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US builder confidence at 13-month low in August

https://youtu.be/jyMH1K–mRE

(Reuters) -U.S. homebuilder confidence in the market for single-family homes fell in August to its lowest reading in 13 months, driven by higher construction costs and supply shortages, a report released on Tuesday showed. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index declined 5 points to a reading of 75 this month, its lowest level since July 2020, from 80 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to remain unchanged from the month prior. A reading above 50 means more builders view market conditions as favorable than poor. The index hit an all-time high of 90 in November 2020. Surging home prices and limited supply has put a lid on home sales throughout this year. Consequently, fewer U.S. consumers believe that now is a good time to purchase a home.  “Some prospective buyers are experiencing sticker shock due to higher construction costs,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “While the demographics and interest for home buying remain solid, higher costs and material access issues have resulted in lower levels of home building and even put a hold on some new home sales.” The NAHB survey’s measure of single-family home sales expectations in the next six months held steady at a reading of 81 in August, while a gauge of current sales conditions decreased 5 points to 81. The prospective buyers index fell 5 points to 60. “Many of the constraints exacerbated by Covid, including high materials prices, a limited supply of workers and limited land plots for construction, will continue dragging on homebuilder activity heading into the autumn,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “For instance, while lumber prices have come down, plenty of raw materials are still very expensive.” Nick Note: We will start to see more and more warning signs of the coming pandemic induced shut down and recession. The Fed is trapped they will have to raise rates the dreaded taper. Driven by soaring inflation. They will have to choose between maintaining the Wall Street bubble. Or stopping inflation that will destroy the consumer. Seeing how their all up for reappointment on their jobs… And the fact the Biden administration is antibussiness. its pretty obvious what the Fed will do.

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What you need to know about the coronavirus right now

(Reuters) – Here’s what you need to know about the coronavirus right now:

Sydney records deadliest day of pandemic

Australia’s biggest city Sydney recorded its deadliest day of the pandemic on Monday as troops and police set up roadblocks to limit the movement of people, while Melbourne faced a nightly curfew and a further two weeks of lockdown.

Sydney, which is in its eighth week of lockdown, is the epicentre of Australia’s third wave of COVID-19 that threatens to push the country’s A$2 trillion ($1.5 trillion) economy into its second recession in as many years.

New South Wales state Premier Gladys Berejiklian said seven people in Sydney had died from COVID-19 in the past 24 hours, surpassing the state’s previous record daily toll.

China’s new local infections fall for sixth day

New local infections in China declined for a sixth day, official data showed on Monday, as most regions got the latest outbreak under control, while others kept up vigilance by adding mass testing or delaying the reopening of schools.

China reported 13 new domestically transmitted COVID-19 cases for Sunday, its lowest daily tally since July 24, the data from the National Health Commission showed.

Hong Kong said it would upgrade 15 overseas places including the United States, Spain and France to “high risk” from “medium risk” by Aug. 20, meaning international arrivals from those countries will face lengthened quarantine.

Taiwan rejects vaccine candidate

Taiwan has rejected an emergency use application for UBI Pharma’s vaccine candidate, the government said on Monday, though the president said she would get a different domestic shot in a show of support for the drive to develop a local vaccine.

Although Taiwan has ordered millions of Moderna and AstraZeneca shots, developing a local vaccine has been a major goal and it is due next week to start administering its first domestic vaccine, made by Medigen Vaccine Biologics.

Explaining the rejection of the request for emergency use authorisation, the health ministry said the antibodies triggered by UBI’s candidate did not match up with those of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Main Cuban oxygen plant fails

Cuba’s public health minister said on Sunday that efforts were underway to restart the country’s main oxygen factory which has broken down just as a Delta-driven surge in cases and deaths swamped some provincial health services.

Minister Jose Angel Portal’s appearance on the state’s midday news broadcast came after the death toll in Cuba from COVID-19 hit 98 on Saturday, equal to the pandemic record.

Daily cases are averaging between 8,000 and 9,000 with fatalities at nearly 1% of cases, low by international standards but high for Cuba which had a death rate of 0.67% last year.

Emergency summit needed to help Africa, says UK ex-PM

British, Italian and U.S. leaders must hold an emergency summit before the U.N. General Assembly to end vaccine inequality and send more shots to Africa and other low-income nations, former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.

Brown, prime minister from 2007 to 2010, has been leading a push for richer countries to share more of the cost of vaccinating people in developing countries, many of which have low inoculation rates and rising cases.

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Delta, beef prices threaten to take the sizzle out of U.S. steakhouses

NEW YORK/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Just as American steakhouses are recovering from the first wave of COVID shutdowns, the Delta variant threatens to diminish the appetite for a sector seen as a barometer for full U.S. economic recovery. While many top steak restaurants found new customers by reinventing themselves during the crisis, the comeback of the $5 billion U.S. premium steakhouse sector – known for leather booths, white tablecloths and $60 ribeyes – depends on expense-account-wielding executives resuming fancy business events and affluent tourists flocking to Broadway theaters and other attractions. But travel and group events are again at risk as Delta infections and deaths mount. Several companies pushed back target dates for employees to return to offices. Some big in-person events, including the New York auto show, were canceled. High-end steakhouses are especially vulnerable to the spread of the virus because their traditions – such as lengthy, indoor, three-course dinners – may scare off apprehensive customers. At the same time, the price of beef is soaring, with wholesale prices 40% higher on average in July than a year ago, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That threatens steakhouses’ profit margins. Several chains say they are better prepared amid the pandemic this year since adding outdoor dining and home delivery, should the latest surge or new government restrictions scare some diners away again. Some also are expanding their bars – higher-margin liquor sales can help offset pressure from pricier beef. Ruth’s Chris Steak House parent company Ruth’s Hospitality Group Inc said in an Aug. 6 earnings call that it “recently” locked in about 10% of its beef purchases to help fend off higher costs. Data from reservation provider OpenTable showed the number of seated diners at steakhouses more than doubled by midyear compared with January, as vaccination rates rose and before the Delta variant became a huge area of concern. But sales at the “premium” steakhouses peaked in early July before falling slightly in the first week of August, according to consultant Malcolm Knapp, who tracks steakhouse data. “We won’t get the lift we had expected before the magnitude of the Delta variant came through,” said Knapp. At Peter Luger Steak House in Brooklyn, New York on Thursday, maitre d’ of 26 years Tom Hobby, 66, checked guests’ lunch reservations on a clipboard as waiters in long white aprons sailed past carrying bread baskets, sole with lemon wedges and sizzling plates of steak to al fresco diners at sidewalk tables. The iconic steakhouse only added outdoor seating and home delivery because of COVID, he said. When its bar finally reopened after the city allowed full capacity seating in mid-May, “the whole vibe changed,” Hobby said. “It wasn’t just about food. It felt like an event.” At Fleming’s, owned by Bloomin’ Brands Inc, takeout and delivery orders were rare before the pandemic. But when many of its dining rooms were shut a year ago, carryout soared to 47% of sales. Now, it’s at about 8% as customers return to restaurants, Chief Executive Officer David Deno said in a July 30 interview. Ruth’s Chris permanently closed some of its restaurants that weren’t compatible with delivery and takeout – a business that went from roughly zero pre-pandemic to as much as 7%. Ruth’s Chris Chief Executive Officer Cheryl Henry said the chain has lured new customers. “We started to see younger, more affluent guests trying Ruth’s for the first time through our takeout and delivery program,” she said in the earnings call. Henry said “it’s a little soon to tell” if holiday bookings, which in recent years have kicked into high gear in September, would be impacted by Delta. Chicago’s Gibsons Bar & Steakhouse restaurants – which are among the nation’s highest-grossing independent restaurants – and other chains like Del Frisco’s Double Eagle Steakhouse started delivering premium steaks and other meats to customers during the first wave of coronavirus – and continue to do so. The Gibsons boxes, which sell for as much as $268, boosted revenue at a time when health restrictions limited diners to delivery and carry-out. But the industry now is closely watching trends in private room bookings – where bills easily run $150 to $250 per person, boosted by expensive wine and whiskey. On a recent afternoon at Fleming’s steakhouse in Edgewater, New Jersey, with airy views of the New York skyline across the Hudson River, Cynthia and Bill Rosen were exploring the dining room as a venue for their son’s planned October wedding. The restaurant charges $55 to $125 per person depending on the menu they select. Fleming’s saw private dining drop to zero from 17% of sales pre-pandemic, but it has come back to 7% currently, Deno said. Keith Beitler, chief operating officer at Landry’s Inc , whose high-end steakhouse brands include Del Frisco’s Double Eagle and Morton’s, was cautiously optimistic as the Delta variant loomed. “If things don’t get any worse, we expect this December to be pretty much normal,” Beitler said. Nick Note: Let them enjoy their party. Restaurants will be shutting right back down again. I cannot see my self ordering a rib-eye for takes away. How would i cut it with a plastic knife or eat it on a paper plate….

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U.S. to recommend vaccine booster shots for all Americans eight months after second dose

The U.S. will reportedly recommend that COVID booster shots be administered to Americans of any age eight months after they have received their second doses, amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. Two sources told the Associated Press on Tuesday that an announcement on a recommendation for a booster shot is expected to take place this week to offer U.S. residents extra protection against COVID as the pandemic continues. Federal health officials have been looking at whether an extra shot will be needed for Americans as soon as this fall, with case numbers having risen in several states over the last month and Florida reporting record positive COVID tests and hospitalizations. Nick Note: Of course we got their first…. Thats my job as your covid  librarian. Why the sudden change by the CDC? Well reality is despite the fact they are not releasing the data… The truth is vaccinated people are getting infected, hospitalized and meeting their maker…. GET YOUR ASS YOUR 3RD BOOSTER SHOT.  And maskup, vitaminup, isloateyp, and testup everyone who comes into your airsapce indoors or out.

 

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European stocks hit one-week low on virus worries

Aug 17 (Reuters) – European stocks sank to their lowest in a week on Tuesday as a spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia and elsewhere raised fears of a slowdown in global economic growth. The pan-European STOXX 600 shed 0.5% by 0710 GMT, falling for a second straight session after the index marked its longest winning streak in over a decade. Tighter scrutiny of China’s internet sector, nationwide lockdown in New Zealand and movement restrictions in several Asian countries kept investors on edge even as European economies continued to recover from the pandemic-driven downturn. Economically sensitive cyclical sectors such as oil and gas , travel and leisure, automakers and banks led the early declines. UK-listed shares of miner BHP Group jumped 8.6% after it posted its best annual profit in nearly a decade and said it would sell its petroleum assets to Woodside Petroleum. Nick Note: The markets really want to rally. Led by the stupid money who know no fear. That is the normal state of affairs until they suffer their first wipe out. This rally has gone far beyond any reason. Its is very very very unusual for me to stand aside a market i want to short this long. But this is a very unusual market. I am waiting to see which pin bursts this balloon. Besides the coming covid19 lockdowns we also have another elephant in the room. The ticking inflation time bomb that will force the feds hand. I am sensing that the Fed is starting to hear ticking. Soon they will open the box and see the time bomb.

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Asia trades lower as Delta fears persist

[HONG KONG] Asian markets fluctuated in morning trade on Tuesday as investors weighed record gains on Wall Street against fears the resurgent Delta coronavirus variant may put the brakes on the global economic recovery. Major US indices rebounded overnight from a slow start as bargain hunters stepped up purchases – leaving both the Dow and S&P 500 finishing narrowly positive to extend a streak of record high closes for a fifth straight day. Buoyed by those gains on Wall Street, Tokyo opened up 0.5 per cent.

But Mizuho Securities warned that the market will be “weighed down by rising virus cases and geopolitical risks that are pushing the yen higher.”

Markets in China have dragged since a regulatory crackdown on private business by Beijing that has left investors on edge, with Hong Kong fluctuating through the morning session and Shanghai flat. Nick Note: To me the only issue is when the world figures out the covid-19 virus will come back over and over again in waves. And will be in constant mutations. Reality is not enough people are vaccinated and vaccines stop working after 6 months. Which means the pool of vaccinated  and vacine protected people keeps shrinking. Its the Covid treadmill to hell. Its a matter of the sophisticated   people staying on top of this… by vitamingup, maskingup, vaccinatingup and testingup. These are proven, workable, easy to do and inexpensive strategies. As far as the global economy the waves of infections and lockdowns will drive the economy back into recession. Reality is between the people who refuse vaccines and the ones who believe their is no plague and will not engage in rudimentary protections like masking up and testing their is a sufficient pool of readily infectable hosts to constantly generate mutations.  My prediction is like the yearly flu shot their will be a 6 month to 1 year booster shot needed for the covid-19 and its mutations, We will have to modify our life styles and get use to the fact we will need booster shots. Because their are so many infected people who display no symptoms we will have to test everyone who comes into our air space…. Its cheap and easy. As far as the economic ramifications…… Many industries will be forever changed like travel and leisure. We will see constant breakdowns in the supply chain as lockdowns shut down global production in waves. One place that is obvious is the automiblie supply chain. Still plagued by covid shutdown related shortage. Another example is shipping as ports are shut down and so it goes. The markets will eventually price in the fact their is no recovery and the US economy will soon slip into darkness. I believe the next employment report will bear this out….

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French shopping malls to require COVID-19 health pass

This Monday 16 August, shoppers in several departments across France now have to show their ‘health pass’ to enter shops and malls that measure more than 20,000m². There are around 126 shopping centres, including eight in Paris, where this rule will be applied. The shopping centres subject to the ‘health pass’ fall in the following departments: Alpes-Maritimes, Bouches-du-Rhône, Charente-Maritime, Corse-du-Sud, Gard, Gironde, Haute-Garonne, Haute-Savoie, Hérault, Landes, Rhône and Var. The ‘health pass’ measure was introduced by these prefectures following the increase of over 200 Covid cases per 100,000 people – a threshold set by the government for the measure to be implemented. Even though the number of cases per 100,000 is below 200 in Paris, the French capital has been subject to this rule. Paris police announced on Saturday that five department stores and three shopping centres as well as the Aéroville centre near Charles de Gaulle airport will fall under the health pass restrictions.

  • Hard-right politician champions France’s Covid health pass protests
  • Macron defends vaccination and health pass to stop France ‘closing down’

Prefectures of four departments in the Paris suburbs (Seine-Saint-Denis, Val d’Oise, Val-de-Marne and Hauts-de-Seine) also issued similar orders on Saturday. This covers 32 large stores. This comes a week after France introduced the contraversial ‘health pass’ measure to apply to restaurants, cafés and for train travel. The pass is generated using a QR code either by vaccination, a recent negative test or proof of recovery from Covid-19. Meanwhile, those protesting against the government’s measure took to the streets for the fifth consecutive weekend on Saturday. More than 200,000 people in France, including around 14,000 in Paris, took part in the demonstrations. France recorded around 21,000 new cases and 44 deaths related to Covid-19 in the past 24 hours. Nick Note: Things are getting really Ugly in Europe. And i fear the worse is yet to come.

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Pfizer requests FDA authorization of Covid vaccine booster shot for general population

  • Pfizer and BioNTech said they have submitted early-stage clinical trial data to the FDA as part of their U.S. application seeking authorization of a Covid-19 vaccine booster shot.
  • In a phase one trial, a booster dose generated “significantly higher neutralizing antibodies” against the original coronavirus strain as well as the beta and delta variants, the companies said.
  • Federal health officials aren’t recommending booster doses for the general public at this time.

Pfizer and BioNTech said Monday they have submitted early-stage clinical trial data to the Food and Drug Administration as part of their U.S. application seeking authorization of a Covid vaccine booster for everyone 16 and older — not just people with weak immune systems. In a phase one trial, a booster dose of the vaccine generated “significantly higher neutralizing antibodies” against the original coronavirus strain as well as the beta and delta variants, the companies said in a press release. Participants in the trial received a third dose of the two-dose vaccine about eight to nine months after receiving their second shot, they said. “The data we’ve seen to date suggest a third dose of our vaccine elicits antibody levels that significantly exceed those seen after the two-dose primary schedule,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a statement. “We are pleased to submit these data to the FDA as we continue working together to address the evolving challenges of this pandemic.”  The companies said late-stage trial results evaluating the third dose are expected shortly and will also be submitted to the FDA and other regulatory authorities worldwide. Nick Note: I believe the 3rd shot is a foregone conclusion. And more and more countries are administrating the 3rd vaccine to their citizens. With little or no side effects……. Pfizer is in Phase 3 studies. It looks like it will be a matter of weeks before its authorized for the general population

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Saigon then, Kabul now: Afghanistan airport evacuation compared with fall of Saigon in Vietnam War

Comparisons are being drawn between the rush to escape Kabul after the Taliban takeover and the evacuation of Saigon at the end of the Vietnam War.  There were chaotic scenes at Kabul Airport as hundreds of people attempted to flee Afghanistan. People were filmed climbing on to planes and running across the tarmac in an attempt to secure a seat on a flight out of the capital.  The scenes appeared akin to the evacuation from Saigon in 1975, when hundreds of Vietnamese and Americans flocked to the US Embassy to be airlifted out of the country when the Vietnam War ended. Watch the video above to see archival footage from 1975 compared to today’s events.

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Desperate afghans fall from sky…. better off dead

Kabul: people who tied themselves to the plane wheels – fell off the plane

Kabul is in chaos since the Taliban swept into Afghanistan’s capital on Sunday. The country’s Western-trained security forces collapsed or fled in the face of an insurgent offensive. Thousands of residents have gathered at Kabul airport trying to leave the country. As residents of Kabul try desperately to leave the capital city, some horrifying scenes were captured on camera. One such video showed Afghans who had clung on to the underbelly of a C-17 Globemaster falling from the plane on Monday.

The people are trying to leave Kabul, and Afghanistan, after insurgent group Taliban took control of the country, just weeks after launching an offensive in the wake of the withdrawal of US and Nato forces.

The video showed that Afghans, believed to be clinging on to the landing gear of C-17 transport plane, falling due to the huge G-force exerted during take-off. Nick Note: Sure looks like the fall of Saigon to me….. Only worse..