Defending US President Joe Biden’s plans to hike capital gains taxes for high-earning Americans, a senior White House official told the Financial Times (FT) on Monday, just 0.3% of people filing taxes in the US would be hit by higher levies on their investments under the plan. “There’s increasing evidence that over recent years in fact many, many of the returns at the very top are what they call above-market rates of return, rents and so on.” “Taxing the people who are doing extremely well in the economy is one way of asking somewhat more from that.” “This is consistent with what the president had said on the campaign trail, which was that we needed to fundamentally reform parts of the code that affect the very, very richest or very highest-income Americans, in ways to make sure that it is fair and not rewarding wealth overwork.” These come in response to the criticism from Wall Street and Silicon Valley, as President Biden is set to roll out a series of tax increases on the wealthy, including a near-doubling of levies on capital gains and dividends, in order to fund a new education and child care spending package that could top $1.5tn. Markets remain unnerved ahead of a big week, with a slate of US economic data on the cards alongside the Fed policy decision and eyes on Washington. The US dollar index trades in eight-week lows of 91.68, extending its third straight weekly decline into a new week. Nick Note: Blah bla blah. This is much adoo about nothing……
Nasdaq futures edge lower ahead of Big Tech earnings
(Reuters) – Futures tracking the Nasdaq 100 index dipped on Monday as big technology stocks retreated ahead of first-quarter results later this week, while investors awaited clarity on a new tax plan from President Joe Biden. High-flying firms, including Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Inc, slipped between 0.2% and 0.4% in premarket trading. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc shares edged higher as analysts expect the electric automaker to report a rise in first-quarter revenue when it reports after markets close following record deliveries for the period.
Of the 123 companies in the S&P 500 that have published results so far, 85.4% have reported earnings above analysts’ estimates, with Refinitiv IBES data now predicting a 33.9% jump in profit growth.
Investors are also looking forward to the two-day Federal Reserve meeting beginning on Tuesday and the first-quarter gross domestic product numbers later this week to gauge the pace of economic recovery. Market participants are also watching out for any fresh developments on Biden’s tax plan after reports last week said he would seek to nearly double the capital gains tax to 39.6% for wealthy individuals. Nick Note: forget the dog and pony show… Profits are booming predicted to be up close to 40%… Something that has never been seen before. everything else is noise……..
Bars and restaurants reopen as Italy eases COVID-19 restrictions, in Rome
Bars, restaurants, cinemas and concert halls will partially reopen across Italy Monday in a boost for coronavirus-hit businesses, as parliament debates the government’s 220-billion-euro ($266-billion) EU-funded recovery plan. After months of stop-start restrictions imposed to manage its second and third waves of Covid-19, Italy hopes this latest easing will mark the start of something like a normal summer. Three-quarters of regions will drop into the low-risk “yellow” categories from Monday, with bars and restaurants permitted to restart table service outside — including, for the first time in six months, in the evening, although a 10:00 pm curfew remains in place. “Finally!” said Daniele Vespa, the 26-year-old head waiter at Baccano, a restaurant near Rome’s Trevi Fountain, as he made preparations for the return of customers. “Hopefully… we can soon reopen inside as well,” he told AFP, adding: “It’s the start of a return to normality.” Cinemas, theatres and concert halls can also open at 50-percent capacity, followed by the staggered opening of swimming pools, gyms, sporting events and theme parks by July 1. Prime Minister Mario Draghi has been under intense pressure from regional governments and increasingly regular street protests to ease restrictions, as Italy battles its deepest recession since World War II. He has admitted to taking a “calculated risk”, as infection rates and intensive care admissions fall but deaths still mount at more than 300 every day to more than 119,000. The vaccination programme is gaining pace with more than 17.5 million jabs administered so far in a population of around 60 million, but there are disparities between regions. “Clearly if the gradual reopening is interpreted as a ‘free-for-all’, a new surge in infections risks compromising the summer season,” warned Nino Cartabellotta, head of the GIMBE Foundation health think tank. Italy was the first European country to be hit by the pandemic in early 2020 and remains one of the worst affected, with the EU’s highest reported death toll and one of the deepest recessions. The economy contracted by a staggering 8.9 percent last year and a million jobs have been lost. Italy is pinning its hopes on a 222.1-billion-euro investment and reform plan funded largely by the European Union. Rome is the biggest recipient of the bloc’s 750-billion-euro post-pandemic recovery fund. In parliament on Monday, Draghi will formally present the programme he hopes will boost growth by 3.6 percentage points by 2026, ahead of a Friday deadline to submit the package to Brussels. In a statement Sunday, the government said the plan was a “historic intervention” that would repair the damage caused by the pandemic and address “the structural weaknesses” of the Italian economy, while putting it on a greener footing. Priorities include infrastructure, notably high-speed railways; green energy, including hydrogen power projects; investment in internet services and digitalisation. There will be money to help women and young people, who have disproportionately lost out during the pandemic, while around 40 percent will be targeted at historically under-performing southern Italy. Draghi, a former European Central Bank chief, has also highlighted the importance of reform, and the plan sets out an “ambitious programme” focused on modernising notably public administration and the snail-paced justice system. Disputes over the spending plan brought down the previous prime minister and his coalition, after which Draghi was parachuted in to lead a national unity government in February. His broad support in parliament “gives him significant room for manoeuvre to deliver the necessary reforms”, noted Jesus Castillo, an economist at Natixis. Nick Note: what you must understand is the beach going disco crowd mungers want their “freedom” back. The politicians and law enforcement have a great big problem. they can not keep a lid on this anymore. Especially with spring fling fervor. ….. you can bank on the fact the world economy (except for the ever loving shit holes) will be opening up. Keep your eye on the money ball. And the underclass of India where never good prospects for a iPhone or a smash burger. Not even a trip to Disney world in Orlando……
Vanguard’s Davis Sees ‘Once in a Generation’ Type Opportunities in Markets
Consumption makes up about 70% of all U.S.economic activity. With savings rates near all-time highs, consumers are primed to turbo-charge the post-pandemic recovery. However, a full recovery will require more than another e-commerce spending boom. Nick Note The coming consumption boom will get the U.S. economy fully into gear. Only half of the happy checks have arrived. And with bossiness opening up jobs are plentiful. This week is very important to us. We got Fed Speak and key components of the FANG 2nd Qtr earnings come in…..
After blazing U.S. stock rally, some warn of tougher market ahead
Some of Wall Street’s biggest names are predicting a pause in a rally that has taken the S&P 500 (.SPX) to fresh records this year, leaving investors trying to determine whether to lock in some of the breathtaking gains or stay the course. Among the most recent has been Goldman Sachs, whose analysts on Wednesday said an expected second-quarter peak in U.S. growth could be tied to weaker stock returns. Morgan Stanley earlier this week warned stocks would soon face headwinds. Deutsche Bank this month called for a pullback of as much as 10% in the S&P 500 as growth decelerates, and BofA Global Research backed a year-end target for the index about 8% below current levels. A comparatively long period without a serious drop in stocks has also made some investors uneasy. The S&P 500 has declined at least 5% every 177 calendar days, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. The latest market advance has lasted 211 days without such a drop. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see some kind of pullback for no particular reason other than people start to think maybe this is a little bit ahead of itself,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.
The flurry of warnings present a conundrum for some investors. While many would like to protect profits from the market’s 85% run since last year’s pandemic low, pullbacks over the past year have been difficult to time and followed by sharp rebounds, bolstering the case for holding on and buying more when stocks dip.
The S&P’s two significant declines since March 2020 have averaged a drop of around 8%, lasting 12 days on the way down and taking 45 days to regain lost ground, according to Stovall. In both cases, the market went on to new highs weeks later, a pattern some have attributed to unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus buoying investor confidence. “Since the bear market of March of last year, buying dips has been handsomely rewarded,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab. Since the lows of the Great Financial Crisis, the index has climbed 511%, despite five drops of 10% or more and the 34% fall last March, offering investors another argument for buying and holding. Nevertheless, some are bracing for potential turbulence, reflecting concerns ranging from rising COVID-19 cases, and worries that most of the economic benefits from massive fiscal stimulus have already been priced in. On Thursday, sources said the White House will propose nearly doubling capital gains taxes for the wealthy. Stocks were on track for a decline this week but the S&P 500 is still up 10% in 2021. In options markets, the one-month moving average of open puts to open calls, a measure of sentiment, is the most bearish in about a year, indicating demand for protection against a decline in stocks. Options data also show a drop in demand for upside positioning. The S&P’s two-month call skew, an options-based measure of investors’ demand for upside, has fallen sharply since early April. “Investors are potentially seeing a lack of catalysts for another leg higher,” Susquehanna International Group’s Chris Murphy said in a recent note. Next week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, as well as a speech by U.S. President Joe Biden to Congress and earnings from companies such as Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Google-parent Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O). One worry is the comparatively rich valuation of stocks, with the S&P 500 trading at 22.3 times forward earnings estimates, compared to a historic average of 15.4 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream. “The market is expensive, so we have been looking for stocks that still seem to have upside,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. His firm sold some holdings in tech-related stocks such as Apple and Amazon Inc (AMZN.O) in recent weeks, and bought shares of Prudential Financial (PRU.N), energy company Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.N) and homebuilder Green Brick Partners (GRBK.O). Still, the market has outperformed analysts’ projections before. A Reuters poll of strategists from May 2020 forecast the S&P 500 ending the year with a marginal decline from that point. Instead, the index went on to rally about 25%. A February 2019 poll projected a 3.8% S&P 500 rise for the rest of that year, when it ended up rising some 15% more. Even with the market’s run, “you actually can find companies that are not overly expensive right now,” said Scott Schermerhorn, chief investment officer at Granite Investment Advisors. Sitting in cash, “you are going to make nothing,” he said. Nick Note: When the Wall Street pundits stop worrying i start! Among the myriad of indicators i follow is the The S&P’s two-month call skew, an options-based measure of investors’ demand for upside. I see it as a negative indicator. Their has been a significant buying downturn. Meaning the street is negative on this rally going forward. PERFECT! when those assholes whip themselves into a buying frenzy it will be another indicator that its time to take the money and run. Upside buying indicated by calls has turned down significantly.
Paul Krugman Is Pretty Upbeat About the Economy
Paul Krugman is one of the world’s most influential and provocative economists. Although Krugman made his professional mark in academia, where his work on trade and economic geography earned him a Nobel prize in 2008, it is his commentary that has brought wider public recognition. Last week, Bloomberg Opinion writer Noah Smith interviewed Krugman online about the state of the U.S economy in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. Nick Note: Typical of doctoral pompous prick liberal assholes he is pontificating from on high.He still does not understand the extreme amount of stimulus nor the fact it will create the biggest stock market rally and bubble. He is calling for even more stimulus in the (public works) ha ha ha program. Perfect this assholes has trained many of the assholes who manage trillions of dollars that over the long haul when you count their fees lose money. In a good year they may make a 7% return before fees……..
Gottlieb: US may never achieve true herd immunity to COVID
- “I don’t think we should be thinking about achieving herd immunity,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday.
- The former FDA chief said the country’s goal should instead be to “keep the level of virus down.”
- Covid hospitalizations, not just cases, need to be the focus as vaccinations are rolled out, he added.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday he believes the United States may struggle to reach “true herd immunity” to Covid, suggesting coronavirus infections will be around in the years ahead. However, the former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration stressed that new cases alone should not be the metric receiving the most focus as more people are vaccinated against Covid. “I don’t think we should be thinking about achieving herd immunity. I don’t know that we ever achieve true herd immunity, where this virus just stops circulating,” Gottlieb said on “Closing Bell.” “I think it’s always going to circulate at a low level. That should be the goal, to keep the level of virus down.” Gottlieb, who serves on the board of Covid vaccine maker Pfizer, said he expects the U.S. to see significant progress toward that goal in the coming weeks. “I think that we are going to get to a point this summer where the circulation of this virus is going to be extremely low. We’re probably going to see cases start to collapse at some point in May, pretty soon. We’re seeing it already in parts of the country,” Gottlieb said. Even so, Gottlieb said, the U.S. could level off somewhere around 5,000 to 10,000 new coronavirus cases per day this summer, partly due to how commonplace Covid testing has become. “We’ll pick up a lot of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infection,” he said. “I think the bottom line is that the vulnerability of the American population is being dramatically reduced as a result of vaccination, and that’s really what we need to focus on,” said Gottlieb, who led the FDA from 2017 to 2019 in the Trump administration. “We shouldn’t focus just on cases alone. There will be cases, but we should focus on how many people are being hospitalized and getting sick from this virus, and that’s going to dramatically decline as we roll out the vaccines,” he said. Public health experts have stressed throughout the pandemic that as more people in a population have immunity protection for a particular virus, the less readily it will spread. However, while vaccines have been shown to reduce transmission, Gottlieb is not the first to suggest reaching durable herd immunity for Covid is likely to be challenging. White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has estimated that 75% to 85% of the population being vaccinated against Covid would create an “umbrella” of immunity. “That would be able to protect even the vulnerables who have not been vaccinated or those in which the vaccine has not been effective,” he told CNBC in December shortly after the FDA granted Pfizer’s vaccine emergency use authorization.
Roughly 41% of the U.S. population has now received at least one Covid vaccine dose and 27.5% is fully vaccinated, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than 220 million total doses have been administered, CDC data shows.
Gottlieb has previously said the U.S. could, in theory, get to a point where Covid is eradicated like other diseases such as polio and smallpox. “It’s possible. We don’t seem to be prepared to do it and take the collective action that it’s going to require,” he told CNBC on April 16. “It will require people exercising some civic virtue to get vaccinated even if they individually feel they’re at low risk of the infection,” he said. “Because even if they’re personally low risk they can still get and transmit the infection, and you can’t eradicate a disease where you have a significant contingent of people who are going to continue to catch it and transmit it.” Nick Note: the war against the covid virus is the greatest vaccination campaign in human history. And its working. Like all battles in a war humans have to ramp up. Of course the vaccines roll out has been slow with fits and starts. Reality is it takes time to supply vaccines, train people and convince the public. Among the first words my kids learned was no. Thats because doing nothing is the easiest thing to do. I am sure you see this phenomenon in the people around you. Its a habit they never lose. That’s why they invented the beach. My definition of a beach is A place where people go to lay down and do nothing, surrounded by other people doing nothing and all pretending to be doing something while nearly naked.
Syrian Iranian made LONG range Rocket Fired deep into Israel
A Syrian missile exploded in southern Israel on Thursday, the Israeli military said, in an incident that triggered warning sirens near the secretive Dimona nuclear reactor and an Israeli strike in Syria. An Israeli military spokesman identified the projectile as an SA-5 surface-to-air missile
(The S-200 SA-5 GAMMON is a medium to high -altitude surface-to-air missile system. The single-stage missile has four jettisonable, wraparound solid propellant boosters, each of which is is 4.9 m long and 0.48 m in diameter with a single fin spanning 0.35 m from the booster body. The missile is 10.72 m long overall with a wing span of 2.85 m. The main body is 0.85 m in diameter and has a solid fuel dual thrust sustainer rocket motor. The missile’s minimum range of 60 km is due to the booster burn time and jettison requirements, limiting the system to engagements against relatively large unmanoeuvrable targets at ranges up to 250 km. The large HE warhead is detonated either by a command signal or the onboard proximity fusing system. When fitted with a nuclear warhead only the command detonation option is used.)
fired by Syrian forces against Israeli aircraft. He said it overflew its target to reach the Dimona area, 200 km (125 miles) south of the Syrian border. The missile did not hit the reactor, exploding some 30 km (19 miles) away, the spokesman added. The sirens that sounded overnight in the Dimona area followed weeks of heightened tension between Israel and Iran, a close ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, amid renewed global negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme. For weeks, Israeli media have said air defences around the Dimona reactor and the Red Sea port of Eilat were being strengthened in anticipation of a possible long-range missile or drone attack by Iranian-backed forces. In public remarks on Thursday’s incident, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz said the anti-aircraft missile was fired from Syria during an Israeli strike there against “assets that could be used for a potential attack against Israel”.
Gantz said Israel’s anti-missile systems had attempted to intercept the SA-5 but were unsuccessful.
“In most cases, we achieve other results. This is a slightly more complex case. We will investigate it and move on,” he said. Israeli security sources said the missile exploded in mid-air. Nick Note: this missile is not the bottle rockets routinely fired by Hams at Israel from Gazza. Those tube rockets are made from seamless pipe and a school boy could whip one up in his garage. This suffocated guided missile of Russian design is a horse of a different color. It was fired from the town of Dumayr Syria the location of weapons depots belonging to Iran-backed militias fighting alongside the Syrian military and transversed 125 of Israel airspace from north to south flying over several banks of Israeli air defenses that failed to detect it until it was to late. And when engaged by the Iron Dome (Dum Dum) (Where was the Arrow system?) anti missile system (i would ask for a refund) was not hit. The cover story is this was a stray missile fired at an Israeli fighter jet. It looks to me like a test for what will be guided missiles raining down from Syria and Lebanon on cities across Israel. I can tell you the arsenal of sophisticated missiles supplied by Iran to Israel’s enemies in the north number well over 3000. By law every house, apartment building, office and mall must have hardened bomb shelters. Israel has an extensive incoming missile warning system in every city town and village. On another note: the missiles are capable beside carrying traditional warheads can be set up to carry chemical, germ and NUCLEAR war heads… Uranium enriched over 50% is a hop skip and jump away form nuclear grade. At the level of enrichment Iran has achieved their are no technical hurdles standing in the way of Iran building nukes.
Israel hits Hamas targets in response to rocket attacks
https://youtu.be/GjgvMXs2Dug
Israel has carried out strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, after a rocket attack on a house injured seven Israelis.The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the office of Hamas’s political leader and the group’s military intelligence headquarters were among the targets. Gaza’s health ministry said seven Palestinians were injured. Militants later launched a barrage of rockets towards southern Israeli towns despite reports of a ceasefire, triggering further Israeli strikes. So far no Palestinian militant group has said it fired the long-range rocket that hit the house in Mishmeret, north of Tel Aviv, on Monday morning. The Israeli military blamed Hamas, but one unnamed official from the group said it had “no interest” in doing so. The escalation follows months of tensions at the boundary fence between Gaza and Israel, and two weeks before Israel holds a general election. Israeli media report that the Israeli side of the border has been quiet since 03:15 (01:15 GMT), and that the last Israeli strike on Gaza took place at about 04:30. Overnight, Palestinian militants in Gaza fired more than 60 rockets and mortars towards Israel, according to the IDF. About 30 of the projectiles were launched after Hamas said it had accepted an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire agreement that would start at 22:00. No injuries were reported in Israel, but a home in the town of Sderot was hit by a rocket that did not explode. The IDF said, in response to the rocket fire, fighter jets and helicopters struck 15 targets in Gaza, including a Hamas military compound in the central town of Deir al-Balah. Gaza’s health ministry did not report any casualties as a result of those strikes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would immediately go to the IDF’s headquarters when he returned from a curtailed trip to the US on Tuesday. “We’ll deal with these issues,” he said. “We gave a very powerful response. Hamas needs to know that we won’t hesitate to go in [to Gaza] and take any required steps.” Meanwhile, Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan told Israeli Army Radio that “rumours of a ceasefire are incorrect”. The BBC’s Yolande Knell in Jerusalem says Mr Netanyahu may want to avoid an unpredictable escalation before a closely-fought general election, but he is under intense pressure to show he is taking decisive action against Hamas. The Israeli ambulance service treated two women who were moderately wounded and five other people, including an infant, a three-year-old boy and a 12-year-old girl, who had minor wounds. The house belonged to Robert and Susan Wolf, two British-Israeli dual nationals, who had been at home with their son, daughter-in-law and grandchildren. It was the furthest a rocket has reached in Israel since the 2014 conflict in Gaza. An IDF spokeswoman said Hamas – which has fought three wars with Israel since 2008 and is designated a terrorist group by Israel, the US, EU and UK – had manufactured the rocket and was to blame for its launch.The IDF said it had struck dozens of Hamas targets across Gaza on Monday evening – a response that Mr Netanyahu described as “very powerful”. The targets included the office of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya in Gaza City’s Rimal district. There was no indication that Mr Haniya was inside at the time. The IDF also said it had bombed a five-storey building in Gaza City housing the offices of Hamas’ Internal Security Service, and a three-storey building in the eastern Sabra district that was the “secret headquarters” of Hamas’s General Security Forces, as well as its General Intelligence and Military Intelligence agencies. The official Palestinian news agency, Wafa, reported that two Palestinians were injured when jets fired missiles at a commercial building in central Gaza City, and that one other person was hurt in a strike in the eastern Shujaiya district. A Hamas website, The Palestinian Information Center, said blocks of flats, civilian facilities, agricultural land and “resistance sites” had been targeted. Nick Note: This bears watching for now.
US businesses are growing faster than ever as the economy reawakens
- IHS Markit’s gauges of the US service and manufacturing sectors climbed to record highs in April.
- The indexes were boosted by the relaxing of lockdown measures and robust consumer demand.
- Still, supply chain disruptions weighed on factories and lifted manufacturing costs.
The US economy’s March rebound may have only been a warm-up. Two popular gauges of business activity swung even higher in preliminary April readings, according to analytics firm IHS Markit. The services activity index leaped to 63.1 from 60.4, indicating the fastest level of expansion since data collection began in 2009. The firm’s manufacturing index rose to 60.6 from 59.1, also a record. Markit’s composite index soared to an all-time high of 62.2 from 59.7. Readings above 50 indicate sector growth, while those below the threshold signal contraction. The broad improvements were largely driven by the loosening of economic restrictions and strong demand from consumers, Markit said in the Friday report. Continued vaccination also contributed to stronger activity at service businesses. Manufacturers were able to accelerate production despite lingering supply-chain problems. “The worsening supply situation is a concern for the outlook, especially in relation to prices,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said in a statement, adding that factories “appear to be struggling to boost operating capacity” amid a swelling backlog of orders. The surge in activity and supply-chain pressures led input costs to climb at the fastest rate since 2008, according to Markit. Still, factories reported “markedly upbeat” expectations for the year ahead on hopes that an end to the pandemic and robust demand would drive further expansion. Services reported similarly optimistic outlooks, according to the report. Businesses cited the easing of COVID-19 lockdowns as critical to boosting confidence. Markit’s report signals strong momentum seen throughout March will continue through spring. Indicators tracking the labor market, consumer spending, and sentiment all shot higher last month as the first moves toward a full reopening revived economic activity. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly characterized trends seen throughout March as marking an “inflection point” in the US recovery. Still, supply strains hitting the manufacturing sector point to emerging risks. While the rate of private-sector inflation eased from March’s pace, it still registered the second-fastest climb on record. Many businesses surveyed by Markit passed on the costs to their clients and consumers, according to the report. The Fed has signaled that it will wait until inflation steadily trends above 2% before reining in its ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Yet with firms struggling to meet demand and supply chain disruptions lingering, inflation could outpace the central bank’s outlook and place new pressure on the country just as it enters a new normal.