
Joe Biden holds a solid 8.5-point lead over President Donald Trump, barely three weeks ahead of Election Day, the inaugural IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll finds.
Biden leads Trump, 51.9%-43.4%, in a four-way 2020 election poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 2.4%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.8%.
In a head-to-head Biden vs. Trump poll, the Democratic nominee holds a commanding 10.4-point advantage, 52.7%-42.3%. Joe Biden holds a 48%-39% lead among likely independent voters. Meanwhile, Biden is having an easier time corralling Democrats than Trump is having in nailing down GOP votes. Biden leads 95%-3% among Democrats. Trump leads 90%-9% among Republicans.
In 2016, almost all presidential election polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump’s 2016 victory. TIPP, IBD’s polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.
Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has a few stark contrasts with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Most obviously, a majority of likely voters back Biden (51.9%). Yet Clinton’s support topped out around 45% in IBD/TIPP presidential election polls in the final weeks of the 2016 race. Further, Biden’s 9-point lead among independents in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll is a big turnaround from 2016. Trump carried independents 43%-42% in 2016, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.The IBD/TIPP 2020 presidential election poll shows Trump winning 52%-44% among men, narrower than his 11-point advantage in 2016. Meanwhile, women favor Biden by a wide 59%-36% margin. The 23-point differential is greater than Trump’s 15-point deficit among women in 2016. White voters favor Trump, 50%-45%, but they backed him by a 15-point margin in 2016. White women plan to vote for Biden over Trump, 51%-45%, after narrowly backing the Republican in 2016. Black voters strongly back Biden, 89%-8%. However, Trump could do better among Hispanic voters than his 28%-66% deficit in 2016. He trails Biden among Hispanics, 39%-54% in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll. Biden is trouncing Trump among voters age 18-44, 62%-32%. Trump has a 51%-46% edge among voters 45-64. The two candidates are tied at 48% among voters 65 and up. Trump won among senior citizens in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows that Biden’s lead has grown from 6.6 points before the first debate to 9.8 points currently.. President Trump is trying to shore up support among seniors, who are far more susceptible to the coronavirus and who have been critical of his handling of the pandemic. Last week, Trump pledged that he would provide free access to the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) antibody drug that he credits with restoring him to full health. The Trump administration also is getting ready to send out drug cards worth $200 to tens of millions of seniors.
Self-described investors, with at least $10,000 in household-owned stocks or mutual funds, back Biden by the slimmest of margins, 49%-48%. The final 2016 IBD presidential election poll showed Trump winning the group, 48%-42%.
Meanwhile, noninvestors are solidly behind Biden, 57%-37%. Regardless of their own voting preferences, investors seem to be warming to a Biden presidency and potential Democratic sweep. That would likely mean higher corporate taxes and higher taxes on investment gains. Yet the stock market’s rally last week came as a Biden victory looked more likely. Wall Street may be relieved that a court fight over the election’s outcome may be avoided. But investors also are hopeful that a Democratic boost in federal spending will offset any downside from tax hikes and more regulation. Nick Note: I hate polling. Unfortunately people like me whoes job is to analyze things have got to consume them like oxygen in an election season. My sniff here is Uncle Joe’s voter tend to overstate their support for the candidate. in other words his supporters are not rock solid. Heil Trump voters tend to be fanatics fiercely loyal and understate their support for Trump. My sniff is polling may be overstating Biden’s lead and understating support for Trump. If i take out my wigiee board the buga buga tells me this is a MUCH closer election then the pools are picking up and the race is very close. Trump has six crowd fests scheduled. All will be jam packed with screaming Trump Chumps packed like sardines in a can and of course big dick real men do not wear masks. And hard nipples kick ass babes obviously do not do liposuction and they do not wear masks either.
Voters name the economy (29%) as the single-most important issue in the 2020 election, followed by the coronavirus response (23%), health care (14%), law and order (11%), race relations (7%) and the Supreme Court (7%).
Trump voters care most about the economy (47%), law and order (23%) and the Supreme Court (11%). Biden voters care most about the coronavirus response (40%), health care (20%), the economy (13%) and race relations (11%).
Biden Vs Trump Voters: Which Are More Committed?
How secure is Joe Biden’s advantage over Donald Trump? A number of questions in the new IBD/TIPP election poll try to tease that out.
President Trump has an advantage when it comes to voter intensity. Among those who intend to vote for Trump, 83% back him strongly, vs. 62% among intended Biden voters.
IBD/TIPP finds that 11% of likely voters say they’re at least somewhat likely to change their mind before Election Day. Yet just 7% of intended Biden voters say they may change their mind, vs. 10% of intended Trump voters.
Despite Biden’s solid polling lead, just 38% of voters expect him to win, while 37% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 48% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and just 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.
IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll Details
The new IBD/TIPP 2020 Election tracking poll reflects a survey of 970 registered and 851 likely voters, from Oct. 7 through Oct. 11. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 321 Democrats, 298 Republicans and 234 independents.
The sample has a credibility interval of +/- 3.5 percentage points. IBD’s polling partner TechnoMetrica uses a multimodal approach using “traditional” telephone methodology utilizing live interviewers supplemented by online surveys. Each day approximately 200 interviews with registered voters are conducted, of which 125 are from telephone and 75 from online. In the telephone sample, roughly 65% of interviews come from a cellphone sample and 35% from a landline sample.