Posted on

Hedge Funds Rush Into Bullish Oil Bets as Trump Pressures Russia

Hedge funds boosted their bullish bets on crude oil at the fastest pace in over a month as US President Donald Trump’s threat of additional levies on Russia drove fears about tighter supplies. Money managers increased their combined net-long position on West Texas Intermediate and Brent by 39,779 lots to 299,295, in the week ending July 29, according to data from ICE Futures Europe and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission compiled by Bloomberg. That was the biggest increase since mid-June, when the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated. Trump announced a shorter deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened again to impose additional penalties on Russia, reigniting worries about tighter supplies and sparking a rally that sent crude prices to their highest in over a month.

Bullish Oil Bets Rise by Most Since June

Hedge funds flocked to long positions amid rising Russian supply risk

Source: CFTC, ICE

Diesel markets continue to remain tight, making speculators even more bullish on the fuel. Speculators increased bullish wagers on gasoil to the highest in more than three years and stepped up net long positions in US diesel futures and options to the highest in almost four years.

Posted on

OPEC+ agrees to boost oil output by 548,000 bpd in Sept…… As excepted

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies decided during a virtual meeting on Sunday to hike oil production for September by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd), energy journalist Amena Bakr reported. “The phase-out of the additional voluntary production adjustments may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability. The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation,” the cartel noted in a statement. People familiar with the matter have said Saudi Arabia’s main objective is to recoup the market share OPEC+ has ceded to rivals like US shale drillers during years of output cutbacks. Riyadh’s OPEC+ quota for August, at 9.756 million barrels a day, would roughly put its production at the highest level in two years. The decision comes amid increasing US pressure to bring Moscow to the negotiating table to end their ongoing, full-scale invasion of Ukraine.  Threating to put 100% duty on Russian oil. A disruption to Russian flows would threaten to drive up crude prices and run counter to Trump’s repeated call for cheaper oil, as he pushes the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak made a rare visit to Riyadh on Thursday to discuss “cooperation between the countries” with Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. The two countries have jointly led OPEC+ since its creation almost a decade ago.

Posted on

Trump deploys nuclear submarines over Medvedev’s remarks

United States President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to recent comments made by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev. “Based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that,” the US leader wrote. He added that “words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences,” claiming he hopes “this will not be one of those instances.” This week, Trump branded Medvedev a “failed former president” and warned him to “watch his words,” prompting Medvedev to respond with a veiled threat by invoking Russia’s Cold War-era “dead hand” nuclear system.

Posted on

Oil dips by 3% as Trump’s tariffs kick in

The prices of oil futures plunged by almost 3% on Friday as investors assessed the impact of United States President Donald Trump’s numerous sets of tariffs on different countries and industry sectors that took effect on August 1. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September’s deliveries plunged by 3.09% at 12:33 pm ET to $67.18 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for settlements in October slid by 3.12% to $69.47 per barrel.

Posted on

Starmer, Zelensky hail Trump’s new deadline for Russia

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “welcomed” United States leader Donald Trump for setting a new deadline for Russia to end the conflict in Eastern Europe and called for peace talks. “It was clear Russia was the only barrier to peace, the leaders agreed,” Downing Street told the press. Meanwhile, Zelensky tweeted that he and Starmer discussed Russia’s recent attacks on his country, defense cooperation, and sanctions against Moscow. Previously, Trump shortened the deadline of 50 days he gave to Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict in Ukraine to ten days.

NN: Putin is not about to back down. Not with victory so close.

 

Posted on

US: Ukraine conflict must end by August 8

Acting United States Alternate Representative to the United Nations John Kelley remarked on Thursday that President Donald Trump “made it clear” that Russia must end its military campaign in Ukraine by August 8. Speaking before the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Kelley voiced the US’ readiness to “implement additional measures to secure peace” in Ukraine. But first, the two sides must negotiate a ceasefire and durable peace, he said. Previously, Trump shortened the deadline of 50 days he gave to Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict in Ukraine to ten days.

NN:  TICK TOCK
Posted on

Big Oil’s Trading Desks Have a Warning Message for Investors

Geopolitics-led volatility in the market isn’t good for business, Shell CEO says after drop in second-quarter profit.

A recurring theme of second-quarter earnings is becoming clear: Big Oil’s crude traders don’t love geopolitics-led volatility. On Thursday, Shell Plc Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan joined a list of industry executives who pointed out that such market turbulence — which has little to do with the realities of day-to-day supply and demand — isn’t easy for traders to deal with. Instead, they dial back risk. That’s an important detail for oil investors given that US President Donald Trump is showing no signs of letting up on his slew of tariffs on trading partners.

It’s also a reminder that a prime booster of European supermajors’ profits — black-box trading — may not always be able to deliver.

“We are much more of a fundamentals-based trader, so we chose to be a bit more risk-off, more of a prudent risk-management approach,” Sawan said today. The oil majors are tight-lipped about how their traders operate, but they handle more barrels than many of the world’s top merchants. When asked in 2020 about his company’s profit from the sector, TotalEnergies SE CEO Patrick Pouyanne replied simply: “Oil trading is a secret.” Sawan previously said his company’s traders haven’t lost money on a quarterly basis during the last decade. However, Shell’s second-quarter earnings — and those of peers — show how the influence of presidential social-media posts, tariff threats and military maneuvers can swing crude markets in ways that are too unpredictable to trade on. Norway’s Equinor ASA lamented the “different type of volatility” that makes it “very hard to trade around.” The Stavanger-based company said its second-quarter profit dipped compared with a year earlier. In today’s market, Big Oil isn’t chasing every price swing. Rather, it’s learning when to sit them out.

NN: As of August 1st after 1 year of trading cash Machine our oil trading pool has made net over a  140% return mark to market including open positions. How is that for passive income purly spelating?
Posted on

Trump: Hamas surrender fastest way to end Gaza war…… Trump: Canada’s Palestine move makes it hard to get deal

United States President Donald Trump argued on Thursday that the “fastest way to end the humanitarian crises [sic] in Gaza is for Hamas to surrender.” In a post on his Truth Social account, the president also called for the militant group to release the hostages. His comments coincided with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s visit to Israel, where he is expected to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They are expected to discuss the Gaza ceasefire efforts as well as Iran.

Trump: Canada’s Palestine move makes it hard to get deal

United States President Donald Trump criticized Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney announced support for Palestinian statehood. “Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh’ Canada!!!” His remarks come just days before an August 1 deadline to strike a trade deal and avoid new US tariffs on Canadian goods.

Posted on

Gangs and merchants sell highjacked food aid in Gaza

Much of the limited aid entering the enclave is being hoarded by gangs and merchants and sold at exorbitant prices. A kilogram of flour cost as much as $60 in recent days, while a kilogram of lentils can go up to $35. This is way beyond the means of most Gaza residents. Soaring prices are just one of many challenges in a territory where more and more people are dying of hunger. “We want this to end at any price. We’re dying. We’re sacrificing our children, we’ve sacrificed our women and our homes”, said Hassan al-Sakani, a Gaza resident who is selling products on the street. He asked for the Hamas-run government of Gaza to “find us a solution.” Food from the United Nations and the controversial Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is originally handed out for free. It is impossible to know how much is being diverted and neither organization is able to track who receives its aid. The Hamas terrorists, local tribes and gangs — some of which Israel says Hamas supports — took over, residents say.”[Merchants] should have mercy on the children and people’s condition. But there is no mercy in this country”, said Nagwa Ghanem, a Gaza resident. Israel’s decision this weekend to facilitate more aid deliveries — under international pressure — has lowered prices somewhat but has yet to be fully felt on the ground.

“We don’t see sweets, sugar, Nutella or anything that the body could use to resist on the bare minimum that is available”, said Hossam al-Sakani, a Gaza resident. “What’s happening to the people of Gaza is unfair, they are exhausted”, he added.

The UN’s World Food Programme said last week it will only be able to safely deliver aid to the most vulnerable once internal security is restored — likely only under a ceasefire. “In the meantime, given the urgent need for families to access food, WFP will accept hungry populations taking food from its trucks, as long as there is no violence”, spokesperson Abeer Etifa said .Up to 100,000 women and children in Gaza are suffering from severe acute malnutrition, according to the UN. The organisation said on Tuesday that the enclave is facing the “worst-case scenario of famine.”

NN: That what happens when your leaders our terrorists willing to  sacrifice you to blame Israel.