United States crude oil stockpiles, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) declined by 2.3 million barrels in the week ending January 23, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed in its report on Wednesday. At the same time, crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million barrels per day (bpd) during the reported period. Refineries operated at 90.9% of their operable capacity. Meanwhile, gasoline production rose and averaged 9.6 million barrels per day. Oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day, falling by 804,000 barrels per day week-on-week. Total commercial petroleum inventories went up by 6.8 million barrels.
Gold and silver about to crash
The warning signs are everywhere. None existent uncertainty metals being repriced all at once. Its armature hour as social media is pushing fear on small investors especially baby boomers.
This compares structurally to 1979–80 rally and wipe out
Iran Blast Near Pakdasht Base As US Armada Gathers Offshore
As U.S. armada edges closer to Iran’s doorstep, strange booms near a military site southeast of Tehran have set social media on fire. Officials insist there was no explosion at the Pakdasht facility, just “routine tests” and “standard activity,” but many online are already whispering about covert strikes and psychological warfare. At the same time, Iran’s generals warn that any “limited, clean” U.S. operation would spiral out of Washington’s control. Is this just noise in the night—or the first tremor of a conflict nobody can contain?
NN: Time to get the virgins ready!
The Cognac Industry Is in Crisis
After years of exuberant demand for Cognac, the industry is nursing a hangover, with shipments last year falling to 141 million bottles, the lowest level since 2009, according to BNIC, a trade group of producers. And consumption will drop about 2% annually through 2029, data tracker IWSR predicts. “We didn’t see this violent crisis coming,” says Thibaut Delrieu, managing director of Hine, a small brand that laid off more than a third of its workers last year and is pulling vines from about 10% of its 129 hectares. “We haven’t yet hit bottom.” Cognac producers are being shaken by a pronounced shift away from booze coupled with a cost-of-living squeeze that’s cut demand for luxury goods. Those difficulties have been compounded by rising tariffs in the US and China, which jointly account for more than half of total consumption of Cognac. Taken together, those factors threaten a business valued at €2.2 billion ($2.6 billion) a year for distilling giants Pernod Ricard, LVMH and Rémy Cointreau, and scores of smaller houses. And for France, the sales downturn could quickly become a crisis, as more than 70,000 jobs in the country are tied to the spirit’s production, BNIC estimates.
Cognac is made from a fermented grape juice that’s distilled twice to yield a spirit called eau-de-vie. That’s stored in barrels of oak from nearby forests for at least two years to develop flavor and color—with premium versions aged for a decade or more. Producers typically have enough supplies on hand to cover seven years of demand, but today that stands at a record 11 years, according to BNIC. Storing any more, says Delrieu, would require expanded facilities and more barrels. “The inventory situation is very tricky, because building new cellars is expensive,” he says. “Counterintuitively, that premium stock could lose value over time,” says Pierre-Eric Perrin, a partner at Eight Advisory, a financial consulting firm that works with Cognac makers. The decline in sales is particularly painful for Hennessy, owned by LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE. The brand accounts for about half of all shipments, putting it far ahead of Rémy Martin, Martell and Courvoisier, which together make up a third of the market. Tt Hennessy the downturn was aggravated by the brand’s decision to raise prices following the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly in the US, a move that was “disconnected from reality and backfired with consumers,” Devers says. Hennessy declined to comment. And producers are counting on government help in mitigating the damage from a trade spat with China. The country in 2024 imposed hefty levies on brandy—most of which was Cognac—and withdrew the drink from duty-free shops after the European Union announced steep taxes on Chinese electric vehicles. China’s brandy imports declined almost 40%, to 22 million liters, in 2025, according to Chinese customs data. A July deal exempting most producers from the duties hasn’t returned shipments to the levels seen before the trade spat. BNIC will meet with French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard on Feb. 3 to ask for her support in seeking compensation from the EU to make up for sales lost due to the Chinese tariffs.
For now, some in the industry are beginning to consider a more drastic measure: destroying inventory. “It’s something that’s obviously being mentioned,” says Anthony Brun, chairman of the Cognac winegrowers’ group UGVC. There’s huge resistance among producers, though, who have little incentive to dump spirits that theoretically only increase in price as they age.
Last year, BNIC ordered producers to cut their output of eau-de-vie per hectare to half what they’d made four years ago. And the group, which includes virtually all of the major producers, aims to shrink acreage under cultivation by 13%. “Cognac has been through worse crises in the past and survived,” says Florent Morillon, the head of BNIC.
US aircraft carrier enters Middle East
WASHINGTON, – A U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships have arrived in the Middle East, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday, expanding President Donald Trump’s capabilities to defend U.S. forces, or potentially take military action against Iran. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers have crossed into the Middle East region, which comes under the U.S. military’s Central Command, the officials told Reuters. Trump said on Thursday that the United States had an “armada” heading toward Iran, but hoped he would not have to use it. The warships began deploying from the Asia-Pacific region earlier this month, as tensions between Iran and the United States escalated following a crackdown on protests across Iran. Trump had repeatedly threatened to intervene if Iran continued to kill protesters, but the countrywide demonstrations have since abated. The president said he had been told that killings were subsiding and that he believes there is currently no plan for the executions of prisoners. The U.S. military has in the past surged forces into the Middle East at times of heightened tensions, moves that were often defensive.
However, the U.S. military staged a major buildup last year ahead of its June strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.
In addition to the carrier and warships, the Pentagon is also moving fighter jets and air-defense systems to the Middle East. Over the weekend, the U.S. military announced that it would carry out an exercise in the region “to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower.” A senior Iranian official said last week that Tehran would consider any attack as an “all-out-war against us.” The United Arab Emirates said on Monday that it will not let its airspace, territory or territorial waters be used for any hostile military actions against Iran.
The U.S. military’s Al Dhafra Air Base is located south of the UAE capital Abu Dhabi and has been a critical U.S. Air Force hub in support of key missions against the Islamic State, as well as reconnaissance deployments across the region.
NN: I still think Trump will strike.
Silver reaches new all-time high of $110…..Gold hits new all-time high of $5,000
Silver continued gaining ground on Monday, hitting a fresh record high of $110 per ounce. The recent surge in safe investments was partly motivated by geopolitical turmoil and worries about the state of the United States economy, as well as uncertainty surrounding the course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the central bank’s independence. Silver soared 7.39% at 4:36 am ET, going for $109.88 per ounce. The precious metal is up 53.7% since the start of the year. Gold gained 2.27% at 4:39 am ET and went for $5,094.20 per ounce. Platinum jumped 4.28% to go for $2,889.67 per ounce, while palladium added 2.61% and went for $2,067.78 per ounce.
Gold hits new all-time high of $5,000
Gold climbed above $5,000 per ounce for the first time, underscoring investors’ flight to safety amid diminishing confidence in other assets due to geopolitical tensions and persistent trade uncertainties. The rally towards the stunning milestone was driven in no small part by United States President Donald Trump’s often seismic policy shifts, which have, at their most recent, put a strain on relations between Washington and other NATO members over Greenland. Gold went up by 0.64% to go for $5,015.65 per ounce at 6:07 pm ET. Silver surged 2.51% to $104.68 per ounce at 6:11 pm ET. Platinum dropped by 0.66% a minute later to $2,753.51 per ounce, while palladium went down by 0.44% to go for $2,008 per ounce.
American Bombers and Fighters Deploy to Bases in Qatar and Jordan
The UK Ministry of Defence confirmed on 22 January that 12 Squadron, the joint RAF–Qatar Typhoon unit, had deployed to the Gulf in a defensive capacity under the UK–Qatar Defence Assurance Agreement. According to the MoD, the deployment reflects “regional tensions” and builds on longstanding cooperation between the two countries, including shared flying training on Hawk and Typhoon aircraft in the UK. The squadron has previously deployed to Qatar for joint training and exercises such as EPIC SKIES and SOARING FALCON, aimed at strengthening interoperability and regional security. “Qatar and the UK are close partners with historic defence ties going back decades. This partnership bolsters the national security of both our nations and supports stability in the Gulf region,” says Defence Secretary John Healey MP. “Today’s deployment builds on those shared aims as Typhoon jets from our joint squadron deploy to support its defence.” The deployment also comes alongside the UK government’s recently announced £500m investment to upgrade the RAF’s Typhoon fleet, reinforcing the aircraft’s role as a core element of the UK’s combat air capability.
In parallel, a dozen US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles, backed by spare aircraft and tanker support, departed RAF Lakenheath in mid-January, with their arrival in the Middle East confirmed by US Central Command imagery. Open-source analysis and supporting airlift activity strongly indicate that the aircraft were deployed to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, a long-standing hub for US combat operations. The base is known to host a mix of US tactical aircraft and ISR assets and is currently assessed to include a detachment of A-10C Thunderbolt II aircraft. While F-15Es have maintained a steady presence in Jordan for years, the scale and timing of the latest movements, alongside increased tanker and C-17 strategic airlift activity, point to a broader reinforcement rather than a routine rotation.
US carrier strike group moves toward the Middle East
Adding weight to the air deployments, the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has been ordered to redeploy west from the South China Sea and is now moving towards the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea.
The carrier brings with it a full embarked air wing, including F-35C Lightning II, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers and E-2D Hawkeyes, significantly expanding US strike, electronic warfare and air defence options in the region. Its escorting cruisers and destroyers add substantial missile defence and strike capacity.
So far, there has been no clear evidence of a major US bomber deployment to Diego Garcia, suggesting the current posture is focused on flexibility and deterrence rather than signalling imminent offensive action.
What Trump has said about Iran and the risk of escalation
Speaking aboard Air Force One this week, President Donald Trump said the United States was “watching Iran very closely” as a “big force” moved into the region, describing a “massive fleet” heading towards the Gulf.
While Trump said he would “rather not see anything happen”, his comments explicitly linked the redeployment of US naval and air assets to Iran, underlining Washington’s intent to maintain military pressure while keeping its options open.
For now, the movements appear designed to create options, bolster regional defences and deter escalation. Whether the buildup stabilises or expands further is likely to depend on developments inside Iran and the calculations made in Washington and allied capitals in the days ahead.
Get the latest aerospace defence news here on AGN.Get the latest aerospace defence news here on AGN.
Featured image: RAF
Russia Sees No Breakthrough at Ukraine Talks With US Envoys
- The Kremlin said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved after President Vladimir Putin held talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on the latest peace plan for ending Russia’s war on Ukraine.
- Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, said there’s “no hope of achieving a long-term settlement” to the war until Russia’s demands for territory in Ukraine are accepted.
- Talks between US, Russian and Ukrainian representatives started in the United Arab Emirates and were expected to continue into Saturday, with discussions to include the question of Donbas and the modalities of a potential peace deal. The Kremlin said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved after President Vladimir Putin held late-night talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on the latest peace plan for ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. There’s “no hope of achieving a long-term settlement” to the war until Russia’s demands for territory in Ukraine are accepted, Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, said in an audio recording on Telegram early Friday. That’s even as he characterized the almost four hours of negotiations in the Kremlin as “exceptionally substantive, constructive.” Talks between US, Russian and Ukrainian representatives got started in the United Arab Emirates on Friday and were expected to continue into Saturday, Tass reported, citing the UAE’s Foreign Ministry. Separately, Witkoff and Putin’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, will discuss bilateral Russia-US economic matters in Abu Dhabi. This was Witkoff’s seventh visit to Putin in the past year as US President Donald Trump has pushed for a peace deal, so far without success. US and Ukrainian officials have said they’ve made significant progress on a 20-point plan to end the Russian full-scale invasion that’s lasted almost four years and spiraled into Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II.
Still, Kyiv and Moscow remain at an impasse on key points including Putin’s demands for parts of Ukraine that remain under Kyiv’s control in its eastern Donbas territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Russia is insisting on securing what it calls the “Anchorage understandings” reached at Putin’s August summit with Trump in Alaska. That would require Ukraine to turn over the whole of eastern Donetsk, while fighting would be frozen along the current lines of contact in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Ukraine rejects demands to withdraw its forces from heavily fortified areas of Donetsk that Putin’s military has failed to occupy in fighting that stretches back to 2014. US proposals have suggested turning the unoccupied area into a de-militarized or free economic zone under special administration. An agreement on postwar security guarantees for Ukraine “is ready for signing,” Zelenskiy said Friday. “This document will be the basis for more documents. But we have got the core, highway agreement on the security guarantees.”
Even as peace negotiations go on, Putin has stepped up strikes on Ukraine’s power sector in freezing winter temperatures, leaving millions of people without heating and water. Ukraine has also struck Russian energy infrastructure causing disruptions. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko warned residents Friday that “the situation is extremely difficult” and urged them to store water, food and any needed medications at home because of the likelihood of further Russian attacks. More than 1,900 apartment buildings are still without heating following Tuesday’s strikes, he said. A visibly angry Zelenskiy tore into Europe for its apparent lack of willingness to stop Putin during a speech in Davos on Thursday.
“Europe loves to discuss the future but avoids taking action today,” he told the audience. “Where is the line of leaders who are ready to act?”
Some airlines cancel flights to Middle East
Major European airlines have temporarily halted services to some countries in the Middle East on Friday amid growing security concerns linked to potential United States military action against Iran. Air France and KLM cancelled flights to Tel Aviv, Dubai, and Saudi destinations over the weekend, following Lufthansa Group’s recent decision to suspend night‑time flights to Israel through the end of January, according to the Times of Israel. Meanwhile, Dutch public broadcaster NOS quoted KLM saying it will not fly to Israel, Dubai, Dammam, or Riyadh “due to the geopolitical situation,” and will avoid Iraqi, Iranian, Israeli, and Gulf airspace for now.
NN: A classified briefing was given to the airline. And within minuets they cancelled flights to the war zone
US issues new sanctions against Iranian ‘shadow fleet’
The United States Treasury Department Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued fresh sanctions against Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet,” targeting nine vessels and eight related firms, amid the ongoing protests in Iran. According to the Treasury, the sanctioned vessels and entities, some of which are based in India, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, collectively facilitated the transport of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil and petroleum products to foreign markets and used that revenue to fund “regional terrorist proxies, weapons programs, and security services.” US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent stated that these measures target a “critical component of how Iran generates the funds used to repress its own people,” adding that the Treasury will continue to “track the tens of millions of dollars that the regime has stolen and is desperately attempting to wire to banks outside of Iran.”