BlackMask Breaking News

WASHINGTON — New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods were unexpectedly flat in July amid supply constraints and a shift in demand to services, suggesting that business spending on equipment could slow in the second half after robust growth over the past year. Still, business investment in equipment remains strong, with the report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showing shipments of these capital goods accelerating last month. Orders are 18% above their pre-pandemic levels. Investment in equipment is expected to help offset cooling consumer spending and keep the economy on a solid growth path this quarter. “Overall, the July data point to solid equipment spending growth at the start of third quarter,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “But with producer prices running hot and the recovery tilting in favor of high-contact services, we’re likely to see a gradual moderation in real equipment spending growth in the second half of 2021.”

Last month’s unchanged reading in orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, followed an upwardly revised 1.0% increase in June. These so-called core capital goods orders were previously reported to have advanced 0.7%.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders climbing 0.5%. Shipments of core capital goods rose 1.0% last month after increasing 0.6% in June. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measurement. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were lower. Business spending on equipment notched four straight quarters of double-digit growth, helping to power the economy’s recovery from a short and sharp COVID-19 pandemic recession, driven by strong demand for goods, thanks to record-low interest rates and massive fiscal stimulus. July’s slowdown in core capital goods orders likely reflected supply chain bottlenecks as well as the rotation of spending back to services from goods. There were decreases in orders for computers and electronic products. An ongoing global semiconductor shortage has hampered production of these goods. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components also fell. But orders for primary metals, machinery and fabricated metal products increased. With inventories extremely lean after they were depleted in the first half of the year, core capital goods orders are likely to pick up in the coming months and underpin manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the economy. Unfilled core capital goods orders increased 0.9% in July after rising 1.2% in June. “As production has not kept up with demand but demand has remained persistently strong, we would expect strong demand to keep production supported well into 2022 as supply issues are eventually resolved,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.

Retail sales fell in July in part because of motor vehicle shortages. Credit card data suggests spending on services like airfares, cruises as well as hotels and motels has been slowing.

Economists at Goldman Sachs last week cut their third-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 5.5% annualized rate from a 9% pace. Bank of America Securities slashed its GDP growth estimate for this quarter to a 4.5% pace from a 7.0% rate. The economy grew at a 6.5% rate in the second quarter, pulling the level of GDP above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more, dipped 0.1% in July after rising 0.8% in June. They were pulled down by a 2.2% decline in orders for transportation equipment, which followed a 1.4% increase in June.  Orders for civilian aircraft tumbled 48.9%. Boeing reported on its website that it had received 31 aircraft orders last month compared to 219 in June. Orders for motor vehicles and parts rose 5.8% in July after climbing 1.8% in June. Automakers have been adjusting their production schedules, including foregoing annual plant shutdowns for retooling in July, to manage their chip supply. That likely contributed to the jump in motor vehicle orders last month. “Make no mistake, auto-production is still struggling to keep up with demand,” said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. Nick Note: It is obvious their is a slow down and the spending drop on airlines and cruises and hotels is very telling since its vacation season.

If you’ve been to a grocery store lately, you’ve probably noticed that a lot of your favorite items are either missing or low in stock. In some cases, entire stretches of grocery stores are bare. Why are grocery stores having so much trouble stocking their shelves? Unless you’ve taken social distancing to the extreme and have completely shut down the outside world, then you know that the current coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) pandemic is escalating every day. People who are worried about the future have been panic-buying everything from toilet paper to water, either because they’re worried about potentially being quarantined or because they don’t want to face a shortage of goods. Ironically, it’s this panic-buying that is leading to a shortage of goods in the first place. Stores like Walmart are cutting their hours and putting purchase limits on high-demand items, but household staples are still flying off the shelves. This may lead some people to think that food production is slowing down, but that simply isn’t the case. “There is food being produced,” Julie Anna Potts, chief executive of the North American Meat Institute, told The New York Times. “There is food in warehouses. There is plenty of food in the country.” Nick Note: Sure their is. At highway robbery prices… I urge you to restock now!

An increasing number of users of the highly popular cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have found their accounts on the platform empty after hackers managed to gain access to them and drain their cryptocurrency wallets. According to a new report from CNBC, the news outlet interviewed Coinbase customers across the US to discover thousands of customer complaints. For instance, one couple logged onto the service to discover that $168k in cryptocurrency had vanished after hackers were able to take over their account. To add insult to injury, the couple was unable to reach Coinbase for support after the incident occurred. While banks now employ live chat as well as email and telephones to provide customers support, the popular cryptocurrency company only responds to customers via email. If money is accidentally transferred out of your bank account to another account, you can easily call your bank to have the transaction reversed. However, the same can’t be said for cryptocurrency as it once it’s transferred off an exchange to a bank, there’s no way to recover the lost funds. While using two-factor authentication (2FA) and a password manager can help secure your crypto accounts, cybercriminals have begun using SIM swapping as a means to take over accounts.  For those unfamiliar, sim swapping involves a cybercriminal taking control of a victim’s phone number and SIM card through their mobile carrier. From here, they can then intercept 2FA codes sent via text message to take over a victim’s other online accounts. These hacked Coinbase accounts are then sold on the Dark Web for anywhere between $100 and $150 according to Etay Maor from Cato Networks who spoke with CNBC. For this reason, if you don’t plan on exchanging your crypto for cash anytime soon, it is recommended that you store your cryptocurrency in a hardware wallet like the Ledger Nano X or the Trezor Model T instead of leaving it on a cryptocurrency exchange. This way, hackers won’t be able to steal your cryptocurrency without first breaking into your home or apartment. Nick Note: Their are a lot of takeaways from this story. You need to have a offline cold storage wallet. We are working on a interrogated solution for you. And SMS 2 part authorization is a sick joke….  a hackers dream. That is why your master card loyalty program offers 256bit  two part authorization with a key card… Its the best protection available… Even if its costs more to implement..

WASHINGTON, Aug 25 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve’s year-old promise to drive U.S. employment to new heights came at a wrenching moment last August, with 12 million jobs still missing due to the pandemic, inflation cratering to half the central bank’s target, and no clear endgame for the worst health crisis in a century. Then came three vaccines, a steady jobs recovery, trillions more dollars in fiscal stimulus, the fastest economic growth in 40 years – and surging prices. A steady shift in Fed rhetoric since inflation jumped in the spring has now triggered debate about how deep the Fed’s new commitment to jobs truly runs, and how long it will tolerate high inflation as it waits for a “broad and inclusive” rebound in employment. No decisions have been made. The Fed is actively talking about when to reduce its $120 billion per month emergency bond purchases, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell may discuss that in Friday remarks to a virtual iteration of its annual Jackson Hole research conference. The more consequential call over when to raise interest rates from near zero remains, in all likelihood, far down the road.

But with each successive report showing inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, the tone has shifted. Fed officials now readily acknowledge inflation may be more persistent than they thought. Moreover, some are lowering expectations of a full rebound to the pre-pandemic level of jobs or labor force participation.

The debate won’t be resolved soon. But the suddenly two-sided nature of the discussion has, to some, cast the value of the Fed’s new approach into doubt.

“I think they have lost their nerve,” said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. In recent comments, “they have not reinforced their commitment to broad and inclusive gains” in the labor market. Richard Clarida, the Fed’s influential chair, would disagree. At a recent presentation to the Peterson Institute, he said his outlook is for inflation above 2% for three years running, for unemployment so low by the end of 2022 that gains would be broadly felt and jobs returned to the pre-pandemic level, and a rate increase in 2023 “entirely consistent” with the Fed’s new approach.

Arguably the last few inflation readings, the latest being almost twice the targeted 2% level, would have been confronted more aggressively by previous Feds.

Some feel a tougher approach may be needed now. “It is getting a little old to say that this is a transitory increase in prices,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Mellon, pointing to surveys showing businesses ready and able to pass through price hikes. “If firms say they are worried about prices paid and they have pricing power then…we don’t have price stability. The wheels are greased for costs to pass through.” Under the new framework, though, the Fed has pledged not to nip job growth in the bud and, to be certain inflation hits the 2% target on average, will allow it to go above that level “moderately…for some time.” When the new strategy was rolled out, however, it carried an even deeper sort of pledge. Policymakers have long seen tension between unemployment and inflation. If inflation gets too high, the Fed can tame it through rate increases, albeit it at the cost of higher unemployment. When inflation is weak or unemployment high, it can cut rates and trade more jobs for higher prices. Over 10 years of economic expansion after the 2007-to-2009 recession, that relationship did not hold. As unemployment fell, inflation remained muted, and Fed officials concluded they could exploit that and take more inflation risk to create the type of “hot” economy and robust job market that helps the less well-off. Equity is not a goal addressed in the Fed’s congressional mandate, but officials have given the issue more attention as the economic costs of inequality have become better appreciated. The quandary arose when the pandemic reanimated what the Fed thought it had escaped: conflict between inflation and jobs. In the thick of the framework debate in 2019 the Fed saw ample jobs and low inflation; now inflation is high, but with 6 million fewer people working than before the pandemic. That has forced an earlier-than-expected reckoning over issues left unresolved in the new strategy. What does “moderately” mean when it comes to an inflation overshoot? How fully can the economy recreate the pre-pandemic conditions where, for instance, unemployment hit record lows for African Americans and the share of adults employed or looking for work was climbing steadily? The “labor force participation rate” hit 63.4% in January 2020. It’s now 61.7%. Black unemployment hit a record low 5.2% in August of 2019, and even then was 1.8 percentage points higher than for whites. As of July it was 8.2%, compared to 4.8% for whites. With inflation gnawing, some Fed officials have begun nipping at what to expect from the jobs recovery. Clarida, rather than seeing a full rebound of the labor force participation rate, says it can return to an unspecified “demographic trend” dragged lower by the aging population. Where Powell has talked about the plight of displaced workers, he also notes the number of additional people, perhaps 2 million or more, who retired during the pandemic – thus lengthening the time to get back to the pre-pandemic level of jobs, and increasing the likelihood the Fed may raise interest rates before that happens. Much depends on inflation. If it proves the product of global supply shocks and reopening, and recedes on its own, the potential tradeoff with the job market eases. If not, then the Fed’s priorities will be tested in ways not envisioned when the new strategy was approved. “They set a very ambitious goal. This is year one…We don’t know if it’s successful for at least a couple of years,” said Edward Al-Hussainy, senior rates and currency analyst for Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “The first priority is still the recovery in the labor market…People are starting to lose focus on that.” Nick Note: When you scrape off the bullshit its really very simple. Inflation is our of control and embedded. Fuck jobs and double fuck the stock market. The Fed will stop all stimulus operations and raise interest rates 200 to 400 bases points. And their will be another historic stock market crash when Wall Street reads the tea leaves… And we will dance a Jig…..

The highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19 now makes up an overwhelming majority of the new cases in the U.S., bringing with it a rise in cases and hospitalizations. Widespread vaccine distribution and distancing measures have helped limit the variant’s impact, but we could still see some drag on economic growth as some restrictions are reintroduced and consumers potentially become more cautious. While we may see an increase in market volatility due to the Delta variant, we believe the S&P 500 is still likely to see more gains through the end of the year. Despite the increased transmissibility of Delta and the increased health threat for those who aren’t vaccinated, our understanding of the measures needed to contain COVID-19 is in an entirely different place than it was in 2020. Above all else, we have not just one but several vaccines, which drastically reduces the risk from the variant, although it can’t completely eliminate it. We understand the effectiveness of masks in limiting transmission. Treatments have improved. We also know that the virus is not easily transmitted by touching surfaces—especially with simple good practices around handwashing—limiting the need for certain restrictions. Because of that, deaths from COVID remain near the lowest level of the pandemic despite the pick-up in cases . Much of that is due to the vaccines’ ability to limit serious cases, though health risks remain high for those who aren’t vaccinated. We are also seeing some strain on healthcare systems in regions with low vaccination rates.

COVID-19 protection from two doses of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines begins to wane within six months, new research suggests.

In a reasonable “worst-case scenario”, protection could fall to below 50% for the elderly and healthcare workers by winter, analysis from the Zoe COVID study found.

The Pfizer-BioNTech jab was 88% effective at preventing coronavirus infection a month after the second dose.

But the protection decreased to 74% after five to six months – suggesting protection fell 14 percentage points in four months.

Meanwhile, protection from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine fell to 77% just one month after the second dose. It decreased to 67% after four to five months – suggesting protection fell by 10 percentage points over three months. The vast study involved more than 1.2 million test results and participants, though the vaccines were not trialled against the now dominant Delta variant of the virus. Pfizer’s mid-term efficacy trial observed an initial 96.2% risk reduction in infection up to two months after the second dose. There was an 83.7% reduction around four months after the second dose – a 12.5 percentage point increase in risk of infection. COVID vaccines were rolled out across the UK among the older and the most vulnerable in society along with health workers first, before being given to younger age groups. So the majority of people who had their second dose five to six months ago will be older or considered vulnerable due to other health reasons – suggesting they are now likely to be at increased risk of COVID-19 compared to those vaccinated more recently.

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the Zoe COVID Study app, said: “In my opinion, a reasonable worst-case scenario could see protection below 50% for the elderly and healthcare workers by winter.

“If high levels of infection in the UK, driven by loosened social restrictions and a highly transmissible variant, this scenario could mean increased hospitalisations and deaths”. He said that we “urgently need to make plans for vaccine boosters” as well as decide if a strategy to vaccinate children is sensible if the aim is to reduce deaths and hospital admissions. Prof Spector continued: “Waning protection is to be expected and is not a reason to not get vaccinated. “Vaccines still provide high levels of protection for the majority of the population, especially against the Delta variant, so we still need as many people as possible to get fully vaccinated.” The Zoe COVID Study launched an app feature last December to enable logging of coronavirus vaccines and monitor real-world side-effects and effectiveness in its cohort of over a million users. It used data from vaccines which were recorded from 8 December 2020 to 3 July 2021, and from infections that occurred between 26 May this year when the Delta variant became dominant, and 31 July. The study’s results were slightly adjusted to give an average risk of infection reduction across the population. Researchers claim that while protection appears to decrease steadily, the individual risk may vary due to individual variation in antibody duration. Nick Note: Further proof after 6 months its like you are not vaccinated. What we new from the start and told you. Why the US is fiddelfucking around is beyond me.ROLL OUT THE 3RD JAB TO EVERYONE NOW! Its simple like the vaccies when we were kids they required booster shos. After all it is a yearly flue Jab. We are at the start of this plague. For the first 2 years i expect a jab every 6 months and then a yearly joab for us blessed enough to be privaliged… And the teaming masses will EVENTUALLY GET THEIR JAP, We are talking about 5 billion people needing to be vaccunated…..  And yes the anti vaccers can cound on geting the plague….. I am use to people eventually coming around to my point of view. As for the teaming masses the sad truth is millions have died and 100 million more will join them……. And that is not counting the billions that will suffer debilitating  damage from the plague.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street ended higher in a late-summer, light volume rally on Tuesday as the FDA’s full approval of a COVID-19 vaccine on Monday and the absence of negative catalysts kept risk appetite alive ahead of the much-anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium. All three major U.S. stock indexes advanced higher, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closing at all-time closing highs. The session marked the S&P 500’s 50th record high close so far this year. Tech and tech-adjacent megacaps were once again doing the heavy lifting, but economically sensitive cyclicals and smallcaps outperformed the broader market. “Investors are looking at the horizon at the big Jackson Hole meeting on the horizon,” Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, referring to the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium on Friday. “But for now the feel-good from yesterday’s vaccine news is still in the air.”  The Food and Drug Administration’s full approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine on Monday fueled optimism over economic recovery which spilled into Tuesday’s session. Travel and leisure sectors, associated with economic re-engagement, outperformed the broader market. The S&P 1500 Airline and Hotel/Restaurant/Leisure indexes gained up 3.7% and 1.6%, respectively. “We have energy, retail, travel, leisure, financials, and small caps all doing well today,” Detrick said. “And that’s a sign that the reopening is alive and well.”Recent economic indicators suggest the recovery from the most abrupt recession in U.S. history is headed in the right direction, but not to the extent that is likely to prompt the Fed to tighten its dovish monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to meet with other world bank leaders when the Jackson Hole Symposium convenes later this week, and his remarks will be closely parsed for any clues regarding the Fed’s tapering of asset purchases and hiking key interest rates. The event will take place virtually and not in person due to the spread of COVID-19 in the county, which has reduced expectations that any major announcement will be made at the event.

“The fact that the Fed is having a virtual (Jackson Hole) meeting tells you that they might be thinking maybe they need to keep supporting the economy,” said Detrick.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 30.55 points, or 0.09%, to 35,366.26, the S&P 500 gained 6.7 points, or 0.15%, to 4,486.23 and the Nasdaq Composite added 77.15 points, or 0.52%, to 15,019.80. Energy was the top gainer among the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, boosted by the continued rally in crude prices. [O/R] Best Buy Co Inc jumped 8.3% after the electronics retailer beat analyst earnings expectations and raised its full year sales forecast. U.S.-listed shares of China-based e-commerce platform Pinduoduo Inc surged 22.2% after reporting its first ever quarterly profit. JD.com gained 14.4% in the wake of the Chinese online retailer’s remarks on Monday that it does not expect any business impact from a wave of regulations hitting the industry at home. Other shares of Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges were bouncing back as well, with the Invesco Golden Dragon ETF jumping 8.0%. Cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks Inc advanced 18.6% as brokerages raised their price targets following its full-year forecast beat. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.17-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.82-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 28 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 96 new highs and 37 new lows.  Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.97 billion shares, compared with the 9.08 billion average over the last 20 trading days. Nick Note: the love fest continues and we got the hole comming. :The  Fed love fest…. Break out the joy jell!

DUBAI — The value of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in June increased 123% to 61.5 billion riyals ($16.4 billion) from a year earlier while non-oil exports rose by around 41%, official data showed on Tuesday.  Overall exports increased by nearly 92% in June compared to a year earlier when international trade was curbed by lockdowns and travel disruptions related to the coronavirus crisis, said the General Authority for Statistics. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, was hit hard last year as oil prices plummeted and measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic hurt its non-oil economy. But the country’s gross domestic product in the second quarter grew for the first time since the coronavirus crisis, on the back of the easing of restrictions and rebounding oil prices. China remained Saudi Arabia’s main trading partner in June, with exports there amounting to nearly 20% of total exports. Imports from Turkey continued to be low, after an informal blockade by Saudi Arabia. In June they fell to 5.7 million riyals from 21.8 in May, and from 712.4 million riyals in June last year. Nick Note: Like many people the Saudi’s made a strategic mistake. They thought the pandemic was over. Sorry no cookie. They like many people have not calculated in the coming death plunge in the global economy from the coming shut downs due to the covid19 delta and other mutations……