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The S&P 500 will jump another 8% – but looming risks could spark a sudden pullback, RBC says

  • RBC Capital expects the S&P 500 to climb 8% to 4,100 through 2021 as the US economy rebounds.
  • The benchmark will reach new records despite a brief stumble that’s likely to arrive in the first half of the year, the firm’s analysts said.
  • Market leadership will continue to shift from large-caps and growth stocks to value and cyclical names, they added.

Strategists led by Lori Calvasina set their 2021 target for the benchmark index at 4,100, implying a 7.9% climb for the S&P 500’s Tuesday closing level. Earnings are expected to rebound by 23% in 2021 and another 8% in 2022 as the US recovers from the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout. But such highs will likely only come after a brief stumble, according to the team. RBC expects a “period of consolidation” to drag on US equities before the market stages its next climb, with the dip likely arriving in the first half of the year. “It could be as mild as a mid-single-digit decline from the recent highs (taking the S&P 500 to about 3,600) or as deep as a drop in the mid-teens (about 3,200),” RBC’s team said in a note to clients. The S&P 500 stood at 3,848.94 as of 2:20 p.m. ET Wednesday, up 2.5% year-to-date. Stocks are sitting at record highs, but some analysts have raised concerns around whether the market is irrationally looking through significant risks. Indicators including retail sales and weekly jobless claims worsened in recent weeks, and COVID-19 cases continue to climb across the country. Vaccination and the chances of a Biden-backed stimulus bill have fueled the market’s latest gains, but herd immunity isn’t likely to be reached for months. Looking past the near-term, RBC named higher corporate taxes, tech-sector regulation, and a pullback of Federal Reserve support as other risks to its bullish outlook. Nick Note: the video and commentary is mostly bullshit. But they are starting to get high altitude sickness. Bubble markets end when they achieve exuberance. We are not their yet but getting close. I love the idea they are funding us to short the shit out of this insanity. But you need to understand this is not science but a trading art form. We may have to prob the downside several times before we catch the crash……

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Did Trump Secretly Pardon Himself and His Family?

Trump Pardon

Now former President Trump has gone into retirement in Florida there is speculation that he might have secretly pardoned himself and his family members.

The flurry of pardons had some breathing a sigh of relief that Trump hadn’t included himself in this latest batch, and while others noted that the day was still young, MSNBC host and Congress Nerd Lawrence O’Donnell raised another concern.

“Don’t trust the list,” O’Donnell wrote. “Trump doesn’t have to reveal the names of anyone he pardons. Trump can issue SECRET PARDONS. Trump can pardon himself & his family and keep that secret until they are charged with federal crimes.”

Former Acting Solicitor General and MSNBC analyst Neal Katyal threw some cold water on the idea, writing “I think secret pardons are constitutionally dubious (since the whole reason the pardon power is virtually unlimited is that Presidents are publicly accountable for them). But here it doesn’t matter, even if Trump tried secret pardons, Biden could make them public the next day.”I guess it is a waiting game to see what comes out of this. Nick Note: For a fact Trump issued pocket Pardons for himself, family and friends to use like poker chips.The documents were signed, sealed, delivered and witnessed. Pretty slick…A stack of get out of jail cards!

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US closes at record highs after Biden assumes presidency

New York: Wall Street greeted new US President Joe Biden by climbing even higher on Wednesday (Jan 20), closing at records amid promises of big economic stimulus and relief that the inauguration was uneventful.

All three major indices ended at all-time highs after Biden was inaugurated as the 46th president of the United States in a peaceful ceremony just two weeks after supporters of former president Donald Trump stormed the US Capitol in an effort to overturn the results of the November election.

The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index led the charge, jumping 2 per cent to end the day at 13,457.25, fuelled in part by a huge gain in Netflix shares following a strong earnings report. The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8 per cent to close at 31,188.38, while the broad-based S&P 500 climbed 1.4 per cent to 3,851.85. Biden and his team have championed an aggressive economic relief package, winning kudos from investors eager to see the US economy rebound. “In general, this is a market that’s growing optimistic that increased fiscal spending will boost the economy and lead to earnings growth,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. Investors were among those sighing in relief that worries over fresh civil unrest did not come to pass, as the transition of power took place in the nation’s capital that looked more like a military stronghold. “We all hoped for a peaceful transition of power and we got it,” Hogan said. Among individual companies, Netflix shot up 16.9 per cent after it reported better-than-expected subscriber growth in the past quarter. The streaming entertainment leader added about 8.5 million paid subscribers in the quarter to reach 203 million despite recent price hikes, its quarterly earning update showed. Other large technology companies also had a winning session, with Apple ending up 3.3 per cent, Amazon up 4.6 per cent, Google-parent Alphabet hitting a record high after gaining 5.6 per cent and Facebook rising 2.4 per cent. Nick Note: A coup is a terrible thing to lose. When you organize one please do not use fucks ups. Never wound a king……. No wonder Trumps never had a REAL moneymaking deal other then laundering money for the Russian mob.

 

 

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Variant might partially evade protection from vaccines or prior infection, early research suggests

(CNN)A new study suggests someone might be able to get infected with one of the new variants of the coronavirus even if they’ve had Covid-19 before or have been vaccinated. The variant was first spotted in South Africa in October and has now been found in more than a dozen countries.

“I think we should be alarmed,” said Penny Moore, associate professor at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa and the senior author of the study.
“Based on Penny’s data, it’s likely that the vaccine is going to be somewhat less effective, but how much less effective we don’t know,” said David Montefiori, a virologist at Duke University Medical Center. Montefiori added that this is the first study that gives him serious doubt about whether prior infection or a vaccine will protect against a new coronavirus variant. “This is the first time I’ve been concerned about a variant partially evading the immune response and partially evading the vaccine,” he said. Both experts emphasized that people should still get the vaccine. It’s extremely effective against other forms of the virus and they think it likely will still give some level of protection against the new variant as well. The study was posted on a pre-print server and has not been peer-reviewed and published in a medical journal. This is one of the first reports to look at the variant’s effect on antibody potency. Labs around the world are furiously studying the issue and expect to report results within the next few weeks.
“I worry desperately in the next six to 12 weeks we’re going to see a situation with this pandemic unlike anything we’ve seen yet to date. And that is really a challenge that I don’t think most people realize yet,” Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota and a member of President-elect Joe Biden’s Transition Covid-19 Advisory Board, told CNN’s New Day.

‘In the study, Moore and her colleagues took blood from 44 people who’d had Covid-19. Nearly all of their cases were confirmed to have occurred prior to September, which is before the variant was spotted in South Africa. The researchers then looked to see whether their antibodies would fight off the new variant. For about half of the 44 people, their antibodies were powerless against the new variant. “We saw a knockout,” Moore said. “It was a scary result.” For the other half, the antibody response was weakened, but not totally knocked out. The analysis showed that the strongest antibody response was from those who had suffered more severe cases of Covid-19, and therefore had developed a stronger antibody response after their illnesses. The culprits were mutations in two different parts of the spikes that sit atop the coronavirus. The vaccines work by targeting those spikes. “It was a two-armed escape from the immune system,” Moore said. Moore emphasized that these are results in the lab, and studies need to be done to see if people who’ve previously had Covid-19 get re-infected with the new variant. The antibody assays did not measure other immune responses, such as T-cell responses, that are generated by previous infections and vaccines. Moore’s team is now gathering blood from people who’ve been vaccinated to see if their antibodies can fight off the new variant. “I think the data on people with prior infection raises all kinds of red flags for the vaccines,” she said. “We have to test it to find out.” Montefiori, the Duke virologist, agrees. “I don’t have any reason to think the results with people who’ve been vaccinated will be any different than with the people who had prior infection,” For several reasons, Montefiori thinks the vaccine will likely take a hit — but probably not a huge one.First, the two vaccines authorized for use in the US work very well, so even if the new variant puts up a fight, the reduction in vaccine efficacy likely won’t be devastating.  “We have to remember, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 95% effective — that’s an extraordinary level of efficacy,” Montefiori said. “If it reduces to 90, 80, 70% effective, that is still very, very good and likely to have a major impact on the pandemic.” Also, while surveillance in South Africa shows the new variant is becoming the dominant variant in the country, Montefiori points out that it’s been found only in small numbers in 13 other countries. The UK, which has a very aggressive surveillance system, has found 45 people with the new variant, according to GISAID, an independent data-sharing initiative. Botswana has seen six cases; Japan has seen five; there have been four cases spotted in Germany; two each in France, Australia, Switzerland and Finland; and one each in Sweden, South Korea, Norway, Ireland, and the Netherlands. Also, getting vaccinated might trigger a stronger antibody response than infection. Monday, researchers at Sheba Medical Center in Israel announced that an analysis of blood from 102 hospital employees who’d received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine showed their mean antibody levels were higher than those found in people who’d recovered from severe Covid-19. That study has not been peer reviewed, published or posted online. “That’s very good news,” Moore said While scientists work out what effect the variant might have on the vaccine, experts advise that prevention, such as wearing a mask and social distancing, is the best course for bringing Covid-19 rates down — that and and getting a vaccine when you can. Nick Note: Despite the extreme optimism in the markets, Its definitely not time to break out the Champagne. In fact I predict shock in the next few months when the new strains far far more contagious go off like a hydrogen bomb dropped on Bikini Atoll. Get your vaccine and be prepared for a booster shot every 6 to 12 months. Do not let your guard down. Wear your Ugly mask, take you vitamins, filter your air, disinfect the crap out of everything and isolate as much as possible. And ride the wave to record new highs in the stock market. And be prepared for a 20% t0 30% “correction” in the coming reality check. The economy will not come out of this and no amount of stimulus will change the fact that another wave of even more severe lock downs are coming….. worldwide!

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Israeli Covid czar says first Pfizer jab not as effective as hoped and blames spike in cases on British strain

A medic collects a swab sample from a traveller at a booth at the COVID-19 coronavirus rapid testing centre in Israel's Ben-Gurion Airport  - AFP

Israel’s coronavirus czar has warned that the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine offers less protection than expected, as he blamed the country’s surge in Covid cases partly on the new British variant. Nachman Ash said many Israelis had caught Covid in between their first and second doses of the Pfizer vaccine, suggesting that the first jab is “less effective than we thought,” according to Army Radio. His remarks underline the importance of receiving a second vaccine dose, which according to recent studies is more than 90 per cent effective in protecting against coronavirus. Israel has already given the first of two jabs to nearly 30 per cent of the population and on Tuesday announced it would extend eligibility to those aged 40 and over. But Mr Ash is said to have warned at a cabinet meeting that a new strain of Covid originating in Britain was hampering efforts to tackle the pandemic, as it was responsible for nearly 40 per cent of new cases. It comes after two studies by Israeli healthcare providers found that the first dose of the vaccine reduced the risk of infection by between 30 and 60 per cent.  And according to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, a survey by the health ministry found that around six per cent of 189,000 citizens who had received the first jab tested positive for Covid within two weeks. It also stated that 69 people from the sample had tested positive for coronavirus after receiving their second dose of the vaccine. Another study of a hundred people in Israel found that 98 per cent were protected from the disease once the second dose was administered. That research, carried out by the Sheba Medical Center, also said that a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine significantly refused the risk of spreading the virus to others.

Global vaccine rollout - top 10
Global vaccine rollout – top 10

In Britain, there is a gap of up to 12 weeks between receiving the first and second dose, whereas the WHO recommends the second dose of Pfizer is administered within 21-28 days. Israeli health experts have stressed that it is too early to draw any concrete conclusions from the data. This week, Israel published a partially redacted copy of a deal with Pfizer which has secured a steady supply of vaccines in return for the country sharing its medical data. Under the terms of that deal, Israel is expected to provide weekly updates on the number of vaccinations carried out with a breakdown by age and gender, as well as some demographic details. It is hoped that the data will help other countries plan their own inoculation strategies and provide some of the first conclusions on the effectiveness of the vaccines. Though the deal with Pfizer says patients cannot be identified by the data, there are some concerns in Israel that it could breach privacy rules. Israel hopes to have vaccinated most of the population by the end of March, though officials say they are in a race against the country’s third wave of coronavirus. The country is currently in lockdown and on Monday reported a record daily infection rate of 10,000 cases, the highest rate in Israel since the start of the pandemic.

 

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Yellen: Will work overtime for second relief package

WASHINGTON — (AP) — Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden’s choice as Treasury secretary, said Tuesday that the incoming administration would focus on winning quick passage of its $1.9 trillion pandemic relief plan, rejecting Republican arguments that the measure is too big given the size of U.S. budget deficits. “More must be done,” Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee during her confirmation hearing. “Without further action, we risk a longer, more painful recession now — and long-term scarring of the economy later.” Democrats voiced support for the Biden proposal while Republicans questioned spending nearly $2 trillion more on top of nearly $3 trillion that Congress passed in various packages last year.Republicans questioned elements of the Biden proposal such as providing an additional $1,400 stimulus check to individuals earning less than $75,000. They also objected to the inclusion of such long-term Democratic goals as boosting the minimum wage to $15 per hour. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., said that the push for a higher minimum wage comes at a time when thousands of small businesses like restaurants have gone out of business, and that it would lead to more job losses. Yellen said, however, that the increase in the minimum wage would help millions of frontline American workers who are risking their lives to keep their communities functioning and often working two jobs to put food on the table. “They are struggling to get by and raising the minimum wage would help these workers,” she said. Despite policy differences, Yellen, who would be the first woman to be Treasury secretary after being the first woman to be chair of the Federal Reserve, is expected to win quick Senate confirmation. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, who will become chairman when Democrats take over the Senate, said it was his hope that Yellen could be confirmed by the full Senate as soon as Thursday. Biden last week unveiled a $1.9 trillion relief plan that would provide more aid to American families and businesses and more support for vaccine production and distribution as well as providing support for states and localities to avoid layoffs of teachers and first responders. Many Republicans raised the soaring budget deficits as a reason to be cautious in passing further relief. Last year, the budget deficit climbed to a record $3.1 trillion. Yellen said that she and Biden were aware of the country’s rising debt burden but felt fighting the pandemic-recession was more important currently.

“Right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big,” she said. “In the long run, I believe the benefits will far outweigh the costs, especially if we care about helping people who have been struggling for a very long time.”

Yellen was nominated to be chair of the Fed by Barack Obama and she stepped down in February 2018 after President Donald Trump decided not to nominate her for a second four-year term. Since leaving the Fed, Yellen has been a distinguished researcher at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. Yellen’s Treasury nomination was supported in a letter from eight previous Treasury secretaries serving both Republican and Democratic administrations. Nick Note: their will be humungus stimulus packages and happy checks….. For sure with out a doubt!

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McConnell says Trump provoked January 6 riot

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., placed blame on President Trump for the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6 that left five people dead, including a Capitol police officer. McConnell addressed the insurrection during a floor speech Tuesday afternoon and said Trump “provoked” the mob that tried to use “fear and violence” to stop the Joint Session of Congress from certifying President-elect Joe Biden’s win. “The mob was fed lies,” McConnell said. “They were provoked by the president and other powerful people.

“…But we pressed on. We stood together and said an angry mob would not get veto power over the rule of law in our nation, not even for one night.”

McConnell’s comments came a week after the House voted to impeach Trump for “incitement of insurrection.” Since his election defeat, Trump has refused to concede, claimed he won the election in a landslide and spread allegations of extensive election fraud despite courts repeatedly rejecting his claims.

The culmination of his efforts to stop Biden from taking office came when he called his supporters to Washington on Jan. 6 and whipped up the crowd before they marched to the Capitol to try to stop Congress from certifying Biden’s win.

The insurrection forced Congress to abruptly recess and take shelter. Yet the lawmakers later reconvened and certified Biden’s victory — despite some GOP objections, led by Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Josh Hawley of Missouri.

“We certified the people’s choice for their 46th president,” McConnell said. “Tomorrow President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect [Kamala] Harris will be sworn in. We’ll have a safe and successful inaugural. McConnell is seen as the lynchpin to any chance Trump would be convicted in the Senate. Unlike some of his GOP colleagues, McConnell has not rejected impeachment outright and said he’d carefully weigh the evidence during a trial. If McConnell joins with Democrats in convicting Trump, he may clear the way for 16 other Republicans to join him to reach the two-thirds vote threshold. McConnell and GOP Senate leadership have not been whipping their caucus to hold the line and protect Trump. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, told reporters Tuesday that impeachment will be a “vote of conscience” for the senators.  Once House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., sends over the article of impeachment to the Senate, it would trigger a trial that would likely slow down the Senate’s business of confirming Biden’s incoming Cabinet. Some GOP senators — including Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Joni Ernst of Iowa — have argued it could be unconstitutional to even hold a trial for Trump when he’s out of office, though other legal scholars disagree.    Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., the incoming majority leader is expected to meet with McConnell this afternoon to discuss their new power-sharing agreement and how to proceed on impeachment. Democrats will hold a tie-breaking majority Wednesday afternoon when the Biden Administration takes over and three new Democratic senators are set to be sworn-in: Georgia Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock and California’s Alex Padilla, who will succeed Harris. Schumer said Tuesday there will be a Senate impeachment trial. And if Trump is convicted, the Senate will take a vote to bar him from running for office ever again.

“Once he leaves office, do we really expect him to change his tune and accept the truth?” Schumer said. “Of course not. He will continue spreading lies about the election and stoking the grievances of his most radical supporters. Using the prospect of a future presidential run to poison the public arena.”

“Donald Trump should not be eligible to run for office ever again,” Schumer added. “All of us want to put this awful chapter in our nation’s history behind us.”  Nick Note: you win a few you lose a few. Trump bought into his bullshit. If he took the high road he could have been back in the game. He has flamed out. That stunt he pulled was about as stupid as it get…..

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25,000 National Guard troops deployed to Capitol as Biden inauguration looms

25K National Guard troops called to DC ahead of Biden Inauguration

As President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration nears, officials have boosted the number of National Guard members deployed in Washington, D.C., to 25,000 — an increase of 25 percent. Guard members have fanned out across the U.S. Capitol lawn, inside the building and in surrounding areas of D.C. for days. It’s an unprecedented security force, deemed necessary in the wake of a deadly riot at the Capitol and continuing threats of domestic terrorism. At least 7,000 National Guard troops from dozens of states are already on the ground in the nation’s capital, with more expected to arrive in coming days at the request of the Secret Service, said Army Gen. Daniel Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau. The military security force will be more than three times the total number of U.S. troops currently deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, reflecting heightened concerns after supporters of President Trump stormed the Capitol while lawmakers were certifying his loss in the Nov. 3 presidential election. Biden’s inauguration ceremony is slated to take place outside the Capitol on Wednesday. While there will not be the usual throngs of spectators, security officials from multiple law enforcement agencies are worried about online “chatter” that the FBI said points to the possibility of further violence from Trump supporters who believe, falsely, that the election was “stolen.” City officials are erecting a perimeter throughout downtown and putting up barriers around the White House, National Mall and Capitol. In order to travel through the perimeter, people will need to provide proof of essential purpose. Nick Note: To give you a perspective the Normandy D day invasion involved the landing of 24,000 American, British, and Canadian airborne troops 

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Parler partially reappears with support from Russian technology firm

Reuters) – Parler, a social media website and app popular with the American far right, has partially returned online with the help of a Russian-owned technology company. Parler vanished from the internet when dropped by Amazon Inc’s hosting arm and other partners for poor moderation after its users called for violence and posted videos glorifying the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. On Monday, Parler’s website was reachable again, though only with a message from its chief executive saying he was working to restore functionality. The internet protocol address it used is owned by DDos-Guard, which is controlled by two Russian men and provides services including protection from distributed denial of service attacks, infrastructure expert Ronald Guilmette told Reuters. If the website is fully restored, Parler users would be able to see and post comments. Most users prefer the app, however, which remains banned from the official Apple Inc and Google stores. Parler CEO John Matze and representatives of DDoS-Guard did not reply to requests for comment. Last Wednesday, Matze told Reuters the company was in talks with multiple service providers but declined to elaborate. Nick Note: We are on dangerous ground here. Hate speech is still free speech and is protected. Who censors the censors. Since the bill of rights supports the overthrow (abolishment) of government under special conditions should it be censored?  “We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are … endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights…. That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men…. That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its Foundation on such Principles, and organizing its Powers in such Form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Where does it end? Let all ideas and opinions see the light of day no matter how abhorrent and let the people sort it out for themselves.

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Trump lifts COVID travel restrictions from EU, UK, Ireland and Brazil

  • Sources had told Reuters Donald Trump planned to rescind travel bans for most non-U.S. citizens recently in Brazil and much of Europe starting on January 26
  • But Biden’s team then said ‘we plan to strengthen public health measures’
  • The U.S. restrictions barring most visitors from Europe have been in place since mid-March, while the Brazilian entry ban was imposed in May
  • The Trump administration imposed the bans in a bid to contain COVID-19
  • Nearly all air travelers will be required to present a negative coronavirus test or proof of recovery from COVID-19 to enter the US starting on January 26

Joe Biden’s team on Monday quashed Donald Trump’s plan to lift the travel ban on visitors from the UK, Brazil and Europe, instead announcing they will strengthen border controls.  Officials had told Reuters the outgoing president, set to leave office Wednesday, had planned to remove the current restrictions starting on January 26.  In an order Trump wrote ‘this action is the best way to continue protecting Americans from COVID-19 while enabling travel to resume safely’.  But just 90 minutes later the president elect’s press secretary Jen Psaki had tweeted: ‘With the pandemic worsening, and more contagious variants emerging around the world, this is not the time to be lifting restrictions on international travel. ‘On the advice of our medical team, the Administration does not intend to lift these restrictions on 1/26. In fact, we plan to strengthen public health measures around international travel in order to further mitigate the spread of COVID-19.’  The current restrictions bar nearly all non-U.S. citizens who have been in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Ireland and the 26 countries of the Schengen area in Europe that allow travel across open borders within the last 14 days.Restrictions on travelers from Europe have been in place since mid-March; the Brazilian entry ban was imposed in May. The Trump administration imposed the bans in a bid to contain the coronavirus pandemic.  Under Trump’s plan the restrictions had been set to end the same day that new COVID-19 test requirements take effect requiring all international visitors to have a negative result. It was first reported in November that the administration had been considering lifting the restrictions, imposed early last year in response to the pandemic, after winning support from coronavirus task force members and public health officials. But new coronavirus variants have been found in both the UK and Brazil in recent weeks. The UK’s strain, B 1.1.7., has resulted in the country being forced back into strict lockdowns.  The CDC has already warned it could become dominant in the US by March, triggering massive surges in cases.  Joe Biden’s team on Monday quashed Donald Trump’s plan to lift travel ban on visitors from the UK, Brazil and Europe, instead announcing they will strengthen border restrictions  Officials had told Reuters the outgoing president, set to leave office Wednesday, had planned to remove restrictions starting on January 26. But just 90 minutes later the president elect’s press secretary Jen Psaki had tweeted. Nick Note: This is dumbest thing you could do right now. Is have those flying disease spreading and incubation tubes bring infected carriers who are still testing negative the highly contagious mutant strains of the coronavirus.