The effects of the war in Ukraine are already being felt across the world, from rocking world energy markets to spurring a growing refugee crisis in Europe. But the conflict could have more ripple effects, including sparking a global food crisis. Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 30 percent of global wheat exports, while Russia is the world’s top exporter of fertilizer and a vital amount of the world’s wheat, corn, and barley is trapped in both countries because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The simultaneous disruptions to harvests and fertilizer production are driving up food prices and sending economic shock waves throughout the world. Since Russia’s February 24 invasion, world wheat prices have increased by roughly 21 percent, barley by 33 percent, and some fertilizers by as much as 40 percent. After more than a month of war, economists and aid agencies say the world is facing merging crises that could lead to a global food emergency. Food and fertilizer prices were already climbing to record levels before the conflict due to shipping constraints, high energy costs, and natural disasters. Supply was further strained in the early weeks of the war with Moscow limiting wheat exports and urging its fertilizer producers to temporarily suspend exports. Kyiv also banned exports of wheat and other staples. As the fighting continues and shows no signs of stopping, could the Ukraine war be at a tipping point for a global hunger crisis.
Alex Smith: The main way that the Russian invasion of Ukraine can impact and alter food prices and the world food supply is through the disruption of Ukrainian agricultural exports. Ukraine — and Russia as well — are massive exporters of grain to the world, specifically wheat, corn, barley, as well as a number of different kinds of plants and seed oils. Ukraine is the fifth-largest wheat exporter and the third-largest corn exporter in the world and they export wheat in particular to a lot of developing and lower-middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa, [and] South and Southeast Asia. So if we are to see a continued disruption of [those] wheat and corn exports, we’re likely to see high food prices, but also acute food shortages in specific places. We’re already seeing high food prices. I’m sure most people are aware of this to some degree. Disruptions in Black Sea trade, which is responsible for about 90 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports, has turned commodity traders and the world food market upside down. NN: Its Planting season…And its impossible to sow your fields when the tanks are blasting your tractor to hell. But it gets worse…. The Ukraine export terminals are a pile of rubble. And that is why grains and cooking oil are at record high prices.