Author: BlackMask Financial

United States Vice President JD Vance warned in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that the US could hit Russia with sanctions and “potentially” military action should Russian President Vladimir Putin fail to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine that guarantees the country’s long-term independence. Vance said that the possibility of sending US troops to Ukraine remains “on the table” if Russia doesn’t negotiate in good faith. “There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage” that the US could utilize against Moscow, Vance stressed.

Speaking about how the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could turn out, Vance said that he thinks that “there is a deal that is going to come out of this that’s going to shock a lot of people.”

“The president is not going to go in this with blinders on,” he stressed. “He’s going to say, ‘Everything is on the table, let’s make a deal.”

Trump: Maybe Russia will give up a lot, maybe they won’t

Nick Note: That was the shortest honeymoon  in history. Trump had his bromance with Putin and it was a Love Fest…. Good cop!  Now we hear from the bad cop Vance  trump’s bulldog kick ass Real man man with balls. Something new in that job.  Especially after he replaced the Sanfagcisco Fag Hag Mssss WOK dope congenital idiot  Harris. Vance let  Putin  know that military options are on the table. The message here is the Ukraine war has got to end. The oil market celebrated what they thought was peace in the Ukraine. Brent Oil dropped to $73.90 a barrel. Pretty much a strait drop from the recent $77.00 high. And of course we took profits in our Play it Again Sam trade.  And harvested the Low hanging Fruit. Just in time. Because the market got a shot in the ass and woke up to the fact their is no peace and no lifting of the  sanctions on Russian Oil. Brent crude reversed on a dime and is now trading around $74.90 . This reality check is opening up our Triple Decker Trade. Trumps call was only the  first step in arranging of the terms of Ukraine’s surrender.  And the dividing up the spoils of war Ukraine’s assets which are formable. 10% of the world’s minerals are located Ukraine.  It’s an  incredible country the breadbasket of Europe.  When we talk about the minerals  they have some of the highest grade uranium deposits in the world.  It has vast amounts of coal , oil and natural gas along the Baltic Coast.  It has almost every known mineral in the world including one of worlds  largest known deposit of  vital lithium.  It’s all up for grabs and peace is going to be tough to negotiate because everybody wants a piece of the pie

United States President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on Thursday, pledging to impose levies on foreign goods equal to the tariffs other countries charge on American products. “No more, no less. In other words, they charge us on tax or tariff and we charge them the exact same tax or tariff. Very simple,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office upon signing the order. The president asserted that other nations impose significantly higher tariffs on the United States than Washington does on them. “Those days are over,” Trump emphasized. Since assuming office, the 47th president has introduced a series of trade measures, including a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, which has since been postponed until the first week of March. Additionally, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports on top of existing duties, alongside a 25% levy on steel and aluminum imports.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ensured on Thursday that his country is not ready to accept any peace agreements made between Russia and the United States without Kiev.Speaking to reporters, Zelensky said the European Union should be included in Ukraine peace talks. “Today it’s important that everything does not go according to Putin’s plan, in which he wants to do everything to make his negotiations bilateral [with the US],” Zelensky stated. He further noted that he did not discuss Ukraine’s NATO membership in yesterday’s call with US President Donald Trump, emphasizing that he knows Washington does not want Kiev to join the alliance.

NN Feel sorry for him. He has not figured out just yet how screwed he is. I guess he needs some more  time to process.

Crude oil prices moved lower on Thursday on the prospect of a peace deal for Ukraine, following a statement by President Donald Trump who said the presidents of both Russia and Ukraine had separately expressed a willingness to reach a peace deal. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $74.55 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $70.79 a barrel, after booking another daily drop Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported a weekly inventory build of 4.1 million barrels for the week to February 7. Meanwhile, President Trump said, after talking with Russia’s Vladimir Putin for over an hour that “He wants it to end. He doesn’t want to end it and then go back to fighting six months later.” The U.S. president added “I think we’re on the way to getting peace. I think President Putin wants peace, President Zelenskiy wants peace and I want peace. I just want to see people stop getting killed,” as quoted by Reuters. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that Ukraine should not be hoping for a return to its pre-2014 borders, which was “unrealistic” and added that NATO membership is also out of the question. “We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective,” Hegseth said, adding “Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.”

A peace deal could lead to the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy industry, which would potentially boost the international supply of Russian crude, dampening prices.

However, global supplies have tightened, with energy market analyst John Kemp reporting that OECD inventories have fallen to the lowest since 2022. This has put a floor on oil prices, Kemp wrote in a recent report. The prospect of a peace deal for Ukraine could move that floor lower.

nn: making sausages….. filling a plastic tube full of shit

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on Thursday that global oil demand growth is expected to average 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, rising from 870,000 bpd in 2024. The forecast was revised slightly upward from the agency’s previous expectations.

China is set to contribute most to the 2025 demand growth despite its share of global increase falling to 19%, while India and Other Asia are expected to contribute a combined 500,000 bpd to global demand growth.

Meanwhile, global oil supply, which stood at 102.7 million bpod in 2024, is forecast to grow by 1.6 million bpd to 104.5 this year. “Fresh US sanctions on Russia and Iran roiled markets at the start of the year but they have yet to materially impact global oil supply. Iranian crude oil exports are only marginally lower while Russian flows, so far, continue largely unaffected,” the IEA stated.

you can read the actual report  by clicking on more

Continue reading “IEA: Oil demand seen growing by 1.1M bpd in 2025”

“I think we’re on the way to peace with Russia and Ukraine,” United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday in the Oval Office, adding, however, that it is unlikely that Ukraine will get all its land back. He further detailed that he will likely meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia for the first time, with the involvement of the Saudi Crown Prince. He shared that Putin told him he wanted to see the war end and not go back to it “six months later.” On the question of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the US head of state commented that he doesn’t think “it’s practical” for Kiev to have a NATO membership. When asked whether he sees Ukraine as an equal member in the peace process, Trump didn’t give a straight answer and only stated that “they have to make peace.”

Nick Note: As expected trump has forced a peace deal in the Ukraine. And our oil trade obviously envisioned such an event and  traded accordingly. You should have another smile on your face.  My comment on the deal is it’s not a good one for the Ukraine or Europe.  Its one of these slamma Bamma Jamma. Make  a deal, get a headline and run. Look Ukraine lost the war. We’re now arranging their terms of their surrender and they’re not surrendering under very good terms. They really lost years ago when they foolishly gave up their nukes. They will pay the price today because they are going to lose a lot of territory and wealth. They are not going to get  NATO membership. Not now not ever. The best Ukraine can hope for is  some backhanded agreement of some loosely defined protection from another Russian incursion. And it gets worse. Because of war debt  Ukraine assets will be  divided up between Russia, Europe and he US.  Ukraine’s resource will be sliced and diced. You’re talking about the oil and offshore natural gas. Agricultural resources for Europe from the great planes, You have a lot of a rare Earth minerals. Oil is automatically taken by  the capture of key territories that Russia’s so cleverly grabbed. The breadbasket of the great plains of the Ukraine will be taken by the Europeans. And America has taken the rights to the rare earth minerals especially lithium. It’s basically a surrender under the worst possible terms. And I’m not even sure that Ukraine will exist for another 10 years as a free from Russia country. I think it’s going continue to be sliced and diced……  anyway it’s what they call peace

United States President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he had a “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss Ukraine, the Middle East and artificial intelligence, among other topics. “We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together. But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, ‘COMMON SENSE,'” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding that the world leaders agreed to start the negotiations “immediately” and that he will notify Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of the conversation. Trump also thanked Putin for the release of the American citizen Marc Fogel and expressed his optimism about a “successful conclusion, hopefully soon.”

nn: this is the at of the deal… not the deal

Zelensky, Trump talk ‘opportunities to achieve peace’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took to X on Wednesday to say he discussed “opportunities to achieve peace” with Russia in a conversation with US President Donald Trump. “I had a meaningful conversation with POTUS. We long talked about opportunities to achieve peace, discussed our readiness to work together at the team level, and Ukraine’s technological capabilities—including drones and other advanced industries. I am grateful to President Trump for his interest in what we can accomplish together, ” Zelensky added. Earlier, Trump announced he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and agreed to begin negotiations to broker a ceasefire to the war in Ukraine. “President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, ‘COMMON SENSE.’ We both believe very strongly in it. We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations,” Trump wrote.

OPEC has signaled it would not change its production policy despite calls from the U.S. president to bring more oil to market. “We read the market. We analyze the supply, demand, away from political considerations, purely on technical, sound technical considerations, and we take the decisions that provide stability in the market,” the cartel’s secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said, as quoted by Reuters. Speaking at the India Energy Week, al-Ghais added “If you look at oil, also last year, oil was probably the least volatile commodity, and I think that’s greatly down to the decisions and the clarity that we take it (at) OPEC+. So this is our objective. This is what we will keep doing.” President Donald Trump has called on OPEC to start unwinding its production cuts in order to bring down global oil prices and hasten the end of the Ukraine war. However, these calls have not met with a positive reaction from either OPEC or, indeed, the U.S. oil industry. OPEC and its partners in OPEC+ plan to start gradually increasing oil production from April—but only if the price is right, as the producers’ group has made clear repeatedly. It seems, however, that the price may not be right, if the U.S. Energy Information Administration is correct in its latest production forecast. In the February edition of its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expected global hydrocarbon liquids production to rise by 1.9 million barrels daily this year, including from OPEC as it relaxes its cuts. The rest of the increase will come from higher production from non-OPEC countries, the EIA said. On the other hand, the federal agency also predicted that current OPEC+ cuts will keep a cap on global oil inventories through the first quarter of the year, which could lend some support to prices, potentially motivating a relaxation of the production cuts.

U.S. sanctions against Russia’s oil exports and trade should not hinder Russian energy trade with India, Russia’s first deputy energy minister, Pavel Sorokin, said on Tuesday. Indian refiners are scrambling for alternatives after the U.S. sanctions designated hundreds of tankers, as well as oil traders, last month. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the bans on Russian oil in the West, India has become a key buyer of Russian crude, alongside China. Russia, for its part, became the single biggest oil supplier to India, the world’s third-largest oil importer. Now the sanctions have reduced the availability of non-sanctioned tankers to carry out the trades. For India, which imports more than 80% of the crude it consumes daily, the costs are spiking and the cheap Russian barrels are disappearing as Indian refiners steer clear of tankers explicitly sanctioned by the U.S.  “We believe energy trade shouldn’t be hindered by any politics,” Russia’s Sorokin told the audience at the India Energy Week conference on Tuesday. “Our relationship with India is based on economic pragmatism,” Sorokin said, as carried by Reuters. It is too early to assess the impact of the U.S. sanctions on the Russia-India oil trade, the Russian official added. “More time is needed to assess these things, but we believe that constructive relationships will continue to be successful,” Sorokin was quoted as saying. For now, India has received clarification from the U.S. that the Russian oil tankers sanctioned last month are allowed to discharge their crude at Indian ports until February 27. While the U.S. clarification could be a relief for India for this month, it is not certain how trade will proceed going forward. Indian refiners are already scrambling for supply for arrival after February.  India will continue to buy Russian oil if it is sold below the $60 per barrel price cap and delivered on non-sanctioned tankers and without any involvement of sanctioned companies or individuals, Indian officials have said.