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Bear Warning Seen With Nasdaq 100 Velocity Stalling at 2000 Peak

  • Rising yields, cheaper stocks pose threats to tech sector
  • Nasdaq unable to maintain its gains relative to S&P 500
Tech Stocks Set for `Bumpy Ride,’ Saxo Bank Says

A rebound in the Nasdaq 100 that recouped as much as half of its $1.5 trillion losses from its February high hasn’t been enough to deter skeptics. In fact, analysts are warning that the index may yet face more battering. Their concern emanates from the bond market, where rising yields have put pressure on richly valued stocks such as the tech companies that populate the Nasdaq gauge. An increase of 50 basis point in 10-year Treasury yields could lead to a bear market for the index, or a decline of as much as 20%, according to a study from Ned Davis Research. And as the economy heals, investors are embracing sectors such as energy that will likely benefit. One way of seeing the impact of that rotation out of tech is to plot the Nasdaq’s relative altitude versus the S&P 500, a gap that after briefly exceeding its level from 2000 has recently narrowed. To DoubleLine Capital LP founder Jeffrey Gundlach, it’s a sign that another collapse may be in store. While single-day rallies — 4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday — lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend. In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled. “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.” The Nasdaq 100 is poised to trail the S&P 500 for a second month in a row. In a week when the tech-heavy gauge fell into a 10% correction, other indexes tracking everything from small-caps to banks, transports to industrials, climbed to records. On Wednesday, a version of the S&P 500 that strips out market cap bias — treating Apple Inc. the same as News Corp. — hit an all-time high even as the Nasdaq 100 was roughly 8% below its February record, a divergence not seen in two decades. That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later — a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble. Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value. “People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.” .To be sure, as expensive as they may look now, software and internet stocks don’t match the extremes seen 20 years ago. And thanks to innovations like cloud computing and automation, their earnings are expanding, as opposed to contracting or nonexistent, as they were in 2000. But the strengthening economy, buttressed by vaccines and government support, alongside rising bond yields could mean trouble for the market’s biggest secto

While some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk, saying tech stocks have shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time,Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield — the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are — has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates. In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal. If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000. Based on the price-earnings ratio, the Nasdaq 100 isn’t cheap relative to other stocks, even after the latest pullback. With a multiple of 28, its premium over the S&P 500 stood roughly 7% above its five-year average. Moreover, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear — at least for the next two years — as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.

Of course, with the latest federal relief package approved, cash may again flood into equities, preventing losses from snowballing.Yet with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group. “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said. “After a prolonged period of extensive out performance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of under performance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.” Nick Note: Now that you read the bullshit let me tell you the facts. The day after the NASDAQ put in its record highs on February 18th  the Hedge Fund manipulators pounded the stocks of the NASDAQ with 8 trading days of massive selling. Their cover story is the yield on the 10 year bond that was on record lows would rise……. Really? we are talking a 50 bases point rise half a percent will cars the NASDAQ///// talk about STUPID!!!  so let me see if i can explain their Ned Davis bullshit research spin. The justification for their manipulation is the yield in the 10 year bond has risen by 50 bases points this year. And maybe their is another 50 bases point rise in the next year. SO! do you really think NASDAQ high tech investors are swayed by the yield on 10 year…….. Bullshit. Do you think the millennial investor sees the sleepy bond market as a alternative investment. Our whole trade rational NOW rests on 2 things….. The economic recovery and the millennials looking for a BIG score… and a 1% increase in the 10 year bond is not what they are hunting for. I doubt they even know how to by a bond or calculate the real yield….what ever that shit is. I am betting on happy check rich millennials boosted by the BIG economic recover will bet big time on high tech stocks. And i predict we will give the hedge funds and Ned another ass kicking! I thought you should know who your enemies are…… Its the same ones in every trade………

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S&P 500, Nasdaq weighed down by spike in bond yields

Reuters) – The S&P 500 slipped on Friday after hitting an all-time high in the prior session, as a spike in U.S. bond yields revived inflation worries and dented appetite for high-growth stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 1.1% after rebounding more than 6% over the past three sessions, while the blue-chip Dow, on the other hand, was closing in on its fifth consecutive record high. Wall Street’s main indexes are set for their best week in six after one of the largest U.S. fiscal stimulus bills was signed into law and data reinforced views that the economy was on the path to a recovery. A consistent rise in U.S. bond yields has raised fears of a sudden tapering of monetary stimulus, pressuring the main U.S. stock indexes in recent weeks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year notes rose back above 1.60% on Friday to approach the one-year highs touched last week. “The risks of inflation picking up have increased significantly due to a jump in money supply through stimulus and the anticipated demand that we might see as the economy slowly unlocks,” said Jonathan Bell, chief investment officer at Stanhope Capital in London. Speedy vaccine distribution and more fiscal aid have also added to concerns of higher inflation despite assurances from the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative policy. All eyes will now be on the central bank’s policy meeting next week for further cues on inflation. U.S. consumer sentiment improved more than expected in March, hitting its highest level in a year, a survey by the University of Michigan showed on Friday. At 10:10 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 155.74 points, or 0.48%, to 32,641.33, the S&P 500 lost 8.83 points, or 0.22 %, to 3,930.51 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 146.37 points, or 1.09 %, to 13,252.31. The Nasdaq has been particularly hit by the sell-off in recent weeks and confirmed a correction at the start of the week as investors swapped richly valued technology stocks with those of energy, mining and industrials companies that are poised to benefit more from an economic rebound. The yield-sensitive group of Facebook Inc Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Netflix Inc, Google-parent Alphabet Inc, Tesla Inc and Microsoft Corp were down between 1% and 3%. Tech, communication services and consumer discretionary indexes, which house these mega-cap stocks, slipped the most among major S&P sectors. Banks jumped about 2%, while financials, industrials clinched new record levels. Ulta Beauty Inc slumped about 11% after the cosmetics retailer forecast annual revenue below estimates, as demand for make-up products were under pressure due to extended work-from-home policies. The company also named President Dave Kimbell as its new chief executive officer. U.S.-listed shares of China-based JD.com Inc dropped nearly 6% after three sources said it is in talks to buy part or all of a stake in brokerage Sinolink Securities worth at least $1.5 billion. Declining issues matched advancers on the NYSE by a 1.5-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted 54 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 347 new highs and 10 new lows. Nick Note: This is beyond stupid. rates are where they were a year ago. Their is no inflation their will be no inflation and short rates where business financies at WILL NOT GO UP. The Fed who is the creature of short rates will not allow it… Let me show you how stupid this is… The thinking is NASDAQ stocks will be hit hard by higher rates that will not come and have not come… OK so the reason why the DOW is higher? They want you to believe DOW stocks don not go to the market to finance. Its down right stupid.  If you accept higher interest rates are coming,y are not on the short end. then if you are so fool as to belive those higher rates will crimp profits.. which is beyond studied… You then have to believe it will Affect NASDAQ listed companies more the DOW or S&P500 companies…. what bullshit!!

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Nasdaq futures fall nearly 2% as bond yields spike

Nadaq futures fell nearly 2% on Friday after rebounding more than 6% in the past three sessions, as a spike in U.S. bond yields reignited inflation worries and sent investors scurrying to the perceived safety of the dollar. Wall Street’s main indexes have come under pressure in the past few weeks as a consistent rise in borrowing costs have raised fears of a sudden tapering of monetary stimulus. The yield on the benchmark 10-year notes rose back above 1.60% on Friday to approach the one-year highs touched last week. Improving economic data and more fiscal stimulus have also fueled concerns of higher inflation despite assurances from the Federal Reserve to maintain an accommodative policy. All eyes will now be on the Fed’s policy meeting next week for further cues on inflation. At 5:40 a.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 230 points, or 1.76%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 22.5 points, or 0.57%, and Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.06%. The Nasdaq has been particularly hit by the sell-off in recent weeks and entered correction territory on Monday as investors swapped richly valued technology stocks with those of energy, mining and industrials companies that are poised to benefit more from an economic recovery. The yield-sensitive group of Facebook Inc Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Netflix Inc, Google-parent Alphabet Inc, Telsa Inc and Microsoft Corp were down between 1.7% and 4.4% in premarket trading. Big U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc were among the few gainers in early deals. Nick Note: The bond market is not the stock market. And millennials are not bond traders..

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Mall operator Hammerson’s loss soars as virus hit property values

Nick Bit: Simon has bought over 50 loser retailers….. All that is going for them is they can borrow themselves broke.  Many chains they have bought were broke before COVID. And to make matters worse  we have learned how to shop online……..

The American Dream mall is keeping up its reputation as an American nightmare. The owner of the 3.1 million-square-foot East Rutherford, N.J., mega-mall, Triple Five Group, could lose nearly half of its stakes in its Mall of America in Minnesota and West Edmonton Mall in Canada to its lenders because of American Dream’s struggles, Axios first reported. A spokesperson for Triple Five did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Triple Five could lose a 49 percent interest in the malls, because it used them as collateral for a $1.2 billion construction loan to build the long-delayed American Dream mall, which has faced cash problems due to the coronavirus pandemic. The $5 billion New Jersey mall — which includes retail, an indoor amusement park and water park, and a 16-story indoor ski slope — finally opened in 2019 after nearly two decades of construction and three developers, but COVID-19 threw yet another wrench into the project. Triple Five, owned by the Ghermezian family, was forced to close on March 16 as stay-at-home measures were put in place around New Jersey. It finally reopened in October but has faced cash flow problems, forcing it to miss payments. Kurt Hagen, an executive at Triple Five, told Bloomington, Minn., officials that Triple Five was “likely” to lose the stakes in the Mall of America and West Edmonton Mall, Bloomberg reported. “It would have been much better if American Dream would have burned down or a hurricane had hit it, financially, because we would have been covered by insurance,” Hagen said, according to Bloomberg. “This pandemic that we didn’t see coming has not been covered and was the worst scenario imaginable

Reuters) – Mall operator Hammerson posted a 1.7 billion pound ($2.37 billion) loss for 2020 and gave a formal warning about threats to its ability to continue as a going concern, as the value of properties sank in the COVID-19 crisis and it launched asset sales to bolster its finances. Shares in the company gained in initial deals after it said it had made 73 million pounds from the sale of the Brent South Shopping Park and its stakes in two French joint ventures. It also reported an almost halving of net rental revenue and said it had so far collected 76% of last year’s rents as the crisis battered its retail tenants. Hammerson said it would meet its liabilities at least for the next 12 months, but flagged that the impact of the virus on the retail sector and broader economy could cast significant doubt on its ability to carry on as a business. “More adverse outcomes relative to those assumed in the scenario modelling, could result in breaches in the Group’s unsecured gearing and interest cover ratio covenants,” the company said. British shopping centres are set to be fully operational only by mid May as per the phased exit plan from the latest round of restrictions which have kept shoppers at home and led to widespread rent deferrals by retailers. Hammerson’s total portfolio, including premium outlets, fell 24% in value to 6.34 billion pounds during 2020. “The portfolio is still in lockdown, tenant activity is on pause and we need to wait for the reopening to see how the rent roll performs through summer and into year end,” JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note. “2021 (is) all about disposals: Disposals will be necessary to lower its LTV of 46%.” The FTSE 250-listed company, which runs shopping malls such as the Bullring in Birmingham and Italie Deux in Paris, said the results represented its largest ever fall in net rental income and UK asset values. Adjusted profit sank to 36.5 million pounds for the full-year ended Dec. 31, compared with 214 million pounds a year earlier.

 

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First round of $1,400 COVID-19 relief checks to start hitting bank accounts this weekend

https://youtu.be/s5sZowlhU0I

WASHINGTON – The latest batch of COVID-19 relief checks will start arriving in a matter of days. The first checks of up to $1,400 will land in bank accounts this weekend via direct deposit, White House press secretary Jen Psaki announced Thursday. “This, of course, is just the first wave,” Psaki said. Payments to eligible Americans will continue over the next several weeks, she said. The checks are part of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the first major initiative of his presidency. Biden signed the bill into law on Thursday. Under the new law, individuals with an adjusted gross income of $80,000 or less ($160,000 for joint filers) are eligible for a one-time payment of up to $1,400, plus an additional $1,400 for each dependent child. The payments start to phase out for individuals earning $75,000 and will cut off completely for anyone who makes more than $80,000. For couples filing jointly, the phaseout starts for those making $150,000 and cuts off at $160,000. For those filing as head of household, the phaseout begins at $112,500 and cuts off at $120,000. Most Americans will receive the payments via direct deposit. Those who don’t will receive a debit card or a paper check, which will take longer to distribute.  The Internal Revenue Service will use tax returns on file to calculate how much money people will get. If recipients have already filed a return for 2020, their check will be based on their income from last year. If not, their 2019 returns will probably be used to determine how much they’ll get. Nick Note: They will try to fool you again. The happy checks are the biggest stock market even of our times. Its a two way trade. Ride it up and once the sheep have been led to the slaughter then short the shit out of this market. But first the rocket launch. As we speak hundreds of million of dollars are about to enter the stock market. And its armature hour. Most people it will be their first plane ride.

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Biden delivers his first primetime address…. If you did not see it live I urge you to watch now

President Joe Biden delivers his first national prime-time address from the White House on the anniversary of the nationwide Covid-19 shutdown. one-year anniversary of the coronavirus-induced shutdowns by commemorating Americans’ sacrifices and looking ahead toward a post-pandemic world. “I’m going to talk about what comes next,” Biden said Wednesday in a preview of the speech, which will be his first prime-time address as president. “I’m going to launch the next phase of the Covid response and explain what we will do as a government and what we will ask of the American people.” “There is light at the end of this dark tunnel,” he said. Biden, on his 50th day as president, will also use the spotlight to kick off a victory lap following the final passage in Congress of his $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill. Biden signed the bill into law Thursday afternoon. He is set to embark on a nationwide tour next week to tout the first major legislative accomplishment of his administration. The president will depart Tuesday for Delaware County in Pennsylvania, an electoral swing state that was key to Biden’s victory over former President Donald Trump. Biden’s prime-time speech is scheduled for just after 8 p.m. ET on Thursday night, and will be broadcast from the East Room of the White House. The address is expected to last less than 20 minutes, an administration official said. The president will acknowledge the devastating death toll of the pandemic — at least 529,267 dead in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University data — as well as the life-altering challenges caused by sudden lockdowns around the country, the official said. Biden is also expected to emphasize his administration’s efforts to rapidly ramp up production, acquisition and distribution of Covid vaccines, an unprecedented operational endeavor, according to the official. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Biden will “lay out some more specifics” of how the administration will fight the virus moving forward. Biden on Wednesday, in remarks following a meeting with executives from Johnson & Johnson and Merck, hinted that he will deliver a message of hope and promise through his prime-time address. But the Democratic president, in sharp contrast with his predecessor, suggested that he will continue to temper that optimism with notes of caution. “We cannot let our guard down now, or assume that victory is inevitable,” Biden said Wednesday. “Together, we’re going to get through this pandemic and usher in a healthier, more hopeful future.” “So there is real reason for hope, folks,” he said. Nick Note: Happy checks start hitting today. And the pump is primed to pour even more money into the economy….

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Investors dump bonds and gold, pile into equities: BofA

LONDON (Reuters) – Investors piled into equities, while pulling money out of gold and bonds in the week up to March 10, data from BofA Global Research showed.

BofA’s weekly flows report showed investors put $31.5 billion into equities, while taking $1.8 billion out of gold and $15.4 billion out of bonds. Bond yields spiked higher last week on inflation fears, while high-flying tech stocks sold off as investors rotated into cheaper value stocks.

Citing data from EPFR Global, BofA said last week saw the third-largest flows into emerging market stocks ever, and second-largest into value stocks. . Nick Note: the NASDAQ is an aggressive buy. On pull backs double down. Vast sums of money and incredible stupid buyers are about to come into this market in mass. We want to ride the tsunami wave… And as it crashes ashore we want to short the shit out of  stocks. Aggressive traders we will buy the rally and ride the wave. When the time comes this will be the greatest shorting opportunity ever. Risk Adverse ETF players go short stay short and WAIT… the big money will be made as the newest groups of suckers are cashed out.

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Dow, S&P 500 close at all-time highs

Stocks on Wall Street ended the session on Thursday in the green with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closing at all-time highs and tech shares sharply rebounding from a recent selloff. President Joe Biden signed into law the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package earlier, paving the way for direct payments for Americans, extended unemployment benefits and increased funding for vaccine distribution. The Dow Jones gained 0.58% or 32,485.59 points. Boeing was the top performer on the Dow, rising 2.71%. The S&P 500 jumped 1.04% to close at 3,939.34 points as mining company Freeport-McMoRan soared 8.73%. The Nasdaq 100 surged 2.36%; Pinduoduo leaped 9.63%.

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Biden signs $1.9T coronavirus relief bill…..

United States President Joe Biden signed on Thursday the $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill dubbed the American Rescue Package after it was approved by Congress earlier this week.

“I believe this historic legislation is about rebuilding the backbone of this country,” Biden said as he prepared to sign the package.

The final bill includes $1,400 direct stimulus checks to Americans, extended unemployment benefits of $300 per week, as well as $350 billion in funding for state and local governments. A further $49 billion for the expansion of COVID-19 testing and research and $14 billion for vaccine distribution are also in the relief package. Nick Note: This is the most significant event of our life time. The greatest transfer of wealth to the masses. And it will bring us the greatest stock market rally ever. Unfortunately this will end and the greatest stock market wipe out EVER. For now lets ride the rocket. The trick will be to know when to bail! Remember the old story if you distribute the wealth of the world equally in a few year the poor would be poor again and the wealthy would have all the money back. That describes exactly what will happen. The masses won the lottery in this coming stock market rally… And they will give it all back

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US markets rise further, S&P 500 at record high

Major stock indexes in the United States continued to rise on Thursday, propelled by COVID-19 vaccine-related optimism and better-than-expected economic data. The S&P 500 and the Dow indexes hit all-time highs as worries about rising inflation subsided, while a bigger-than-expected fall in weekly jobless claims reinforced expectations of a labor market recovery. Mega-cap stocks Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Facebook Inc and Tesla Inc gained between 2.2% and 3.6%, recouping losses from a recent pullback and helping the benchmark S&P 500 surpass its Feb. 16 peak of 3,950.43. The blue-chip Dow hit an all-time high for the fourth straight session, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is now about 5% below its Feb. 12 record close after slumping as much as 12% from that level last week. Fewer than expected Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week as an improving public health environment allows more segments of the economy to reopen. “The drop in jobless claims is another win for the week, and a solid sign that we’re making some strides toward pre-pandemic life,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*TRADE Financial. The benchmark Treasury yields were at 1.53% but below 1.6% ahead of an auction of U.S. 30-year debt later in the day. A weak seven-year auction in … The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 1.04% higher at 11:22 am ET, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 2.34% at the same time. The S&P 500 surpassed its previous peak, growing 1.39% Nick Note: You want to be in this game