US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased deal that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lift its blockade of Iranian ports, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Another trick from the Iranians to buy time. The two countries — which have both refused to make similar agreements in recent months — were making a push for a breakthrough Thursday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, the person said, declining to be named discussing private matters. Qatari officials are mediating the negotiations. A sequenced deal would be similar to the memorandum of understanding that the US and Iran struck in mid-June, which led to a fragile ceasefire that collapsed just weeks later. A White House official said President Donald Trump remains open to talking with Iran but stressed the US didn’t need to negotiate because it was in a strong position as a result of an escalating sanctions campaign and an ongoing naval blockade pressuring Iran’s economy. Oil fell on reports that US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased deal, with global benchmark Brent sliding toward $106 a barrel after rising more than 7% over the previous two days. White House special envoy Steve Witkoff said on social media this week that mediators had spent much of the day shuttling between US and Iranian officials during extended discussions.
NN: As per our previous trade reco we need to double down on this oil pullback. Understand the trick. Trump needs the headlines to report energy prices are coming down for the midterm elections. Iran needs time to rearm and restock its consumer goods economy. As has happened with all the other deals this one will unravel and it will be off to the races. I expect if the deal is done for Brent to fall into the nineties. This is a extradentary Double Down buying opportunity.
Its just not this easy. Iran cannot help themselves. Like has happened over thirty times before this deal will fail. Oil goes down when their is talk of a deal or one is partially enacted. Only to go right back up again when talks fail. The same thing will happen this time. Here is a list:
| Date | What Trump said |
|---|---|
| Mar 9 | War against Iran “is going to be finished pretty quickly” |
| Mar 11 | “We won… In the first hour, it was over” |
| Mar 13 | War will end “when I feel it in my bones” |
| Mar 15 | Iran is “decimated,” though not “declaring it over” |
| Mar 23 | “Major points of agreement” / “almost all points of agreement” reached |
| Mar 25 | Iran wants to “make a deal so badly” |
| Mar 26 | At a Cabinet meeting: Iran is “begging to make a deal” |
| Mar 29 | Aboard Air Force One: “I do see a deal in Iran, yeah” |
| Apr 6 | They had been “very close to a deal” before a setback |
| Apr 7 | Ceasefire announced; sides “very far along,” deal to be “finalized and consummated” within two weeks; “an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution” |
| Apr 15 | Told Fox Business: “I think it’s close to over” |
| Apr 17 | “We will get a deal in the next day or two”; also: “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again” |
| Apr 21 | Unilaterally extends ceasefire, pending a “unified proposal” from Iran |
| Apr 30 | Iran is “dying to make a deal” |
| May 1 | “I think we’re going to be finished with that very quickly” |
| May 18 | Delays strikes “two or three days” because regional countries “think they are getting very close to making a deal” — while conceding past predictions like this “didn’t work out” |
| May 19 | At a Congressional picnic: war will end “very quickly” |
| May 23 | On Truth Social: agreement “largely negotiated,” details “will be announced shortly,” including reopening the Strait of Hormuz |
| May 28 | Sides close to a “very good deal” |
| May 29 | Heads to the Situation Room for a “final determination” — meeting ends without one |
| Jun 1 | Iran “really wants to make a deal”; tells critics to “sit back and relax” |
| Jun 5 | Calls it “practice,” not really a war |
| Jun 9 | “We’re in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal,” signable “in two to three days”; also told Axios “we are very close to a final deal” (at least his third such claim to Axios specifically) |
| Jul 11 | Original ceasefire collapses after attacks by both sides |
| Aug 3 | Calls off a threatened strike, says regional diplomacy opened “a path to a deal”; talks to “start today” |
| Aug 5 | “It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day,” re: reopening the Strait of Hormuz; says Hormuz “is going to be open very soon” |
| Aug 5–6 | Treasury Secretary Bessent also says a Hormuz deal “could be expected in days” (echoing Trump) |
| Aug 12 (week of) | Iran/Oman reported “final stages” of a Hormuz shipping deal; Trump again says agreement “could happen” as soon as Wed/Thu |
| Aug 14 | Says he’ll declare the Strait of Hormuz US territory once “we finish defeating Iran,” claims will happen “pretty soon”; days earlier claimed the US has “total control” of the strait |
| Aug 17 | The 60-day window from the June memorandum expires with no deal; Trump threatens to “bomb the shit out of” Oman if it “gets in the way” |
| Sep 22 | At the UN General Assembly, says a deal with Iran is close |
A little recent history lesson below
- September 8, 2026 — Houthi forces attack southern Saudi Arabia; Saudi authorities report 73 wounded, with damage to energy infrastructure.
- Sept. 25 — Houthis capture Mocha, a Red Sea port roughly 80 km from Bab el-Mandeb.
- Thursday — MBS calls Trump twice urging strikes on the Houthis; Trump declines. US CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper travels to Saudi Arabia for coordination meetings.
- Friday — Four Yemeni government sources report Houthis have taken Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb; two more sources report Houthi capture of Dhubab on the mainland. Satellite imagery shows black smoke near Saudi’s East-West pipeline (unconfirmed as an attack). IEA reports Saudi crude supply fell 2.3 million bpd in August to 6 million bpd — lowest in three-plus decades. Brent crude moves above $100/barrel, on track for a weekly gain over 8%.
- September 25 US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased deal that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lift its blockade of Iranian ports.