Fed’s Beige Book highlights growing optimism and accelerating prices

  • National economic activity accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April. Consumer spending strengthened
  • Employment growth picked up over the reporting period, with most Districts noting modest to moderate increases in headcounts.
  • Consumer spending strengthened
  • Reports on tourism were more upbeat
  • Auto sales grew, even as new-vehicle inventories remained constrained by microchip shortages
  • The picture in nonfinancial services generally improved
  • Despite widespread supply chain disruptions, manufacturing activity expanded further with half the Districts citing robust growth
  • Outlooks were more optimistic than in the previous report, boosted in part by an acceleration in COVID-19 vaccinations
Prices accelerated slightly since the last report, with many Districts reporting moderate price increases and some saying prices rose more robustly. Input costs rose across the board, but especially in the manufacturing, construction, retail, and transportation sectors-specifically, metals, lumber, food, and fuel prices. Cost increases were partly attributed to ongoing supply chain disruptions, temporarily exacerbated in some cases by winter weather events. There were widespread reports of increased selling prices also, but typically not on pace with rising costs. Contacts generally expect continued price increases in the near term. In the smaller breakdowns, you have the Boston Fed noting that “several contacts expressed growing concerns about inflation.” Expect to see more of that in the coming months. The Cleveland Fed was more constructive:
Contacts generally expected cost pressures to persist in the near term, with one suggesting that “the imbalances causing costs to rise are not likely to be resolved quickly.” However, many expect supply chain challenges to dissipate later in the year, and this will ease cost and price pressures. Ultimately, it comes down to pricing power, something the Atlanta Fed touched on: Reports on pricing power were mixed. Industries with strong demand have managed to pass through most input cost increases, while others plan to implement price increases over the coming year as activity returns The KC Fed also said this: Among firms experiencing price pressures, more than half indicated that they were able to pass a majority or all of their cost increases through to customers.

Coinbase soars 53% on Nasdaq debut, reaches $100.4B valuation

Coinbase Inc. started trading at $384.45 per share on the Nasdaq on Wednesday, reaching the market capitalization of around $100.4 billion. It is trading under the ticker COIN. Coinbase, which decided to sidestep the initial public offering (IPO) and opt for a direct listing, surged 53.6% from its reference price of $250. The world’s two most well-known cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, climbed to their new all-time highs the day before. Coinbase continued to rise, going for $420.34 at 1:33 pm ET, up 9.33% compared to the opening figure. The shares rocketed to $429.26 a minute later, before paring the spike. Nick Note: this valuation is ridiculous….. Goldman IS valued the same. But this proves that insanity is the order of the day. And their is plenty of money out their to fuel this stock market insanity…..

Bernie Madoff dies in prison aged 82

Bernard Madoff, the mastermind behind the worst financial scam in history, has died in prison at the aged of 82, US media reported Tuesday. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison in 2009 for running a pyramid-style scheme that defrauded tens of thousands of people around the world. The scheme was estimated to be worth anywhere between $25 billion and $63 billion. For decades, Madoff enjoyed an image as a self-made financial guru whose Midas touch defied market fluctuations. A former chairman of the Nasdaq stock market, he attracted a devoted legion of investment clients – from Florida retirees to celebrities such as famed film director Steven Spielberg, actor Kevin Bacon and Hall of Fame pitcher Sandy Koufax. But his investment advisory business was exposed in 2008 as a multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme that wiped out people’s fortunes and ruined charities and foundations. He became so hated he had to wear a bulletproof vest to court. Madoff pleaded guilty in March 2009 to securities fraud and other charges, saying he was “deeply sorry and ashamed”. “He stole from the rich. He stole from the poor. He stole from the in between. He had no values,” former investor Tom Fitzmaurice told the judge at the sentencing. “He cheated his victims out of their money so he and his wife (…) could live a life of luxury beyond belief.” US District Judge Denny Chin showed no mercy, sentencing Madoff to the maximum 150 years in prison. “Here, the message must be sent that Mr. Madoff’s crimes were extraordinarily evil and that this kind of irresponsible manipulation of the system is not merely a bloodless financial crime that takes place just on paper, but it is instead (…) one that takes a staggering human toll,” Chin said. Madoff was born in 1938 in a lower-middle-class Jewish neighbourhood in Queens. In the financial world, the story of his rise to prominence – how he left for Wall Street with his brother Peter in 1960 with a few thousand dollars saved from working as a lifeguard and installing sprinklers – became legend. In the 1980s, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities occupied three floors of a midtown Manhattan high-rise. There, with his brother and later two sons, he ran a legitimate business as middlemen between the buyers and sellers of stock. Madoff raised his profile by using the expertise to help launch Nasdaq, the first electronic stock exchange, and became so respected that he advised the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the system. But what the SEC never found out was that behind the scenes, in a separate office kept under lock and key, Madoff was secretly spinning a web of phantom wealth by using cash from new investors to pay returns to old ones. Authorities say that over the years, at least $13 billion was invested with Madoff. An old IBM computer cranked out monthly statements showing steady double-digit returns, even during market downturns. As of late 2008, the statements claimed investor accounts totaled $65 billion. The ugly truth: No securities were ever bought or sold. Madoff’s chief financial officer, Frank DiPascali, said in a guilty plea in 2009 that the statements detailing trades were “all fake”. The massive fraud brought fresh meaning to “Ponzi scheme,” named after Charles Ponzi, who was convicted of mail fraud after bilking thousands of people out of a mere $10 million between 1919 and 1920.

Goldman Sachs Group reported record first-quarter results that showed investment banking and trading revenue beating estimates across the board

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported on Wednesday that its net revenues totaled $17.7 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, soaring 102% in comparison to the same timespan during the previous year. Net earnings amounted to $6.84 billion in the three months ending with March 31, 2021, skyrocketing 464% from the same trimester last year. The company’s diluted earnings per common share stood at $18.60, up almost sixfold compared to the first quarter of 2020 while operating expenses jumped 46% year-on-year to $9.44 billion. “Our businesses remain very well positioned to help our clients reposition for the recovery, and that strength is reflected in the record revenues and earnings achieved this quarter,” Chairman and CEO David Solomon noted in a statement. Goldman Sachs’s shares increased by 1.85% in premarket trade following the release of the report. Nick Note: So be good boys and girls and let the bankers make you money hand over fist…… Ride Em Cowboys!

JPMorgan Q1 net income surges 400% YoY to 14.3B

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Wednesday that first-quarter profit nearly quintupled, after the bank released $5.2 billion it had set aside to cover soured loans. The bank posted a profit of $14.3 billion, or $4.50 per share, well above the $3.10 per share forecast by analysts polled by FactSet. A year earlier, JPMorgan reported a quarterly profit of $2.87 billion, or $0.78 a share. At that time, the coronavirus pandemic was just taking hold in the U.S., and JPMorgan and other big banks set aside billions of dollars to prepare for a potential flood of bad loans. In the first quarter, the reserve release gave earnings a meaningful boost. The bank released $2.9 billion in the fourth quarter. The nation’s largest bank also reported revenue of $32.27 billion, up 14% from a year earlier. Revenue beat the $30.5 billion predicted by analysts. The rainy-day funds ate into quarterly profits for much of 2020, when banks were concerned that struggling businesses and consumers would start to miss loan payments. But many of those losses never materialized, and now banks are poised to cash in on their diligence. The U.S. economy’s rebound has surpassed banks’ internal forecasts, convincing large financial institutions including JPMorgan to begin removing some of the safeguards erected during 2020 to prevent major losses. Banks believe the trillions of dollars in government stimulus coursing through the economy, coupled with accelerating vaccine distribution, have insulated consumers and businesses from the pandemic’s worst-case financial scenarios. JPMorgan Chief Executive James Dimon believes the economy is primed for a “Goldilocks moment” of fast growth and inflation and interest rates that move slowly upward, he said in his annual letter to shareholders last week. The bank’s stock price reflects that shift. Shares of JPMorgan have risen more than 21% since the beginning of the year. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks shares of the largest lenders, is up close to 25% this year, compared with 10% for the S&P 500. Nick Note: Always remember the Fed is a creature of the mega banks. With the Fed Stepping on ZERO it means the yield curve is steepening and banks do the yield curve tango. Even a fucking idiot inbred silver spoon banker can make money in this… They borrow for near zero and lend out over 3%. In banking its the rule of three. 3% spread on you loans, Out of the office by 3PM, 3 lines of cocaine (supplied by the drug dealers they launder their money by the billion) several times a day and 3 whores (male and female)  for the orgy…… SO this tells me with bank profits up 25% and the S&P500 up 10% this market still has room to run.

Basking in the Coinbase IPO glow, all-time highs litter the boards

It’s a sea of green today as the Good Ship Cryptocurrency sails on the crest of a wave of all-time highs. It’s Cheech and Chong time for the crypto markets. The fuse has been lit and we are at the show. Where will it go? Nobody knows. With Coinbase’s direct listing on Nasdaq kicking off today, almost every coin under the sun is bathing in the warm glow of the notorious ‘Coinbase effect’ – the price bump a coin experiences when it first gets added to the leading US exchange. Bitcoin is back in uncharted territory, soaring to almost $65,000 this morning. It’s now been trading hands at more than $60,000 for four days in a row and looks to be establishing that level as support. It’s up more than six per cent over the last 24 hours and 11 per cent in the last week. Is there still more to come from the leading cryptocurrency? There are gains across the board today, though. Bitcoin’s market dominance has actually slipped to 54% despite its recent rise as other coins also show strength, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation now sitting above $2.2 trillion. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH) has also set a new all-time high of almost $2,400. Can it hit $2,500 today, having only just established itself over the important psychological level of $2,000 at the weekend? It’s now the 36th largest asset in the world, outstripping the likes of Netflix and Adobe. It wasn’t even in the top 100 at the turn of the year. Perhaps an even bigger question for Ethereum at the moment though is whether it can hold that second spot. Binance’s BNB and XRP continue to see massive gains, rising to $600 and $2 respectively. Even Cardano (ADA) has come storming back into the mix after a quiet couple of months, up 20% over the last 24 hours and currently changing hands at an all-time high of $1.53. Are they now truly ready to give ETH a real run for its money? Nick Note: Its a rare trade for us where we buy into a rally. The reason is not everyone has bought in yet. When they do our intent is to sell them some. This is not a simple Getty up and go trade. I need to see plenty of cash on the sides lines and a LOT of skepticism which i do see. This coinbase IPO along with some screaming erasings for the banks tells me to let our bet ride…. for now!

Iran to begin 60% uranium enrichment

https://youtu.be/kOl5y14bvg8

DUBAI (Reuters) – Iran’s move to enrich uranium up to 60% purity is a response to the sabotage at its key nuclear facility, President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday, adding the Islamic Republic had no intention of building a nuclear weapon. After an explosion at its Natanz uranium enrichment site on Sunday blamed by Tehran on arch-foe Israel, Iran said it would begin enriching uranium at 60%, a move bringing the fissile material closer to levels suitable for a bomb. It also said it would activate 1,000 advanced centrifuge machines at the site. “Of course, the security and intelligence officials must give the final reports, but apparently it is the crime of the Zionists, and if the Zionists act against our nation, we will answer it,” Rouhani said in a televised cabinet meeting. “Our response to their malice is replacing the damaged centrifuges with more advanced ones and ramping up the enrichment to 60% at the Natanz facility.” Iranian authorities have described the incident as an act of “nuclear terrorism”. Israel, which the Islamic Republic does not recognise, has not formally commented on the matter. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said on Tuesday it had been informed of Iran’s decision.

Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six powers, which it has been breaching since the United States withdrew in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran, caps the fissile purity to which Tehran can refine uranium at 3.67%.

That is well under the 20% achieved before the agreement and far below the 90% suitable for a nuclear weapon. In an apparent bid to heap pressure on U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration that is willing to revive the accord, Iran in recent months has raised enrichment to 20% purity, a level where uranium is considered to be highly enriched. Rouhani, echoing Iran’s stance for decades, said Tehran had no intention to obtain or develop nuclear weapons. France said on Tuesday it was coordinating a response with world powers, including the United States, after Iran said it would begin enriching uranium at 60%. Washington called Iran’s announcement “provocative” and said the U.S. administration was concerned, adding that it called into question Tehran’s seriousness on nuclear talks. Last week, Iran and the global powers held what they described as “constructive” talks to salvage the 2015 accord. The talks will resume on Thursday in Vienna to discuss the sanctions Washington might lift and the nuclear curbs Tehran might observe. “They (Israel) want our hands to be empty in the negotiations, but we will be in the negotiations with a stronger hand,” Rouhani said. Nick Note: Its all about your knowledge. So allow me to increase your knowledge. The really hard part is enriching Uranium to 20%. Once enriched to over 50% its a hop skip and jump to 100% enrichment for a nuke. And their is no use for uranium enriched over 20% except for a bomb. Iran is obviously moving towards nuclear weapons. Breakout to where they have enough material for 10 nukes is less then a year away…….

China’s trade surplus at $115.9B in Qt1 exports surge 38.7% YoY,

China’s trade surplus in the first quarter of 2021 came in at CNY759.29 billion (USD115.99 billion), the latest data from the Customs showed on Tuesday.

China Q1 yuan-denominated exports +38.7% YoY.

China Q1 yuan-denominated imports +19.3% YoY.

China Q1 total trade with the united states +61.3% in yuan term.

China’s foreign trade has been recovering and growing.

China’s exports rose sharply in March while imports growth surged to the highest in four years, in yet another boost to the nation’s economic recovery. It signalled improving global demand amid progress in worldwide COVID-19 vaccination. Ciara Lee reports

China’s exports rose sharply in March while import growth surged to the highest in four years. It’s another boost to the nation’s economic recovery.

And signals improving global demand as worldwide vaccinations pick up speed.

The data suggests the world’s second largest economy will continue to gather momentum. Nick Note: Lets be clear here. The factory of the world is opening up. Shipping the shit out of goods and Exports are soaring. What does that tell you? Why it means business is gearing up for a massive recovery. Please note these are not year over year comparisons. but 4 years highs……… The profits will soon be flowing to the bottom line. As a foot note it caught business ha ha ha economists and algo assholes flat footed.. They never saw this coming and that is why they are having to rush to catch up on the inventories they let run down. The $1.00 chip shortage is just a small example of how bad they fucked up……… Party On!

Iran blames Israel for Natanz nuclear plant outage, vows revenge

DUBAI (Reuters) -Iran on Monday accused arch-foe Israel of sabotaging its key Natanz nuclear site and vowed revenge for an attack that appeared to be latest episode in a long-running covert war. Iran’s semi-official Nournews website said the person who caused an electricity outage in one of the production halls at the underground uranium enrichment plant had been identified. “Necessary measures are being taken to arrest this person,” the website reported, without giving details about the person. The incident occurred amid diplomatic efforts by Iran and the United States to revive Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with major powers, an accord Israel fiercely opposed, after former U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned it three years ago. Last week, Iran and the global powers held what they described as “constructive” talks to salvage the deal, which has unravelled as Iran has breached its limits on sensitive uranium enrichment since Trump reimposed harsh sanctions on Tehran.

Iranian authorities described the incident a day earlier as an act of “nuclear terrorism” and said Tehran reserved the right to take action against the perpetrators.

On Monday, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif explicitly blamed Israel. “The Zionists want to take revenge because of our progress in the way to lift sanctions… We will not fall into their trap…We will not allow this act of sabotage to affect the nuclear talks,” Zarif was quoted by state TV as saying. “But we will take our revenge against the Zionists.” Multiple Israeli media outlets have quoted unnamed intelligence sources as saying the country’s Mossad spy service carried out a successful sabotage operation at the underground Natanz complex, potentially setting back enrichment work there by months. Israel has not formally commented on the incident. Iranian nuclear energy chief Ali Akbar Salehi said an emergency power system had been activated at Natanz to offset the outage. “Enrichment of uranium has not stopped in the site.” The incident took place a day after Tehran, which has insisted it wants only peaceful nuclear energy not nuclear bombs from the enrichment process, launched new advanced centrifuge machines at Natanz. “All of the centrifuges that went out of circuit at Natanz site were of the IR-1 type,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a news conference, referring to Iran’s first generation of enrichment machines more vulnerable to outages. “Our nuclear experts are assessing the damage but I can assure you that Iran will replace damaged uranium enrichment centrifuges in Natanz with advanced ones.” Modernised centrifuges can refine uranium to higher fissile purity at a much faster rate, helping accumulate a stockpile that could shorten Iran’s route to a nuclear weapon, if it chose to develop them, than the IR-1 that still predominates in Natanz’s production halls. The 2015 deal only allows Iran to enrich with up to 5,060 IR-1 machines, in a plant designed to house around 50,000, but it has begun enriching at Natanz with hundreds of advanced centrifuges including the IR-2m. Despite strong Israeli opposition, U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration is committed to rejoining the deal if the Islamic Republic returns to full compliance with restrictions on nuclear fuel production. Khatibzadeh said nuclear talks would resume on Wednesday in Vienna. Diplomatic headway has been made, delegates said on Friday. Iran insists all U.S. sanctions crippling its oil-based economy must be lifted first before it stops accelerating enrichment and restores caps on the process. At a ceremony on Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made no direct reference to Natanz, though said: “The fight against Iran’s nuclearisation…is a massive task.” There have been sporadic episodes of sabotage and outages at Iranian nuclear installations for over a decade, for which Tehran has blamed Israel, which regards the Iranian uranium enrichment drive as a menace to its existence. In 2010, the Stuxnet computer virus, widely believed to have been developed by the United States and Israel, was discovered after it was used to attack Natanz, causing damaging breakdowns of centrifuge cascades that refine uranium. In July last year, a fire broke out at Natanz that Iran said was an attempt by Israel to sabotage its enrichment activity. Iran also accused Israel of responsibility for last November’s ambush killing outside Tehran of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was regarded by Western intelligence services as the mastermind of a covert Iranian nuclear weapons programme. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement.  Nick Note: Make no mistake about it… Iran is a mortal threat to mankind weather you or OLE Joe realize it. I’ll tell you who knows this and that is Israel. One of the worlds 5 nuclear super powers. This tiny piss ant country of 8 million people has a total land mass of  8 thousand square miles including disputed territories under its control.. Its 263 miles long and 71 miles wide.  So you could see why they are  a desperate lot. Surrounded by enemies that have sworn a oath to destroy her.  Israel with land based ICBM Surface launch MERV missiles, Ocean surface launch nukes and a sub based Nuclear arsenal  augmented with the worlds only space based nukes has the capacity to destroy the world 3 times over… Yes you read it right. AND AND AND they will not hesitate to do it if they are faced with their destruction. So its 8 million desperate Jew the smartest people on earth against 1.5 Billion Islamist that have sworn her destruction. Its not a fair fight I feel sorry for Islam. And do not be so sure that the US nuclear football launch system and the Russian NOVA brief case have not been hacked….

Powell: Economy likely to grow much more quickly

The U.S. economy is ready to take off, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Sunday. In an interview with CBS News’ “60 Minutes,” which released a snippet Sunday morning, Powell said increased growth should create more jobs. The full interview will air Sunday night at 7 p.m. Eastern on CBS. “What we’re seeing now is really an economy that seems to be at an inflection point,” Powell said in the interview. “We feel like we’re at a place where the economy’s about to start growing much more quickly and job creation coming in much more quickly.” Powell credited widespread vaccinations and strong fiscal-policy support through the pandemic, but warned that the economy could suffer a setback if there’s another wave of COVID-19 infections. “It’s going to be smart if people can continue to socially distance and wear masks,” he said.