Author: BlackMask Financial

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OPEC+ considers delay to April oil supply increases

OPEC+ is weighing yet another delay to its plan to unwind voluntary production cuts and resume monthly supply hikes from April, despite President Donald Trump’s calls for the group to lower prices, Bloomberg reported citing unnamed delegates. If it decides to push back the move, it’d be the fourth time that the Saudi Arabia-led oil producing alliance has delayed plans to restart production hikes since 2022. While a decision will likely be finalized in the coming weeks, the group is split on how to proceed. A delegate cited in the report said global oil markets continue to be too fragile to restart production. OPEC+ in 2022 agreed to cut oil production by 2M barrels per day to support oil prices, as well as additional voluntary cuts by eight members. The alliance first unveiled plans to revive production last June, but postponed the move three times amid China’s slowing oil demand and supplies swelling in the Americas. Trump last month called on OPEC+ to lower oil prices, implying a need to raise output. But the International Energy Agency continues to expect the alliance to call off plans to revive production, as it sees global supplies overshooting demand by 450,000 bbl/day this year.

Nick Note let’s get real here does anyone really believe that OPEC is happy with oil at $75 a barrel? I think not the Saudis are hosting the negotiations between the US and Russia over the Ukraine war. The Saudis BFF is Russia the two of them dominate world export oil production. Their is only 1 reason why the Saudis has got their dick in the wick. That’s because the one thing they don’t want to come out of this negotiation is lifting of sanctions.  In such a way that it increases the global oil supply and brings prices lower. The Saudis are inserted themselves into the process is  to protect their own selfish interests.  I’ll have more of this story  throughout the day.  But rest assured OPEC is not going to increase production no way in hell and oil prices are not going to go much  lower until such time as their is peace in the valley. And sanctions are lifted. And the  sword dangling over the head of the world market is what happens with Iran.  Till these issues are resolved oil prices are going to stay steady and go higher on balance.

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US Aims to Cut Iranian Oil Flows by Over 90 Pct

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US aims to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to less than 10 percent of current levels as President Donald Trump renews a campaign of “maximum pressure” on Tehran’s nuclear program.

“We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to the 100,000 barrels-a-day of oil exports” shipped during Trump’s first term, Bessent said in a Friday interview with Fox Business. The country is exporting 1.5 million-1.6 million barrels per day now, he said. NN: This is bogus… Iran is exporting 3.8 mullion barrels per day

Bessent also said he would escalate sanctions on Russian energy if asked to do so by the president. Oil futures jumped after his remarks, with Brent crude trading as much as 1.1 percent higher at $75.85 a barrel. Last week, Trump signed a directive intended to ramp up economic pressure on Iran, renewing the tough stance taken during his first term, in an effort to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Oil revenues are enabling Iran to fund “terrorist activities around the world,” Bessent said.“The Chinese, perhaps Indians, are buying the sanctioned Iranian oil, and that is unacceptable,” he told Fox Business. Squeezing exports to 100,000 barrels per day will leave Iran in “severe economic distress,” Bessent said. The country’s internal numbers show its economy is “quite fragile right now” as a result of “massive inflation” and a “gigantic budget deficit,” he said. The treasury secretary’s comments struck a slightly harder tone than that adopted by Trump, who said last week he was reluctant to sign the order targeting Iran and hoped for an agreement to avoid its implementation. In the days leading up to Trump’s inauguration Jan. 20, oil refiners in Asia scoured for alternative supplies in case his administration crimped access to Iranian or Russian barrels. But some of those concerns ebbed after the announcement of his first measures, which concentrated on just three tankers.  For the time being, the OPEC member’s production remains resilient. Iran pumped an average of 3.32 million barrels a day of crude in January, close to the highest level since Trump launched his previous crackdown in 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

NN: For a in depth discussion see yesterdays BlackMask Market News Commentary Titled: New Algo Math

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Russian Oil Output May Dip Further on Sanctions

  • U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil and shipping sectors havereduced Russian crude exports.
  • Higher oil prices caused by sanctions paradoxically increased Russia’s oil and fuel revenues by $900 million 

In January this year, the outgoing Biden administration slapped its last round of sanctions on Russia. They targeted specifically the shipping industry and the oil industry—and helped oil prices start the year with a gain. Now, these sanctions could cause a marked dip in Russian oil production. Yet it is unclear how long the dip would last. Reuters reported this week that it had talked to energy industry executives and traders who said Russia has no choice but to start crimping oil production because it doesn’t have enough sanction-free tankers to carry its crude abroad after the latest sanctions. Also, Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries are making an increase in local processing more difficult, essentially leaving Russia’s energy majors no choice but to cut output.

The report noted that loadings of Russian crude from key ports were down by 17% in January from a year earlier and that, according to industry insiders, production may need to be reduced to below 9 million barrels daily.

Sources say that oil production in January actually fell below 9 million barrels daily to 8.96 million barrels daily. What’s more, refining rates increased despite the Ukrainian drone attacks on oil-processing facilities. In other words, the information reported by Reuters may be inaccurate, especially in the context of reports that Indian oil importers are currently hard at work crafting ways to continue receiving Russian crude without running afoul of U.S. sanctions, confirming the information reported by the International Energy Agency and disputing the Reuters report. The more important bit, however, is that Russia’s revenues from the exports of crude oil and fuels also went up in January, again according to the International Energy Agency, which may not be the most reliable source of forecast information but on hard data from the recent past it tends to be more credible. The higher prices caused by the Biden admin’s sanctions pushed Russia’s oil and fuels revenues higher by $900 million, the International Energy Agency calculated, for a total of $15.8 billion, in yet more evidence that sanctions critics may very well have a point in saying that the punitive measures often have unintended and the opposite of the intended results. A peace deal is not a certainty, although there does seem to be a marked willingness on both sides to put an end to the fighting. Yet the implications of such a development for Russia’s energy industry—specifically, oil production—are less clear. Russia is bound by its OPEC+ commitment to keep a cap on oil production. If the war in Ukraine ends and the U.S. lifts sanctions, the war premium on international oil prices will vanish, forcing OPEC+ to keep production lower for longer in order to avoid a sharp drop in prices. Demand for crude oil, meanwhile, may be working in OPEC+’s favor, with the International Energy Agency predicting a growth rate of 1.1 million barrels daily for this year, which was a 50,000-bpd upward revision of earlier forecasts. That would be welcome news to large producers such as Russia, especially if they are freshly emerging from sanctions that may have boosted revenues but have also boosted expenses related to getting these revenues. According to one Reuters source from the Russian oil industry, “Everyone is waiting for this war to be over.”

NN: It ain’t over until Ukraine surrenders. No mater what Trump says
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Rubio says Iran ‘greatest’ instability in Middle East

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio sharply criticized Iran during a press briefing, calling it the “single greatest source of instability” in the Middle East. Rubio emphasized that Iran’s support for militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah destabilizes the region, particularly in Syria and the West Bank. He further warned of the dangers posed by a nuclear-capable Iran, saying it could become immune to international pressure and action. “There can never be a nuclear Iran” he concluded. Rubio also reiterated that US President Donald Trump is clear in stating that Hamas must be “eliminated” as both a military and governmental force. He also stressed that the US and Israeli goals in Lebanon are aligned, aiming for a strong Lebanese state capable of disarming Hezbollah.

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US, Russian officials to meet next week….  US to hold  peace  talks with Russia without Europe or Kyiv

High-ranking officials from the United States and Russia will meet in Saudi Arabia next week and discuss, among other topics, a future encounter between their respective presidents, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, it was reported on Saturday. According to Bloomberg, the US delegation will be led by Special Envoy to the Middle East Steven Witkoff and National Security Advisor (NSA) Michael Waltz. The main topic of the meeting will be the conflict in Ukraine, with Kiev’s representatives planned to attend as well. On the other hand, the European Union is not projected to have any delegates there. The report came after the allegations Trump and Putin could meet in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.

 United States will hold  peace  talks with Russia without Europe or Kyiv

While American officials prepared on Sunday for the start of talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine, European leaders were moving to formulate a response to President Trump’s rapid push for a settlement that appeared to leave them and Ukrainian officials with no clear role in the process. The Russian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, where the talks are to take place this week, met Sunday with the kingdom’s foreign minister. Two senior Trump administration officials — Mike Waltz, and the Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff — will fly to Saudi Arabia to join Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the negotiations, Mr. Witkoff said Sunday in an interview with Fox News. The preparations come after a flurry of diplomatic discussions over the past several days that included a conversation between Mr. Rubio and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov. On Sunday, Mr. Rubio said in an interview from Jerusalem with CBS News that if an opportunity presented itself for a “broader conversation that would involve Ukraine and would involve the end of the war, and would involve our allies all over the world, particularly in Europe,” the United States would explore it. He did not say which Russian officials would be in Riyadh this week, and noted that he had made plans earlier to be in Saudi Arabia anyway during this trip, his first to the Middle East as secretary of state. “Nothing’s been finalized yet,” he said. The meeting with Russia, while preliminary, would signal the start of Mr. Trump’s accelerated timetable for a deal and his seeming determination to conduct negotiations with Russia alone, at least for now. On Monday, the leaders of France, Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain the Netherlands and Denmark, and the top officials of the European Union and NATO, will convene in Paris in an emergency meeting on the war in Ukraine and European security, French officials said Sunday. The aim is to coordinate a response to the Trump administration’s opening of talks with Russia without European participation.

NN: interesting concept. Trust Putin…. really?
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Trump signs order creating Energy Dominance Council

United States President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday establishing a national Energy Dominance Council to boost US fossil fuel production. The plan to create the council was first mentioned last November, saying it would be responsible for coordinating energy policy and regulation across the federal government. In addition, Trump signed a Commonwealth LNG export license, further expanding the US role in global energy markets. The president also took the opportunity to repeal Biden’s ban on 625 million acres of offshore land, opening it up to energy exploration.

Nick Note This is a great example of the dangers of doing things by decree which is basically what executive orders are. Trump is opening up the National Dominance Energy Council to boost us fossil fuel production. The oil market  got excited. Price  dropped as we expected. Giving us further buying opportunities.  But the devil’s always in  the details . They approve a pending  permit for an LNG plant. That will take 3 to 5 years to build.  They opened up a lot of the government lands that Biden took out of the reach of us oil drillers. And in three years wells in those blocks will come into production. Finally Anwar in Alaska is open for oil leases.  Which trump ballyhooed correctly  has as much as if not more oil than Saudi Arabia. Those wells when drilled will produce a lot of oil 5 years from now.  In the meantime the market faces several crisis including the war in Ukraine which again despite all the brocalls with Putin  has not been resolved.  The crisis with Iran looms large on the radar screen. They may have to be sanction or bombed into submission.  They’re not cooperating and he hasn’t convinced them yet he is serious.

So the little boys and girls at the algo trading desks have not yet grasped reality. Sanctions are still on AND no new oil supplies have made it to market yet. So at this point drill bobby drill is still a campaign slogan

And OPEC will continue to hold 3 million barrels a day of oil off the market.

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Chernobyl attack shows Putin does not want peace

European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas stated at the Munich Security Conference 2025 on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not truly seek peace in Ukraine. When asked why she believes the leader will not adhere to the ceasefire deal if such was reached, Kallas pointed to the drone attack on Chernobyl’s Nuclear Station 4 reactor confinement allegedly committed by Moscow forces today. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the Chernobyl shield suffered “significant” damage, accusing Russia of being “the only state in the world” capable of attacking nuclear power plants. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed these claims, stating that such assertions were likely a “provocation and fabrication” by the Kiev government.

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Trump Cracks Down on Iran Oil

  • The Trump administration has announced plans to significantly reduce Iran’s oil exports to just 100,000 barrels per day through a renewed “maximum pressure” campaign.
  • This aggressive move aims to cripple Iran’s economy by severely limiting its oil revenues.
  • However, Iran has a history of successfully circumventing sanctions, raising questions about the effectiveness of this latest effort.

The Trump administration is back on the “maximum pressure” train, and this time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says they’re gunning to slash Iran’s oil exports to a mere 100,000 barrels per day—down from its current 1.5-1.6 million bpd. That would equate to a 90% drop. The announcement sent oil prices slightly higher today as traders mull the likelihood of potential supply disruptions. It sounds bold, except history suggests that Iran’s oil trade is a lot slipperier than Washington would like. The Islamic Republic has spent years perfecting the art of dodging sanctions—deploying a “dark fleet” of shadowy tankers, engaging in ship-to-ship transfers in the middle of the ocean, and running crude through willing intermediaries, particularly China and India. In short, Iran’s been here and done that. If the U.S. were to succeed in hammering Iran’s exports down to 100,000 bpd, Iran’s economy would take a serious beating. But that’s a big “if.” Even Trump himself seemed hesitant, reportedly reluctant to sign the latest order. Meanwhile, OPEC—led by heavyweights like Saudi Arabia—is keeping a close eye on the situation, and Iran is already calling for action against the U.S. measures. The cartel has been trying to keep the oil market balanced, and a massive drop in Iranian exports would shake things up—particularly as it comes on the heels of a stricter crackdown on Russian crude oil exports as well.

A successful curb of both Iranian and Russian oil flows would have a profound effect on global crude markets.

For now, the market is reacting with slightly higher prices. The real question, however, is whether this crackdown will amount to much more than noise. Iran has proven time and again that it can keep its oil moving, no matter how many sanctions the U.S. throws at it.

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Israeli FM: Preventing Iran’s nuclear bomb is key

Israel Foreign Minister Gideon Saar emphasized on Friday at the Munich Security Conference that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains Israel’s top priority. During his presentation, he warned that an Iranian nuclear capability would endanger not only Israel but also Europe and the broader Middle East. While he acknowledged that diplomacy could be a viable path, he cautioned against returning to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) without significant changes. “If there is a way to achieve it by political means, it is good,” he said but insisted that any new deal must be fundamentally different.

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Kiev: Chernobyl shield took significant damage….. The worlds largest deadliest active Tomb and its just been OPENED

KYIV, Feb 14 (Reuters) – A Russian drone attack caused significant damage to the NEW radiation shelter of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant overnight, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday. Chornobyl was the site of the world’s worst civil nuclear catastrophe when one of its four reactors exploded in 1986. That reactor is now enveloped by a protective shelter, known as a sarcophagus, to contain the lingering radiation. The Russian drone struck the shelter of the destroyed power unit at the plant, causing a fire that has since been extinguished, he said. “As of now, radiation levels have not increased and are being constantly monitored,” Zelenskiy said, adding that:
an initial assessment had found significant damage.
“The only country in the world that attacks such sites, occupies nuclear power plants, and wages war without any regard for the consequences is today’s Russia,” he said.
NN: Call this a shot across the  bow…. Negotiations at nuclear disaster gun point. This place is a tomb hiding a boiling nuclear cauldron. And it has just been torn open by the Russians.