NOT OVER YET Covid ‘super mutation’ may cause ‘devastating’ new outbreak & beat vaccines if we leave lockdown too soon, experts warn

COVID could mutate into a new super variant which could beat vaccines, make people sicker and reinfect victims in a devastating new outbreak, leading experts have warned.

COVID could mutate into a new super variant which could beat vaccines, make people sicker and reinfect victims in a devastating new outbreak, leading experts have warned. Scientists told The Sun Online about the need to vaccinate as many people as possible and stick to the lockdown rules as it is feared the rapidly changing virus could overwhelm our current arsenal of vaccines. The experts hammered home the need to rob Covid of the rapid person-to-person transmission which helps it develop mutations.  And they warned possible new variants in the future could make people sicker and re-infect people who had already developed antibodies in a “very, very scary” new outbreak. It comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson pleaded with Brits to stick to the rules as we go into the long weekend for Easter so the UK can keep to its plan to unlock totally by June. Hot weather earlier this week already saw thronging parks and beaches amid fears it could trigger a new wave despite months of lockdown pain finally leading to plunge cases. Covid variants and mutations have been popping up around the world – with various tweaks appearing to make it more transmissible.  Fears have loomed for months that a mutant Covid variant could become significantly more deadly. Meanwhile, scientists in India claimed they have identified a new variant that carries two mutations.  And variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil contain the E484K mutation, which is thought to be make the bug evade vaccines.

Studies so far have shown the Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs do work against current known variants. It comes amid fears the E484K mutation could make them slightly less effective. The latest results from Pfizer show the vaccine does protect against the South African strain, raising hopes the same will be true for the Brazil variant.

The best ways to avoid this are to vaccinate as many as we can – and reduce transmission – and to stay in lockdown until as many as we can are vaccinated

Dr Tony Lockett

Dr Tony Lockett, from King’s College London’s Institute of Pharmaceutical Science, told The Sun Online about the prospect of a devastating new mutation – and urged Brits to stick to the rules. He said: “The effect – well it could be devastating – much worse than the original as younger people could become sicker and those who have had the virus get reinfected with the new strain “Its really very scary.” It comes as it was warned coronavirus mutations could render vaccines redundant in less than one year, according to a survey of epidemiologists by The People’s Vaccine Alliance. Dr Lockett explained some mutations arise when the virus infects people who cannot beat it with their immune system. The expert added: “Uncontrolled proliferation leads to the virus replicating more actively and hence mutation is more likely.  “Patients with poor immune systems are therefore are a possible source of mutations.” He went on: “The causes of mutations are therefore allowing vulnerable subjects to get exposed.  “The best ways to avoid this are to vaccinate as many as we can – and reduce transmission – and to stay in lockdown until as many as we can are vaccinated.  “As Chris Whitty has indicated speeding the lockdown release will lead to more transmission and so more likely mutants – or existing mutants spreading – so the mutations are fed by meeting up and not getting vaccinated.”

[Mutations] are already on the way to becoming immune to our current vaccines.
Professor Ravi GuptaCambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease

Harvard Professor Dr William Hannage explained it is key to stop the new variants before they can get a foothold as it stops the spread which fuels the mutations. He told The Sun Online: “At the moment there is a lot of concern around E484K, a mutation in the spike protein which is thought to help the virus sidestep immunity from prior infection and is found in several of the variants. “While it looks like vaccines  should still offer protection, at least from severe disease, this is one to watch.  “It is why the government has been so keen to stop B.1.351 (the South African variant) from getting a toehold in the UK, because one of the mutations characterizing that variant is E484K. “There are a few others as well which make antibody treatments less effective.” Scientists are already working on tweaked vaccines to help deal with new mutations in future, much like the flu vaccine which is altered every year. Ravi Gupta, a professor of Clinical Microbiology at the Cambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease said: “(Mutations) are already on the way to becoming immune to our current vaccines. “For example, the AstraZeneca study did not do well against the South African strain. “The virus is already on its way to becoming resistant to what we have at the moment. There’s evidence the same mutations are cropping up again and again. “For example, the Brazil and South African variants have this E484K mutation that really makes it hard for our antibodies to neutralise and stop the virus from causing infection.” There has been growing concern over the spread of South African and Brazilian variants of coronavirus in Europe as a third wave of Covid-19 sweeps across the continent. A string of countries have gone back into lockdown or tightened up measures again in response to spiking infection rates.  Speaking in a video on social media this morning, the Mr Johnson isued a warning to anyone planning to see loved ones for the first time in months over Easter. He said the country is “not yet” at the stage where families and friends can meet inside, even if they have been vaccinated. Mr Johnson added: “We’re very much in a world where you can meet friends and family outdoors under the rule of six or two households. “And even though friends and family members may be vaccinated, the vaccines are not giving 100 per cent protection and that’s why we just need to be cautious. “We don’t think they entirely reduce or remove the risk of transmission.”  Nick Note: Speaking as your librarian, my research indicates if you have had both doses of your mRNA vaccine you should have great immunity. We have set up a vaccinated bubble here. Anyone in the compound has had to completed the vaccines and not been around non vaccinated people. Its good to share meals again and not viewing people through plexiglass, . My daughters have gone to see mom for spring break who they have not been with for a year during the lockdowns. Since they are flying when they come back its 15 day quarantine and test every 5 days. Our greatest threat is flying and non vaccinated people. SO far the vaccine seems to offer significant protection from lnown variants. I am sure we will get a mutated variants. This will come from and circulate among the barbarian unvaccinated hordes. The trick here is to WAIT for the mutations to arrive and the coming booster shots. This is our new reality. Do not let your guard down. Please continue to follow your protection regime including the vitamins and supplements. We have developed and ordered and paid for our super vitamin. This is being manufactured in a USDA certified facility in the US. The CoronaVit  was supposed to be delivered in January……. Welcome to the new reality. The global economy is still climbing out of shutdowns. Our vitamins ingredients never combined before are still in independent lab verification. I will advise when they are ready and we will ship you a supply to try.

US nonfarm payrolls up by 916,000 in March

March unemployment rate falls to 6%

  • Nonfarm payrolls handily topped Wall Street estimates, rising 916K in March, the Labor Department reports, compared with economist forecasts for a rise of around 650K.
  • The jobless rate dipped to 6% from 6.2%, in line with forecasts.
  • The report will be welcome news to those on Wall Street hoping for economic data to start to show concrete results of a strong recovery after the success of the recovery trade in Q1.
  • It’s the biggest number of jobs created since August.
  • Revisions to the previous two months also added 156K jobs.
  • Private sector jobs rose by 780K vs. expectations of 643K.
  • Leisure and hospitality added 280K jobs, with 176K coming from food services and drinking places. Arts, entertainment and recreation added 64K jobs.
  • Labor force participation was a bit of a concern, edging up barely to 61.5%.
  • That’s “suggesting that labor supply may soon become the constraint on this recovery,” Julia Pollack, labor economist at ZipRecruiter, tweets.
  • Average hours earnings fell unexpectedly by 0.1% for the month, compared with an expected rise of 0.1%. That could be driven by workers in more lower wage sectors being hired as areas continue to open up.
  • Wage inflation still looks a long way off.
  • The average hourly work week rose 0.3 hour to 34.9 hours, suggesting there employers are still pushing current workers for more. But that could bode well for job gains in future months as that hits a plateau.
  • The numbers bode well for cyclical stocks to continue to outperform, but technology dominated this past week.

(Bloomberg) — U.S. employers added the most jobs in seven months with improvement across most industries in March, as more vaccinations and fewer business restrictions supercharged the labor market recovery. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 last month and February employment was revised up to a 468,000 gain, according to a Labor Department report Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 660,000 rise. The unemployment rate fell to 6%.

graphical user interface: U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, the most since August © Bloomberg U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, the most since August

Rising Covid-19 infections had severely restrained the labor market for months, but now more than two million Americans are getting vaccinated daily and economic activity is picking up. This also helps explain why the workforce participation rate edged up in March. What’s more, businesses have a clearer view of potential demand as a wave of stimulus-supported consumer spending is poised to wash over the nation’s service providers. Local and state government education employment increased by about 126,000, reflecting the return of more in-person learning at schools. “The end of the pandemic appears to be in sight as vaccine distribution accelerates, and the economic recovery looks like it’s champing at the bit,” Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, said in a note. “We may be looking at a bright summer with monthly gains of over a million jobs, getting us much closer to pre-pandemic employment.” While stronger sales and daily progress in the fight against the coronavirus will help bring the labor market closer to its pre-pandemic employment levels, a full recovery will take time. U.S. Treasury yields received a bump higher following the report, with the 10-year rate climbing as high as 1.69%, although it remained within around 2 basis points of its prior day close. U.S. stocks are closed Friday for a holiday.

The payroll figures showed broad-based gains across industries, led by a 280,000 surge in leisure and hospitality. Construction payrolls jumped 110,000 after dipping in February amid severe winter weather. Education employment also climbed as more schools reopened. Manufacturing employment increased by 53,000 last month, the biggest advance since September.

chart: Path to Recovery © Bloomberg Path to Recovery

The $1.9 trillion stimulus package signed last month by President Joe Biden should give an additional shot of adrenaline to hiring amid renewed support for businesses and individuals. Labor Department Secretary Marty Walsh called the jobs report “very encouraging,” in an interview on Bloomberg Television. But he said, “we still have a long way to go.” In addition, the sweeping infrastructure plan that Biden unveiled Wednesday will help to “reinvigorate labor” and the economy in the future, Walsh said. A report Thursday from the National Federation of Independent Business showed a record share of small-business owners in March said they had unfilled positions. That indicates employment will remain strong in coming months. Further, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pledged the central bank will continue to support the economy with accommodative monetary policy, despite the recent uptrend in economic and employment data. Even with the sharp advance in March, payrolls remained 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic peak of about 152.5 million. “The recovery is far from complete,” Powell said at the House Financial Services Committee hearing on March 23. “As we have emphasized throughout the pandemic, the path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus.” The U-6 rate, also known as the underemployment rate, declined to 10.7% from 11.1%. It is often thought of as a more inclusive measure of unemployment than the headline figure because it also accounts for those who stopped looking for a job because they were discouraged about their prospects and those working part-time but desiring a full workweek. The participation rate, which is the share of the population that is either working or actively looking for work, improved to 61.5% last month from 61.4%. The so-called prime-age participation rate, or the participation rate among those ages 25-54, climbed as more women returned to the workforce. The report also showed the average workweek increased by 18 minutes to 34.9 hours, partly reflecting a bounce back from severe winter weather a month earlier. Unemployment rate declined for all races except Asian-AmericansJobless rate for Asian-Americans rose to 6% from 5.1%, reflecting both an increase in the number of people entering the labor force and more unemployed. Black unemployment rate fell to 9.6%, still the highest among races. Jobless rate among Hispanics fell to 7.9%; unemployment rate for Whites dropped to 5.4%. Nick Note: A very strong report that confirms the other reports i am seeing. This is a great big juicy reflation..

Asia trades higher amid Good Friday holiday

(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures posted modest gains Friday after U.S. shares reached a record on optimism over a stimulus-fueled economic rebound. Trading volumes were below average due to holidays. Chip-makers bolstered South Korean equities following a report that the U.S. plans to meet with semiconductor and auto companies to discuss the global microprocessor shortage. A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares rose for a second day. U.S. equity futures edged up after the S&P 500 closed above 4,000 for the first time. Tech shares outperformed and value stocks rallied as traders weighed President Joe Biden’s $2.25 trillion spending plan and signs of faster growth. Treasuries rebounded after the worst quarter in decades with 10-year yields falling back below 1.7%. The dollar retreated. Oil climbed after the OPEC+ alliance agreed to boost output gradually. In Asia, markets including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and India are shut for holidays, as are many worldwide.

Investors are cheering increasing signs of strength in the U.S. economy. Manufacturing growth roared ahead in March, and government job-market data due Friday are expected to show the first in a series of outsized monthly increases.

Biden’s plan to rebuild infrastructure strengthens the outlook, though questions remain about how much of it can actually be delivered. Investors for now are looking past worsening virus trends, such as Chile’s move to close its borders for April and a lockdown in France. They remain focused on inflation risk amid the economic rebound.

“Before you worry about inflation, there’s reflation and I think that’s the main theme in the market,” said Ed Campbell, fund manager and managing director at QMA.

Traders are braced for the U.S. jobs report, which could roil the bond market in a holiday-shortened trading session. Very strong data may push benchmark yields back toward a recent one-year peak of 1.77%.

The last thing this week before Easter is the U.S. employment report for March on Friday. Good Friday starts the Easter weekend (most markets closed) in countries including the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Australia and Canada.

S&P 500 hits 4,000 record on tech strength, reopening optimism

April 1 (Reuters) – The S&P 500 on Thursday crossed the 4,000 mark for the first time, as technology shares, led by chipmakers, gained following an upbeat earnings outlook by Micron, while optimism about the U.S. economic growth lifted sentiment. Seven of the 11 S&P sectors rose, with technology and communication services gaining more than 1.5%. Increased vaccinations and massive fiscal stimulus are powering a recovery in the labor market, which helped investors shrug off latest data that showed a rise in the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits last week. The closely-watched monthly jobs report on Friday could show U.S. economy added 647,000 jobs last month after February’s 379,000 rise. “The data continues to give confidence that the earnings are going to be revised higher,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James. “April is usually a pretty good month for the market historically and I would expect that momentum to continue especially as we see the economy strengthen.” Micron Technology Inc advanced 4.8% after the chipmaker forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates due to higher demand for memory chips, thanks to 5G smartphones and artificial intelligence software. U.S.-listed shares of rival Taiwan Semiconductor rose 3.8% on its plan to invest $100 billion over the next three years to meet the rising chip demand. The technology-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.5% as “high flying” stocks including Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp and Facebook Inc added between 1.1% and 2.3% after underperforming last month on concerns over elevated valuations. The S&P 500 had hit an intraday high on Wednesday as President Joe Biden unveiled a $2 trillion-plus plan to rebuild the world’s largest economy. Biden’s “American Jobs Plan” would put corporate America on the hook for the tab as the government creates millions of jobs building infrastructure, such as roads, tackles climate change and boosts human services like care for the elderly. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.89-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3.20-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 33 new highs and three new lows.  Nick Note: No human has been any clearer. In spits of a great disinformation campaign, record margin calls and economic bullshit campaign and threats against us. This is going to be the greatest TECH led stock market SHORT TERM Bull run in history. We traded it through the fastest 10% correction the NASDAQ has ever seen in the CFD account and booked close to a half a million in profits to show you how to do it. Now as you are seeing the wounds the investment banks inflicted on you are healing VERY quickly. As I have proven throughout my career. Just because they have trillion of dollars these guys are not omnipotent. In fact they are down right stupid. Mike Tyson in his prime was a monster. Like OJ Simpson supermen. SO!  Neither one of them could do a simple equation. Could they preform life saving surgery? Run into a burning building and save children? Make land produce food. Design and engineer living spaces. Cure disease or make people rich? Grow a business from nothing and provide jobs? Even care for the sick or raise someone else’s children. The contributions from the Gorillas were beating people up including girlfriends, rape, murder and massive drug use. Not capable of figuring the area of a cylinder. And ask them to write simple computer code for a laugh.. No more then guerrilla’s in a three piece suit. The people who populate the investment banks of the world are animals. Sneaky manipulative back stabbing criminals. Destroying wealth. Looting retirement funds, overvaluing shit companies and wiping out good ones with debt they will never pay back.  And as you will see in time they will destroy the global financial system creating a global depression with starvation and oppression the likes of which the world has never seen before. Mankind.. Womankind and LGBTkind for that matter will be reduced to savages eating their children to survive. Wall Street especially the investment banks are little more then street hoodlums in pin stripes. A different kind of Animal then the gorilla…..  A combination of a demon, changeling and snake in the grass comes to mind. You have been warned. Now lets precede to Phase II and organize ourselves as a group to do good and make  money. I think I have proven to you that I know how to take them on and can engage them successfully. And I know how to do good. The time has come both market wise and structure wise to begin our greatest endeavor ever together. Check your email and mail box. We will be in touch. And ring my phone 24/7. No waiting, no receptionist, no bullshit. Maybe a little raw at times but you will find the real thing at the end of the line. I defy you to show me anyone in finance qualified or not accessible to you DIRECTLY.  SHIT!! call your broker and after a 20 minute wait you will be lucky to get a desk clerk who cannot even tell you the margin rate…….. I thnkyou for being with me

Eurozone manufacturing PMI up to record 62.5 in March

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 62.5 in March, up from February’s 57.9. Manufacturing economy “performed extremely strongly”, with “operating conditions improving to the greatest degree in nearly 24 years of data collection.” Looking at some member states, Germany PMI manufacturing rose to 66.6, a record high. The Netherlands rose to 64.7, record high. Australia rose to 63.4, 39-month high. Italy rose to 59.8, 252-month high. France rose to 59.3, 246-month high. Ireland rose to 57.1, 8-month high. Spain rose to 56.9, 171-month high. Even Greece rose to 51.8, 13-month high. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Although centred on Germany… the improving trend is broad based across the region as factories benefit from rising domestic demand and resurgent export growth…. Driving the upturn has been a marked improvement in business confidence in recent months, with expectations of growth in the year ahead running at record highs in February and March.”

Nick News: Further PROOF we are in a world wide recovery. Good news on the vaccine front. It looks like fully vaccinated people who have received the mRNA breakthrough vaccines Appear to have immunity from the mutant strains. Its a race to vaccinate@

<a
href=’https://ads.actionforex.com/www/delivery/ck.php?n=af1a6833′
target=’_blank’><img
src=’https://ads.actionforex.com/www/delivery/avw.php?zoneid=75&amp;n=af1a6833′
border=’0′ alt=” /></a>

ADP: US private payrolls rise by 517,000 in March

The number of jobs in the United States private sector rose by 517,000 in March compared to the previous month, below analyst expectations, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Employment in midsized businesses contributed the most to the growth having added 188,000 jobs this month, while small companies hired 174,000. Meanwhile, large businesses added 155,000 jobs. Jobs growth in the service-providing sector accounted for most of the gains in March at 437,000 new jobs, a majority of them in the leisure and hospitality industries. “We saw marked improvement in March’s labor market data, reporting the strongest gain since September 2020,” chief economist at ADP Nela Richardson said.

U.S. private employers added back more than half a million jobs in March for the best gain since September, according to a report from ADP on Wednesday. However, job growth still slightly missed expectations, even as February’s inclement weather abated and the domestic vaccination program picked up steam. Private payrolls grew by 517,000 in March, ADP said in its closely watched monthly report.

This followed a revised gain of 176,000 in February, up from the 117,000 previously reported. Consensus economists were looking for domestic private employers to bring back 550,000 jobs during the month, according to Bloomberg data.The report was “mildly disappointing,” Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Ian Shepherdson said in an email Wednesday morning. However, he noted that it does not change the “improving” big picture for the trajectory of the U.S. economy. “This report is nothing more than a snapshot of the labor market in early March compared to early February. It tell us nothing about the likely path of payrolls as the economy fully reopens over the next couple months,” Shepherdson said. “We expect 1M-plus payrolls in April, and then substantially bigger increases in May and June.” In March, the services sector again handily led the way in recovering jobs, with service-providing payrolls climbing by 437,000. Leisure and hospitality industries made the largest advances, with payrolls rising by 169,000. Trade, transportation and utilities jobs also rose by 92,000, and professional and business services jobs rose by 83,000.  The goods-producing sector also posted net private payroll gains in March, with these increasing by 80,000. Construction and manufacturing jobs rose by 32,000 and 49,000, respectively, though mining positions edged lower by 1,000.   Heading into Wednesday’s report, more timely data on the state of the U.S. labor market hinted at an upturn in employment at the beginning of spring. New weekly jobless claims fell to a pandemic-era low last week, as the number of those newly unemployed fell by the most in seven months. Plus, the Conference Board’s latest report this week showed that consumer confidence picked up to a one-year high in March, with stronger consumption trends and increased demand set to engender more hiring. ADP’s private payrolls report also sets the stage for the U.S. Labor Department’s “official” March jobs report due out on Friday. The ADP report has typically been an unreliable indicator of the results in the government report due to differences in survey methodology, with ADP only counting individuals on active payrolls during the survey period as employed, whereas the Labor Department includes those receiving paychecks during the survey period.  Based on the latest consensus data from Bloomberg, Friday’s report will likely show that non-farm payrolls grew by 650,000 in March, or by the most in five months. The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.2 percentage points to a fresh pandemic-era low of 6.0%.  Nick Note: you hire people as you reopen your business. Making this a leading indicator. Profits on the bottom line are a laging indicator. The US economy as is the world economy is opening up. Jobs are plentiful and easy to find. The masses are flush with cash. No matter what they spend their money on it ends up on wall street as either taxes or as shares in stocks the masses hold. Get off you ass and get ready for the biggest freeging stock market rally since the end of World war II and the rebuilding fifties….

One of World’s Greatest Hidden Fortunes Is Wiped Out in Days

Nick Bite: If he has got a hairy set of balls and brains he can have his fortune back in 6 months and double it in a year. This is where we separate the chumps from the Warriors. His trade rationale was right. Stock picks were brilliant. He just needs to beg borrow steal all he can and buy back in.. At half price…..

(Bloomberg) — From his perch high above Midtown Manhattan, just across from Carnegie Hall, Bill Hwang was quietly building one of the world’s greatest fortunes. Even on Wall Street, few ever noticed him — until suddenly, everyone did. Hwang and his private investment firm, Archegos Capital Management, are now at the center of one of the biggest margin calls of all time — a multibillion-dollar fiasco involving secretive market bets that were dangerously leveraged and unwound in a blink. Hwang’s most recent ascent can be pieced together from stocks dumped by banks in recent days — ViacomCBS Inc., Discovery Inc. GSX Techedu Inc., Baidu Inc. — all of which had soared this year, sometimes confounding traders who couldn’t fathom why. One part of Hwang’s portfolio, which has been traded in blocks since Friday by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co., was worth almost $40 billion last week. Bankers reckon that Archegos’s net capital — essentially Hwang’s wealth — had reached north of $10 billion. And as disposals keep emerging, estimates of his firm’s total positions keep climbing: tens of billions, $50 billion, even more than $100 billion. It evaporated in mere days. “I’ve never seen anything like this — how quiet it was, how concentrated, and how fast it disappeared,” said Mike Novogratz, a career macro investor and former partner at Goldman Sachs who’s been trading since 1994. “This has to be one of the single greatest losses of personal wealth in history.” Late Monday in New York, Archegos broke days of silence on the episode. “This is a challenging time for the family office of Archegos Capital Management, our partners and employees,” Karen Kessler, a spokesperson for the firm, said in an emailed statement. “All plans are being discussed as Mr. Hwang and the team determine the best path forward.” The cascade of trading losses has reverberated from New York to Zurich to Tokyo and beyond, and leaves myriad unanswered questions, including the big one: How could someone take such big risks, facilitated by so many banks, under the noses of regulators the world over?

One part of the answer is that Hwang set up as a family office with limited oversight and then employed financial derivatives to amass big stakes in companies without ever having to disclose them.

Another part is that global banks embraced him as a lucrative customer, despite a record of insider trading and attempted market manipulation that drove him out of the hedge fund business a decade ago. A disciple of hedge-fund legend Julian Robertson, Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang shuttered Tiger Asia Management and Tiger Asia Partners after settling an SEC civil lawsuit in 2012 accusing them of insider trading and manipulating Chinese banks stocks. Hwang and the firms paid $44 million, and he agreed to be barred from the investment advisory industry. He soon opened Archegos — Greek for “one who leads the way” — and structured it as a family office. that exclusively manage one fortune are generally exempt from registering as investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. So they don’t have to disclose their owners, executives or how much they manage — rules designed to protect outsiders who invest in a fund. That approach makes sense for small family offices, but if they swell to the size of a hedge fund whale they can still pose risks, this time to outsiders in the broader market. “This does raise questions about the regulation of family offices once again,” said Tyler Gellasch, a former SEC aide who now runs the Healthy Markets trade group. “The question is if it’s just friends and family why do we care? The answer is that they can have significant market impacts, and the SEC’s regulatory regime even after Dodd-Frank doesn’t clearly reflect that.” Archegos established trading partnerships with firms including Nomura Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG. For a time after the SEC case, Goldman refused to do business with him on compliance grounds, but relented as rivals profited by meeting his needs. The full picture of his holdings is still emerging, and it’s not clear what positions derailed, or what hedges he had set up. One reason is that Hwang never filed a 13F report of his holdings, which every investment manager holding more than $100 million in U.S. equities must fill out at the end of each quarter. That’s because he appears to have structured his trades using total return swaps, essentially putting the positions on the banks’ balance sheets. Swaps also enable investors to add a lot of leverage to a portfolio. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, for instance, are listed as the largest holders of GSX Techedu, a Chinese online tutoring company that’s been repeatedly targeted by short sellers. Banks may own shares for a variety of reasons that include hedging swap exposures from trades with their customers. Goldman increased its position 54% in January, according to regulatory filings. Overall, banks reported holding at least 68% of GSX’s outstanding shares, according to a Bloomberg analysis of filings. Banks held at least 40% of IQIYI Inc, a Chinese video entertainment company, and 29% of ViacomCBS — all of which Archegos had bet on big. “I’m sure there are a number of really unhappy investors who have bought those names over the last couple of weeks,” and now regret it, Doug Cifu, chief executive officer of electronic-trading firm Virtu Financial Inc., said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg TV. He predicted regulators will examine whether “there should be more transparency and disclosure by a family office.” Without the need to market his fund to external investors, Hwang’s strategies and performance remained secret from the outside world. Even as his fortune swelled, the 50-something kept a low profile. Despite once working for Robertson’s Tiger Management, he wasn’t well-known on Wall Street or in New York social circles. Hwang is a trustee of the Fuller Theology Seminary, and co-founder of the Grace and Mercy Foundation, whose mission is to serve the poor and oppressed. The foundation had assets approaching $500 million at the end of 2018, according to its latest filing. “It’s not all about the money, you know,” he said in a rare interview with a Fuller Institute executive in 2018, in which he spoke about his calling as an investor and his Christian faith. “It’s about the long term, and God certainly has a long-term view.” His extraordinary run of fortune turned early last week as ViacomCBS Inc. announced a secondary offering of its shares. Its stock price plunged 9% the next day. The value of other securities believed to be in Archegos’ portfolio based on the positions that were block traded followed. By Thursday’s close, the value of the portfolio fell 27% — more than enough to wipe out the equity of an investor who market participants estimate was six to eight times levered. It’s also hurt some of the banks that served Hwang. Nomura and Credit Suisse warned of “significant” losses in the wake of the selloff and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. has flagged a potential $300 million loss. “You have to wonder who else is out there with one of these invisible fortunes,” said Novogratz. “The psychology of all that leverage with no risk management, it’s almost nihilism.” NB Its brilliant!

Nick Note: As you can see by the above chart these were great trades and now are bargains. Lets call this the Peking Duck trade. He got nailed by the news flow. My experience is if your fundamentals are right you hand on. Unfortunately he got caught overleveraged. leveraging is good. Leveraging is what millionaires do. OVERLEVERAGING MAKES YOU A BILLIONAIRE.

Archegos-Linked Stocks Show Muted Gains as Volatility Subsides

(Bloomberg) — The stocks at the center of the Archegos Capital Management crisis posted gains in premarket trading as investors assessed whether the fallout from forced offerings has further to run. ViacomCBS Inc. rose 1.6% at 7:03 a.m. in New York following its weeklong plunge, with Discovery Inc. up 1% and Tencent Music Entertainment Group climbing by 1.5%. The American depositary receipts of Chinese companies Baidu Inc. and GSX Techedu Inc. also advanced, while Vipshop Holdings Ltd. gained 4% after announcing a $500 million buyback. Shares in the companies, which also include Farfetch Ltd. and Iqiyi Inc., have had a rocky couple of sessions following the forced liquidation of positions linked to Bill Hwang’s Archegos, with ViacomCBS down 55% in the last week. While investors remain nervous about the potential for more liquidations, there have been no signs yet of a broader contagion. “Market participants will be glad to see this has so far been contained — though there may be some more trades related to Archegos that need unwinding,” Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said by email. “Banks left holding the bag — which look to be Nomura and Credit Suisse more than others — will suffer significant losses.” Shares in Credit Suisse and Nomura both extended Monday’s steep declines, with the lenders having warned of potential “significant” losses after an unnamed U.S. hedge fund client defaulted on margin calls. Credit Suisse fell 2.2% at 12:47 p.m. in Zurich trading, taking its decline for the week to 16%. Nomura shed a further 0.7% in Tokyo, following Monday’s 16% slump. Stocks valued at $2.64 billion changed hands in a flurry of block trades Monday. Five of them valued at a combined $2.14 billion were executed by Wells Fargo & Co., according to a person familiar with the matter. Separately, about 20 million shares of Rocket Cos. were sold through Morgan Stanley, people familiar with the matter said.Archegos broke its silence on the matter late Monday.

“This is a challenging time for the family office of Archegos Capital Management, our partners and employees,” Karen Kessler, a spokesperson for the firm, said in an emailed statement. “All plans are being discussed as Mr. Hwang and the team determine the best path forward.”

Kessler works at Evergreen Partners, which specializes in crisis communications and reputation management, according to its website. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has been monitoring the forced liquidation in holdings linked to Archegos, a spokesperson said. Nick Note: You got to LOVE this guy!

Archegos Capital Fire Sale Triggers Billions in Investment Bank Losses

Multiple media reports, as well as statements from at least two investment banks, put the Archegos Capital at the heart of a multi-billion sell-off on Wall Street.

Nomura  (NMR) – Get Report and Credit Suisse’s  (CS) – Get Report U.S.-listed shares plunged lower Monday after the investment banks said its exposure to an unnamed hedge fund could trigger a billions in loss as investors picked-through the debris of the Archegos Capital margin call. Credit Suisse Group  (CS) – Get Report, a Zurich-based investment bank that also has shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange, cautioned Monday that a “significant US-based hedge fund defaulted on margin calls made last week” on positions in unnamed stocks, adding that “a number of other banks are in the process of exiting these positions.” Media reports have named Archegos Capital as the hedge fund in question, with details emerging of a $10 billion to $20 billion position in so-called total return swaps (TRS) that allow a ‘buyer’ to receive running payments on a basket of reference shares without actually owning them. Archegos was also reported to have used ‘contracts for difference” or CFDs, which are similar to total returns swaps but only pay out at the end of a defined period.  Leverage was used to increase that exposure, which was based on U.S. and China-based media stocks including ViacomCBS VIAC, Discovery  (DISCA), Baidu  (BIDU) and Tencent Music  (TME), while the shares themselves were held by the banks, which acted as prime brokers New York-based Archegos.  “While at this time it is premature to quantify the exact size of the loss resulting from this exit, it could be highly significant and material to our first quarter results, notwithstanding the positive trends announced in our trading statement earlier this month,” Credit Suisse said in a statement.   “Nomura is currently evaluating the extent of the possible loss and the impact it could have on its consolidated financial results,” the bank said Monday, adding its current estimate is “approximately $2 billion based on market prices as of March 26” but is “subject to change depending on unwinding of the transactions and fluctuations in market prices.”  Nomura shares were marked 14% lower in pre-market trading in New York to indicate an opening bell price of $5.68 each. Credit Suisse shares slumped 11.8% to $11.35 each. With investment banks tapping near-zero interest rate liquidity from central banks around the world, many of their prime brokerage operations have been able to provide significant leverage to hedge fund clients, allowing them to boost exposure to stocks and other assets while ramping-up potential returns in the process. This may have allowed Archegos Capital and its founder, Bill Hawang, to build massive exposure to certain stocks without drawing the notice of market regulators, as the structure of a TRS doesn’t require disclosure of ownership in the underlying stocks. ViacomCBS shares, which were at the heart of the Archegos trade, began trading lower last week after the media group announced a $3 billion capital raising initiative. Tencent and Baidu, meanwhile, fell later in the week amid reports that the Securities & Exchange Commission was working through rule changes that could see some China-based stocks removed from U.S. exchanges. The losses triggered a margin call from various prime brokerage operations, including Nomura and Credit Suisse, that may have resulted in a massive ‘block sale’ of shares on Friday that was ultimately traced back to Archegos. ViacomCBS edged 1.6% higher in pre-market trading Monday while Discovery shares were last seen 5% higher at $44.00 each. Nick Note: Bankers are not traders. And the compliance and risk departments at banks are run by clerks who use to run the mortgage and car loan department. I have been  advising the one who talk to me to do nothing.  Take the loss on the quarter and hold the shares in the house account. In six months all these trades will be in BIG profits.These are all good companies. It was the leverage that blew up this trade, It started when Viacom announced a share offering that depressed the stock price. Then the book got hit again when the government announced a SEC review of China companies on the NY stock excahne. Baidu and Tencent amoung others got hit. These are all great companies and in the case of the Chins stocks they got 2 years to meet US accounting standards. Their is noting to worry about and nothing to do. All he had to do was raise more cash and WAIT … Do nothing. I am sure you have heard that from me before……… NEVER let a fucking banker leverage you book or hold the shares. They will shit it up every time…. For our trading this is the best news in the world. WHen they scratch their ass and figure out thee stocks like all NASDAQ shares are BARGAINS after the 10% CORRECTION we just had. AND and the NASDAQ will come alive as the US comes out of lock down……. I can’t wait… well that’s not true i will wait on thIS rally as long as it takes……..

Credit Suisse warns of ‘significant’ losses from exiting hedge fund positions

ZURICH (Reuters) – Credit Suisse’s first quarter results could suffer a material impact after the bank started exiting positions after a U.S.-based hedge fund defaulted on margin calls it made, the bank said on Monday. “While at this time it is premature to quantify the exact size of the loss resulting from this exit, it could be highly significant and material to our first quarter results,” the bank said. Switzerland’s second biggest lender said the un-named hedge fund defaulted on margin calls made last week by Credit Suisse and other banks. A margin call is a demand from a broker to add more money to an account to cover potential losses. Following the failure of the fund to meet these margin commitments, Credit Suisse and a number of other banks are in the process of exiting these positions, Credit Suisse said. Credit Suisse said it would provide an update on the matter in “due course.” The warning is a further blow to the bank which is considering compensating investors hit by the collapse of funds linked to insolvent finance firm Greensill. The Swiss lender this month closed around $10 billion of supply-chain finance funds that bought notes from Greensill. Of this, $3.1 billion has so far been repaid and more than $1.2 billion in cash remains in the funds, leaving more than $5 billion outstanding. Nick Note: with a little bit of luck AND a lot of lucky guessing we may be able to turn these overleveraged hedge funds wiping out into a great big ugly bear trap. Won’t that be fun……. You don’t know how to to that? its OK because id do. Its called fucking them coming and going.. BlackJack