(Bloomberg) — The escalating pandemic is chipping away at the burst of vaccine optimism that propelled global stocks to a record.

Social distancing is being stepped up in the U.S., Europe and Asia, darkening the outlook for the global recovery and underlining the importance of policy support.

Against that backdrop, a public spat between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending facilities unnerved investors Friday, prompting a slide in U.S. stock futures.

Looking further out into next year, many strategists expect global stocks and Treasury yields to climb as promising vaccine candidates are rolled out — but few anticipate an easy return to normal. “While there is light at the end of the tunnel there is still a long, dark, scary tunnel to get through before we emerge,” said Benjamin Jones, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets in London. Signs of division between the Trump administration and the Fed over emergency lending facilities sent S&P 500 futures briefly tumbling Friday, showing how sensitive markets are to stimulus. Further delays in fresh U.S. fiscal relief would increase economic risks, said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. On one measure, the market is currently pricing a 3% implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next year, but some might argue it should be higher.

“More lockdowns look imminent, and it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine that the global economy is likely to dip deeper into recession,” said Eoin Murray, head of investment for international business at Federated Hermes Inc.

The 10-year Treasury yield failed to breach 1% as many expected following positive vaccine news. That’s an indication investors still see the need for low rates for a prolonged period as the pandemic delivers fresh economic blows. “A depressed path for U.S. short-term interest rates will act as an anchor on longer term Treasury yields,” Alpine Macro strategists wrote in a note.

Despite immediate concerns over fresh lockdowns, the prospect of vaccines being rolled out over 2021 continues to underpin a more bullish longer-term narrative.

Citigroup Inc.’s Global Risk Aversion Index, a combination of market indicators across asset classes and geographies, has fallen back into negative territory for the first time since the pandemic roiled markets. Nick Note: the election is still not settled business…. Trump got Mondays Michigan vote certification stopped. And he just might be able to get the Republicans that control most key state houses to nullify the elections… Its complicated but their is a  escape rout from defeat for Trump.. A very small one I admit but possible. The corona virus will kill a million people this winter and force more economic devastating lockdowns. Balance these incredible negatives including a double digit recession against the coming vaccines that will take a year or more to provide mass immunity if they work and provide ling term immunity. And the scale tips to a great big stock market plunge.

https://youtu.be/NHuuJboZ-I0

WASHINGTON (AP) — Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday he will not extend several emergency loan programs set up with the Federal Reserve, an action that could hamper the ability of the incoming Biden administration to gain important economic support from the central bank to deal with the ongoing pandemic.  The decision drew a terse rebuke from the Fed. The central bank said it “would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.”

But in a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Mnuchin said that the Fed’s corporate credit, municipal lending and Main Street Lending programs would not be renewed when they expire on Dec. 31.

Under law, the loan facilities required the support of the Treasury Department, which serves as a backstop for the initial losses the programs might incur.

Mnuchin said that he is requesting that the Fed return to Treasury the unused funds appropriated by Congress for operation of the programs.

He said this would allow Congress to re-appropriate $455 billion to other coronavirus programs. Republicans and Democrats have been deadlocked for months on approval of another round of coronavirus support measures. In public remarks Tuesday, Powell made clear that he hoped that the loan programs would remain in effect for the foreseeable future. “When the right time comes, and I don’t think that time is yet, or very soon, we’ll put those tools away,” he said in an online discussion with a San Francisco-based business group. The future of the Main Street and Municipal Lending programs has taken on greater importance with President-elect Joe Biden’s victory. Many progressive economists have argued that a Democratic-led Treasury could support the Fed taking on more risk and making more loans to small and mid-sized businesses and cash-strapped cities under these programs. That would provide at least one avenue for the Biden administration to provide stimulus without going through Congress. Neither program has lived up to its potential so far, with the Municipal Lending program making just one loan, while the Main Street program has made loans totaling around $4 billion to about 400 companies.

Mnuchin’s move comes as the resurgent virus and slowing consumer spending, as well as colder weather that will shut down outdoor dining, will cause more small and mid-sized businesses to struggle with lower revenue and potentially close.

However, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania said in a statement that he approved of Mnuchin’s decision. “Congress’ intent was clear: These facilities were to be temporary, to provide liquidity and to cease operations by the end of 2020,” Toomey, a member of the Senate Finance Committee, said. ”With liquidity restored, they should expire, as Congress intended and the law requires, by Dec. 31, 2020.” Nick Note: THis is a BIG shit. The stock market has just lost its life line. Now add the fact that the economy is sucking shut you can see the slow motion train wreck. This is a fucking disaster for peoples health and wealth. And for us because we know how to isolate, disinfect and filter our air….. And we know how to cash in BIG time.

PEOPLE are most likely to catch the coronavirus at the supermarket, official data has revealed.

Supermarkets have remained open during both national lockdowns and new data collated by Public Health England (PHE) from the NHS Test and Trace App has revealed that shops are the most frequent Covid exposure setting.

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PHE analysed data of people who contracted the virus between November 9 and November 15. They looked at the contacts of those who had caught the virus and retraced the steps of 128,808 people who tested positive. Supermarkets were the most common location of people who reported to have tested positive for the virus. Of those who tested positive, it was found that 18.3 per cent had visited a supermarket. At the start of the pandemic large queues were seen outside of supermarkets as people lined up to buy essentials. Shops had limited the amount of people inside as they tried to maintain social distancing measures. Shoppers in supermarkets also have to wear face masks when buying their goods – unless they are exempt under national guidelines. In September supermarket bosses urged customers to not panic buy products after shelves were left empty during the first wave of the pandemic in the spring.

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Both primary and secondary schools reopened in September after kids were kept off school during the first national lockdown.

The data found that secondary schools were the second place where transmission was highest, followed by primary schools. It was revealed that 12.7 per cent of people who tested positive had attended secondary school and 10.1 per cent had attended a primary school. This could be pupils attending the school, teachers or other staff who work at schools, parents at the school gates may have also been at risk of catching the virus. The government vowed to keep schools open and said the education of kids was a priority. In the last week, 124 clusters of the coronavirus have been reported in English secondary schools.

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Public Health England used data from NHS Track and Trace to find out the common places people had visited who had tested positive for Covid-19.

In total, there have been 822 reported clusters of the coronavirus in English secondary schools. In primary schools there has been a total of 732 clusters reported. Hull in East Yorkshire is currently one of the most infected areas in the country and it was this week reported that schools in the area are on the brink of collapse as thousands of secondary school pupils have been forced to self isolate. This week Chris Long, the Hull University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust chief executive, has said that a stiffer lockdown is needed to tackle growing cases in the area. He said schools might have to be closed in the area in order to curb transmission. Hospitals, colleges, care homes and warehouses all followed as the places where transmission was highest. Surprisingly, just 3.6 per cent of people who had tested positive had been in a hospital setting – this could include patients, doctors and nurses, visitors to the hospital or other hospital staff members. Care homes were also found to have a lower transmission rate and 2.8 per cent of people who tested positive said they had been at a care home. Unlike secondary and primary schools, just 2.4 per cent of people who said they had been at a college had tested positive for the virus. During the pandemic, warehouses have also been a place where many outbreaks have occurred due to close working conditions.

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The data found that 2.2 per cent of people who had been at a warehouse had tested positive for the coronavirus. In July there had been an outbreak at an Iceland distribution centre in Swindon and just last month 174 workers in Norfolk were struck down at a meat factory after an outbreak. The data also found that transmission was highest in households and also revealed that infections rates could be levelling off in some parts of the country.