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Iran replaces air defenses damaged in June war with Israel

Iran has replaced air defense systems damaged during last month’s conflict with Israel, according to remarks by Mahmoud Mousavi, deputy operations chief of Iran’s regular army, published Sunday by Defah Press. “Some of our air defenses were damaged… but our colleagues used domestic resources and pre-arranged systems to restore airspace security,” Mousavi said. The June conflict saw Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian defense infrastructure as Iran launched drones and missiles at Israeli targets.

NN: Iran is rearming and regrouping very quickly.

 

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Oil Prices Will See a Significant Upside Move

 

Standard Chartered believes the market significantly overestimates OPEC’s spare oil production capacity, suggesting a potential $15/barrel upside for oil prices.

  • Both Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs have a bullish outlook on oil prices for different timeframes, citing factors like supply disruptions and low spare capacity.
  • The article also predicts a strong rally in natural gas prices if the US implements further sanctions on Russian gas exports to the EU.

The 9th OPEC International Seminar was held in Vienna a week ago, wherein participants discussed energy security, investment, climate change, and energy poverty, with a particular emphasis on balancing these competing priorities. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the summit titled “Charting Pathways Together: The Future of Global Energy” featured significantly greater engagement from international oil companies and consuming country governments, with discussions converging on a more inclusive shared agenda rather than non-intersecting approaches seen in previous years. However, StanChart reported there was a clear mismatch between what energy producers vs. market analysts think about spare production capacity. Unlike Wall Street analysts, who frequently talk about spare capacity of 5-6 million barrels per day (mb/d), speakers from several sectors of the industry noted thatspare capacity is both limited and very geographically concentrated.  StanChart believes this erroneous assumption about spare capacity has been a big drag on oil prices, and the implications for the whole forward curve of oil prices could be potentially profound once traders realize that roughly two-thirds of the capacity they thought was available on demand does not actually exist. This makes the analysts bullish about the general shape of their forecast 2026 price trajectory sees a significant upward shifts as opposed to the flat trajectory seen in the market curve and in analyst consensus. In other words, oil prices could have as much as $15/barrel upside from current levels. StanChart is not the only oil bull here. Goldman Sachs recently hiked its oil price forecast for H2 2025, saying the market is increasingly shifting its focus from recession fears to potential supply disruptions, low spare capacity, lower oil inventories especially among OECD countries and production constraints by Russia. GS has increased its Brent forecast by $5/bbl. Brent and WTI crude, respectively.  Goldman sees a stronger oil price rebound beyond 2026 due to reduced spare capacity.

NN: Oil looks VERY strong to me.

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Kurdistan Halt Oil Production After Drone Attacks….. Oil Rises on Tight Supply

Drone Strikes Cripple Oil Production Infrastructure In Iraq’s Kurdistan

Several oilfields operated by foreign companies in Iraq’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan have halted production in the past few hours following attacks with explosive-laden drones on infrastructure at the fields. On Tuesday, a drone attack forced the suspension of production at the Sarsang oilfield, operated by a U.S. privately held firm, HKN Energy. The attack took place hours before HKN Energy signed a preliminary agreement with the Iraqi oil ministry to develop another oilfield. HKN Energy confirmed production at Sarsang has been suspended, but noted that all personnel have been safely accounted for. The attacks continued on Wednesday morning local time, with explosive-laden drones hitting oilfields operated by Norwegian firm DNO and U.S.-based Hunt Oil Company, Kurdistan’s counter-terrorism services said. DNO announced on Wednesday that operations at its Tawke field in Kurdistan have been temporarily suspended following three explosions early this morning, one involving a small storage tank at Tawke and another involving surface processing equipment at Peshkabir. There have been no injuries. The damage assessment is underway, and the company expects to restart production once said assessment is completed.

However, Kurdistan security sources told Reuters that initial investigations suggested the drone came from areas controlled by Iran-backed militias.

The oil production halt comes as the federal government in Baghdad and the regional Kurdish government in Erbil continue to quarrel over who should be responsible for the oil exports and the subsequent revenue distribution.

Oil Rises on Tight Supply Signals

Oil rose amid signs of tighter supplies in the near term and on stronger demand signals in the US. Prices also found support from indications of a tighter near-term physical crude market on Thursday. US crude inventories slid last week and Iraq has lost about 200,000 barrels a day of oil production due to drone attacks on several fields in Kurdistan. Chevron Corp. said it was on the cusp of reaching a production plateau in the largest US oil field. “While inventories globally have built very significantly, stocks in the pricing centres – especially in the US – are still quite low,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, said on Bloomberg Television. Market focus has shifted to “downside risks to supply,” he said. Limiting the rally, Iraq approved a plan for its semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports that have been halted since March 2023. The Kurdistan Regional Government will supply Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO at least 230,000 barrels a day for export, the federal government said. Supply concerns were also reflected in the forward curve for crude. It is currently trading in backwardation, where a premium is paid for sooner delivery over longer-dated contracts.

In the US, distillate stockpiles remain at the lowest seasonal level since 1996 even after last weeks increase.

NN: A big oil shock is coming. Pod Cast:

The war Drums are Beating
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US, Israel said to discuss additional attacks on Iran

Officials from the United States and Israel are supposedly considering possible additional attacks on less-damaged Iranian nuclear infrastructure if Tehran doesn’t resume negotiations with the US soon, or starts reconstruction of nuclear facilities, NBC News reported on Thursday. According to the media outlet which cited sources with knowledge of the matter, the latest assessment from the US showed that only one of the three nuclear sites in Iran is significantly damaged, while the other two could potentially resume uranium enrichment in several months. NBC News also shared that US President Donald Trump was allegedly briefed on a more complex military campaign against Iran that would last for a couple of weeks and include hitting three additional sites, but he ultimately rejected it.

NN; The only way with Iran is to bomb them out of the nuclear bossiness. 

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Israel strikes in Damascus as clashes between government and Druze minority rage on

 

Violence erupted in the predominantly Druze city of Suweida on Sunday, two days after a Druze merchant was reportedly abducted while travelling by road to Damascus. On Tuesday, after two days of the deadly clashes, Israel said it had bombed Syrian government forces around Suweida. Syrian forces have been accused of also attacking the Druze. The government has not responded to then specific allegations, but has condemned the attacks on Druze people and said its troops are there to restore order.

IDF confirms it carried out strike near presidential palace. Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered strikes on forces and weapons in the area because the government “intended to use [them] against the Druze”. Syria has condemned Israel’s involvement. At least 200 people have been killed since the clashes started on Sunday, the UK-based monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Tuesday. Israeli strikes have killed one civilian and injured 18 more people in Damascus, according to an update from the Syrian health ministry. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says it targeted the area around Syria’s presidential palace in strikes earlierIn a post on social media, the IDF says “a military target was struck in the area of the Syrian regime’s Presidential Palace in the Damascus area”. It also confirmed Syria’s defence ministry headquarters was hit in the attacks on the capital. Earlier this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned he would not “tolerate any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria” from the country’s new security forces. He also demanded the complete demilitarisation of much of the south, saying Israel saw Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Sunni Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as a threat.

NN: War is breaking out all over.   Peace is the illusion of our time. Bet  on war and plan for oil supply disruptions..

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Putin, unfazed by Trump, will fight on and could take more of Ukraine

  • Putin will fight on until West engages with his terms, sources say
  • Putin’s appetite for territory may increase as Russia advances, sources say
  • Trump on Monday promised arms to Ukraine, threatened sanctions on Russia
  • Sources close to Kremlin say economic pressure will not force Putin to change course
MOSCOW, July 15 (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin intends to keep fighting in Ukraine until the West engages on his terms for peace, unfazed by Donald Trump’s threats of tougher sanctions, and his territorial demands may widen as Russian forces advance, three sources close to the Kremlin said. Trump on Monday expressed frustration with Putin’s refusal to agree a ceasefire and announced a wave of weapons supplies to Ukraine, including Patriot surface-to-air missile systems. He also threatened further sanctions on Russia unless a peace deal was reached within 50 days.
The three Russian sources, familiar with top-level Kremlin thinking, said Putin will not stop the war under pressure from the West and believes Russia – which has survived the toughest sanctions imposed by the West- can endure further economic hardship, including threatened U.S. tariffs targeting buyers of Russian oil. “Putin thinks no one has seriously engaged with him on the details of peace in Ukraine – including the Americans – so he will continue until he gets what he wants,” one of the sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.
Despite several telephone calls between Trump and Putin, and visits to Russia by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, the Russian leader believes there have not been detailed discussions of the basis for a peace plan, the source said.
  White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly blamed former President Joe Biden for allowing the war to erupt during his administration. “Unlike Biden, President Trump is focused on stopping the killing, and Putin will be faced with biting sanctions and tariffs if he does not agree to a ceasefire,” she said. Two  sources said that Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield and its economy, geared towards war, is exceeding the production of the U.S.-led NATO alliance in key munitions, like artillery shells.
A map of Russian-occupied areas in eastern Ukraine as of July 1, 2025.
A map of Russian-occupied areas in eastern Ukraine as of July 1, 2025.
Russia, which already controls nearly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, has advanced some 1,415 square km (546 square miles) in the past three months, according to data from the DeepStateMap, an open-source intelligence map of the conflict. However, Trump told the BBC in an interview  published on Tuesday that he was not done with Putin and that a Ukraine deal remained on the cards.Despite existing sanctions and the cost of fighting Europe’s biggest conflict since World War Two, Russia’s $2 trillion economy has performed far better than many in Russia or the West expected. The economic ministry forecasts a slowdown to 2.5% annual growth in 2025 from 4.3% last year.
NN: Russia is not Iran. And Putin is not the Ayatollah. Russia will  not go quietly. He already has nukes, over 5,000 of them. And Putin who is winning is not going to fold when he has most of the asses.  How much resolve does Trump have here remains to be seen. This is the build up to the main event. The Battle in the Baltic
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Trump may allow Ukraine to use ATACMS on Russia

United States President Donald Trump could allow Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles for strikes deep into Russia’s territory, the Washington Post reported, citing people familiar with his plans. According to the source, Trump’s newly announced military assistance to Kiev will be worth $10 billion and

may include authorization to use the 18 ATACMS missiles already in Ukraine at their full range of 300 kilometers, as well as more ATACMS missile supplies to Kiev.

On Monday, Trump announced that the US will send Ukraine Patriot missile systems that will be funded by NATO

NN: Trump gave Iran 60 days, on day 61 he bombed the shit out of them. He gave Russia 50 days. Tell me what do you think will happen on day 51?

Trump to supply missiles to Ukraine, gives Russia 50-day ultimatum

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Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on Russia, Pledges Arms for Ukraine

US President Donald Trump threatened to impose stiff financial penalties on Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine, while pledging fresh weapons supplies for Kyiv.

“We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days, tariffs at about 100%,” Trump said Monday during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House.

Trump said the levies would come in the form of “secondary tariffs,” without providing details. The US president has used the term in the past to describe duties imposed on countries for trading with American adversaries. Asked later if Trump meant to refer to the more widely known tool “secondary sanctions,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters that sanctions and tariffs were “both tools in his toolbox” and that “you can do either one.” A White House official said Russia could face both measures if it fails to sign a ceasefire deal by early September. The threats echo punishment spelled out in a bipartisan bill in Congress that would impose 500% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. Trump also vowed earlier this year to tariff imports from countries that buy Venezuelan oil. Trump did not elaborate on the powers he would use to impose secondary tariffs. He said he wasn’t sure “we need” Congress to act in order to move forward but said the legislation “could be very useful.” The comments mark the latest signal of Trump’s growing impatience with Moscow’s war in Ukraine, which has dragged on since 2022. But the arrangement also risks Moscow continuing its barrage on the battlefield before it returns to talks. Trump said the US was sending a “top-of-the-line weapons” package that includes Patriot air defense batteries. The president said that NATO member states will pay for the weapons to be sent to Ukraine. “We’re not buying it, but we will manufacture it,” Trump said. “They’re going to be paying for it.” Much of what Kyiv will receive will depend on Europe’s ability and willingness to make the purchases. Ukraine needs air defence systems and drone interceptors as well as a constant supply of artillery shells and missiles as Moscow unleashes record air strikes.  Trump hailed the move as a major shift in course as he looks to push Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the hostilities. But the details of the decision also reflect Trump’s priorities: it won’t cost the US anything and Trump is not dedicating any new US funding to Ukraine, at least for no w “I’m disappointed in President Putin because I thought we would have had a deal two months ago, but it doesn’t seem to get there,” Trump said. The White House didn’t immediately explain how Trump envisioned the secondary tariff program working. Oil futures fell to session lows, down more than 1%, after Trump made the threat. The president’s remarks in recent weeks make clear that his willingness to deal with Putin is being tested. Trump directed most of his ire at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during the first several months of his term but has grown increasingly frustrated that Putin is still refusing his ceasefire demands.

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WTI down 2% as Trump announcements disappoint

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2% on Monday after US President Donald Trump did not announce further sanctions on Russian oil, disappointing markets who had been expecting more stringent measures after he touted a “major statement” on the country. The lack of prompt action The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2% on Monday after US President Donald Trump did not announce further sanctions on Russian oil, disappointing markets who had been expecting more stringent measures after he touted a “major statement” on the country. The lack of prompt action affected prices even though Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary penalties on Russia if a ceasefire wasn’t established within 50 days. WTI for settlements in August decreased by 2.02% at 1:16 pm ET, selling for $67.07 per barrel. Brent for deliveries in September lost 1.58% and went for $69.25 per barrel at the same time. affected prices even though Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary penalties on Russia if a ceasefire wasn’t established within 50 days. WTI for settlements in August decreased by 2.02% at 1:16 pm ET, selling for $67.07 per barrel. Brent for deliveries in September lost 1.58% and went for $69.25 per barrel at the same time.

nn: an emergency reality tv broadcast to announce   massive Russian sanctions in 5 months