibility of backing a second round of Israeli attacks against Iran.
The focus has been on how Washington could assist in such a mission, including a potential aerial refueling for Israeli jets, as well as the question of ensuring overflight permission for the airspace of other countries in the Middle East. It remains unclear which countries could give such permissions, as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates all previously said they would forbid the use of their airspace for such purposes.
Crown prince urges the world to stand with the people of Iran as 250,000 rally in Munich
About 250,000 people demonstrated on Saturday against Iran’s government on the sidelines of a gathering of world leaders in Germany, police said, answering a call from Iran ’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi for cranked-up international pressure on Tehran. Banging drums and chanting for regime change, the giant and boisterous rally in Munich was part of what Pahlavi described as a “global day of action” to support Iranians in the wake of deadly nationwide protests. He also called for demonstrations in Los Angeles and Toronto. Police said in a post on X that the number of protesters reached some 250,000, more than the organizers had expected.
“Change, change, regime change” the huge crowd chanted, waving green-white-and-red flags with lion and sun emblems. Iran used that flag before its 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the Pahlavi dynasty.
At a news conference, Pahlavi warned of more deaths in Iran if “democracies stand by and watch” following Iran’s deadly crackdown on protesters last month. “We gather at an hour of profound peril to ask: Will the world stand with the people of Iran?” he asked. He added that the survival of Iran’s government “sends a clear signal to every bully: kill enough people and you stay in power.” An estimated 350,000 people marched on the streets of Toronto as part of the Global Day of Action Rally, Toronto Police spokesperson Laura Brabant said. At the Munich rally, demonstrators sported “Make Iran Great Again” red caps, mimicking the MAGA caps worn by U.S. President Donald Trump ‘s supporters. Among those sporting the caps was U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina who gave a speech to the crowd during which he was photographed holding up the headwear. Many at the rally waved placards showing Pahlavi, some that called him a king. The son of Iran’s deposed shah has been in exile for nearly 50 years but is trying to position himself as a player in Iran’s future. The crowd chanted “Pahlavi for Iran,” and “democracy for Iran” as drums and cymbals sounded. “We have huge hopes and (are) looking forward that the regime is going to change hopefully,” said Daniyal Mohtashamian, a demonstrator who traveled from Zurich, in Switzerland, to speak for protesters inside Iran who faced repression. “There is an internet blackout, and their voices are not going outside of Iran,” he said. About 500 protesters also rallied outside the presidential palace in Nicosia, Cyprus, with many holding up banners with slogans against Iran’s government and in favor of Pahlavi. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency says at least 7,005 people were killed in last month’s protests, including 214 government forces. It has been accurate in counting deaths during previous rounds of unrest in Iran and relies on a network of activists inside Iran to verify deaths. Iran’s government offered its only death toll on Jan. 21, saying 3,117 people were killed. Iran’s theocracy in the past has undercounted or not reported fatalities from past unrest. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the death toll, given authorities have disrupted internet access and international calls in Iran. Iranian leaders are facing renewed pressure from Trump, who has threatened U.S. military action. Trump wants Iran to further scale back its nuclear program. He suggested Friday that regime change in Iran “would be the best thing that could happen.” Iran was also the focus of protests in Munich on Friday, the opening day of an annual security conference in the city gathering European leaders and global security figures. Supporters of the Iranian opposition group People’s Mujahedeen Organization of Iran, also known as the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq, demonstrated.
NN: This is a golden opportunity to clean out this global sponsor of terrorism. Lets hope Trump does not blow it
The oil market knows something BIG is about to happen.
The temperature in the Persian Gulf has risen to the boiling point
President Donald Trump stated publicly that it has been “difficult to make a deal” with Iran and warned that “sometimes you have to have fear.” At the same time, U.S. officials confirmed the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long military operations if diplomacy fails.
That is not a headline. That is a posture shift.
Two U.S. aircraft carriers are now positioned in the region. Additional fighter squadrons, guided-missile destroyers, and thousands of troops are deploying. This is not symbolic force projection. This is sustained-operation readiness. And here’s what matters to us:
The United States fully expects Iran to retaliate. If strikes occur, planners anticipate back-and-forth exchanges — not a one-off event.
Now let’s talk oil. Iran exports roughly 1.5–2.0 million barrels per day directly, much of it flowing quietly toward China despite sanctions. But that’s only the surface number. Roughly 20% of global oil supply — nearly 20 million barrels per day — moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Any disruption, even temporary, immediately injects a risk premium into Brent crude. Insurance rates spike. Tanker routes shift. Freight spreads widen. Refiners scramble for alternative grades. Markets do not wait for missiles to fly.
They price probability. We have already seen risk premiums creep into futures structure when tensions flare. The real acceleration begins if:
• Iranian missile forces target a U.S. base in Qatar, Bahrain, or Kuwait
• Proxy forces escalate in Iraq or Syria
• Maritime harassment increases in Hormuz
• Israel becomes directly engaged In a sustained campaign scenario,
U.S. strikes would likely expand beyond nuclear facilities to include state and security infrastructure. That shifts the calculus from limited deterrence to systemic escalation.
That’s when oil can spike $25, Brent oil topping over $100. in a matter of days
We’ve seen similar magnitude moves in prior Gulf crises — 1. Tanker War (1980s Iran–Iraq Conflict)
- Repeated attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf introduced a persistent risk premium into oil prices.
- Supply never fully shut down, yet prices remained elevated compared to fundamentals.
- The market priced sustained risk rather than a single event.
Key takeaway:
Persistent Gulf risk can keep risk premiums priced in even without physical interruption — exactly what we’re seeing now.
2. September 2019: Abqaiq/Khurais Strikes
- Houthi/IRGC-linked strikes temporarily knocked out ~5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi capacity.
Market move:
- Brent surged nearly 15% in one session — one of the largest one-day percentage moves on record.
This was a real supply shock — and even though production was restored quickly, the price spike size showed how vulnerable the market is when core infrastructure is hit.
3. January 2020: Soleimani Strike
- Following the U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani:
- Brent spiked sharply in early trade.
- Once initial fears of full-scale retaliation eased, the market gave back much of the move.
Inference for today:
If the current situation remains contained and diplomatic channels win, we might see a similar spike-fade pattern.
But if we move into sustained exchanges — as Pentagon officials are preparing for — we shift into a continued follow-through regime rather than a one-off blip.
What This Means for Brent
| Scenario | Likely Price Response |
|---|---|
| Contained, diplomacy prevails | Spike → Pullback |
| Limited strike on infrastructure | $10–$15 move → Volatility range expansion |
| Sustained exchange + retaliation | Break above $90, momentum toward $95+ |
| Hormuz disruption credible | $100+ psychological target |
Why It Matters Now
Right now, the market isn’t tight because of current flows —
it’s tight because of potential interruption.
That’s a key distinction: risk gets priced before a bullet is fired.
Today’s spare capacity cushion is thinner than most assume once you strip out theoretical OPEC barrels. Speaking of OPEC — they are watching closely. Saudi Arabia does not want uncontrolled price spikes that destroy demand. But neither will they flood the market to compensate for Iranian supply losses while missiles are flying. That creates a volatility pocket. Add to this:
• Commercial airlines adjusting Middle East routes around Iram
• U.S. bomber and carrier deployment
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warning of base-level retaliation
This is how geopolitical risk reprices commodities. The oil market is not tight because of current flows. It is tight because of potential interruption. That distinction matters. Since we last spoke, the probability tree widened. Diplomacy continues quietly in Oman.
But military planners are preparing for the alternative. Markets will move before politicians announce decisions. The question is not whether tensions exist. The question is when traders will positioned for sustained escalation.
We are monitoring: – Hormuz traffic volume – Brent time spreads – U.S. SPR posture – OPEC commentary – Iranian export tracking – Regional military activity
Volatility creates opportunity — but only for those prepared before the headline crosses the wire. We will continue to update you as this develops. Stay alert.
Nick
Better than chocolate and roses…. money
Listen carefully.
Brent crude is sitting just under 70 dollars a barrel.
That is not random number. That is the breakout shelf.
Above $70, the oil market stops pricing headlines —
and starts pricing escalation.
Above $80, systematic money piles in.
Above $100, psychology changes. and its off to the races
right now, military planners are preparing for sustained operations — not a symbolic strike.
they are planning the end of the Ayatollahs bloody reign of terror.
In 2019, the attack on the Saudi Aramco’s oil processing facilities caused oil to jump in a single session. from $60 to $70
In 2020, when Soleimani was assassinated — oi jumped $3.00 Brent crude hit $69.16 a barrel on the news,
In both these instances not one drop of oil was removed from te market
This time its different
Twenty percent of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
If that corridor becomes even partially threatened, as Iran has promised crude oil does not drift higher.
It does a moon shot a record breakout to the upside
The language coming out of Washington and the biggest military build up in the Middle East means the US is about to strike Iran with a devastating blow.
Trump says he wants regime change
Oil does not wait for missiles.
It reprices probability and quickly.
If Brent oil breaks above $70 volatility accelerates fast. And $100 oil here we come
And when oil breaks out, it does not send invitations.
You either positioned early.
Or you react to late.
We are watching this $70 oil level closely and the continuing US military escalation.
You should be too.
The oil market knows something BIG is about to happen.
President Donald Trump stated publicly that it has been “difficult to make a deal” with Iran and warned that “sometimes you have to have fear.” At the same time, U.S. officials confirmed the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long military operations if diplomacy fails.
That is not a headline. That is a posture shift.
Two U.S. aircraft carriers are now positioned in the region. Additional fighter squadrons, guided-missile destroyers, and thousands of troops are deploying. This is not symbolic force projection. This is sustained-operation readiness. And here’s what matters to us:
The United States fully expects Iran to retaliate. If strikes occur, planners anticipate back-and-forth exchanges — not a one-off event.
Now let’s talk oil. Iran exports roughly 1.5–2.0 million barrels per day directly, much of it flowing quietly toward China despite sanctions. But that’s only the surface number. Roughly 20% of global oil supply — nearly 20 million barrels per day — moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Any disruption, even temporary, immediately injects a risk premium into Brent crude. Insurance rates spike. Tanker routes shift. Freight spreads widen. Refiners scramble for alternative grades. Markets do not wait for missiles to fly.
They price probability. We have already seen risk premiums creep into futures structure when tensions flare. The real acceleration begins if:
• Iranian missile forces target a U.S. base in Qatar, Bahrain, or Kuwait
• Proxy forces escalate in Iraq or Syria
• Maritime harassment increases in Hormuz
• Israel becomes directly engaged In a sustained campaign scenario,
U.S. strikes would likely expand beyond nuclear facilities to include state and security infrastructure. That shifts the calculus from limited deterrence to systemic escalation.
That’s when oil can spike $25, Brent oil topping over $100. in a matter of days
We’ve seen similar magnitude moves in prior Gulf crises — 1. Tanker War (1980s Iran–Iraq Conflict)
- Repeated attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf introduced a persistent risk premium into oil prices.
- Supply never fully shut down, yet prices remained elevated compared to fundamentals.
- The market priced sustained risk rather than a single event.
Key takeaway:
Persistent Gulf risk can keep risk premiums priced in even without physical interruption — exactly what we’re seeing now.
2. September 2019: Abqaiq/Khurais Strikes
- Houthi/IRGC-linked strikes temporarily knocked out ~5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi capacity.
Market move:
- Brent surged nearly 15% in one session — one of the largest one-day percentage moves on record.
This was a real supply shock — and even though production was restored quickly, the price spike size showed how vulnerable the market is when core infrastructure is hit.
3. January 2020: Soleimani Strike
- Following the U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani:
- Brent spiked sharply in early trade.
- Once initial fears of full-scale retaliation eased, the market gave back much of the move.
Inference for today:
If the current situation remains contained and diplomatic channels win, we might see a similar spike-fade pattern.
But if we move into sustained exchanges — as Pentagon officials are preparing for — we shift into a continued follow-through regime rather than a one-off blip.
What This Means for Brent
| Scenario | Likely Price Response |
|---|---|
| Contained, diplomacy prevails | Spike → Pullback |
| Limited strike on infrastructure | $10–$15 move → Volatility range expansion |
| Sustained exchange + retaliation | Break above $90, momentum toward $95+ |
| Hormuz disruption credible | $100+ psychological target |
Why It Matters Now
Right now, the market isn’t tight because of current flows —
it’s tight because of potential interruption.
That’s a key distinction: risk gets priced before a bullet is fired.
Today’s spare capacity cushion is thinner than most assume once you strip out theoretical OPEC barrels. Speaking of OPEC — they are watching closely. Saudi Arabia does not want uncontrolled price spikes that destroy demand. But neither will they flood the market to compensate for Iranian supply losses while missiles are flying. That creates a volatility pocket. Add to this:
• Commercial airlines adjusting Middle East routes around Iram
• U.S. bomber and carrier deployment
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warning of base-level retaliation
This is how geopolitical risk reprices commodities. The oil market is not tight because of current flows. It is tight because of potential interruption. That distinction matters. Since we last spoke, the probability tree widened. Diplomacy continues quietly in Oman.
But military planners are preparing for the alternative. Markets will move before politicians announce decisions. The question is not whether tensions exist. The question is when traders will positioned for sustained escalation.
We are monitoring: – Hormuz traffic volume – Brent time spreads – U.S. SPR posture – OPEC commentary – Iranian export tracking – Regional military activity
Volatility creates opportunity — but only for those prepared before the headline crosses the wire. We will continue to update you as this develops. Stay alert.
Nick
US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations
WASHINGTON, Feb 13 (Reuters) – The U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters, in what could become a far more serious conflict than previously seen between the countries. The disclosure by the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the planning, raises the stakes for the diplomacy underway between the United States and Iran. U.S. and Iranian diplomats held talks in Oman last week in an effort to revive diplomacy over Tehran’s nuclear program, after Trump amassed military forces in the region, raising fears of new military action. U.S. officials said on Friday the Pentagon was sending an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East, adding thousands more troops along with fighter aircraft, guided-missile destroyers and other firepower capable of waging attacks and defending against them. Trump, speaking to U.S. troops on Friday at a base in North Carolina, said it had “been difficult to make a deal” with Iran.
“Sometimes you have to have fear. That’s the only thing that really will get the situation taken care of,” Trump said.
Asked for comment on the preparations for a potentially sustained U.S. military operation, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said: “President Trump has all options on the table with regard to Iran.” “He listens to a variety of perspectives on any given issue, but makes the final decision based on what is best for our country and national security,” Kelly said. The Pentagon declined to comment. The United States sent two aircraft carriers to the region last year, when it carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. However, June’s “Midnight Hammer” operation was essentially a one-off U.S. attack, with stealth bombers flying from the United States to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran staged a very limited retaliatory strike on a U.S. base in Qatar. The planning underway this time is more complex, the officials said. In a sustained campaign, the U.S. military could hit Iranian state and security facilities, not just nuclear infrastructure, one of the officials said. The official declined to provide specific detail. Experts say the risks to U.S. forces would be far greater in such an operation against Iran, which boasts a formidable arsenal of missiles. Retaliatory Iranian strikes also increase the risk of a regional conflict. The same official said the United States fully expected Iran to retaliate, leading to back-and-forth strikes and reprisals over a period of time. The White House and Pentagon did not respond to questions about the risks of retaliation or regional conflict. Trump has repeatedly threatened to bomb Iran over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and crushing of internal dissent. On Thursday, he warned the alternative to a diplomatic solution would “be very traumatic, very traumatic.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that in case of strikes on Iranian territory, they could retaliate against any U.S. military base. The U.S. maintains bases throughout the Middle East, including in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Trump for talks in Washington on Wednesday, saying that if an agreement with Iran were reached, “it must include the elements that are vital to Israel. Iran has said it is prepared to discuss curbs on its nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions, but has ruled out linking the issue to missiles.
NN: The us will soon attack attack
Trump: Iran’s regime change would be the best thing
United States President Donald Trump said on Friday that a regime change in Iran would be “the best thing that could happen,” amid ongoing tensions as Washington prepares to send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. “Give us the deal they should’ve given us the first time. If they give us the right deal, we won’t do it. But, you know, historically, they haven’t done that. I will say, they wanna talk, but so far they do a lot of talking and no action,” Trump told reporters following his Fort Bragg visit, after being asked what Iran can do to avoid being attacked. The US president claimed that the Middle Eastern country has been “very difficult” to reach a deal with, after previously expressing hope of doing so within a month.