The stock market’s ‘presidential predictor’ is forecasting a Biden victory

The stock market’s Friday fall spells trouble for President Donald Trump’s re-election hopes. The “Presidential Predictor,” popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 index’s SPX, -1.21% presidential election-year performance from July 31 to Oct. 31. Going back to 1944, it’s found that a positive move over that period usually corresponds to a presidential victory by the incumbent party, while a negative move signals a loss (see chart below).

CFRA

A late bounce trimmed a decline for the S&P 500 on Friday, the last trading day of October, but it wasn’t enough. The index finished the day down 40.15 points, or 1.2%, to close at 3,269.96, leaving it below the July 31 close at 3,271.12. “The Presidential Predictor implies, but does not guarantee, a Biden victory,” Stovall said, in an email, after the closing bell. Polls show Democratic challenger Joe Biden leading Trump nationwide, though his advantage has narrowed in recent weeks. Biden is also seen ahead in key battleground states, though strategists see some scope for Trump to pull out an Electoral College victory, but his path appears more difficult than in 2016. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls on Friday showed Biden with a 7.8 percentage point lead over Trump. Fears of a contested election outcome, in which results aren’t clear for days or even weeks amid legal and political wrangling have been cited as a big worry for investors.

The stock-market metric doesn’t have a perfect record. It failed to call the correct outcome in 1956, when Republican President Dwight Eisenhower defeated Democratic challenger Adlai Stevenson despite a 7.7% fall for the index in the three-month period.

The indicator twice failed to correctly predict defeat for the incumbent party — in 1968, when Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey; and 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic President Jimmy Carter. All three instances in which the predictor failed were accompanied by extraordinary geopolitical factors, Stovall noted. The 1956 stock-market weakness was tied to the Suez Crisis, following Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s decision to nationalize the Suez Canal, and the Hungarian Uprising, which was crushed by Soviet troops, amplifying Cold War tensions. The 1968 election, despite the buoyant stock market, was dominated by the Vietnam War, while the Iran hostage crisis was a key issue in the 1980 election. This time around, the market’s weakness in the run-up to the vote “is being driven by the renewed surge in COVID-19 and what it portends for future GDP/EPS growth,” Stovall said, referring to gross domestic product and earnings per share. The S&P 500 traded at a record on Sept. 2, but subsequently pulled back. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.59% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.45% saw their biggest weekly declines since March. Along the same concept, Ryan Detrick, chief financial markets strategist at LPL Financial, has look backed at the market’s performance in the three month period ending on Election Day going back to 1928. That period this year runs from Aug. 3 to Nov. 3. It’s also on track to signal a Biden victory. The S&P 500 would need to finish above the Aug. 3 close of 3,294.61 to turn it in favor of Trump. Nick Note: This is a very complicated matrix. That’s OK i do complicated. As we move closer to the election Trump could win the election day tallies. But this election could be decided by the mail in votes whose tallies will come later. Biden had it won. If he loses its because he overestimated the ability of the mail in voters to fill in the ballot right. Several little birdies have told me their are a large percentage of the mail in ballots that will be disqualified because of such things as failing to sign the ballot or signature discrepancies. I have LOTS of experience of getting people to fill in forms. From brokerage accounts, Hedge funds and trust forms. Reality is over 25% of people get them wrong. If that is the case enough of Biden’s mail in ballots will be legally disqualified. He may have handed Trump a win!

Trump changes election night plans, cancels party at Trump International: report

President Trump has reportedly called off plans to host an election night event at Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C., a person familiar with the plans told The New York Times.  The source told the Times that Trump will instead likely remain at the White House on Nov. 3.  The president’s son Eric Trump in an interview on Fox News later on Friday morning said the party may be moved. “We’re thinking about moving it, actually, over to the White House. we are looking at that right now. it’s going to be a great night,” said Eric Trump. The Trump campaign last weekend sent fundraiser emails to donors announcing a drawing that would give one winner, along with a guest, the chance to be flown to the nation’s capital, where they would stay for free and attend the Nov. 3 party at Trump International as VIPs.  “November 3rd will go down in history as the night we won FOUR MORE YEARS,” the email read. “It will be absolutely EPIC, and the only thing that could make it better is having YOU there.” At a press conference Monday, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) said she was not aware at the time of party preparations at Trump International, which Washingtonian reported is sold out for election night.  D.C.’s coronavirus regulations currently restrict events to a maximum capacity of 50 people, including all attendees and staff. Trump is trailing Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in national polls, although the race is much closer in several key battleground states.  The latest Harvard CAPS-Harris survey of likely voters found Biden at 54 percent and Trump at 46 percent, with 57 percent of independents supporting the Democratic nominee. A Hill-Harris poll released Thursday found Biden leading Trump by 3 percentage points in the swing state of Florida, while 51 percent of those surveyed in the key state of Pennsylvania backed Biden and 46 percent supported Trump.  In North Carolina, the same poll showed the candidates are neck-and- neck, with Biden and Trump gaining 49 percent and 48 percent support, respectively. Nick Note: If Trump loses he does not want to have a Hillary moment when she did a Its MyParty and I’ll Cry IF i Want to when she lost to Trump. His words says he is winning his actions say he is concerned if he loses. The fat lady has not sung yet. He may still pull a rabbit out of his hat!

US sees record 88,521 new daily virus cases

 

The U.S. has reported a record-breaking number of new coronavirus cases, continuing an alarming surge and stoking concerns from health experts that the nation could be in for a difficult winter. The country reported 83,757 new Covid-19 cases on Friday, passing the last record of roughly 77,300 cases seen on July 16 as the U.S. grappled with outbreaks in Sun Belt states, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. On Saturday, the U.S. reported another 83,718 new coronavirus cases. “I think we’re in for a very hard stretch here,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former U.S. Food and Drug Administration commissioner, told CNBC on Friday evening. “I think the winter is going to be very difficult.”

Chart showing daily new coronavirus cases in the U.S. with data through October 24, 2020.

Coronavirus cases grew by 5% or more over the past week in 37 states as of Friday, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data that uses a weekly average to smooth out fluctuations in daily reporting. Some states, like California and Alabama, have been working through a backlog of tests that were added to Friday’s count, pushing the nation’s total higher, according to their data dashboards. However, the nation is now reporting roughly 63,200 daily new cases based on a weekly average, a more than 14% increase compared with a week ago. While Covid-19 testing is up nearly 13% from Oct. 1, new cases have risen at a much faster rate. The seven-day average of new infections is up 51% over that same period, according to Johns Hopkins data. “I think we’re going to bear a lot more infection … and the health-care system is going to have to bear the brunt of this burden, because I don’t think you have the popular will for stay-at-home orders or broad mitigation,” Gottlieb said, adding that the virus’ spread would slow “if everyone would just wear masks.” The recent surge is a “distressing trend” that is likely due to “smaller, more intimate gatherings of family, friends and neighbors” that are moving indoors as the weather cools, Jay Butler, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s deputy director for infectious diseases, told reporters on a conference call Wednesday. The outbreaks are building throughout the country with particular areas of concern in the Midwest, Butler said. As of Friday, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Wisconsin continue to report the highest number of new cases per capita.

Chart showing daily new coronavirus cases per capita in U.S. states with data as of October 23, 2020.

The increase in cases in several states are leading to more hospitalizations and will ultimately lead to more deaths, White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told MSNBC’s Chuck Todd on Friday. Thirteen states reached record high hospitalizations on Friday, based on a weekly average. Many of them are in the West and Midwest, including Iowa, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming, according to a CNBC analysis of Covid Tracking Project data. Coronavirus deaths have remained relatively flat in the U.S., though health experts warn fatalities typically lag infections by a few weeks. “When you enter the season of the cooler months of the fall and the colder months of the winter, where a lot of activity, out of necessity, is going to be inside as opposed to outside, that’s a difficult and challenging situation to be in because you have a couple of factors against you,” Fauci said.

Chart showing daily new coronavirus cases in the U.S. with data through October 24, 2020.

Germany adds record 18,681 COVID cases, 77 deaths

Another 77 deaths were reported in the past day

Germany
That brings the total number of confirmed cases to just shy of 500,000 with over 130,000 active cases seen across the country as of yesterday. Meanwhile, the 77 deaths today brings the total tally on that front to 10,349 persons. There are now 314/412 – an increase of 16 – districts in Germany deemed as ‘high risk’. German chancellor Merkel yesterday expressed concerns surrounding healthcare capacity in the country, and RKI reports that there are 1,696 coronavirus patients in intensive care beds as of its latest detailed report yesterday. That figure is more than double what it was 2 weeks ago on 15 October i.e. 655 patients.

 The DIVI registry shows that there are still 7,559 available intensive care beds across the country, but the fear is that the pace in which the virus is spreading will start to push that to the limit in just a matter of weeks if not months.  modified coronavirus is a killer. Nick Note:  I spent a life time crunching numbers. I got to tell you this NEW genetically modified (in my opinion) is super infectious and a killer. No need to panic we know what to do. I sent you a email with a link to recommended vitamins. We have engaged Top scientists  in the vitamin field to make us a properly combined multivitamin. Lead time 7 weeks. I am planning on sending you a complementary 1 months supply.  Our high spec P3 Nanofilter is in production and the second shipment is hung up in Customs. They they claim it is for  military use in Biolabs (and they are right because of the ULPA U15 medium we use) But let me shimmy shimmy and shake them lose. We are in the engineering phase of using these clean room biolab filter material for your forced aircon and furnace systems. We have designed them to be a direst replace of  the SICK JOKE filters they supply. And the secondary crap being sold by the know nothings. You will simply leave the fan on to filter the air in your house. For those of you that do not have a forced air system we have designed a stand alone SOPHISTICATED 8 way filtration system using the ULPA glass medium biolab filter material. And it also has a ozone generator. By doing the final assembly in the US i can get around the military top secret technology embargo on the export to the US side. We will not be able to ship to California.

As Election Day nears, Trump ponders the prospect of defeat

https://youtu.be/WBtTtQubkCQ
Trailing in the polls and with little time left to change the trajectory or closing themes of the presidential race, President Donald Trump has spent the final days of the campaign complaining that the coronavirus crisis is getting too much coverage – and openly musing about losing. Trump has publicly lamented about what a loss would mean, spoken longingly of riding off into the sunset and made unsubstantiated claims that voter fraud could cost him the election. He has sarcastically threatened to fire state officials if he doesn’t win and excoriated his rival Joe Biden as someone it would be particularly embarrassing to lose to. “If I lose, I will have lost to the worst candidate, the worst candidate in the history of presidential politics,” Trump said at an Oct. 17 campaign rally in Janesville, Wis. “If I lose, what do I do? I’d rather run against somebody who’s extraordinarily talented, at least, this way I can go and lead my life.” The president, who said at the same rally that “we’re not going to lose, we’re going to win,” has certainly not abandoned his showman’s approach to the campaign trail. But his unscripted remarks bemoaning a potential loss – and preemptively explaining why he might suffer one – offer a window into his mind-set as he barnstorms the country in an attempt to keep himself from becoming the one thing he so derisively despises: a loser. Trump has told rallygoers he had the presidential race won until the pandemic hit, and he has accused media outlets of focusing on the ongoing health crisis to hurt him politically. “Covid, Covid, Covid is the unified chant of the Fake News Lamestream Media,” he tweeted Wednesday. “They will talk about nothing else until November 4th., when the Election will be (hopefully!) over. Then the talk will be how low the death rate is, plenty of hospital rooms, & many tests of young people.” Trump has previously complained that Biden could win the race and then receive the benefit of glowing media coverage for overseeing the implementation of Trump administration policies on the coronavirus and other issues. The president’s comments reflect his long-running failure to shift the nation’s focus from the rapidly worsening pandemic in recent months. As he has tried to build his campaign on other themes – including cracking down on racial-justice protests, making unsubstantiated corruption allegations against Biden and attacking the former vice president over energy policy – the coronavirus has continued to dominate American lives and news headlines. His critics say Trump’s own inconsistent handling of the pandemic is one of the main reasons it has remained a key issue in the campaign for several months. With Election Day approaching, the virus is surging across the country, with record cases in recent days and growing hospitalizations and deaths. More than 227,000 Americans have died. Trump’s own hospitalization earlier this month after he was infected not only took him off the campaign trail for several days but also led more Americans to believe he was not taking the deadly virus seriously enough, polls show. Despite spending four days at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., Trump quickly returned to the campaign trail and continued holding the kind of mass gatherings that his own health officials have described as “superspreader” events. He has also attacked scientists and journalists for focusing on the deadly virus. Trump has falsely called media reporting on the pandemic an effort “to change our great early election numbers” and said it “should be an election-law violation.” The rallies have themselves become a symbol of his “reckless” approach to governing, said Guy Cecil, who leads Priorities USA, a liberal group that has blanketed the airwaves with advertisements against Trump on the pandemic. “He’s making people less favorable and less open to voting for him,” Cecil said Wednesday. “He is actually hurting himself by traveling around the country holding these rallies.” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh attacked public polls showing Trump behind Biden and predicted victory. “The mainstream media has spent the last four years trying to destroy and defeat President Trump, so no one should put any stock in polls paid for by these same news organizations,” Murtaugh said in a statement Wednesday. “We know where he stands in the states that will decide this election and we are confident in his reelection.” Biden, who has eschewed large rallies for smaller events, has sought to contrast his approach to the pandemic with Trump’s. During a speech Wednesday in Wilmington, Del., Biden referenced a Trump rally in Omaha at which thousands of supporters were left stranded waiting for buses in near-freezing weather. He called it “an image that captures President Trump’s whole approach to this crisis.” “He gets his photo op, and then he gets out,” Biden said. “He leaves everyone else to suffer the consequences of his failure to make a responsible plan. It seems like he just doesn’t care much about it. And the longer he’s in charge, the more reckless he gets.” Trump has talked about the virus as something that has upended his own political fortunes, while downplaying its impact on the country. At packed rallies in which few people wear masks, he has repeatedly claimed the United States was “rounding the turn” on the pandemic – despite evidence to the contrary. At his rallies, the president speaks more about the political ramifications of the pandemic than about its devastating impact on millions of Americans. “You know, until the plague came in from China, I didn’t even have a race,” he said Tuesday at a rally in West Salem, Wis., describing the election as a choice between a “Trump boom and a Biden lockdown.” But parts of Wisconsin are already facing the prospect of shutting down as the virus circulates at record levels. On the day of Trump’s visit, Wisconsin recorded 71 covid-19 deaths, the most of any day since the beginning of the pandemic. The following day, the University of Wisconsin announced it was canceling football-related activities for at least seven days because of an outbreak among students. Trump’s approach may end up hurting him politically in a key state, said David Wasserman, the House editor for the Cook Political Report. “The president’s decision to downplay the severity of COVID at multiple late October rallies in Wisconsin might be the biggest display of tone-deafness I’ve ever seen, and I cover hundreds of campaigns a cycle,” Wasserman wrote Tuesday on Twitter.  Nick Note: My analysis is Trump will lose. And by a significant majority voting for Biden that any attempts to contest the election will be futile. My sniff is if trump loses by a landslide he WILL NOT CONTEST THE ELECTION. With this view in mind I have formulated our election trade strategy. I also considered the recent market plunge.  I would like to point out I was wrong about the last election. BUT i am in the guessing business and I am a betting man. When the history of the Trump presidency is written it will be the surge in the coronavirus infections and deaths and his near death Coronavirus experience. The surge in infections and deaths is his Waterloo.

Continue reading “As Election Day nears, Trump ponders the prospect of defeat”

US Q3 GDP growth at all-time high of 33.1%

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest rate since records began in the third quarter, reversing much – but by no means all – of the output lost in the second quarter under the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The Commerce Department said gross domestic product grew at an annualized 33.1% in the quarter, after contracting by 31% in the second quarter. Analysts had expected an expansion of 31.9%. U.S. stock futures turned positive on the news, with the Dow 30 futures contract rising 110 points in response, erasing earlier losses for the session. The dollar also strengthened to $1.1706 against the euro, albeit the latter was hit by the European Central Bank signaling after its council meeting that it will likely ease monetary policy again in December. The figures, while spectacular, are essentially backward-looking and exaggerated by the habit of annualizing GDP data.  They reflect the reopening of many businesses in the summer after government-mandated stay-at-home orders had crippled both manufacturing and services output in the spring. “The general population judge living standards by their personal experience, not abstract concepts,” said Paul Donovan, chief economist with UBS Global Wealth Management, in a morning podcast. An arguably better indication of current developments in the economy came from the weekly jobless claims numbers, which were released at the same time. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell by more than expected to their lowest since March, at 751,000, while continuing claims fell to 7.756 million. Nick Note: you cannot fall off the basement floor.  It is obvious the masses will not tolerate another total national lock down. And its not the way to do it. Isolate the outbreaks, practice contact tracing. You cannot preform brain surgery with a machete. Reality is high risk people like baby boomers need to isolate as much as possible. And lose the toilet paper masks. Go to a nanofilter and you go a long way to protecting yourself. Disinfect and Filter you in house air with a clean room, biolab filter system. As a point in fact we have the technology to turn your forced air system into a viral filter. And if you do not have forced air we will soon be introducing room air filter systems. We are negotiating with manufactures as we speak…..

All French regions placed on high virus alert – Macron

In a stark TV address to the nation, the French President warned: “The virus is circulating in France at a speed that even the most pessimistic forecasts had not anticipated.”We are all overwhelmed by a second wave which we know will arguably be tougher and more deadly than the first.”The new lockdown, which will run until December 1, will be reviewed every two weeks. It comes after 527 more deaths were recorded yesterday in France, the highest daily death toll since April, with 33,417 new confirmed cases in 24 hours. Under France’s new measures visits to care homes – which were banned during the country’s previous two-month lockdown – will still be allowed.

The virus is circulating in France at a speed that even the most pessimistic forecasts had not anticipated Emmanuel Macron

Mr Macron added: “If we do not put a brutal brake on contamination today, our hospitals will quickly become overwhelmed.”We will never let hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens die. These are not our values.” Meanwhile, the EU’s top adviser on the pandemic warned most of the continent will have to go back into some form of lockdown.  Professor Peter Piot said people had “relaxed too much” on social distancing measures like mask wearing and now “we’re paying a high price”.

Cases are on the rise across Europe

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Cases are on the rise across Europe

And he warned if current restrictions are eased too soon Europe may face “a third wave with maybe even more deaths”.  It comes as another 310 Brits were reported today to have died from coronavirus, as deaths double in just a fortnight. Brussels boss Ursula von der Leyen admitted Christmas will be “different” but said “a lot depends on behaviour from each individual in the next few weeks”. Mrs Merkel signed off on a second lockdown for all of November after an emergency meeting with state premiers from across Germany.  She admitted: “We are now at a point where, on average nationally, we no longer know where 75 per cent of infections come from.”

We are now at a point where, on average nationally, we no longer know where 75 per cent of infections come from Angela Merkel

Under the measures, due to come in on Monday morning, people will be restricted to meeting members of just one other household in public.  Bars, restaurants, gyms, and cultural venues will be ordered to close and hotels can only stay open for non-tourism related stays.  Schools and nurseries will be allowed to stay open as will shops so long as they impose hygiene measures and limit customer numbers. The plan says: “Families and friends should be able to meet each other even under Corona conditions during the Christmas season.”  In France, Mr Macron ordered bars, restaurants, and secondary schools to shutter as of midnight on Thursday. In France, schools and key public services were given a reprieve after doctors warned hospitals are just days from being overrun.  Europe is being ravaged by a second wave of the virus that experts are warning will be worse than the first. Authorities in Belgium, which has the highest case rate in the EU, are also eyeing a second national lockdown as early as this weekend.  Nick Note: This is getting more serious then a incubation tube down your throat hooked up to a ventilator. You heard about girls gone wild. In this case its the coronavirus gone wild. As in out of control….

Nick Bit: This guy in the video is a liberal PC lefty. All I got to say to the indigenous people everywhere is this. If you can’t defend you land you can’t keep it. So get over it. That is how the world works. I am not apologizing for nothing….

In the waning days of a bitterly partisan presidential election amid a global pandemic, there appears to be some significant distance between President Donald Trump and the nation’s top epidemiologist Dr. Anthony Fauci over the national outlook for dealing with Covid-19. According to almost all topic-centric polls, the coronavirus—and how the federal government has handled it—is the most important issue for voters. But while Trump continually says that we’ve “turned the corner” on the potentially deadly contagion that has caused over 220,00 American deaths, Dr. Fauci tells a much more ominous story. In a teleconference interview with the University of Melbourne Professor Shitij Kapur, Dr. Fauci told his mostly Australian audience “I think it will be easily by the end of 2021 and perhaps into the next year before we start having some semblance of normality.” The Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US, Dr. Fauci was taking part in a new series, Conversations on COVID-19: The Global View. He continued by  explaining the term normality,  saying “If normal means you can get people in a theatre without worrying about what we call congregate-setting superinfections if we can get restaurants to open almost at full capacity.” President Trump has repeatedly bragged to anyone who asks, but lately mostly political rally-goers, that his administration’s response has been strong, even telling Eric Bolling that there is “not much” he would do differently in the federal government response to the global pandemic. Per capita, however, the United States response in terms of infections and mortality rate has been far from ideal. Dr. Fauci eventually lauded Australia’s response to the pandemic, saying “Australia is one of the countries that has done quite well. New Zealand has done well. I would like to say the same for the US, but the numbers speak for themselves. We’ve had 8.7 million infections, 225,000 deaths, and we are… getting worse and worse.” Nick Note: As i warned you this is not over by a long shot…. And face facts the kill the cats cures are useless. You better get smart, take control and protect yourself…..

Dow drops 900 points on mounting concerns over the coronavirus and the global economic recovery

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Wednesday amid concerns over the latest increase in coronavirus infections and its potential impact on the global economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 900 points, or more than 3%. The S&P 500 slid 3.2% and the Nasdaq Composite traded 3.4% lower. The U.S. indexes took their cues from the European market benchmarks. The German Dax index dropped 4.2% to its lowest level since late May. The French CAC 40 slid 3.4%. The FTSE 100 in London closed 2.6% lower. “Investors’ hopes that the COVID pandemic would not force further stringent mitigations measures and/or potential wholesale lockdowns that would push global economies back into ‘low-consumption mode’ appear to be coming under challenge,” said Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at StoneX. “Avoiding these stringent measures has been a major tenant of the bullish thesis, particularly for those looking to value stocks and for a steeper yield-curve.”

U.S. coronavirus cases have risen by a record daily average of 71,832 over the past week, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed. Meanwhile, coronavirus-related hospitalizations are up 5% or more in three dozen states, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project. Cases are also rising sharply across Europe. The recent uptick in Covid cases has led some countries to reinstate certain social distancing measures. In the U.S., the state of Illinois has ordered Chicago to shut down indoor dining. In Europe, German officials agreed to a four-week partial lockdown. The French government was also expected to impose new restrictions to stem the recent coronavirus increase. “I think there’s going to be a call for lockdowns the likes of which we’ve seen in Chicago,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday. “The lockdowns without the stimulus equals what we’re seeing.” “It’s a shame because, had there been stimulus, we’d then be focusing on earnings and the earnings are actually pretty darn good,” he said. Stocks that would be hurt most by lockdowns or a slowdown in the economy reopening were hit. Shares of Delta Air Lines fell 4.3%. Royal Caribbean shares lost 4.2%. Facebook, Alphabet and Twitter were also down sharply as their respective CEOs testified in front of Senate members. Facebook and Twitter were off by 4.6% and 5.1%, respectively, and Alphabet slid 4.8%. Investors turned to bonds in their search for safety. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell to 0.76%. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known on Wall Street as the market’s “fear gauge,” jumped above 38 and hit its highest level since June 15. “We believe investors should seek to put further COVID-19-related restrictions in perspective and see market setbacks as an opportunity to build exposure in the winners from the next leg up,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer for global wealth management at UBS, in a note.Wall Street also pored through the latest batch of corporate earnings for the previous quarter, including those of tech giant Microsoft. Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the previous quarter as sales from its cloud business grew sharply. However, the stock dipped 3.9% on light revenue guidance. Boeing reported a quarterly loss that’s narrower than expected, but the company said it plans to cut thousands of additional jobs through 2021 as it adjusts to the long-term drop in air travel demand. Boeing shares dropped 3.4%. Shares of General Electric gained more than 8% Wednesday after the company reported stronger than forecast revenues and a surprise adjusted profit for the third quarter. First Solar also posted quarterly numbers that beat analyst expectations, sending its shares up about 11.3%. Nick Note: They certainly got carried away today. We want to move very carefully before the elections. The natives are restless.

US slides on coronavirus fears, Dow down over 450 pts

(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures fell on Wednesday, as rising coronavirus cases globally triggered fears of lockdowns disrupting a nascent economic recovery, while concerns over a contested presidential election also weighed. New cases and hospitalizations set records in the U.S. Midwest, while in Europe, concerns over a national lockdown in France sapped investor appetite for risk. [MKTS/GLOB] Spiraling pandemic, elevated unemployment levels and U.S. lawmakers failing to strike a deal on fresh fiscal stimulus before the Nov. 3 election sent the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq to their lowest close in three weeks on Tuesday. Wall Street’s fear gauge .VIX spiked to its highest level in nearly two months as investors feared a contentious election among other outcomes in the final six-day stretch to the White House race. Democratic challenger Biden leads President Donald Trump nationally by 10 percentage points, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll but the competition is tighter in swing states, which will decide the victor. At 06:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis 1YMcv1 were down 1.64% at 26,918 points and S&P 500 E-minis EScv1 fell 1.35% to 3,337.25 points. Nasdaq 100 E-minis NQcv1 dropped 1.05% to 11,465 points. Microsoft Corp’s MSFT.O quarterly results surpassed analysts targets, benefiting from a pandemic-driven shift to working from home and online learning. However, its shares fell 2% after rising 35% so far this year.The other Big Tech companies – Apple AAPL.O, Alphabet GOOGL.O, Amazon AMZN.O and Facebook FB.O – which are due to report results on Thursday, fell between 0.9% and 1.6%. The White House communications director stated that the relief legislation could be passed “within weeks.”  Nick Note: In my brain I cannot seem to get a bead on this market. So when that happens its best to stand aside. I do not want to be long, I do not want to be short. Until I resolve this internal conflict i want to be out of all Leveraged markets for now.I hate when this happens! If i do not have a market edge then trading at this Point is at best a 50/50 proposition. I do not do 50/50!