Netanyahu says Israel considering alternatives to ceasefire talks with Hamas, deepening uncertainty….Trump: Hamas didn’t want deal, they wanna die

Netanyahu: Israel and US are ‘considering alternative options to bring hostages home’

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that Israel and the US are weighing ways to secure the release of hostages in Gaza that do not depend on a negotiated agreement with Hamas. “Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff got it right,” Netanyahu says in a statement. “Hamas is the obstacle to a hostage release deal. Together with our US allies, we are now considering alternative options to bring our hostages home, end Hamas’s terror rule, and secure lasting peace for Israel and our region.” Netanyahu does not elaborate on what such “alternative options” could entail. Talks hit a major roadblock yesterday after Hamas submitted its response to the latest ceasefire proposal and Israel withdrew its hostage team. But Jerusalem is still interested in a deal, and public statements are understood by many observers to be part of the pressure campaign to push Hamas to agree to a deal. Last night, Witkoff announced that Washington was calling back its negotiators from hostage talks in Doha and will pursue “alternative options” after the latest response from Hamas “clearly shows a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.”

Trump: Hamas didn’t want deal, they wanna die

United States President Donald Trump said on Friday that Hamas did not “really” want to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Israel. “I think they wanna die, and it’s very bad,” he added, stressing they “know what happens after you get the final hostages.” The comments come after Israel and the US both pulled their delegations from talks in Doha after Hamas demanded the release of 200 Palestinians serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and 2,000 Palestinians detained in the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023, in exchange for 10 living Israeli hostages, despite Israel expressing readiness to free 125 Palestinians from prisons and 1,200 people detained in Gaza. After the failed negotiations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated his country will consider “alternative options” to retrieve the Israeli hostages.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Summary of  Data for the week ending July 18, 2025

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 419 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending July 18, 2025, which was 87 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 95.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased by 95 thousand barrels per day last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 403 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.3 million barrels per day, 7.1% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 606 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 115 thousand barrels per day. . Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels from last week and are slightly above the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week and are about 19% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene
inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels from last week and are 10% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, slightly above the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, down by 4.9 % from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.5% compared with the same four-week period last year.

NN:  Obviously demand is increasing and supplies are  falling.

Crude, Gasoline Draw Props up Oil Prices

U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.169 million barrels in the week ending July 18, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday, broadly confirming the earlier API estimate but with a steeper decline. Analysts had expected a more modest draw, reinforcing signs of strong refining activity and steady demand amid peak summer travel. At 10:00 a.m. Central Time, Brent crude was trading at $68.22, down $0.37 (-0.54%) on the day, while WTI was down $0.36 (-0.55%) at $64.95 per barrel.

Trump Strikes Deal With Ally Japan Setting Tariff Rate at 15%

  • President Donald Trump reached a trade deal with Japan that will impose 15% tariffs on imports including automobiles from Japan.
  • The deal includes a $550 billion fund to make investments in the US, with Japan agreeing to provide the funds to invest in projects in America.
  • Japan will also buy 100 Boeing Co. aircraft, boost rice purchases, and buy $8 billion in agricultural and other products, while hiking defense spending with American firms.

President Donald Trump reached a trade deal with Japan that will impose 15% tariffs on imports including automobiles from the key American ally, while creating a $550 billion fund to make investments in the US. The agreement, touted by Trump after he secured breakthroughs in a final 75-minute Oval Office meeting Tuesday with Japanese negotiators, spares the nation from a threatened 25% tariff that was set to take effect next week. “They had their top people here and we worked on it long and hard, and it’s a great deal for everybody,” Trump said at a White House event Tuesday evening. Under the deal, automobiles and parts would be subjected to the same 15% rate as Japan’s other exports, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in Tokyo, amid local media reports that he’s planning to step down in the wake of the agreement following a poor showing for his party in an election on Sunday. In return, Japan will accept cars and trucks built to US motor vehicle safety standards, without subjecting them to additional requirements — a potentially major step to selling more American-built vehicles in the country. The auto sector tariff had been one of the main sticking points in the negotiations.

Shares in Japanese carmakers jumped in Tokyo on reports the auto sector rate would be lowered to 15% from 25% for Japan. Toyota Motor Corp. rose as much as 16%, compared with gains of around 3% in the Topix benchmark index in the early afternoon. The yen strengthened against the dollar at first, before weakening after the reports of Ishiba’s intention to resign.

A centerpiece of the pact with Japan is the $550 billion investment pledge. A senior US administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity to outline the agreement, said the pledge was akin to a sovereign wealth fund under which Trump himself could steer investments inside the US. Final terms of the agreement still need to be enshrined in a formal proclamation. Legal particulars and other details surrounding the pledge are still being hammered out, according to the official. The investment timeline is not certain, and it’s not clear whether Trump would be able to allocate the full sum during his term.

NN: The oil market has been range bond for weeks. Trading within a $2.00 range. Fearing that tariff wars would slow oil demand. Trump is NOT  going to kill global trade. Proof he just did a deal with one  of Americas biggest trading partners Japan.

Oil down on demand worrie

The prices of oil futures declined on Tuesday as concerns about the outlook for demand were heightened by ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade talks. Investors are keeping a close eye on this week’s EU-US trade negotiations as they attempt to reach an agreement before the deadline of August 1, when US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 30% tariffs on the majority of the bloc’s exports. In other news, Iran said Monday it will begin nuclear negotiations with European nations this week in an attempt to resurrect the 2015 nuclear agreement and prevent the introduction of new international sanctions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September’s settlements dropped by 1.09% at 4:48 am ET to sell for $65.16 per barrel. At that minute, Brent for September’s deliveries decreased by 1.27% to go for $68.44 per barrel.

NN: demand is their. This is more bogs trade war scare tactics.

Israeli forces down missile launched from Yemen

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen in the early hours on Tuesday, shortly after air raid sirens sounded in several areas of the country. The army confirmed its air defense systems acted to block the threat shortly after identifying the launch. “The details are under review,” the IDF stated. This attempted attack followed Israeli airstrikes on Hodeidah, a port under Houthi control.

Araghchi: Iran’s missiles for defense, not offense

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during a Fox News interview that Tehran’s missiles serve exclusively for defense and would never be equipped with a nuclear warhead.

NB:They are being supplied to Israel ad America’s enemies worldwide. And could carry a nuclear warhead without any modification by design

When asked whether Tehran would agree to any deal that requested a reduction in missile production, Araghchi stressed that Iran wouldn’t discard its “most reliable means of defense.” As for Iran’s support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, Araghchi said that Tehran sees their cause as “just,” and would continue to support the groups “as long as they are supporting their [own] justified demands.” “Well, I’m not going to compare, but what you said is exactly what America and the Israelis are doing. The United States has supported Israel with all kinds of weapons to kill people in Palestine, Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and now in Iran,” he noted. At one point during the interview, Araghchi said that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in “good health” and that the country’s atomic scientists “remain intact.”

NN: Is it not painfully obvious what great evil they are up to? 

Iran-Europe nuclear talks set for Friday in Istanbul

Iran, Britain, France and Germany have agreed to resume nuclear talks on Friday in Istanbul, Iran’s Press TV reported on Sunday. Iran will send deputy foreign ministers Kazem Gharibabadi and Majid Takht-Ravanchi to represent the country in Friday’s talks, Iran International English reported, citing Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei. Tehran’s agreement came after the European trio warned that failure to resume negotiations would result in international sanctions being reimposed on Iran through a so-called “snapback mechanism.”

NN: Another trick by Iran to avoid further sanctions and buy time to rebuild and rearm

Iran replaces air defenses damaged in June war with Israel

Iran has replaced air defense systems damaged during last month’s conflict with Israel, according to remarks by Mahmoud Mousavi, deputy operations chief of Iran’s regular army, published Sunday by Defah Press. “Some of our air defenses were damaged… but our colleagues used domestic resources and pre-arranged systems to restore airspace security,” Mousavi said. The June conflict saw Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian defense infrastructure as Iran launched drones and missiles at Israeli targets.

NN: Iran is rearming and regrouping very quickly.

 

Oil Prices Will See a Significant Upside Move

 

Standard Chartered believes the market significantly overestimates OPEC’s spare oil production capacity, suggesting a potential $15/barrel upside for oil prices.

  • Both Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs have a bullish outlook on oil prices for different timeframes, citing factors like supply disruptions and low spare capacity.
  • The article also predicts a strong rally in natural gas prices if the US implements further sanctions on Russian gas exports to the EU.

The 9th OPEC International Seminar was held in Vienna a week ago, wherein participants discussed energy security, investment, climate change, and energy poverty, with a particular emphasis on balancing these competing priorities. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, the summit titled “Charting Pathways Together: The Future of Global Energy” featured significantly greater engagement from international oil companies and consuming country governments, with discussions converging on a more inclusive shared agenda rather than non-intersecting approaches seen in previous years. However, StanChart reported there was a clear mismatch between what energy producers vs. market analysts think about spare production capacity. Unlike Wall Street analysts, who frequently talk about spare capacity of 5-6 million barrels per day (mb/d), speakers from several sectors of the industry noted thatspare capacity is both limited and very geographically concentrated.  StanChart believes this erroneous assumption about spare capacity has been a big drag on oil prices, and the implications for the whole forward curve of oil prices could be potentially profound once traders realize that roughly two-thirds of the capacity they thought was available on demand does not actually exist. This makes the analysts bullish about the general shape of their forecast 2026 price trajectory sees a significant upward shifts as opposed to the flat trajectory seen in the market curve and in analyst consensus. In other words, oil prices could have as much as $15/barrel upside from current levels. StanChart is not the only oil bull here. Goldman Sachs recently hiked its oil price forecast for H2 2025, saying the market is increasingly shifting its focus from recession fears to potential supply disruptions, low spare capacity, lower oil inventories especially among OECD countries and production constraints by Russia. GS has increased its Brent forecast by $5/bbl. Brent and WTI crude, respectively.  Goldman sees a stronger oil price rebound beyond 2026 due to reduced spare capacity.

NN: Oil looks VERY strong to me.

Kurdistan Halt Oil Production After Drone Attacks….. Oil Rises on Tight Supply

Several oilfields operated by foreign companies in Iraq’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan have halted production in the past few hours following attacks with explosive-laden drones on infrastructure at the fields. On Tuesday, a drone attack forced the suspension of production at the Sarsang oilfield, operated by a U.S. privately held firm, HKN Energy. The attack took place hours before HKN Energy signed a preliminary agreement with the Iraqi oil ministry to develop another oilfield. HKN Energy confirmed production at Sarsang has been suspended, but noted that all personnel have been safely accounted for. The attacks continued on Wednesday morning local time, with explosive-laden drones hitting oilfields operated by Norwegian firm DNO and U.S.-based Hunt Oil Company, Kurdistan’s counter-terrorism services said. DNO announced on Wednesday that operations at its Tawke field in Kurdistan have been temporarily suspended following three explosions early this morning, one involving a small storage tank at Tawke and another involving surface processing equipment at Peshkabir. There have been no injuries. The damage assessment is underway, and the company expects to restart production once said assessment is completed.

However, Kurdistan security sources told Reuters that initial investigations suggested the drone came from areas controlled by Iran-backed militias.

The oil production halt comes as the federal government in Baghdad and the regional Kurdish government in Erbil continue to quarrel over who should be responsible for the oil exports and the subsequent revenue distribution.

Oil Rises on Tight Supply Signals

Oil rose amid signs of tighter supplies in the near term and on stronger demand signals in the US. Prices also found support from indications of a tighter near-term physical crude market on Thursday. US crude inventories slid last week and Iraq has lost about 200,000 barrels a day of oil production due to drone attacks on several fields in Kurdistan. Chevron Corp. said it was on the cusp of reaching a production plateau in the largest US oil field. “While inventories globally have built very significantly, stocks in the pricing centres – especially in the US – are still quite low,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, said on Bloomberg Television. Market focus has shifted to “downside risks to supply,” he said. Limiting the rally, Iraq approved a plan for its semi-autonomous Kurdish region to resume oil exports that have been halted since March 2023. The Kurdistan Regional Government will supply Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO at least 230,000 barrels a day for export, the federal government said. Supply concerns were also reflected in the forward curve for crude. It is currently trading in backwardation, where a premium is paid for sooner delivery over longer-dated contracts.

In the US, distillate stockpiles remain at the lowest seasonal level since 1996 even after last weeks increase.

NN: A big oil shock is coming. Pod Cast:

The war Drums are Beating