API data show an unexpected weekly climb in U.S. crude supplies
The American Petroleum Institute reported today that U.S. crude supplies rose by 2 million barrels for the week ended July 3. The API data also reportedly showed gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.8 million barrels, while distillate inventories declined by about 847,000 barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub, meanwhile, edged up by 2.2 million barrels for the week. Nick Note: It is VERY unusual to see a crude oil inventory build this time of year. Refiners usually are sucking up crude inventories because 4th of July weekend is the start of the summer driving season. I do not think that will happen this year.
In an internal presentation, United Airlines has prewarned thousands of employees that furloughs and layoffs may happen come October 1st. The airline has to give employees 60 days’ notice if they are affected. Although today’s warning is not the start of the official notice period, it is alerting staff that formal warnings may be issued soon. According to the terms of the CARES act, US airlines cannot lay off staff until after September 30th. United Airlines has been offering staff early retirement and voluntary leave packages in an attempt to lessen its current costs. The airline previously warned that if too few employees accepted the offers, the airline would be forced to lay off staff come October. United initially gave flight attendants until June 8th to apply for leave but extended this until July 8th. With the deadline tomorrow, today’s warning may be the final push to encourage staff to leave voluntarily with benefits rather than risking being laid off later in the year. According to the Wall Street Journal, the airline has informed staff that official warnings may be issued to thousands of employees in the coming weeks. If United does go ahead with layoffs, it will have to wait until October. The airline accepted a loan under the government CARES act, which prevents it from laying off staff until October 1st. The airline is required to give staff 60 days’ notice, so official warnings could be given out any time from August 2nd. United also released a caution today regarding its current level of advance bookings. The airline said that new travel restrictions, including mandatory quarantines in some states, have caused a significant drop in bookings. New York announced this week a 14-day isolation period for anyone arriving from a virus hotspot. Consequently, United’s Newark base saw a significant decline in bookings after the announcement. According to the airline’s internal presentation, bookings for the short-term are at 16% of last year’s levels. The airline announced just last week that it was planning to add 25,000 flights to its August schedule as demand grew. But upon announcing the new flights, the airline said it remained “flexible” as the situation continues to fluctuate. Now, just one week after this hopeful announcement, it seems as if the situation has indeed changed. Although United is looking to add flights to its schedule, it is, like all airlines, at the mercy of international restrictions. On July 1st, the European Union announced that travelers from the US would not be able to visit Europe. United’s newly announced schedule includes flights to London, Brussels, Frankfurt, Munich, and Zurich. Clearly United is relying on restrictions lifting very soon. If this is the case, then the airline may not need to lay off many, or any, employees. Today’s warning could be a worst-case scenario if the airline cannot increase its schedule as planned over the coming months. At the time of publication, United had not responded to a request for comment. Nick Note: Their is NO safe way to fly. And people will soon figure it out. Airlines are dead meat!
LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Tuesday amid concerns that a surge in new coronavirus cases, especially in the United States, will hamper any recovery in fuel demand. Brent crude LCOc1 futures declined by 24 cents, or 0.56%, to $42.86, by 1236 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell 30 cents, or 0.74%, to $40.33 a barrel. “Oil prices are lower today on concerns that the surge in coronavirus cases in the U.S. will limit a recovery in fuel demand,” bank RBC said. Sixteen U.S. states have reported record increases in new COVID-19 cases in the first five days of July, according to a Reuters tally. Florida is re-introducing some limits on economic reopenings to grapple with rising cases. California and Texas, two of the most populous and economically important U.S. states, are also reporting high infection rates as a percentage of diagnostic tests conducted over the past week. Other parts of the world, such as Australia, have also been hit by a resurgence in new infections. Saudi Arabia raised its August crude official selling prices on Monday in a sign it sees demand picking up. But some analysts said the move could weigh on already poor margins for refiners. “While record output cuts from the Saudis and the rest of OPEC+ support the idea of stronger differentials, this again will not be welcome news for refiners, doing little to help their margins, which are already under significant pressure,” bank ING said. The U.S. crude market faces some uncertainties from a court decision on Monday ordering the shutdown of the Dakota Access pipeline, the biggest artery transporting crude oil from North Dakota’s Bakken shale basin to the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions, due to environmental concerns. Market sources in the Bakken said the closure of the 570,000-bpd pipeline, while an environmental impact statement is completed, will likely divert some oil flows to transportation by rail. Nick Note: People under lockdown don’t drive and they certainly don’t drive. Oil demand is doomed.
This is a interview form the Yale school of medicine about a new repORt published June 1st 2020
Read the full report as a PDF published below:
Using Hydroxychloroquine and Other Drugs to Fight Pandemic
Interview Date June 01, 2020
Professor Harvey Risch, M.D., Ph.D., is a researcher at the Yale School of Public Health with a specialty in cancer etiology, prevention and early diagnosis, and epidemiologic methods.
He recently studied the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (used in conjunction with two other drugs Azithromycin and Doxylin) to treat people infected with COVID-19 and concluded that the approach should be “widely available” in the fight against the current pandemic.
HR: COVID-19 is really two different diseases. In the first few days, it is like a very bad cold. In some people, it then morphs into pneumonia which can be life-threatening. What I found is that treatments for the cold don’t work well for the pneumonia, and vice versa. Most of the published studies have looked at treatments for the cold but used for the pneumonia. I just looked at how well the treatments for the cold worked for the cold. There are five studies done this way, four of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin and one with hydroxychloroquine plus doxycycline, and they all show that treating the cold part of COVID-19—the early part—works very well.
Do you think that these drug combinations should be used for all people with COVID-19, or only certain patients?
HR: Most people less than 60 years old who are of healthy weight and who don’t have other conditions like heart disease or diabetes can get by without medications. But if anyone starts to have shortness of breath while doing normal activities like walking around at home, they should get medical care immediately.
But the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 remains highly controversial. Why is there so much disagreement if it is effective?
This pandemic is undoubtedly the biggest public health crisis of our time.
HR: I think that there has been confusion about treating the cold versus treating the pneumonia. These medications don’t seem to work so well for treating the pneumonia. As early as possible is crucial, within the first five to six days of symptoms.
Are these drugs safe?
HR: The combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin has been used for decades in hundreds of thousands of people with rheumatoid arthritis. There is a concern that these medications do change the heart pacing a little and could cause cardiac arrhythmias. However, these arrhythmias are still very rare in people using these medications. People who already have heart arrhythmias or are predisposed to them or have family histories of them should discuss this with their health care providers and see if using hydroxychloroquine plus doxycycline or some other medications would be a better choice.
Does hydroxychloroquine have the potential to be a “game-changer” in the fight against this pandemic?
HR: Hydroxychloroquine alone is not the whole story. It needs to be combined with azithromycin or doxycycline and probably with zinc to make it most effective. The game changer is to aggressively treat people as soon as possible, before they are hospitalized, to keep them from becoming hospitalized in the first place. Hydroxychloroquine plus the other medications is what we know about now. In a few months we may have data on other medications that also work. We just have to start with something now.
How widely is the drug currently being used to treat people infected with COVID-19? What do you recommend?
HR: Various places around the world have started using these drugs. An international survey of doctors who treat COVID-19 patients recently showed 72 percent of doctors in Spain say that they have been using them. I think that doctors need to be able to use their own clinical judgement about their patients and have objective information about drugs that can work for the early part of the infection, the cold part.
Why did you study this?
HR: This pandemic is undoubtedly the biggest public health crisis of our time. I started seeing reports of treatment benefit in France and New York and couldn’t understand where the controversy was coming from. So, I did an exhaustive search of studies and data on medication use in COVID-19 outpatients and the paper I wrote just describes everything that I found. Every study has details and the details are important.
Harvey Risch, MD, PhD
Professor of Epidemiology (Chronic Diseases)
Nick Note: I beg you please listen. I have given you this info at a great price. We are banned from social media, cannot get access to email lists and when we send email they are deleted or at best end up in spam.
Hear my words i have no economic interest in getting in a fight i will lose and will cost me. But what kind of person would i be if i possessed this information and did not share it with you. What i about to publish comes from damn near 10 front line Doctors working in some cases major medical centers in over 7 countries. This is a result of myconsultations with them, my extensive research and over 20 years experience with most of these medicines (prescription only) that i have used on myself.
HERE IS WHAT MY FEEBLE BULLSHIT RESEARCH RECOMMENDS Follow this and you will surely die!
DO NOT TAKE ANY MEDICINE OR TREATMENT WITHOUT THE SUPERVISION OF A CERTIFIED REGISTERED DOCTOR.
The consensuses seems to be the following:
At the first signs of problems begin treatment. The early signs are Fever, shortness of breath, Low blood oxygen levels (using a Oximeter) Spo2 under 90%, loss of smell and coughing. OR people you have been in contact with testing positive.
Immediately contact your Doctor and see if he recommends the following:
Hydroxychloroquine: A large “load dose” of Hydroxychloroquine. The dosage depends on body weight. Load doses are 400 to 600 mg per day for up to 4 days. A maintenance dose is 200 to 400mg a day. Experience suggests a regiment of 2 to 4 weeks. This wonderful medicine works by increase the cell pH. The Fact is in millions of doses over decades their has been no statistically significant heart problems.
Azithromycin and Doxylin: Next is the antibiotics. The reason is people get bacterial phenomena. Two antibiotics commonly used are Azithromycin and Doxylin in conjunction with Hydroxychloroquine for decades with no adverse effects. These are not new treatment regimes. In fact we are talking about million and millions of dosses over 50 years.
Aspirin and Clexane: Now we have to deal with the blood clotting problem common with the coronavirous. Two tried and true methods are Aspirin and injections of Clexane. Depending on what you Doctor recommends.
Dexamethasome or Prednisign: Its time to deal with the swelling which is a great big problem. Here the recommended course of treatment is some pretty common steroids. Dexamethasome by injection and/or orally Prednisign.
Zinc Supplements: are important. Its the Zinc that enters the cells to destroy the virus. Supplements with this common. mineral seems to improve outcomes
Crest pro Health Mouthwash: I have used this for years. Viruses like to grow in the nasael passages airways and the mouth and throat especially the roof of the mouth. Robert Salata, chairman of the department of medicine at UH Cleveland Medical Center, is including 4,500 patients in his trial of an antiseptic that health care workers will spray into their mouth three times a day. “It’s pleasant tasting and it’s really safe,” says Salata, also a professor of medicine, epidemiology and international health at Case Western Reserve University, in Cleveland. The antiseptic, called ARMS-I, made by ARMS Pharmaceutical of Cleveland, is already present in lower concentrations in some mouthwashes, he says. You are looking for a mouthwash containing alcohol and ARMS-I which is a trade name for Cetytpyridinium. Such as Crest pro Heath Mouthwash.
Ramipril: This next medicine is a result of statistical research and the correlation of Blood type to frequency of infection. It is found that blood type A people are most vulnerable. The researchers concluded that “blood group A had a significantly higher risk for COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups. Whereas blood group O had a significantly lower risk for the infectious disease compared with non-A blood groups.” The difference is blood Type A have more ACE2 Receptors. SO blocking the ACE2 receptors can block the Coronavirus. And as luck would have it that is easy to do
Many researchers are focusing their attention on a specific protein that allows the virus to infect human cells. Called the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, or ACE2 “receptor,” the protein provides the entry point for the coronavirus to hook into and infect a wide range of human cells. Drugs that inhibit the actions of ACE1 are called ACE inhibitors. Examples of these drugs are ramipril, lisinopril, and enalapril. These drugs block the actions of ACE1 but not ACE2. ACE1 drives the production of ANG II. In effect, ACE1 and ACE2 have a “yin-yang” relationship; ACE1 increases the amount of ANG II, whereas ACE2 reduces ANG II.
Ramipril is a common ACE2 inhibitor commonly prescribed for high blood pressure. Preliminary studies show this may help preventing the coronavirus from hooking onto healthy cells.
Tamiflu: Reinfection is a problem. It turns out that herd immunity is another kill the cats myth. Sending patients home with a box of Tamiflu seems to help. it is a common antiviral.
Nick Note: I want to be clear here. You need to talk to YOUR Doctor. This is a result of ten years research on my part and real world feedback from Doctors around the world treating real patience is a critical care setting. Their is a significant amount of research on all the above. So Google it. Find a Doctor that still has a brain. And i am sure he can help your prepare. All the medicines above have been vetted, approved by the FDA are non narcotic (which means your Doctor does not have to worry about the DEA yanking his license) and are in WIDE distribution for DECADES! My opinion is since these are cheap readily available prescription medicines that are inexpensive and mostly available in generic from. I believe their is no interest by big pharma in having them in wide distribution. The proof is Remdesivir which costs $5000 (they kept the price low (HAHAHAHA) to help their fellow man) for a full course of treatment. AND MAYBE it will get the patient of the ventilator 2 days earlier…. That is if they ever get off alive.
China-focused exchange-traded funds were on pace for their best day on record after a state-owned newspaper urged investors to purchase equities, saying, according to a translation, that a “healthy bull market” is good for the world’s second-largest economy, attempting to shake off the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest China ETF, the iShares MSCI China ETF [S: MCHI], was up 6.8% at midday, its best performance in its nine-year history. The SPDR S&P China ETF GXC, 6.96% was 7.1% higher, and the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China fund ASHR, 11.18% soared 10.6%, also an all-time high, back to 2013. Some funds that focus on particular sectors of the economy did even better: the Global X MSCI China Information Technology CHIK, +11.75% was nearly 12% higher. In the year to date, the iShares fund and the SPDR fund have both gained a little less than 14%, while the Xtrackers product is up 16.4%, compared to a 2% decline for the S&P 500 SPX, 1.26%. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +5.71% closed 5.7% higher. Nick Note: This is some crazy shit. Trump is about to increase sanctions on Chins, The rest of the world is pissed that China has turned Hong Kong into a police state. And every day Haweii loses 5G contracts because their systems spy for China. And for the coup de grah the world is sucking shut again. I expect the FUCK FEST to continue as China stock set more records and it will end in disaster. We have a minor trade for that.
As the number of confirmed new Covid-19 cases surges to new global highs of beyond 200,000 per day, a second wave of the pandemic is increasingly apparent in several countries – most notably in the United States. Modelling the effect of a wider ‘second wave’ scenario, Rystad Energy finds that global oil demand in 2020 could be knocked down to 86.5 million bpd, compared to our current base-case estimate of 89 million bpd. In the second wave scenario, we don’t expect the oil demand impact to be as strong as was seen in the first outbreak, as restrictive measures will be limited to particular regions and sectors. We would expect these “smart lockdowns” to lower the negative demand impact, so as not to repeat the absolute low of 73.7 million bpd in April. The maximum negative demand impact in April 2020 was -26 million bpd, and the peak month in the second wave could come close to this at -18 million bpd, compared to the levels projected prior to the pandemic. We will be revisiting and updating these assumptions as data becomes available. North America (notably the lower US states), the Middle East and Southeast Asia will be hit relatively harder, Rystad Energy’s modelling shows. The rise of Covid-19 cases in the US is of particular concern for the oil market given the country’s high oil consumption under normal circumstances, as this second wave could paralyze road fuel demand. In China, the authorities’ response to the recent case resurgence in Beijing shows that re-imposing radical lockdown measures is still a viable option. “Covid-19 will also re-emerge in other regions in our ‘second wave’ scenario when the flu season starts in the northern hemisphere in September and October. In general, however, new waves of lockdowns in regions such as Europe, South America and Russia are expected to be more targeted and less strict as health systems will be better prepared than they were in April,” says Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Artyom Tchen. The demand for total oil products would not be shared equally. Similar to the current status quo, jet fuel and gasoline would be dealt the most painful blows. But with more testing and smarter lockdowns, a lot of this destruction can be avoided – international borders and travel can gradually reopen, with travel restrictions on certain countries and regions being imposed as new Covid hotspots appear. More work from home (perhaps as much as 15% of the workforce in developed countries) and less leisure travel will still pinch gasoline demand. But as the economic risks mount, we believe there will be creative solutions for the healthy and not-at-risk parts of the population to return to work and keep the economy going. The second wave scenario assumes a prolonged recovery in the aviation sector due to the downside risk of such a wave occurring in the second half of 2020 and a second negative demand impact spike in all regions in the period from August to October 2020. It is in essence an expansion of a downside scenario that we previously modelled called a “mitigation scenario”. In the base-case that we use for our projections, which we call the “effective retainment scenario”, the spread of Covid-19 is plotted under the assumption that drastic social distancing measures are initially taken, which often means strict quarantines. This scenario suppresses the virus so that the number of cases drops to a low level. Governments can then reopen society in a controlled manner. Any new outbreak will be again nipped in the bud with strict measures. The difference between the two scenarios by the end of the year shows a 5 million bpd gap in December’s oil demand in the case of a second Covid-19 wave. If the second wave materializes, global oil demand will recover much more slowly in 2021, landing between 4 million and 5 million bpd lower per month than it would under our current base case, thus dragging the pandemic’s market effect further in time. Demand is still very much in the driver’s seat in setting the oil price agenda – an unexpected dip of any magnitude will send the oil price into a tailspin, whether swift and sharp, or long and painful. At this point, OPEC+ is the single supply tool to materially tighten the market, but it faces massive storage build-ups as an adversary. And if there is a second wave, that storage headache is going to greatly worsen as implied builds again rise.
A significant oil price boost cannot occur until the massive crude stock builds of recent months are neutralized. This means that oil prices will continue to carry considerable downside risk as long as the supply and demand dynamics are moving in opposing trajectories – with supply up and demand down. A second wave of the virus would prolong the timeline these products sit in storage, and signal to refineries to pull back.
If anything, the whole new range of risk factors that still lie ahead in 2020 and 2021 would actually point to more volatility and downside risk before any “flip” back into a true backwardation happens.
Source: Rystad Energy. Nick Note: No way demand returns this year or next. In fact the next down wave will soon start with demand falling off a cliff again!. It will coincide with the coming 2nd wave of the coronavirus. This next wave will infect and kill far more people then the second wave. GOD HAVE MERCY ON ALL OF US. You can bullshit the masses you can even bullshit yourself if you are so foolish. BUT YOU CANNOT BULSHIT GOD. And the virus goes to retirement homes, apartment buildings, malls, shopping centers, grocery stores. The virus loves bars, concerts, restaurants, sporting events and campaign rallies. ANd it loves to kill people. And here is another wake uo call your mask will not Not NOT save you.
The total number of novel coronavirus infections in the United States rose by 43,742 over the past 24 hours to stand at 2,836,764 as the country’s health authorities have carried out almost 35 million tests, according to the Johns Hopkins Unversity’s tally. Since the previous update, 252 additional deaths caused by the coronavirus have been registered, taking the overall death count to 129,657. A total of 894,325 people have recovered from the disease so far, the data showed. Most with permanent damage. The World Health Organization has reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 212,326 in 24 hours. The biggest increases were from the United States, Brazil and India. The previous WHO record for new cases was 189,077 on June 28. Deaths remained steady at about 5,000 a day. Florida’s confirmed coronavirus cases rose by a record 11,458 on Saturday, the state’s health department said, the second time in three days that its caseload increased by more than 10,000. Florida’s record rise in cases was more than any European country’s daily peak at the height of the outbreak there. The new record came a day after seven other states also reported record rises in cases of COVID-19,which has killed nearly 130,000 Americans. Nick Note: Record new infections AND hospitalizations are being recorded every day!
BELMAR, N.J. (AP) — As coronavirus-related restrictions are eased and temperatures climb, people are flocking back to the Jersey Shore. And with the July Fourth holiday weekend upon us, that’s making some people nervous, particularly given the large crowds that have surfaced at some popular shore spots recently and poor compliance with mandated measures to help slow the spread of the virus.
THey are jerking themselves off. This picture shows NO NO NO caution. You would have to be a fucking idiot with a death rich to attend one of these fuck fests
“I am really concerned,” said Paul Kanitra, mayor of Point Pleasant Beach, a popular shore town that was unexpectedly overrun by thousands of tourists who swarmed the beach and boardwalk a few weeks ago at a “pop-up party,” paying little heed to social distancing or masks. “We’re seeing spikes across the country in states that opened up weeks ago, and while we’re doing a good job in New Jersey, there are a lot of people that are way too cavalier about social distancing,” he said. “There’s inherent risk in all of this.”
Large crowds are expected at the shore for the holiday weekend: New Jersey’s casinos have reopened, along with amusement rides and water parks. Beaches are open, though at reduced occupancy levels. Restaurants can offer limited outdoor dining, and stores and shopping malls have reopened.
But not everyone is following rules designed to prevent the spread of the virus, including wearing masks and keeping 6 feet (2 meters) apart. In late June, large crowds swarmed D’Jais, a popular oceanfront nightclub in Belmar in scenes reminiscent of pre-pandemic days. Few patrons wore face coverings, and fewer still kept their distance from others on a packed dance floor. Gov. Phil Murphy saw videos of the packed club and warned the state will not hesitate to reimpose harsher restrictions if people don’t behave. “We cannot let up on our social distancing or our responsibility just because the sun is out,” the governor said. “We can’t be lulled into complacency and think it’s OK to crowd around a bar. That is how flare-ups happen.” Skyler Walker, a woman from Scotch Plains in her early 20s, was on the Belmar beach last week on a sunny day with temperatures brushing 90 degrees. “I definitely think people people are starting to care less about” the virus, she said. But the face mask she wore on the boardwalk while waiting in line to buy beach badges indicated she does not share that view. “They act like it’s over now.”
She was at the beach with a friend who is a nurse in a Jersey Shore hospital filled with coronavirus patients. The friend, who would not give her name, was adamant that the virus is not over, based on what she sees at work every day. She is scheduled to work at the hospital on July Fourth.
Michael Scott, another 20-something on the Belmar beach, said he and his friends have modified their behavior this summer, including at nightclubs. “I try to just hang out with my people,” he said. “I’m not all about looking to meet new people. We have a close group of friends that all kind of quarantined together.” Ocean City Mayor Jay Gillian pleaded with residents and visitors to wear masks during the long holiday, including on the boardwalk, noting, “Ocean City is already very crowded.” Ocean City officials plan to roam the boardwalk Saturday from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., awarding prizes at random to families and individuals wearing face coverings. Although New Jersey’s hospitalization rate is down drastically from a peak a few months ago, officials fear hospitalizations for the virus will rise again if people become lax about taking precautions. “We are especially concerned after the gatherings we saw at the Jersey Shore,” added the state’s health commissioner, Judith Persichilli. “Individuals were packed together, which raises the risk of spreading the virus.” A big test is happening this weekend with the reopening of eight of Atlantic City’s nine casinos. The Borgata is remaining closed due to smoking, drinking and indoor eating bans Murphy imposed on the gambling halls. Most casinos scan guests temperatures upon entering, hand sanitizer dispensers are placed throughout the premises, and everyone inside must wear a mask. The first day of operations, on Thursday, appeared to go well, with widespread compliance with virus precautions. In 2 1/2 hours on the gambling floor of the Hard Rock casino, an Associated Press reporter did not see a single person without a mask. Nick Note: Its impossible to quarantine in a canteen. This is a fools paradise. Watch 2 weeks from now. It will be a freeging disaster. this is simply about the money……. Watch a huge price will soon be paid…… Sad So Sad!
See that white line? that is where refiners are making money. See that red line well that where they lose money. And see the purple line of 2020 margins? Thats where refineries go broke!
OPEC+ production cuts have driven up crude oil prices
End-user demand for transport fuels remains very subdued
Crude oil is the world’s most important commodity, but it’s worthless without a refinery turning it into the products that people actually use: gasoline, diesel, jet-fuel and petrochemicals for plastics. And the world’s refining industry today is in pain like never before. “Refining margins are absolutely catastrophic,” Patrick Pouyanne, the head of Europe’s top oil refining group Total SA, told investors last month, echoing a widely held view among executives, traders and analysts. What happens to the oil refining industry at this juncture will have ripple effects across the rest of the energy industry. The multi-billion-dollar plants employ thousands of people and a wave of closures and bankruptcies looms. “We believe we are entering into an ‘age of consolidation’ for the re?ning industry,” said Nikhil Bhandari, refining analyst at Goldman Sachs Inc. The top names of the industry, which collectively processed well over $2 trillion worth of oil last year, are giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. There are also Asian behemoths like Sinopec of China and Indian Oil Corp., as well as large independents like Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. with their ubiquitous fuel stations. A refinery’s economics are ultimately simple: it thrives on the price difference between crude oil and fuels like gasoline, earning a profit that’s known in the industry as a cracking margin. The industry’s most rudimentary measure of refining profit, known as a 3-2-1 crack spread (it assumes three barrels of crude makes two of gasoline and one of diesel-like fuels), has slumped to its lowest level for the time of the year since 2010. Summer is normally a good period for refiners because demand rises with consumers hitting the road for their vacations. This time, however, some plants are actually losing money when they process a barrel of crude. Just a few weeks ago, the outlook appeared to be improving for the world’s biggest oil consumers. Demand in China was almost back to pre-virus levels and U.S. consumption was gradually rebounding. Now, a second wave of infections has prompted Beijing to lock down hundreds of thousands of residents. Covid-19 cases are also on the rise in Latin America and elsewhere.
With demand in the U.S. now showing signs of heading south again as coronavirus cases flare up in top gasoline-consuming regions including Texas, Florida and California, the margins are at risk of deteriorating in America, which accounts for nearly two in each ten barrels of oil refined worldwide.
“The worst fear for refiners is a resurgence of the virus and another series of lockdowns around the world that would again significantly impact demand,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. Another problem is that — where it has been recovering — the demand pickup has been uneven from one refined product to the next, creating significant headaches for executives who need to select the best crudes to purchase, and the right fuels to churn out. Gasoline and diesel consumption has surged back, in some cases to 90% of their normal level, but jet-fuel remains nearly as depressed as at the nadir of the coronavirus lockdowns, running at just 10% to 20% of normal in some European countries.
“Right now gasoline demand is barely keeping some plants alive,” said Stephen Wolfe, head of crude oil at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “And with jet production shifting over to diesel and gasoline production, that puts even more strain on product supply,” he added.
Ultimately, if refiners don’t make money, they buy less crude, potentially capping the oil-price recovery of the past few months for Brent and other benchmarks.
“Refinery margins in the next five years are going to be worse than the average for the last five years, and particularly bad in Europe,” said Spencer Welch, vice president of oil markets and downstream consulting at IHS Markit. “We already thought that refining was in for a tough time, even more so now.” Nick Note: No matter how much shit the throw at the wall REALITY is planes they don’t fly do not burn jet fuel. And as who out of work and on lock down don’t drive as much. And here is one for you people who are not going into those death chambers the work cubical do not use death cars called public transportation. All that means fuel demand is going to hell in the coronation hand basket. and and that means the shit they use to make all that motion lotion crude oil is seeing demand to continue to plunge.
This chart shows confirmed coronavirus hospitalizations are still increasing. See that red line topping the chart. that is the line of people age 65 and older getting hospitalized
We all hear the MYTH that if you test more you get more people testing positive. The spin is the virus is going away and its no big deal. Reality is their is a easy way to tell. You simple calculate the percentage of the people tested who are positive. So if you test 100 people and 5% are positive. And you test 1000 people and 10% test positive you are obviously seeing the infection rate increasing. And their is a data base that does exactly that. Funny how they forgot to tell you!
The latest data form the muzzled CDC show the second wave is back with the percentage of people testing positive approaching maxim levels again. This data is for the week 26 ending June 27th.
The overall percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased from week 25 (8.1%) to week 26 (8.7%) nationally, driven by increases in seven regions. National percentages of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 by type of laboratory:
Public health laboratories – increased from 5.6% during week 25 to 6.3% during week 26;
Clinical laboratories – increased from 5.3% during week 25 to 5.8% during week 26;
Commercial laboratories – increased from 8.7% during week 25 to 9.3% during week 26.
I am a big believer in pretty pictures. AND funny thing as the positive tests rise , hospitalizations increase and the death toll from “phenomena” increase the pretty little pictures are harder to come by.
in the latest data you can see blue line tests are increasing and surprise surprise the red line is going back up indicating the positive test results are also increasing.
Nick Note: Soon the results of the 4th of July insanity will be in, hospitalizations will soar. The death counts will rise and we will be back in the shit. Lockdowns, bankruptcies galore and the Great depression has not only not been avoided but it will be worse then ever.
