Fitch: Global oil volumes unlikely to change quickly

 

Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday that global oil volumes are unlikely to change quickly due to the situation in Venezuela, predicting that any potential increase in output in the country will take “quite a long time.” Meanwhile, the agency said that a drop in Iran’s exports due to widespread anti-government protests could affect the volume of transports, although Iran is already under sanctions and already mostly uses a shadow fleet.

Fitch said that the redirection of Venezuelan oil could result in an increase in tanker rates in the near to medium term “due to a shift to the mainstream fleet from shadow tankers.” It also saw the possibility of downside risks for tanker rates if shipping is resumed through the Suez Canal or if global economic growth weakens.

Trump trolls European leaders with wild AI image of him planting US flag on Greenland, leaks fawning texts from world leadersTrump’s wild AI image of him planting US flag on Greenland

President Trump trolled European leaders over Greenland by sharing an AI-generated picture of himself planting a US flag on the autonomous Danish territory — as he leaked fawning text messages from world statesmen ahead of the high-stakes Davos summit this week. The image, shared by the president early Tuesday on Truth Social, shows Trump marking his territory, followed by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. It also features a sign declaring Greenland a “US territory est. 2026.” In a separate AI-generated picture shared by the defiant commander-in-chief, European leaders — including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — gather around a map in the Oval Office that shows Greenland, Canada, and Venezuela absorbed into the US.

Trump trolls European leaders with a pic of him planting the US flag on Greenland. The taunting posts come as Trump ramped up his push to acquire Greenland, declaring on Tuesday that there was “no going back” on his goal and refusing to rule out taking the Arctic island by force. The president — who will join the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week — also shared a series of sweet-talking texts from Macron and Rutte praising him for recent foreign policy triumphs in Syria and elsewhere.

“My friend, we are totally in line on Syria. We can do great things on Iran,” Macron tells Trump, according to a screenshot of the exchange posted on Truth Social.

Trump leaked a fawning text from French President Emmanuel Macron. While Macron raises concerns about Trump’s desire to annex Greenland, he also makes plans for a G7 meeting in Paris on Thursday with Ukraine, Denmark, Syria and Russia, as well as scheduling a dinner for the two statesmen in Paris before Trump returns to the States. Here’s the latest on Trump’s negotiations with Greenland “Mr President, dear Donald — what you accomplished in Syria today is incredible,” Rutte also gushed in another text exchange, according to a screenshot shared by Trump. “I will use my media engagements in Davos to highlight your work there, in Gaza, and in Ukraine. I am committed to finding a way forward on Greenland. Can’t wait to see you. Yours, Mark,” the message concludes.

Greenlanders protest Trump’s demand for the island to become part of the US. REUTERS

The snarky social media flurry comes after Trump threatened further tariffs on the European powers if they try to halt his plans to purchase Greenland from Denmark. Meanwhile, on Monday, Trump warned France he would hit the country with a 200% tariff on wine and champagne if Macron didn’t agree to join his “Board of Peace” for rebuilding Gaza.

NN: The Artic is the most strategic place on earth. He who controls the artic controls the world. 

Hamm to Halt Drilling in Bakken Shale

Harold Hamm, the billionaire wildcatter who helped kick off the US shale oil revolution, said he’s about to shut down his company’s drilling in North Dakota’s Bakken for the first time in decades because of low crude prices. “This will be the first time in over 30 years that Harold Hamm has not had an operation with drilling rigs in North Dakota,” Hamm, the founder of shale driller Continental Resources Inc., said in a telephone interview Thursday. “There’s no need to drill it when margins are basically gone.” It’s a significant milestone for the Bakken. The shale patch in North Dakota is where Hamm, 80, first proved that fracking and horizontal drilling techniques could be successfully applied to previously untouchable oil reserves. The fracking revolution ushered in a new growth era in US oil and the country went on to become the world’s top producer. Operators in the US shale patch, once the world’s leader in oil production growth, are now closely watching commodity prices as they hover near the level that makes drilling profitable for producers. If prices drop into the low $50-per-barrel range for several months, companies are expected to make more drastic cuts to drilling and fracking.

While each shale basin has different cost levels, the Bakken in particular is seen as a bellwether for the direction of US crude output. The average well in the Bakken requires a minimum of $58 a barrel to cover costs and generate a small profit, according to a report from BloombergNEF. That’s up almost 4% from a year earlier, largely due to rising drilling expenses.

Meanwhile global oil prices have steadily declined in the past several months on expectations of a glut. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, has fallen 26% over the past year, trading around $60 a barrel Friday.

Even before prices began declining, shale operators started pulling back from drilling new wells over the past year or so because many of the best sites in US basins have already been tapped after years of breakneck growth. Diamondback Energy Inc., one of the biggest pure-play shale producers, said last year that production had likely already peaked in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the US’s most prolific crude region.  At the same time, tariffs have increased the cost of essential oilfield equipment such as pipe, drilling gear and generators.   “A lot of people are assessing their activity in all the basins,” said Hamm, who also has oilfield assets in Oklahoma and Texas, among other locations. The number of rigs drilling across the US has dropped by 15% over the past year, led by the cutting of 60 rigs in the Permian. Still, Hamm is leaving the door open to return to drilling in the Bakken at some point, depending on prices. “We’re price takers, as you’re aware — not price makers,” he said with a laugh. “See what we can get.”

NN: As we have talked about in the past WTI  under $60 production falls off. A price that cannot be sustained.

Zelensky: Russia ready for ‘massive’ strike

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared on Monday that Russia is ready to launch a new “massive” strike on his country, adding that it will take place in the “coming days.” In his address, Zelensky also announced Pavlo Yelizarov will assume the post of deputy head of Ukraine’s Air Force. “There will be a new approach to the use of air defense by the Air Force – in terms of mobile fire groups, interceptor drones, and other means of ‘small’ air defense. This system will be transformed,” he said on his Telegram channel. The Ukrainian leader repeatedly warned that the nation was facing a shortage of air-defense systems amid continuing Russian drone and missile strikes against energy infrastructure, leading to widespread problems with power supply.

Turn Top Line Headlines Into Bottom Line CASH

HEADLINE:

Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln Steaming Toward a Showdown

The United States, in coordination with Israel, is on the brink of a decisive military strike on Iran. One of the key targets is none other than Ayatollah Khamenei himself, along with the elite Revolutionary Guard barracks. While the world has been led to believe that tensions are de-escalating, the reality is far more intense. Oil terminals and loading platforms are also in the crosshairs, and oil prices could skyrocket to $100 a barrel almost overnight.

In the Middle East, major U.S. military assets are on high alert, and Israel is preparing for possible retaliation, opening bomb shelters and readying defenses against hypersonic missiles. The clock is ticking, and the situation is rapidly evolving. You don’t have a lot of time to prepare for what could become a historic and potentially devastating conflict.

HEADLINE:

The U.S. State Department just issued a “Do Not Travel” advisory for Iran

Urging Americans there to leave immediately. In Israel, U.S. personnel have been advised to limit non-essential travel. There’s also a warning for airlines to avoid Iranian airspace due to the risk of conflict. Essentially, the U.S. is adjusting its personnel and advising caution as tensions in the Middle East rise.

HEADLINE:

U.S. Withdraws Personnel from Middle East Bases Amid Rising Tensions

US military bases in the Middle East sending out non-essential personnel and warning about an “attack.” As of right now, the U.S. is pulling non-essential military personnel out of some key bases in the Middle East, like Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This is basically a precaution because tensions with Iran are ramping up, and Iran has been warning of retaliation against U.S. bases if there’s any military action. So for now, they’re moving folks out and advising extra caution in the region.

HEADLINE:

Israel Readies Missile Defenses and Bomb Shelters as Tensions with Iran Escalate.”

Israel is stepping up its preparations for a possible Iranian attack by boosting both its civilian and military defenses. The Israeli Air Force has put its missile defense systems like the Iron Dome on high alert to intercept any incoming threats. So overall, they’re really ramping up both their civil defenses and their military readiness to keep people safe. The Israeli Defense Forces are conducting operations in areas like Gaza and Lebanon, and they’re telling the public to follow official updates and that there’s no immediate change to defensive policies.

Iran is indeed working on rebuilding some of its nuclear facilities that were damaged in previous U.S. and Israeli strikes from mid-2025. They’re doing construction at sites like Natanz and a couple of other key locations, and that’s raising a lot of international concern. The U.S. has also warned that they might take military action if Iran is clearly rebuilding its nuclear program. So, it’s definitely a tense situation with a lot of eyes on what Iran does next. Iran has indeed been advancing its missile technology, especially around hypersonic missiles. They’ve rolled out models like the Fattah-1 and Fattah-2, which they claim can reach very high speeds and evade missile defenses. Iran has been ramping up production and is now back at full readiness. They’ve also demonstrated these missiles operationally during recent conflicts.

HEADLINE:

Senator Graham Urges Trump to Unleash ‘Holy Hell’ on Iran Through Military and Cyber Attacks.

The United States, in coordination with Israel, is on the brink of a decisive military strike on Iran. One of the key targets is none other than Ayatollah Khamenei himself, along with the elite Revolutionary Guard barracks. While the world has been led to believe that tensions are de-escalating, the reality is far more intense. Oil terminals and loading platforms are also in the crosshairs, and oil prices could skyrocket to $100 a barrel almost overnight.

sounds like a war to me

Netanyahu: If Iran attacks, we’ll act with strength

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran during his address in the Knesset on Monday of his country’s response if Tehran launches an attack on Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran during his address in the Knesset on Monday of his country’s response if Tehran launches an attack on Israel. “If Iran makes a mistake and attacks us, we will act with strength that Iran hasn’t yet known,” he vowed. Netanyahu revealed that Israel was monitoring the situation in Iran, reiterating his support for anti-government protesters, while also praising them for their “heroic struggle.” Meanwhile, tensions between Israel and the United States on one hand, and Iran on the other, remain high, despite Washington seemingly softening its rhetoric against the authorities in Iran, after US President Donald Trump previously threatened to intervene militarily in favor of the demonstrations

Pezeshkian: Attack on Khamenei would lead to war…. DAH! its already war

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on Sunday that any attack on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would lead to an “all-out war.” “If the people of Iran face hardship and difficulties in their lives, one of the main reasons for it is the longstanding enmity and inhumane sanctions imposed by the United States government and its allies,” Pezeshkian said in a post on X. “Any aggression against the Supreme Leader of our country is tantamount to all-out war against the Iranian nation,” he added. The Iranian president’s comments follow remarks from US President Donald Trump, who said that Khamenei is a “sick man” and that it is time to “look for new leadership in Iran.

NN All out war with Iran is a good thing. Now while they are weak and before they perfect their nukes.

Venezuela oil exports down as much as 75%

Venezuela’s oil exports have plunged 75% since the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro early this month, the Wall Street Journal reported based on data from trade intelligence company Kpler. Most of the oil shipments in the following days headed to the US or were used in domestic refineries. According to Kpler, almost 48 million barrels worth of oil from Venezuela are in tankers outside Venezuelan territorial waters and could be subject to sanctions and forced to turn back. The country reportedly experienced a “sharp halt” in exports to Asia, particularly China, while no Venezuelan oil has reached Cuba in January.

NN: I am convinced  that the drop in production will last for years  

US warns Iran against attacks on its bases

The United States State Department on Saturday warned Iran against striking American military bases, saying Washington is tracking reports of possible attacks. “As President [Donald] Trump has repeatedly emphasized, all options remain on the table, and if the Islamic Republic attacks American assets, it will face ‘very, very powerful force’,” the department wrote in a message posted on its Persian-language account on X. “We have said this before and we say it again, do not play games with President Trump,” the statement added. The warning comes amid rising tensions between Tehran and Washington.

Khamenei says Iran considers Trump a ‘criminal’……Iran’s Supreme Leader Acknowledges Thousands Killed In Unrest

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday accused United States President Donald Trump of being responsible for casualties during recent demonstrations, describing him as a “criminal.” “We consider the American president a criminal because of the losses, damages and accusations directed at the Iranian people,” the message, written in Arabic, said. The protests have intensified scrutiny of Iran’s government, while relations between Tehran and Washington have grown more hostile. Trump had threatened to hit Iran “hard” if more demonstrators were executed, but recently thanked the country for halting over 800 hangings.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Acknowledges Thousands Killed In Unrest

 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday said “several thousand people” died in this month’s anti-government demonstrations, his first acknowledgment of the deadly scale of the unrest. Some of those were killed “brutally and inhumanely,” Khamenei said without offering detail in a public meeting broadcast on state TV. He accused the US and Israel of aiding the killings and said the Islamic Republic has evidence to support the claim. Iran doesn’t intend to push the country toward war, but won’t allow either domestic or international criminals to go unpunished, Khamenei said. He said US President Donald Trump was culpable for “deaths, damage, and accusations he has inflicted on the Iranian people,” and that Washington’s broader policy goal was to place Iran under military, political, and economic domination. The toll suggested by Khamenei was in line with estimates from human rights groups and others that some 3,500 people had perished. The groups estimate that more than 22,000 people have been detained. The protests have taken place during a record long internet blackout for Iran’s population of about 92 million people. Earlier, local media reported that internet connectivity had been partially restored, even as most residents appeared to remain largely cut off from the outside world for a ninth day. Iran’s government shut down internet and mobile phone services on Jan. 8 to quell rising unrest sparked by a currency crisis late last month. Bloomberg’s Rosalind Mathieson explains what’s behind the protests in Iran and what’s at stake for the world. “Internet access has now been restored for some subscribers,” the semi-official Mehr news agency said without specifying which restrictions had been lifted or whether users had regained access to international platforms and services. The semi-official Fars news agency also reported that mobile text messages had been reactivated after being blocked earlier. The internet traffic monitoring group NetBlocks said there had been a “very slight rise” in connectivity on Saturday, adding that overall access remained at about 2% of normal levels, with “no indication of a significant return.” Users in Iran appeared largely offline as of early Saturday afternoon local time, with few signs of activity evident on platforms such as Telegram, Instagram, and X — services they previously accessed via virtual private networks (VPNs). Near‑total communications blackouts have become a familiar tool for Islamic Republic authorities during critical situations, from this month’s nationwide protests to the June conflict with Israel. That’s cut off much of the population from the global internet, and diverted users onto a government‑controlled domestic network that operates independently of the wider web. NetBlocks on Friday said the current blackout had surpassed the internet shutdown imposed during the country’s 2019 protests. Earlier on Saturday, Fars cited authorities who weren’t identified as saying that internet and other communications services were being gradually restored, but that some restrictions would remain in place “as long as security conditions require.”

NN: It’s  ridiculous the Ayatollah of massive world wide terrier carnage has the audacity of calling Trump a criminal. It’s a outrage that Trump has not ended his regime of terror yet!