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US DEPLETES ITS DIESEL FUEL RESERVES…., EUROPE REUFSES TO RELASE ITS RESERVES

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Greedy oil companies are supplying US Diesel fuel and heating oil to Europe because they pay twice the price

  • This means US prices are doubling

  • US reserves of heating oil and diesel fuel are crashing

  • Oil companies are the most profitable they have ever been

  • Their is a real danger if winter is sever heating oil sullpies wll run out

Here is the inside story of how the manipulation works. A story Wall Street and oil companies are willing to do anything to stop this from getting out

Once again I find myself on the fireline. Attempts to hack our web sights. This Midnight phone calls. People follow us. Offers of cash. And I told them what I told Bill Clinton, The world gold council, Nasdaq, CME, NFA Wall Street and the rest of the scum bags… KISS MY ASS!

HERE IS THE INSIDE SKINNY:

US distillate inventories are at multi-year lows —

107.4 million barrels as of September 18, 2026, the lowest for this time of year in roughly 45 years, and 12% below the five-year average. The East Coast is 31% below norm.New England heating oil stocks hit an all-time low of 2.3 million barrels. US refiners are running at their highest sustained rates since 2018, and roughly half of Europe’s seaborne diesel now comes from the United States — about 520,000 barrels a day in August.

SUCKING America dry. AS YOU ARE SEEING US INVENTORIES TO RECORD LOWS. While European inventories are their highest ever

Europe, by contrast, sits on enormous emergency stockpiles. 380 million barrels Under EU Directive 2009/119/EC, every member state must hold stocks equal to at least 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption, whichever is greater — and at least one-third must be refined products. Germany held about 92 days as of June, Spain 97, the Netherlands 94. Petroleum Economist’s Paul Hickin puts combined European commercial and government diesel at about 350 million barrels, the largest such pile in the world. The European Commission said in September it sees no diesel shortage in the bloc, and that commercial and emergency stocks are sufficient.

Yet Europe will not draw those stocks to ease prices. IEA doctrine is explicit: the emergency system is “not a tool for price intervention or long-term supply management.” Releases are for severe physical disruptions, not for the market. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday that Europe is among the most exposed regions — “if not the most exposed one” — because it imports “huge amounts of diesel” into winter, with Russia and the Gulf constrained and the United States now considering an export ban of its own. Asked whether the IEA had tried to talk Washington out of a ban, Birol said the agency advises members on what is in their interest and their allies’ interest. He did not claim a veto.

Washington is now testing that doctrine in public. Politico reported Tuesday that the White House may ask European governments to release diesel from strategic reserves as a way to skip a full US export ban. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum put the premise in one sentence: “It is a fact that the Europeans have a lot of diesel reserves.” An industry executive familiar with the talks said the motivation is “to stop a ban.” Reuters, the same day, reported the White House is already urging the EU to draw emergency diesel inventories and is particularly frustrated with France and Germany for delivering only a fraction of what they pledged to the March 400-million-barrel IEA release. Energy Secretary Chris Wright made the same charge: the US and Japan are delivering; several European members are not.

Germany’s answer is already on the record. A spokesperson for the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy said the country is unlikely to agree unless there is an actual shortage. That is the official line. It is also selective. On 30 September, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche — in coordination with Chancellor Friedrich Merz — ordered state-owned Sefe to procure and inject 8 TWh of natural gas by 15 December because German gas storage is only about 58% full, well below the EU average of ~71% and far below last September. Reiche had first asked Sefe to buy “in small steps so as not to alarm the market.” That request is now an order. Berlin will use the state to fill gas tanks. It will not use emergency oil stocks to ease a diesel market it says is not in shortage.

The other side of the Atlantic is not waiting. Moscow on 30 September extended the ban on diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil exports by direct producers through 31 October (it had been due to expire the same day). The stated reason: a stable domestic market during harvest demand. The broader Russian fuel-export ban still runs to 31 January 2027; the jet-fuel ban to 30 November. Russia was the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the United States. Those barrels are not coming back before winter.

The result is a one-way flow. American inventories drain to supply Europe. European emergency barrels sit untouched.

Russian product stays home. Americans pay elevated prices for a tightness that is in part policy-created: the molecule exists, in European tanks and in US export cargoes, but it is not being held for US winter demand. The asymmetry is structural, not accidental. The US has no 90-day product obligation, no refined-product strategic reserve, and no tool to redirect barrels home short of an export ban. Europe has the obligation, the barrels, and the legal right to release them — and chooses not to. Washington’s ask, Germany’s refusal, Birol’s warning, and Russia’s extra month of curbs all point the same way: if the winter is cold, the swing barrel is still an American one.

 

Diesel and Heating Oil: US vs Europe.

Prices. US national averages, excluding California: diesel $6.38 a gallon, heating oil $5.54. The diesel-to-heating-oil gap is about 85 cents. Europe’s weighted averages: diesel around $9.60, heating oil around $7.53, gap about $2.04. Germany: diesel $10.56, heating oil $7.35. France: diesel $10.24, heating oil $8.33. The key driver is taxes — Europe’s excise duties and VAT add roughly 40% to the pump price, while US diesel taxes are only about 60 cents a gallon. Wholesale spot at New York Harbor: heating oil around $5.00, diesel around $5.22

Inventories. EIA, week ending September 18, 2026: total distillate stocks 107.4 million barrels, down about 14% year-over-year, 12% below the five-year average — lowest for this time of year in about 45 years. By region: East Coast 31% below norm, the tightest. Midwest 11% below. Gulf Coast 2% above, normal. Rocky Mountain 10% below. West Coast normal. Northeast heating oil stocks: about 12.7 million barrels — only about 23 days of cover at normal winter draw. Europe, July 2026: EU middle distillates about 372 million barrels, down 5% from two years ago. EU diesel days of cover about 94 days, minimum 90. ARA hub gasoil hit a 4-year low in August.

Trade flows. US share of EU diesel imports: August 2026 about 50%, 2026 year-to-date about 32%, 2025 about 17%, July 2024 about 38%. Context: before the war, Russian diesel made up over 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Gulf diesel exports to Europe are down about 75%. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the main current constraint.

The arbitrage. Why US refiners sell to Europe: European diesel crack hit a record $74.66 a barrel in summer 2026. Gross arbitrage about $41 a barrel, roughly 98 cents a gallon. Domestic US crack about $28. Export premium about $13 a barrel more than selling at home.

On a 300,000-barrel cargo, that’s about $12.4 million IN EXTRA MOEY by sucking down US inventories and selling to Europe

Winter outlook, cold-winter scenario. Northeast heating oil: 12.7 million barrels on hand. Normal winter draw needs about 82 million barrels. Cold winter, plus 20% demand, needs about 99 million. Shortfall versus current stocks: about 86 million barrels. Import need to fill the gap: about 576,000 barrels a day.

Price scenarios for a Northeast household using 800 gallons a winter: at $3.50 a gallon, 2025 winter, $2,800. At $5.50, $4,400. At $6.50, $5,200. At $7.50, $6,000. At $8.50, $6,800. Extra cost at $7.50 versus $3.50: $3,200 per household. Region-wide Northeast consumer spending: at $7.50 a gallon, about $30 billion. At $3.50, about $14 billion. Extra cost about $16 billion. 2022 precedent: Northeast heating oil went from about $3.50 to $6.50 a gallon, up 86%, on similar stock levels — and this year the import pipeline is tighter, so the spike could be worse. Subjective scenario probabilities: mild winter about 30% — prices stay elevated but manageable. Average winter about 40% — $5 to $6 a gallon, some spot shortages. Cold winter about 25% — $6.50 to $8, rationing risk in the Northeast. Severe plus supply shock about 5% — crisis territory.

Wildcards. US export policy: if the US cuts EU diesel exports by 30%, about 54,000 barrels a day, Europe has nowhere to replace them — European cracks spike further, US stocks rebuild, but prices diverge sharply. Strait of Hormuz: if it reopens, Gulf barrels flow back and everything eases; if it stays closed, tightness persists. IEA strategic releases: 400 million barrels released since March, about a third hasn’t reached markets yet, and product releases take weeks to reach consumers. Demand destruction: at $8 a gallon, consumption typically falls 10 to 15%. The molecule problem: in the US, heating oil and diesel are the same molecule — truckers and homeowners compete for the same barrel, and in 2022 that pushed Northeast heating oil to record premiums over diesel.

Bottom line. Not a 1970s-style crisis — no lines at the pump. But a 2022-style price shock is the base case for a cold winter. Risk is asymmetric: upside price risk is much larger than downside. Structural tightness persists into 2027 regardless of weather. If the winter is mild, stocks rebuild and prices ease $1 to $1.50 a gallon by spring. The two things that change everything: US export policy and Hormuz.

If it’s a colder then normal winter their will be diesel fuel and heating oil shortages. Either way at a minim expect prices to double

DIESEL AND HEATING OIL

UNITED STATES vs EUROPE

30 September 2026 · Nick Guarino

US distillate stocks sit at a 45-year seasonal low while Europe is paying a record diesel crack and taking roughly half of its August diesel imports from the United States. Heating oil and diesel are the same molecule. A cold Northeast winter would force households and truckers to bid against each other for a barrel that is already leaving the Atlantic Coast for Europe.

PRICES

Retail

Market

Diesel

Heating oil

Gap

United States*

$6.38 / gal

$5.54 / gal

~$0.85 / gal

Europe (EU wtd.)

~$9.60 / gal

~$7.53 / gal

~$2.04 / gal

Germany

$10.56 / gal

$7.35 / gal

—

France

$10.24 / gal

$8.33 / gal

—

US figures are national averages excluding California. US heating oil is the last official reading, late March 2026.

Taxes and wholesale

Europe’s excise duties and VAT add roughly 40% to the pump price. US diesel taxes are only about $0.60 per gallon.

New York Harbor wholesale: heating oil ~$5.00, diesel ~$5.22. Heating oil is cheaper at wholesale in the offseason; the gap flips in winter.

INVENTORIES

United States (EIA, week ending 18 September 2026). Total distillate stocks: 107.4 million barrels — down ~14% year-over-year, 12% below the five-year average, and the lowest for this time of year in ~45 years.

Region

Vs. seasonal norm

East Coast

31% below (tightest)

Midwest

11% below

Gulf Coast

2% above (normal)

Rocky Mountain

10% below

West Coast

Normal

Northeast heating oil stocks: ~12.7 million barrels — only ~23 days of cover at a normal winter draw.

Europe (July 2026). EU middle distillates: ~372 million barrels, down 5% from two years ago. EU diesel days of cover: ~94 days (minimum 90). ARA hub gasoil hit a 4-year low in August.

TRADE FLOWS

US share of EU diesel imports: August 2026 ~50%; 2026 year-to-date ~32%; 2025 ~17%; July 2024 ~38%.

Before the war, Russian diesel made up over 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Gulf diesel exports to Europe are down ~75%. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the main current constraint.

THE ARBITRAGE

Why US refiners sell to Europe: the European diesel crack hit a record $74.66/barrel in summer 2026. Gross arbitrage is ~$41/barrel (~$0.98/gallon). The domestic US crack is ~$28/barrel, so the export premium is ~$13/barrel more than selling at home. On a 300,000-barrel cargo that is ~$12.4 million.

Fragility: if the crack falls to $40, net falls to ~$7/barrel and the trade stops making sense.

WINTER OUTLOOK — COLD-WINTER SCENARIO

Northeast heating oil on hand: 12.7 million barrels. A normal winter draw is ~82 million barrels; a cold winter (+20% demand) needs ~99 million. Shortfall versus current stocks: ~86 million barrels. Import need to fill the gap: ~576,000 barrels/day.

Price scenarios for a Northeast household (800 gallons/winter)

Retail price

Season bill

$3.50 / gal (2025 winter)

$2,800

$5.50 / gal

$4,400

$6.50 / gal

$5,200

$7.50 / gal

$6,000

$8.50 / gal

$6,800

Extra cost at $7.50 versus $3.50: $3,200 per household. Region-wide Northeast consumer spending at $7.50/gal is ~$30 billion versus ~$14 billion at $3.50/gal in 2025 — an extra ~$16 billion.

2022 precedent: Northeast heating oil went from ~$3.50 to $6.50/gal (+86%) on similar stock levels. This year the import pipeline is tighter, so the spike could be worse.

Subjective scenario probabilities

Case

Probability

Outcome

Mild winter

~30%

Elevated but manageable

Average winter

~40%

$5–6/gal, some spot shortages

Cold winter

~25%

$6.50–8/gal, rationing risk in the Northeast

Severe + shock

~5%

Crisis territory

Sources

EIA, European Commission/Eurostat, OPEC MOMR, Kpler, S&P Global, IEA, Insights Global, Bruegel. Exchange rate ~1.1355 USD/EUR. All figure