Oil Prices Under Pressure Despite Fresh Sanctions on Iran

Oil prices were under pressure early on Tuesday morning despite the Trump administration announcing fresh sanctions on Iran’s oil industry on Monday. President Trump’s recent push for a deal between Russia and Ukraine, his foot-dragging over Canadian and Mexican tariffs, and expectations of OPEC+ supply increases from April onwards have seen interest in crude oil futures plunge to multi-month lows.

Open interest in WTI futures is now the lowest in nine months, falling to 2.12 million lots in the week ending February 18 according to CFTC data, with investors switching en masse to gold.

The net length held by hedge funds and other money managers has posted four straight week-over-week declines and now stands at the equivalent of 103 million barrels, its lowest since October 2024. After hedge funds were incessantly shorting diesel futures in the US between June 2024 and January 2025, positioning in the ULSD futures contract finally turned long and net length ticked in at 11,872 lots in CFTC’s most recent data, suggesting tight distillate stocks could be a moderately bullish factor over the upcoming weeks. At the same time that US-Russia talks on a final Ukraine settlement are underway, the Trump administration has been tightening the screws on Iranian oil supply. The White House announced yet another round of sanctions on anyone believed to facilitate Tehran’s exports to China. Despite that move, ICE Brent futures currently trading under $74 per barrel, beneath the $74.29-77.00 per barrel range that has so far contained every single settlement this month. The US Treasury Department imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil industry this Monday, blacklisting more than 30 brokers and shipping companies for their alleged participation in trades, in line with President Trump’s maximum pressure pledge on Tehran.

NN Buy the shit out of oil

Bitcoin slumps 5%, falls below $92,000

Bitcoin extended its losses on Tuesday, dropping below $87,000 for the first time since November 14, 2024. The fall in cryptocurrencies comes as United States President Donald Trump confirmed that his tariff agenda is “moving very rapidly,” which caused investors to consider the implications of the economic uncertainty on the global markets. Investors were also still digesting the major hacker attack on the cryptocurrency exchange Bybit that resulted in more than $1.5 billion in Ethereum being stolen.

Bitcoin dropped by 5.16% at 5:23 am ET and sold for $86,796. Meanwhile, Ethereum declined by 6.25%, selling for $2,356 at 5:26 am ET.

 

Oil up…. climbs on Iraq’s output cuts

Oil prices rose by more than 1% on Monday after Iraq, a member of OPEC, revealed plans to address overproduction by implementing further output cuts. This move comes as the country gears up to obtain 185,000 barrels of oil from the Kurdistan Region, marking the initial phase of reinitiating exports through the Ceyhan pipeline pending Turkey’s approval.

“The Iraqi Ministry of Oil affirms its full commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, the additional agreed cuts, and to compensate for excess output from previous months,” the Iraqi oil ministry said. According to an agreement with OPEC+, Iraq is committed to producing four million barrels of oil per day, of which 700,000 barrels are used domestically.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for deliveries in April improved by 1.22% at 12:09 pm ET, going for $70.81 per barrel. Brent for settlements in April added 1.01% a minute later and sold for $74.71 per barrel.

Israel sends tanks into West Bank

JENIN, West Bank (AP) — Israeli tanks moved into the occupied West Bank on Sunday for the first time in decades in what Palestinian authorities called a “dangerous escalation,” after the defense minister said troops will remain in parts of the territory for a year and tens of thousands of Palestinians who have fled cannot return. Associated Press journalists saw several tanks move along unpaved tracks into Jenin, long a bastion of armed struggle against Israel. Israel is deepening its crackdown on the Palestinian territory and has said it is determined to stamp out militancy amid a rise in attacks. It launched the offensive in the northern West Bank on Jan. 21 — two days after the current ceasefire in Gaza took hold — and expanded it to nearby areas. Palestinians view the deadly raids as part of an effort to cement Israeli control over the territory, where 3 million Palestinians live under military rule. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to “increase the intensity of the activity to thwart terrorism” in all refugee camps in the West Bank. “We will not allow the return of residents, and we will not allow terrorism to return and grow,” he said. Earlier, Katz said he had instructed the military to prepare for “an extended stay” in some of the West Bank’s urban refugee camps from which about 40,000 Palestinians have fled, leaving them “emptied of residents.” The camps are home to descendants of Palestinians who fled during wars with Israel decades ago. It was not clear how long Palestinians would be prevented from returning. Katz said Israeli troops would stay “for the coming year.” Netanyahu said they would stay “as long as needed. ”Tanks were last deployed in the West Bank in 2002, when Israel fought a deadly Palestinian uprising. The Palestinian foreign ministry called the Israeli moves “a dangerous escalation of the situation in the West Bank,” and urged the international community to intervene in what it termed Israel’s illegal “aggression.” “Even if they stay, we will return to the camp at the end,” said Mohamed al-Sadi, one of those displaced from Jenin. “This camp is ours. We have no other place to go.

Ukraine: In last stages of minerals deal with US

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration Olga Stefanishyna said on Monday that Ukraine and the United States are in the “last stages” of negotiations on the development of Ukrainian mineral deposits. “The negotiations have been very constructive, with nearly all key details finalized,” she stated, adding that she hopes the deal will be signed quickly. Last week, the Trump administration said it is looking for “payback” for $500 billion in aid given to Ukraine. Reports claimed the US presented Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a proposal that would give Washington 50% of revenues from resource extraction and new licenses, as well as from Ukrainian fossil fuels and ports. Zelensky’s refusal to sign the agreement provoked a public dispute with US President Donald Trump and brought into question future US support for Ukraine..

Oil Traders Dropping Long Position

candle stick assholes shorting

Crude oil traders have been reducing their exposure to contracts for the commodity in a sign that sentiment is yet again changing.

Net-long bets on West Texas Intermediate fell for the fourth week in a row, reaching the lowest since last October, Bloomberg reported today, citing data from the ICE stock exchange and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The change was caused both by a decline in net-long position and an expansion in net-short ones, the report noted, as a potential peace deal for Ukraine, a resumption in oil exports from Kurdistan, and tariffs combine to sour optimism. The U.S. and Russia indicated earlier this month they are both willing to negotiate an end to the war, which would entail the lifting of Western sanctions on Russia, as suggested by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Meanwhile, the Iraqi government said on Saturday it had restarted  crude oil exports from the northern region of Kurdistan after more than a year’s suspension amid a dispute with Turkey, which received the Kurdish oil flow to then move it into international markets. The news followed reports that the U.S. had pressured Baghdad to restart the shipments. The ultimatum was simple: restart Kurdish oil exports through the shuttered pipeline—or else suffer the same fate as Iran with regard to U.S. sanctions. There has been some concern that the restart could raise OPEC+ compliance questions, as Iraq is under quota pressure.

However, analysts suggest it may simply shift Kurdish oil from smuggling routes to legal exports rather than adding fresh supply.

Both developments, however, have been bearish for oil prices, as has Trump’s tariff offensive against trading partners. Perhaps the part most directly related to oil was the additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports that triggered a response by Beijing in the form of a 10% tariff on U.S. crude oil imports into the world’s biggest importer.

EU adopts new Russia sanctions package

The European Union foreign ministers have approved new sanctions on Russia amid the third anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine, the European Council said in a statement on Monday.

“This new round of sanctions not only targets the Russian shadow fleet but those who support the operation of unsafe oil tankers, videogame controllers used to pilot drones, banks used to circumvent our sanctions, and propaganda outlets used to spout lies,” EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas stated.

The Council revealed that the new sanctions target 48 individuals and 35 entities threatening Ukraine’s territorial integrity and independence. Additionally, the EU sanctioned 13 regional banks and 74 vessels originating from third countries said to be part of Russian President Vladimir “Putin’s shadow fleet circumventing the oil price cap mechanism.” Finally, eight Russian media outlets have been banned from broadcasting in the EU.

NN: The noose tightens around  Russia’s neck

These are significant sanctions.  Further stymieing the  ability of the Russians to bank, get insurance,  move, load, unload and sell the black Mike Market oil that is the life blood of their war effort. these sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet this the potential of removing significant black black market oil from the market.  Please note conveniently  these turn of events are  being ignored by the oil market.  it’s something I believe they’ll regret because there is no peace in the valley. There is no plan that removes Russian sanctions. There is no peace in the Ukraine. And right now they’re basically carving slicing and dicing Ukraine into tiny little pieces. Russia seizing territorial. The European seizing their agricultural industry. And trump demanding his pound of flesh including a gallon of blood to take their minerals. None of this is conducive for  for a peace deal despite the PR spin

BYE BYE ByBit got hacked for billions

FIRST QANTIUM COMPUTER HACK

Of course they will never admit it.

Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit said on Sunday that transactions on the platform have returned to normal following a massive hacker attack on February 21.

“Following yesterday’s security incident involving unauthorized activities in our ETH cold wallet, Bybit is pleased to announce the full restoration of services and significant progress in our recovery efforts,” Bybit said in a press release, adding that “Deposit and Withdrawal Activity has returned to pre-incident levels.”

Earlier, the crypto exchange disclosed the attack on its Ethereum wallet,

stressing over 400,000 ETH and stETH worth more than $1.5 billion were stolen in the security breach.

Now Bybit said that it managed to retrieve only 15,000 cmETH, valued at approximately $42.76 million, in collaboration with the mETH Protocol.

NN: Its started… Q-day!

Zelensky said to still not be ready to sign US minerals deal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is still not ready to ink the minerals agreement proposed by the United States, Sky News reported on Saturday citing a Ukrainian source.

“The agreement is not yet ready to be signed, there are a number of problematic issues, and in the current form of the draft, the president is not ready to accept it,” the source detailed, adding that the agreement doesn’t reflect a partnership and contains “only unilateral commitments by Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, just a day prior, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz commented that “in the very short term” Zelensky would sign the deal.

Russia has stopped pumping oil to two refineries…. Earlier this week Russia’s largest oil pumping station disabled in drone attack

Ukrainian drones hit oil pumping facility in Krasnodar

Today February 22 Russia was hit by two new kamikaze drone strikes on oil refineries as  Ukraine targets Vladimir Putin’s economical centers. Footage showed a massive blaze at Syzran in Samara region with huge flames at the key Rosneft installation. Another Ukrainian drone hit a second oil refinery at Novokuibyshevsk in the same region. This came as Russian border city Belgorod again faced intense shelling from Ukraine. The strikes in Samara region came as Russians prepared for a second day of voting in what is widely seen as a rigged election to ensure the Kremlin dictator, 71, wins a new six-year term with a seeming mandate to carry on a war that has seen some 400,000 of his people killed or maimed. The explosions at the Samara region plants came around 6am, according to reports. The refineries are more than 600 miles from the nearest Ukrainian territory. It means Ukraine has successfully hit seven oil refineries in five days. Drones belonging to Ukraine’s Security Service struck an oil pumping facility in Russia’s Krasnodar region, RBC-Ukraine reported on Saturday citing sources from special services. According to the sources, the Novovelichkovskaya oil pumping station, which is considered one of the main oil transporting facilities in Kuban, was the target of this strike. It was further stated that a fire broke out, leading to a complete power outage and emergency stop of all the operations.

Earlier this week Russia’s largest oil pumping station disabled in drone attack

“On Feb. 17, 2025, the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was attacked by UAVs,” the statement said. According to Russian reports, seven drones carried out the strike. Officials stated that no personnel were injured. “At the moment, the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station is out of service. Oil transportation via the Tengiz–Novorossiysk pipeline system continues at reduced pumping rates, bypassing the station. The Kropotkinskaya station, located in the Kavkazsky district of Kuban, is the largest CPC oil pumping station on Russian territory,” the report added.. According to the Shot Telegram channel, debris from one of the drones fell near the village of Severskaya, close to the oil refinery, igniting a fire. Veniamin Kondratyev, governor of Russia’s Krasnodar Krai, confirmed the drone attack, stating that debris “damaged 12 residential houses.” However, he did not comment on the strike at the Ilsky oil refinery or the reported fire. Earlier, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NRC) reported that a swarm of drones had attacked the Ilsky oil refinery overnight on Feb. 17. The refinery is one of the key facilities of its kind in southern Russia.