US higher in premarket ahead of output updates

Equities in the United States traded higher in the premarket on Monday as the country is to see its latest results in manufacturing and construction spending. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and its New York branch President John Williams will deliver speeches on the current state of the country’s economy. Meanwhile, former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb noted an improvement concerning the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 0.51% or 172 points higher at 4:30 am ET. At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 advanced by 0.25% and the S&P 500 went up by 0.47%. The euro gained 0.11% against the dollar, selling for $1.20334 at 4:25 am ET.

Gottlieb: US COVID-19 situation improving

Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said Sunday that he does not think there will be a “true fourth wave” of COVID-19 in the United States as vaccination rates accelerate. The United States in recent days hit 4 million vaccinations in a day, and the numbers are on their way up as supply increases. Gottlieb said the increasing vaccinations combined with the existing immunity from people who have already had the virus should be enough to stop a major new spike in cases. “I think that there’s enough immunity in the population that you’re not going to see a true fourth wave of infection,” Gottlieb said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “What we’re seeing is pockets of infection around the country, particularly in younger people who haven’t been vaccinated and also in school-age children,” he continued.

Still, the country is not out of the woods yet, as new cases per day have been ticking up, reaching about 64,000 per day in the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. As more vulnerable people get vaccinated, deaths are declining, though they are still averaging about 800 people every day.

Therefore, Gottlieb and other experts are urging people not to throw out all precautions yet. “I think we should continue to be cautious,” he noted, especially given the spread of new variants that add an element of unpredictability. He wrote on Twitter that the country needs two to three more weeks before a “vaccine inflection point” where the situation more dramatically improves. “People sense that Covid risk is receding with vaccines, and they want to reclaim normalcy,” Gottlieb wrote on Twitter. “We need to issue public health guidance in a way that recognizes people’s aspirations. While we need to remain cautious a little longer, the situation should sharply improve this spring.”

We’ve prematurely pulled back from some mitigation like masks. We’re near a vaccine inflection point, but not quite there yet. We need another 2-3 weeks. Variants and surges probably delayed a return to more normalcy, but hasn’t foreclosed that opportunity. Better days are ahead.

– Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) April 4, 2021 Nick Note: The pandemic is NOT over…. BUT it is under control. An important step for your life if you have been vaccinated. AND critical for our trade strategy as the economy is opening up faster then Wall Street realizes…

Yellen: Inflation unlikely to be an issue

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday tamped down concerns that President Joe Biden’s plans for infrastructure, jobs and families will cause inflation, saying the spending will be phased in over a decade. “It’s spread out quite evenly over eight to 10 years,” Yellen, former Federal Reserve chair, said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press.” She said the Federal Reserve will monitor inflation carefully and has the tools to address it if necessary. “I don’t believe that inflation will be an issue but if it becomes an issue, we have tools to address it. These are historic investments that we need to make our economy productive and fair.” Biden’s plans are paid for by a series of tax increases on the wealthiest Americans, less than 1% of the population, and on raising corporate taxes. Some Democrats have expressed concerns that the tax increases would slow economic growth. Yellen would not speculate on whether Biden would accept a bill from Congress that does not include a way to pay for the spending increases in his plans. “He has made clear that he believes that permanent increase in spending should be paid for and I agree,” she said. Nick Note: we are in a reflation nothing more. AND they are still pumping money at the fed with zero rates and 100 billion a month in bond buying. And treasury and the Biden administration is pushing for more stimuli called “public works” which really is little more then socialism, social engineering and the greeennnieewinnniee  global warming insanity disguised as stimulus… It will not get very far. The party will be over come mid term elections a little over a year away.  People will soon tire of all this shit as the cost of green energy hits their pocketbooks and their electric car has to constantly get towed to a charge station.

Iran says US sanctions to be lifted based on Vienna talks

  1. VIENNA (Reuters) -Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator said on Saturday Tehran expects U.S. sanctions on oil, banks and most individuals and institutions to be lifted based on agreements so far in Vienna talks, Iranian media reported, while Washington again played down the prospect of an imminent breakthrough. Russia and Western European powers meanwhile gave contrasting accounts of the task ahead in the talks to bring Iran and the United States fully back into compliance with a 2015 nuclear deal, as the talks adjourned for six days. “Sanctions … on Iran’s energy sector, which include oil and gas, or those on the automotive industry, financial, banking and port sanctions, all should be lifted based on agreements reached so far,” Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted as saying by Iranian state media. Araqchi did not say under which mechanism sanctions would be lifted or refer to how Tehran would meet Washington’s demands and return to its commitments under the deal. “We will negotiate until the two sides’ positions come closer and our demands are met,” he said. “If they are met there will be an agreement, if not there will naturally be no agreement.” Asked to comment, the U.S. State Department referred back to past statements, including remarks on Friday from the U.S. national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, who said the talks were in “an unclear place.” “We’ve seen willingness of all sides, including the Iranians, to talk seriously about sanctions relief restrictions and a pathway back into the JCPOA,” Sullivan said, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal’s title. “But it is still uncertain as to whether this will culminate in a deal in Vienna,” he said. The State Department also referred to remarks by State Department spokesman Ned Price on Thursday, when he said the sides were “not on the cusp of any breakthrough” and there was “a potentially long road ahead.” President Joe Biden is seeking to return to the deal that former President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018. Trump reimposed sanctions against Tehran and Iran responded by breaching many of the deal’s limits on its nuclear activities. Talks began last month in Vienna with the remaining parties to the deal – Iran, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany – meeting in the basement of a luxury hotel, and the United States based in another hotel across the street. Iran has refused to hold direct meetings with U.S. officials. “We have much work, and little time, left. Against that background, we would have hoped for more progress this week,” senior diplomats from the so-called E3 – France, Britain and Germany – said in a statement. Officials have said they hope to reach a deal by May 21, when an agreement between Tehran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog on continued monitoring of some Iranian nuclear activities is due to expire. “We have yet to come to an understanding on the most critical points. Success is by no means guaranteed, but not impossible,” they added. Russia’s ambassador to the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Mikhail Ulyanov, told reporters after a meeting of the remaining parties wrapping up the third round of talks that breakthroughs should not be expected in the days to come. He said the talks would reconvene on Friday. “We need simply to continue diplomatic, day-to-day work, and we have all the reasons to expect that the outcome, (the) final outcome, will be successful and it will come quite soon, in a few weeks,” said Ulyanov, one of the more optimistic voices at the talks. The break in talks was widely expected as diplomats said officials from several countries are also involved in the Group of Seven foreign ministers’ meeting in London that begins on Monday and ends on Wednesday. In his remarks, Araqchi said that “There are individuals and institutions that have been specifically sanctioned and their (the U.S.) list is long. Talks on the list are still ongoing”. He added that under what had been agreed so far, more than a majority of the list would have the sanctions lifted. Nick Note: The US is not negotiating for a Nuclear deal with Iran. Biden is negotiating for a sound bite and a stick in the eye of Trump….. Either way its a disaster. I shudder to think of a world where Iran is a nuclear power. Thats ok i have my nuclear proof bomb shelter.

Biden’s speech to Congress is a once unthinkable call for a socialist transformation

On Wednesday, Joe Biden’s first address to a joint session of Congress, on the eve of his first 100 days in office, followed the Academy Awards with a small, physically distanced gathering that, given the US president’s love of trains, might have switched to a railway station too. His 65-minute speech, the most important since his inauguration 99 days ago, could be summed up with three Bs: Big (in ambition), Boring (at times) and Bipartisan (or maybe not so much, judging by Republican grimaces). The  new age was best summed up in a single image: behind “Uncle Joe”, the 78-year-old white man at the lectern, sat two women, Vice-President Kamala Harris and the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi – both from deeply liberal California. “Madam Vice-President,” Biden said. “No President has ever said those words from this podium … and it’s about time.” Harris and Pelosi exchanged glances above their masks. That led him to Wednesday night’s once unthinkable menu of grand plans for coronavirus relief, building infrastructure and helping families, measured not in billions but trillions of dollars. In the choice between going big and going bipartisan, big is winning, remaking America with government at the centre. “My fellow Americans, trickle-down economics has never worked,” he said, effectively sounding the death knell for Ronald Reagan’s low-tax logic that has been Republican religion for four decades and within which even Bill Clinton and Barack Obama operated. “It’s time to grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out.” “The American Jobs Plan is a blue-collar blueprint to build America,” Biden said. “And it recognises something I’ve always said. [There are] good guys and women on Wall Street, but Wall Street didn’t build this country. The middle class built this country. And unions build the middle class.” He talked about green energy and corporate tax reform and described healthcare as “a right, not a privilege”. Democrats were delighted by it all, rising to their feet and clapping with such enthusiasm that it almost compensated for their diminished numbers. Republicans joined in when Biden warned of the threat posed by China (“deadly earnest on becoming the most significant, consequential nation in the world”) and struck some Trumpian notes about American products made in America. “There’s no reason the blades for wind turbines can’t be built in Pittsburgh instead of Beijing.” But they were silent, stony faced and riveted to their seats on many of the applause lines. Senator Lindsey Graham frowned, a hand to his chin. Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, clapped limply if at all. Hours earlier, perhaps seeing Harris and Pelosi in his mind’s eye, McConnell had warned: “Behind President Biden’s familiar face, it’s like the most radical Washington Democrats have been handed the keys, and they’re trying to speed as far left as they can possibly go before American voters ask for their car back.” “Boring, but radical,” was the verdict of Senator Ted Cruz who, as if to prove it, looked like he was dozing off. Nick Note: Happy May day. It was the worker bees whose hands built Americas infrastructure. But that would have not been possible without the engineers, Financiers and the managers. To discourage and worse yet disparage the innovators, investors and the private side means you have a government run system that will be full of grennie winniee fairy tails, graft and waste run by the most inept corrupt idiots on the planet. This has been tried before it does not work. Its the californication of America

 

US closes lower as virus worries trump upbeat earnings

S&P 500 falls, still on track for third straight month of gains

(Reuters) – The S&P 500 fell in early afternoon trading on Friday, after a slew of strong quarterly earnings and upbeat economic data put the benchmark index on track for a third straight month of gains. The Nasdaq is set for six consecutive months of gains, boosted by impressive results from big technology companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on course to end in the positive territory for three months in a row. Amazon.com Inc rose 1.1% after it posted record profit and signaled that consumers would keep spending in a growing U.S. economy and converts to online shopping are not likely to leave. Twitter Inc plunged 12.8% as it offered tepid revenue forecast for the second quarter, saying user growth could slow as the boost seen during the pandemic fizzles. Other high-flying stocks including Microsoft Corp, Facebook Inc, Alphabet Inc and Apple Inc fell between 0.3% and 1.5%. Even though megacap favorites posted largely upbeat earnings in the first quarter, their shares have struggled to maintain the upward trajectory they had coming into reporting season. Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were trading lower, with technology, materials and energy falling more than 1% each.

Of the 303 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far, 87.1% have topped analysts’ earnings estimates, with Refinitiv IBES data now predicting a 46.3% jump in profit growth.

Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer spending rebounded in March amid a surge in income as households received additional COVID-19 pandemic relief money from the government. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.12-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.98-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 44 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 52 new highs and 26 new lows. Nick Note: To me this was end of the month window dressing…. Many hedge funds are short and losing a lot of money. Next week we get the rest of first quarter earnings reports. AND on Friday the April monthly employment report. I belive this rally which in the NASDQ 100 will continue. we are only off 200 points from the all time record high…. Pretty impressive rally to date!

US consumer confidence rises in April

Consumer confidence in the United States improved in April, the University of Michigan said in its latest preliminary survey published on Friday. The consumer sentiment index advanced by 4% on a monthly level, topping the analysts’ expectations and reaching 88.3. Compared to April 2020, the index soared 23%. Current economic conditions climbed to 97.2, after a 4.5% increase on a monthly basis, and a 30.8% surge compared to the same month the year prior. The index of consumer expectations moved up by 3.8% compared to the previous month’s figure, to amount to 82.7, which is 18% above the level reported in the fourth month of 2020. “The April survey recorded continued gains in consumer confidence due to a growing sense that the upward momentum in jobs and incomes will persist. The renewed confidence is due to record federal stimulus spending, both recently passed and proposed, as well as the positive impact from a growing share of the population who are vaccinated,” the report elaborated. Nick Note: Blazing hot. sooner or later the wooden heads will figure out this is real and stampede into the stock market

US initial jobless claims down by 13,000 to 553,000

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 23 fell by 13,000 compared to the previous week’s revised figure to land at 553,000, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The 4-week moving average was 611,750, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week’s revised average and the lowest level since March 14, 2020. The previous week’s level was revised up by 19,000 to 566,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6% for the week ending April 17, unchanged compared to the previous week. Insured unemployment during the same week was 3,660,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. Nick Note: talk about firing on all cylinders….. zOOOM ZOOM ZOOOOOOOM

US personal spending up 4.2% in March Personal income increased 21%

Consumer spending climbs solid 4.2% in March while incomes soar 21.1%, good signs for future economic growth

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer spending climbs solid 4.2% in March while incomes soar 21.1%, good signs for future economic growth. On the other hand, real personal spending expanded by 3.6%, failing to meet market estimates.

Personal income increased $4.21 trillion (21.1%

Slightly more than the estimates suggest. Disposable personal income (DPI) grew $4.18 trillion (23.6%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) $616 billion (4.2%). “The increase in personal income in March largely reflected an increase in government social benefits. Within government social benefits, ‘other’ social benefits increased. The American Rescue Plan Act established an additional round of direct economic impact payments to households,” the report explained. Nick Note: if you are talking personal spending your talking AMAZON. Retail is dead in America bye bye mom and pop mall and high street shops. NOWAY! they can compete. Its the dawing of a new age……..

Barclays boss predicts biggest economic boom since 1948

The UK is about to experience its biggest economic boom since the aftermath of World War Two, according to Barclays boss Jes Staley. His upbeat assessment came as Barclays revealed its profits for the first three months of this year had more than doubled from a year earlier to £2.4bn. “We estimate the UK economy will grow at its fastest rate since 1948. That’s pretty spectacular,” he said. The vaccine programme and built-up savings will help to drive the rebound. Mr Staley said that a combination of the successful vaccine rollout and Barclays’ estimate of an extra £200bn sitting in customer and company bank accounts meant the UK would join the US in seeing some of the fastest economic growth in decades. The boost in Barclays’ latest profits was almost entirely driven by a more confident view on how many of its loans would be repaid. This time last year, the bank set aside more than £2bn to cover the risks that borrowers would be unable to repay all of their debts. This time round they are setting aside just £55m. Interestingly, Barclays – unlike other big banks in the UK and US – have decided not to adjust previous estimates of bad loan previsions, but hinted that they will do so in future. It will be equally interesting to watch just how much of their total £9bn kitty for future estimated debt defaults they are prepared to reconsider. Assuming the worst regarding future defaults is sometimes called “stuffing the cookie jar” – a jar that can be raided when needed to boost future earnings. All banks do this to a greater or lesser degree, But Mr Staley seems convinced that despite virus-related disasters in developing economies such as India and new lockdowns in developed counties such as Japan, the overall picture looks to be improving. He also concedes that many business sectors (like hospitality and leisure) have faced desperately challenging circumstances and it is unclear how many of the five million workers still on furlough can expect to return to full-time work. There are many business owners who will not recognise the rosy picture he paints of the UK’s economic future. It is probably wrong to talk in terms of an economic boom after we have seen the biggest economic downturn in 300 years, but Mr Staley is in tune with his US counterparts when he hopes and expects that, for him and his many business customers, the worst is behind us. Nick Note: DO not miss out on the greatest economic boom and stock market rally ever. Of course they are going to TRY and shake you out of this trade……SO