A Greek-operated bulk carrier was attacked in the Red Sea on Monday in the second Houthi strike on commercial shipping in less than 24 hours, stoking fears of a renewed escalation in one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors, Arab and Israel media report. The Eternity C, a Liberia-flagged vessel managed by Athens-based Cosmoship, was hit off Yemen’s Hodeidah coast using a combination of sea drones, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms. Two seafarers were seriously injured and two more are missing, according to shipping intelligence sources cited by media. The vessel was reportedly en route to Iran with a cargo of steel. The attack follows Sunday’s strike on the Magic Seas, another Greek-managed bulk carrier. Houthi militants claim the Magic Seas has sunk. That vessel was hit southwest of Hodeidah and its crew abandoned ship before rescue. Both ships are Liberia-flagged, and neither was carrying Israeli cargo, according to tracking data. Insurance premiums for vessels crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait have already increased, with underwriters signaling more exclusions are likely in coming days. The renewed Red Sea volatility comes as Axios reports that Israeli officials believe Donald Trump would authorize pre-emptive military action against Iran’s nuclear program if he returns to office. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to raise the issue during a closed-door dinner with Trump this week. Tehran has restarted centrifuge operations at key enrichment sites, setting off fresh alarm in Tel Aviv.
Oil Edges Up as Saudis Bet Market Can Absorb OPEC+ Output Hike
Oil crept higher as Saudi Arabia surprised customers in Asia by hiking prices for its main crude grade, signaling a vote of confidence that the market can absorb extra OPEC barrels. West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $67 a barrel, erasing earlier losses. Saudi state producer Aramco will raise the price for Arab Light crude, its flagship grade, by $1 a barrel to $2.20 a barrel more than the regional benchmark for Asian customers in August, according to a sheet from the company seen by Bloomberg. The pricing move staved off a rout in oil after a simultaneous decision by eight OPEC+ nations to increase supply more rapidly than expected with an addition of 548,000 barrels a day in August and more expected in September.
“The decision to raise prices during the peak summer demand season signals that physical markets remain tight, suggesting the additional barrels can be absorbed — for now,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “In the short term, downside risks to crude appear contained.”
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump pushed back a July 9 deadline for country-by-country tariffs to go into effect to Aug. 1, allowing trade partners three more weeks to negotiate away economy-crushing levies on exports to the US. The delay has improved the near-term demand outlook for oil-consuming nations, including the European Union, facing especially punishing tax rates, but uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of talks continues to weigh on crude prices. Traders and analysts also noted that OPEC’s decision to hike production at an even faster-than-anticipated rate highlights bullish market fundamentals, including resilient demand in the US and China, as well as pockets of extreme tightness in the physical market amid summer driving season. The larger increase also amplifies a dramatic strategy pivot, from years of output restraint to reopening the taps to reclaim market share. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies had announced hikes of 411,000 barrels a day for May, June and July — already three times faster than initially planed — and traders had expected the same for August. The cartel will consider adding another 548,000 barrels a day in September at its next meeting on Aug. 3, according to delegates. The boost was based on “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals,” the group said in a statement on Saturday. OPEC+ will increase oil production even more rapidly than expected next month as eight key alliance members agreed to raise supply by 548,000 barrels a day at a video conference on Saturday. The countries had announced increases of 411,000 barrels for each of May, June and July. Bloomberg’s Anthony di Paola reports. Oil has been trading in a relatively narrow band since the pause in the Israel-Iran conflict, which saw Brent top $80 a barrel. OPEC+ is “clearly taking advantage of a period of tightness in global energy markets,” said Robert Rennie, the head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp. However, there are “downside risks” to oil prices as seasonal demand wanes after summer, he added. In the Middle East, Yemen’s Houthis have claimed responsibility for an attack on a ship sailing through the Red Sea, in their first strike on merchant shipping since December.
NN: do not be fooled supplies ae tight. many produces ae losing money with prices at these levels. refracking old wells can not be justified, and peace in the middle east is very elusive. i am still gunning for $100 brent
Oil Prices Expected to Stay Under $70……No Way
- Analysts widely expect oil prices to remain below $70 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, primarily due to global oversupply and ongoing uncertainties regarding demand.
- Despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, these factors are not anticipated to significantly drive up oil prices unless direct supply disruptions occur.
- Major investment banks and surveys project average Brent crude prices around $66-$67 and WTI crude around $63-$64 for the year, with OPEC+ likely to adjust production if prices fall significantly.
Despite heightened tensions in the Middle East, oil prices are likely to remain capped below $70 per barrel for the rest of the year amid ample supply and uncertainties about demand. Unless actual supply disruptions occur in and around the hotspots in the Middle East, the price of oil will be a function of supply and demand, analysts and investment banks say. Growing supply from the OPEC+ group, although not as high as the monthly headline figure of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) suggests, is set to create an oversupply on the market going into autumn, even if summer demand holds strong. On the demand side, peak summer travel season may justify higher supply, but lingering trade and economic uncertainties may cap upside to prices. As a result, most analysts expect oil prices to hover around the current levels in the mid-$60s per barrel and average below $70 a barrel for 2025.
Currently, oil’s ‘normal’ price would be in the $70s range, but the market oversupply is keeping prices in the $60s, Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager of Tortoise Capital, told BNN Bloomberg this week.
“In order for oil prices to return to what we think is the $70s, kind of normal price, you need the market to really rebalance,” Thummel said. “What that means is either oil production in other locations is going to fall, and, or effectively, demand for oil is probably going to rise more than what people expect in the second half of the year.” According to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, crude oil may face headwinds in the second half of the year amid rising output and economic growth concerns.
“OPEC8+ continues to ramp up production in an effort to punish overproducing quota cheaters, and to reclaim market share from higher-cost producers which may eventually have to dial down production amid lower price expectations,” Hansen said in a weekly commodities commentary.
Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, expect Brent crude prices to average $66.32 a barrel and WTI Crude to average $63.03 per barrel this year, according to a June survey by The Wall Street Journal. The responses in June were slightly higher compared to those in the May poll, but the analysts continue to see fundamentals as key for prices, and right now these fundamentals point to an oversupply amid uncertain economic prospects with the U.S. tariff policies.
The Reuters survey of 40 analysts and economists in June also saw a slight increase in the price forecasts. Brent is seen averaging $67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from $66.98 a barrel expected in May. WTI is expected to average $64.51, up from $63.35 per barrel in May. However, analysts concur that the glut would cap rallies unless the Middle East conflict broadens and leads to more volatility and price spikes.
In case an oversupply overwhelms the market if summer demand disappoints, OPEC+ is likely to act swiftly to put a floor under prices by pausing production increases.
“We expect OPEC+ to exert caution in raising production, even putting plans on hold indefinitely at the first signs that prices may fall significantly,” Matthew Sherwood, lead commodities analyst at EIU, told Reuters.
Next week could remove some uncertainty over the global economy and oil demand as July 9 is the end of President Trump’s 90-day pause on the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs.
“We could see tariff increases reinstated on some US trading partners if trade deals are not concluded. This leaves a fair amount of uncertainty going into next week,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Thursday.
The oil market is full of uncertainties, but current supply and demand balances point to an oversupply and subdued oil prices in the coming months, barring a supply disruption in the Middle East.
Houthis hit airport, ports, energy facility in Israel
The Yemen-based Houthis announced on Monday that they launched attacks on multiple key sites in Israel in retaliation for Israeli military actions. In a statement on X, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarae detailed the strikes, citing the use of a “Palestine 2” hypersonic ballistic missile against Lod Airport, along with drone attacks on Ashdod Port, the Ashkelon area power facility, and Umm al-Rashrass Port. Previously, Israeli forces reported conducting aerial assaults on various Houthi military installations in Yemen, targeting Hodeidah, Ras Isa, and Salif ports, plus the Ras Khatib power facility.
NN{ it does not seem to be peace to me. not even a ceasefire.
Trump Says ‘Good Chance’ Of Hostage Deal With Hamas ‘During The Week’
MORRISTOWN, United States — US President Donald Trump said on Sunday there was a “good chance” of a hostage deal with Hamas “during the week,” ahead of his upcoming meeting with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. “I think there’s a good chance we have a deal with Hamas… during the coming week,” Trump told reporters amid mounting pressure on the Israeli prime minister to agree to a ceasefire and end the war in Gaza after almost two years.
Netanyahu said Sunday he hoped his talks in Washington could “help advance” a Gaza ceasefire deal.
Trump and Netanyahu are scheduled to meet at the White House on Monday — the Israeli prime minister’s third visit since Trump returned to power in January. Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas were underway in Qatar Sunday. “We’ve gotten a lot of the hostages out, but pertaining to the remaining hostages, quite a few of them will be coming out,” Trump added. He said the United States was “working on a lot of things” with Israel, including “probably a permanent deal with Iran.” Trump also repeated claims that US strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities during the 12-day Iran-Israel conflict. Since the start of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, mediators have brokered pauses in fighting during which hostages were freed in exchange for Israel-held Palestinian prisoners. Of the 251 hostages taken by Palestinian militants during the October 2023 attack, 49 are still being held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead.
NN: they might get a temporary ceasefire. Peace never!
Hebron sheikhs wish to join Abraham Accords
A group of five leading sheikhs in the Hebron district of the Palestinian Authority penned a letter to the Israeli Economy Minister, Nir Barkat, expressing a wish to join the Abraham Accords and have peace with Israel, the Wall Street Journal reported.
“The Emirate of Hebron shall recognize the State of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people,” the letter states, adding that “the State of Israel shall recognize the Emirate of Hebron as the representative of the Arab residents in the Hebron District.”
The letter states that the proposed agreement is “fair and decent” and will replace the:
Oslo Accords, which it says “only brought damage, death, economic disaster and destruction.”
NN: I GUESS they found a few working brain cells. They summed up very nicely what their choices are.
OPEC+ to boost output by 548K bpd in August….As excepted
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies announced on Saturday that the organization agreed to to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. “The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” OPEC+ countries stated in the announcement. The group of eight countries will meet on 3 August this year to discuss and decide on production levels September.
NN: YAWN!!!
Kiev: Russian strike causes Zaporizhzhia nuclear site blackout
IAEA pulls last team of inspectors out of Iran under threat of arrest.
The United Nations atomic watchdog is said to have pulled its last remaining inspectors out of Iran following the implementation of a new law that criminalizes international monitoring, deepening the blackout over Tehran’s nuclear program. The last International Atomic Energy Agency specialists were safely withdrawn from Tehran on Friday to the Vienna-based agency, according to a western diplomat, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information.
It’s the first time since Iran began enriching uranium two decades ago that IAEA monitors — who conducted almost 500 inspections in the Islamic Republic last year — have been expelled from the country.
The withdrawal is likely to draw swift rebukes from Western governments, which have been urging Tehran to allow a resumption of IAEA visits since a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war last month. Instead, the Israeli decision to bomb nuclear sites and military targets on June 13 has effectively put up a barrier, ending oversight of whether Iran is capable of developing a weapons program.
The 274 IAEA monitors accredited to conduct inspections had been verifying the location of Iran’s 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of near-bomb-grade uranium, which is now unknown. Iran has accused the watchdog of being complicit in Israel’s attack against its nuclear installations, a charge IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has denied. Tehran’s envoy in Vienna said the strikes, which US forces joined on June 22, have caused irreparable harm to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the international agreement that allows non-weapons states access to nuclear technologies in return for IAEA inspections. While Iran has yet to leave the NPT, it can argue it’s legally entitled to suspend monitoring under provisions of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows signatories to withdraw cooperation if their rights have been breached. It’s widely established internationally that attacks against nuclear facilities break legal norms. Whether Iran’s legal arguments gain purchase at the IAEA or beyond may influence whether or not the ceasefire between the Persian Gulf nation and Israel holds.
Fighting stopped on June 24 after 12 days, but neither side has ruled out resuming hostilities. To help deter against a renewed assault, Iran could use uncertainty over the whereabouts of its highly enriched uranium to try to dictate events.
For the US and Israel to gain knowledge of the state and location of the stockpile, physical inspections and verification will need to be carried out, most likely via negotiated access for the IAEA.
Oil Slips as US Plans Iran Talks……Again!
Oil declined after Axios reported the US plans to restart nuclear talks with Iran, reducing the risk of another flare-up in the Middle East conflict .HaHaHa
The news service said US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week. That followed a statement from Iran’s top diplomat that the country would continue to engage with the UN’s nuclear watchdog. Crude prices have been buffeted by geopolitical events in recent weeks, first surging after the escalation that included direct US strikes in Iran then declining after Tehran’s retaliation was dismissed as largely symbolic. Renewed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program would further reduce oil’s already-diminished risk premium. Oil’s slump on Thursday also may have been amplified by low liquidity ahead of Friday’s July Fourth holiday in the US.
The Middle East developments squelched some earlier strength in prices that was driven by US jobs data showing stronger-than-expected additions in June. Equity markets rose and the dollar gained, making commodities priced in the currency less appealing.
The US also took fresh steps to restrict the trade of Iranian oil, including sanctions on companies and a “shadow fleet” of vessels that help Iran export its crude.
Oil had rallied on Wednesday against the backdrop of a market flashing pockets of strength. Diesel’s premium to crude in the US earlier hit the biggest in 15 months after stockpiles of the fuel continued to decline. Spreads on the nearest crude contracts are also pointing to tight supplies, with stockpiles at the key storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, sliding.
The continued outlook for supply dynamics, however, depends on a meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Sunday. The group has begun discussing another 411,000 barrel-a-day production increase and is largely expected to agree to the significant supply increase, but may move back from the accelerated production increases if prices dip into the $50-a-barrel range, according to Citigroup Inc.
“We believe we are on the brink of rolling into more structural softness over the next few months,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, senior energy analyst at DNB Bank ASA, led by a seasonal and structural decline in oil demand growth and OPEC+ continuing with its large output hikes.