United States President Donald Trump said on Monday that he will either reach a “great and meaningful” deal with Iran, or there will be no agreement. “I laugh at all of the Dumocrats, RINOS, and Fools who know nothing about the potential deal I am making with Iran, things that haven’t even been negotiated yet … The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal. It will be the exact opposite of the JCPOA disaster negotiated by the failed Obama Administration, which was a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran. No, I don’t do deals like that,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. The US president criticized Republican Senators Thom Tillis and Bill Cassidy, as well as Republican Representative Thomas Massie, claiming that they “do nothing but create division and loss,” after they have been critical of him over his policies.
Iran and US play down hopes for imminent breakthrough in war
At present the talks are not on the nuclear issue, which will be negotiated over a 60-day period if the framework accord is agreed, Baghaei said.
Trump has said his key aim in the war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon with its highly enriched uranium. Tehran has consistently denied it has any plans to do so. A day earlier, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would “remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed”. Trump raised expectations of an imminent deal on Saturday when he said Washington and Tehran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum of understanding on a peace agreement that would reopen the strait. Baghaei said the potential accord contained no specific details on management of the strait, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied gas flows.
Iran will not charge tolls for ships to pass through the strait, Baghaei said. However, he added there would be a cost for services that will be offered, such as navigation and steps to protect the environment, under a protocol to be agreed with Oman,
which shares the opposite shore of the waterway. The two sides remain at odds on several difficult issues, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s war in Lebanon with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia and Tehran’s demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks. Iranian sources disclosed that in future stages, “feasible formulas” could be found to resolve the dispute over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, including diluting the material under the supervision of the U.N. nuclear watchdog. A tenuous ceasefire has held since early April. The president hit back at critics of his handling of the negotiations and his willingness to compromise with Iran. “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one … So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about,” Trump posted on Sunday.
NN: More Iranian negotiation tricks.
Trump: US won’t rush Iran deal, talks constructive
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that negotiations with Iran are moving forward in an “orderly and constructive manner,” while stressing that Washington will not rush into an agreement. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had instructed US representatives involved in the negotiations to take their time and “not to rush” because “time is on our side,” adding that both parties must avoid mistakes and ensure any deal is properly finalized. Trump also said the US blockade will “remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified and signed.” He contrasted the current negotiations with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under former President Barack Obama, arguing the ongoing talks are designed to prevent Iran from developing or obtaining a nuclear weapon. “Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb,” he stressed.
Trump: It’s 50/50 between Iran deal or bombing
United States President Donald Trump said on Saturday that it is a “solid 50/50” between the option of reaching a “good” deal with Iran or the option to “blow them to kingdom come.” “I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good,” Trump told Axios in an interview, adding that “some people would much rather have a deal and others would rather resume the war.” The US president is set to meet with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and his informal advisor and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, later today to discuss Iran’s latest proposal, signaling that he will make a decision on whether he will resume the war with Iran by Sunday.
US said to be readying for new Iran strikes
United States military and intelligence officials prepared contingency measures for potential strikes on Iran while indirect negotiations between the two countries continued, CBS News reported, citing sources with direct knowledge of the planning.Personnel lists were updated and troop rotations adjusted at bases across the Middle East in anticipation of possible escalation. Meanwhile, some US service members canceled their Memorial Day weekend plans. The news follows a report that the two sides were not making much progress on reaching a deal.
Wood Mackenzie Warns Oil Could Hit $200
Wood Mackenzie highlighted in a new report from the company, “a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses the single greatest threat to global energy markets in decades”. Oil prices could reach $200 per barrel in a worst case scenario as more than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and condensate supply remains curtailed, the statement noted, highlighting that Wood Mackenzie’s report projected three “distinct scenarios – quick peace, summer settlement, and extended disruption”. A summer settlement scenario assumes the ceasefire holds but negotiations extend into late summer, with the Strait remaining largely closed until September, the statement noted. “Oil and LNG supply shortages persist through Q3 2026, driving a shallow global recession in H2 2026,” Wood Mackenzie said. “Global GDP growth falls below two percent in 2026, resulting in modest yet permanent economic scarring compared to the pre-war baseline,” it added. The statement warned that, “under the most severe scenario [extended disruption] the Strait remains largely closed through the end of 2026, with recurring tensions triggering periods of renewed conflict and sustained supply disruption”. In the statement, Wood Mackenzie said its analysis indicates that Brent crude prices could approach $200 per barrel by end-2026, despite global oil demand falling by six million barrels per day year on year in the second half of the year, and that diesel and jet fuel prices could rise towards $300 per barrel in major refining centers by the end of the year. “More than 11 million barrels per day of crude and condensate production remains shut in and global oil inventories continue to decline,” Wood Mackenzie projected in the statement under this scenario. Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie, highlighted in the statement that the Strait of Hormuz “is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets” and warned that “a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis”. “The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth,” he added. “The consequences of an extended disruption would extend well beyond energy markets. It would test the resilience of global trade, industrial supply chains and economic growth simultaneously, reinforcing the urgency of achieving a resolution,” he concluded. Wood Mackenzie went on to warn in its statement that a prolonged conflict could accelerate structural changes across global energy markets. “Even after the Strait reopens, intermittent disruption could continue and reinforce the geopolitical risk attached to both oil and LNG trade flows, creating a more volatile pricing environment and increasing pressure on import-dependent economies to strengthen energy security,” it said.
Zaye Capital Markets In a market analysis Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said crude “is being pulled between two major forces – geopolitical risk and demand uncertainty”. “Prices came under pressure when markets priced lower immediate escalation risk in the Middle East, but the rebound shows traders are not ready to remove the supply-risk premium while the Strait of Hormuz remains central to global energy flows,” he added. Aslam noted in the analysis that U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments are directly influencing the oil ecosystem and said yesterday’s economic data “added another layer to oil sentiment”. “U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 7.86 million barrels, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped by 9.9 million barrels, and total crude inventories fell by around 17.8 million barrels to 819.2 million barrels, the lowest level in 11 months,” he highlighted. “Refinery utilization stood near 91.6 percent, while crude exports reached around 5.6 million barrels per day, showing physical demand remains active,” he added. “At Zaye Capital Markets, we believe analysts should watch PMI new orders, jobless claims, refinery runs, OPEC supply signals, IEA demand revisions, crude exports, inventory draws and Strait of Hormuz headlines, because oil’s next move depends on whether markets fear tighter supply, weaker demand or renewed inflation more,” Aslam went on to state.
Rubio: Iran progress shouldn’t be exaggerated
United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked on Friday that there has been “slight” progress in his country’s negotiations with Iran, but stressed that he does not want to “exaggerate” it. Speaking to the press ahead of the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) foreign ministers in Helsingborg, Rubio noted that the talks will need to address the issue of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles. He also urged the international community not to accept Iran’s decision to charge fees for the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, Rubio reiterated that US President Donald Trump is “disappointed” in some of the NATO allies for not stepping up and joining the US and Israel’s campaign against Iran.
NN: This is going nowhere fast!
US raises pressure on Cuba with indictment of former leader as island’s president condemns charges
MIAMI (AP) — Federal prosecutors on Wednesday announced criminal charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro in the 1996 downing of civilian planes flown by Miami-based exiles as the Trump administration escalated pressure on the island’s socialist government. The indictment accuses Castro of ordering the shootdown of two small planes operated by the exile group Brothers to the Rescue. Castro, who turns 95 next month, was Cuba’s defense minister at the time. The charges, which were secretly filed by a grand jury in April, included murder and destruction of an airplane. Five Cuban military pilots were also charged. “For nearly 30 years, the families of four murdered Americans have waited for justice,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in Miami at a ceremony coinciding with Cuban independence day to honor those killed. “They were unarmed civilians and were flying humanitarian missions for the rescue and protection of people fleeing oppression across the Florida straits.” Asked to what lengths American authorities would go to bring Castro to face charges in the U.S., Blanche said: “There was a warrant issued for his arrest. So we expect that he will show up here, by his own will or by another way.” Asked what will happen next for Cuba, President Donald Trump said, “We’re going to see.” He added that the U.S. is ready to provide humanitarian assistance to a “failing nation.” The charges pose a real threat, observers said, following the capture by U.S. forces in January of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to face drug charges in New York. “He’s going to have to keep his head pretty low from now on,” said Peter Kornbluh, a specialist on the U.S.-Cuba relationship at the National Security Archive at George Washington University Trump has been threatening military action in Cuba ever since U.S. forces captured Maduro, the Cuban government’s longtime patron. After ousting the Venezuelan leader, the White House ordered a blockade that choked off fuel shipments to Cuba, leading to severe blackouts, food shortages and an economic collapse across the island. Since Maduro’s capture, Trump has ratcheted up talk of regime change in Cuba after pledging earlier this year to conduct a “friendly takeover” of the country if its leadership did not open its economy to American investment and kick out U.S. adversaries While Raul formally retired in 2021 as head of the Cuban Communist Party, he is widely believed to wield power behind the scenes, underscored by the prominence of his grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, who previously met secretly with Rubio. In 1995, planes flown by members of Brothers to the Rescue buzzed over Havana dropping leaflets urging Cubans to rise up against the Castro government. After Cuban protests, the Federal Aviation Administration also opened an investigation and met with the group’s leaders to urge them to ground the flights, according to declassified government records obtained by the National Security Archive. But those calls went unheeded and on Feb. 24, 1996, missiles fired by Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets downed two unarmed civilian Cessna planes a short distance north of Havana just beyond Cuba’s airspace. All four men aboard were killed. A third plane, carrying the group’s leader, narrowly escaped. Guy Lewis, who was a federal prosecutor in Miami in the 1990s, first uncovered evidence linking senior Cuban military officials to cocaine trafficking by Colombia’s Medellin cartel. Following the shootdown, the investigation expanded, and prosecutors pursued charges against Raúl Castro for leading a vast racketeering conspiracy by Cuba’s armed forces. In the end, only the head of the Cuban air force and two of the MiG pilots involved in the downing of the planes were indicted but have never been apprehended.
A fourth individual was convicted of leading a Miami-based spy ring called Operation Scorpion that collected intelligence about the flights. He was later swapped for a U.S. intelligence asset imprisoned in Cuba as part of President Barack Obama’s outreach to Cuba.
The shootdown led the U.S. to harden its position against Cuba, even though the Cold War had ended and the Castros’ support for revolution across Latin America was a fading memory. But Castro himself was spared as the Clinton administration raised concerns about such a high-profile indictment.
NN: Pictured below is one of the Skymaster P338 I suppled to the Brothers to the Rescue. After several meetings the Skymaster a unarmed spotter plane used in Viet Nam was selected. The mission was to save life by spotting people in the Florida straights trying to make it to America and freedom. People set out in anything that could float like 55 gallon drums lashed together to make crude rafts, The spotter planes would find them and direct private rescue boats to rescue them.
StanChart Says Record SPR Withdrawals Are Tightening U.S. Oil Buffers
- The IEA and its 32 member countries launched a record 400-million-barrel emergency oil release after Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade.
- The U.S. is contributing 172 million barrels, and SPR inventories are now falling at a record pace.
- Standard Chartered warns the rapid SPR drawdowns and other emergency measures are only temporary fixes, with physical oil market tightness likely to return once reserve releases end.
Back in March, the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) unanimously pledged a record-breaking release of 400 million barrels of crude oil from their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) shortly after Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggered oil price spikes, more than double the 182.7 million barrels released during the 2022 response to the Ukraine war. As usual, the United States shouldered the lion’s share of the release, committing to 172 million barrels. For the first batch, the Department of Energy (DOE) awarded contracts to eight companies for the sale of 45.2 million barrels from sites in Texas and Louisiana on March 20. And now commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that the pace of withdrawals from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has accelerated sharply, with the latest data revealing the largest weekly decline on record.
According to StanChart, U.S. SPR inventories fell by 9.9 million barrels (mb) in the week ended 15 May, following a decline of 8.6 mb the previous week, taking total SPR volumes down to 374 mb and quickly approaching operational stress limits. The physical infrastructure of the SPR limits withdrawal capacity to a maximum rate of 4.4 mb/d, while the operational minimum is a statutory limit of 150 mb.
The analysts note that the current programme is being executed much more rapidly and alongside a larger global emergency response. However, StanChart says that many of the numerous mechanisms implemented to reduce the near-term supply/demand imbalance are only temporarily viable, implying that near-term dampening of physical oil prices is only temporary with a resumption of the imbalance likely to pull financial contracts higher. Previously, StanChart predicted that the recent dramatic collapse in physical crude oil premiums may be short-lived, with prompt physical barrels likely to regain large premiums. Indeed, StanChart has reported that w/w price escalations in Dated Brent (the primary physical benchmark for crude oil in the North Sea) outpaced the front-month Brent futures contract this week, rising by $9.52/bbl (9.12%) to a weekly settlement high. According to the analysts, physical oil cargo premiums have collapsed–with some grades dropping 90%–due to a combination of intentional buyer restraint, increased reliance on inventory, and increased supplies from non-disrupted regions.As the conflict escalated and Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, oil buyers scrambled to secure immediate, non-Middle Eastern “prompt barrels”, driving up the spot price premiums for available cargoes.
North Sea Forties crude spiked to nearly $150 a barrel by mid-April, exceeding the 2008 peak.
Many commodity experts predicted that oil futures would eventually trade up to the physical; however, we have lately been seeing just the opposite, with the physical trading down to the futures. Whereas physical prices still indicate market tightness, they have recently returned to a more normal range. The sharp fall in the price of physical oil can be chalked up to buyers remaining hopeful the Iran conflict would be resolved rapidly, at least in terms of the Strait of Hormuz blockades, and were dissuaded from purchasing cargoes at extremely elevated prices. High volatility and regular price swings in excess of $10/bbl in a day (front-month Brent traded in a $35/bbl intraday range on 9 March ) have increased the risk of a VaR shock i.e., an acute increase in Value at Risk. Deferring purchases in the near term has also allowed buyers to benefit from strategic reserve and inventory drawdowns, reduced refinery run rates (and adjustments to maintenance schedules), and alternative supply sources, which have cushioned oil price spikes. StanChart says physical prices are likely to rise again once purchases can no longer be deferred, refinery runs pick up, and strategic reserve releases are complete, unless a deal to end the conflict can be agreed.
This will likely eventually pull futures prices up towards elevated physical benchmarks.
Oil up 3% as Khamenei orders uranium to stay in Iran
Crude oil prices rebounded from yesterday’s losses on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumping by more than 3% as hopes for the United States and Iran reaching a peace deal started to fade, following the latest reports claiming that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a directive ordering Iran’s uranium to stay in the country. The Iranian leader’s order contradicted Israeli officials, who claimed that Iran’s highly enriched uranium inventories will be transferred out of Iran in order to reach any peace deal, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly restoring its military capacity at a faster pace than expected, stoking fears of the military conflict restarting in the Middle East. WTI for deliveries in July surged by 3.01% to go for $101.22 per barrel at 6:53 am ET. Meanwhile, Brent for the same month’s settlements climbed by 2.42% and went for $107.69 per barrel at 6:53 am ET.