Author: BlackMask Financial

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Oil tumbles 6% as US-Iran peace deal hopes grow

The prices of oil tumbled on Wednesday, deepening even more after midday as reports surfaced that Pakistan may announce a final US-Iran draft agreement within hours.

Investors reacted to the news by moving out of bonds and into equities, sending Treasury yields sharply lower and US stocks surging 520 points higher as the prospect of war faded.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for July’s settlements dropped by 5.34% at 12:20 pm ET to sell for $98.81 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for the same month’s deliveries plunged by 6.18% to go for $105.17 per barrel.

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Final Iran draft deal may be announced soon

Pakistan is expected to announce the final draft of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran soon, Saudi Arabia’s state news agency Al-Hadath reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed sources. According to the report, intensive work is underway to finalize the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, may travel to Tehran tomorrow to announce that the two parties have agreed on a final draft of the deal, the outlet said. In the event that he does not travel to Iran, the final draft agreement could be announced within a few hours, the sources noted.The outlet added that the next round of talks between the US and Iran is expected to take place after the Hajj season, probably in early June.

NN: Here we go again. Another round of endless negotiations. But keep your eye on the money ball. No oil is moving out of the straights. 
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EIA: US crude oil inventories down by 7.9M barrels

 

 

 

 

 

Summary  of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending May 15, 2026

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 445.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrelper day during the week ending May 15, 2026, which was 80 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.6% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, increased by 116 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.8 million barrels per day, 1.5% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 547 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 173 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels from last week and are 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending component inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels from last week and are 51% above the five-year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels per day, up by 3.1% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, up by 0.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 1.4% from the same period last year.

NN: The numbers speak for themselves. Inventories are crashing.
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Trump Says Holding Off on New Iran Strikes After Gulf Appeal

President Donald Trump said he called off a strike on Iran planned for Tuesday after an appeal by the leaders of Persian Gulf allies, who called for more time to pursue a diplomatic resolution. “I put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while, because we’ve had very big discussions with Iran, and we’ll see what they amount to,” Trump said at a White House event on Monday evening, hours after his announcement in a social media post. “I was asked by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and some others if we could put it off for two or three days, a short period of time, because they think that they are getting very close to making a deal,” Trump added. “If we can do that, where there’s no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran, I think, and if they’re satisfied, we will be probably satisfied also.” The president has repeatedly threatened renewed military action against Iran without following through. There was no immediate confirmation from Tehran of renewed talks. Trump said the US was prepared to attack if an acceptable deal wasn’t reached but didn’t set a deadline. His comments were the latest indication of the bind he’s in with the war, where Tehran has taken a hard line in the absence of credible threats of renewed attacks by the US. Yet escalation would bring further increases in oil prices, something the White House has so far been unwilling to risk. Oil and stocks whipsawed as traders parsed mixed signals about prospects for an accord to end the war and revive energy flows through the key Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% while the S&P 500 nearly wiped out its losses in a choppy session after Trump’s remarks. With crucial oil exports from the Persian Gulf all but cut off amid the war, Trump has been pushing Iran to make a deal or face a resumption of strikes.

NN:  What the hell is going on? Trump TACO’ed again.  Iran is pushing things to far. Talk about playing a losing hand.
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US said to view Iran’s new proposal as ‘insufficient’

The United States has received Iran’s latest proposal for a deal to resolve the conflict, but the White House sees the new offer as “insufficient” for a peace agreement, Axios reported on Monday, citing a senior US official. According to the report, US President Donald Trump is considering resuming the military operation in Iran because Tehran rejected many of his demands, including the one about making meaningful commitments related to the Iranian nuclear program. The official cited in the report also claimed that the US may continue the negotiations with Iran “through bombs” if Tehran does not change its stance. The US president is reportedly set to hold a meeting with his top national security team in the Situation Room tomorrow to discuss military options, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to hold a security meeting later today. The two leaders also discussed the war in Iran in a call yesterday.

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Pakistan sends “new” Iranian peace proposal to US

  • Pakistan shares Iranian proposal with US
  • Pakistani source says: “We don’t have much time”
  • Iranian source says focus is on ending war and Hormuz
  • Source says Iran wants US to reconsider stance on assets
Iran sent a new peace proposal to the United States with terms that appeared similar ‌to offers Washington has previously rejected, although a senior Iranian official said on Monday that the U.S. had softened positions on some issues. A Pakistani source confirmed that Islamabad, which has conveyed messages between the sides in the war in the Middle East since hosting the only round of peace talks last month, had shared ​the latest proposal with Washington. But the source suggested progress had been difficult. The sides “keep changing their goalposts,” the Pakistani source ​said, adding: “We don’t have much time.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed that Tehran’s views had been “conveyed to the ⁠American side through Pakistan” but gave no details. Washington did not immediately comment. The Iranian proposal, as described by the senior Iranian source, appeared ​similar in many respects to Iran’s previous offer, which U.S. President Donald Trump rejected last week as “garbage”. It would focus first on securing an end ​to the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz – a major oil supply route that Iran has effectively blockaded – and lifting maritime sanctions. More contentious issues around Iran’s nuclear programme and uranium enrichment would be deferred to later rounds of talks, the source said. However, in an apparent softening of Washington’s stance, the senior Iranian ​source said the United States had agreed to release a quarter of Iran’s frozen funds – totaling tens of billions of dollars – held in ​foreign banks. Iran wants all the assets released. The Iranian source also said Washington had showed more flexibility in allowing Iran to continue some peaceful nuclear activity ‌under supervision ⁠of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran’s Tasnim news agency separately quoted an unidentified source as saying the U.S. had accepted waiving oil sanctions on Iran while negotiations were under way. Iranian officials did not immediately comment on Tasnim’s report..Trump said in ⁠a post on Truth Social at the weekend that “the Clock is Ticking” for Iran, adding that “they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for resuming military.
NN: Iran has been negotiating for 40 years…. Time to call their bluff
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Trump set to hold security meeting on Iran military options

United States President Donald Trump is planning to hold a Situation Room meeting with security officials on Tuesday to discuss potential new military options against Iran, Axios reported on Sunday, citing American officials. Furthermore, Trump spoke to the outlet over the phone, stressing that Iran will “get hit much harder” unless it comes up with a better offer for Washington. “We want to make a deal. They are not where we want them to be. They will have to get there or they will be hit badly, and they don’t want that,” he stated. Earlier in the day, the US president told Iran to “better get moving fast,” threatening that there “won’t be anything left of them” if Tehran fails to agree a deal with Washington.

NN: The coming elections are weighing on Trumps every decision.

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WHO declares health emergency over Ebola outbreak

The World Health Organization (WHO) determined that the latest outbreak of a rare species of the Ebola virus affecting the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). WHO stated that the outbreak does not satisfy the criteria required to be considered a pandemic. According to the organization, eight cases of the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus were confirmed in a laboratory, with 246 suspected cases and 80 fatalities occurring in the remote Ituri Province of eastern DR Congo. Two laboratory-confirmed cases were reported in Uganda, and an additional one in DR Congo’s capital, Kinshasa. “There are significant uncertainties to the true number of infected persons and geographic spread associated with this event at the present time,” WHO cautioned. The organization issued a set of measures for national governments to prevent the further spread of the disease.

NN: This is NOT NOT NOT the next pandemic. This is just another run of Ebola from the ever loving shit hole in Africa.  Don’t fall for the hype!

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Cuban Oil Crises

Ever since US Special Forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3 and launched an attack on Iran, Washington has been warning that Cuba will be next. Under a US-imposed economic blockade, the island has received almost no fuel in 2026. On May 13, Cuba’s energy minister said the country has completely run out of the diesel and fuel oil it needs to keep its power plants running. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have repeatedly said the increasing economic pressure is designed to force regime change on the communist-run island. If it doesn’t, they’ve signaled they may resort to brute force. While Trump says Cuba will be falling “pretty soon,” the island’s leaders remain defiant. “Faced with the worst possible scenario, Cuba is accompanied by one certainty: any external aggression will be met with unbreakable resistance,” Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel wrote on X in March. Signs of hardship are everywhere in Cuba. The fuel crunch is exacerbating problems with an already decrepit grid. Cuba’s roughly 10 million residents have suffered through repeated nationwide blackouts. Gasoline is being rationed, tourist resorts are being shuttered, and the government has told airlines they won’t be able to refuel. Social media reports have showed sporadic protests breaking out in and around the capital of Havana. In March, protesters in the city of Morón threw rocks and set fire to the local communist party office. China, Brazil, Mexico and others are providing — or have pledged to provide — food and humanitarian aid. But without major fuel shipments, it’s unclear how long Cuba’s government can remain afloat. Successive US administrations have tried to topple the 67-year-old communist regime in Havana — or force it to change. But perhaps no president has turned the screws quite like Trump. Driven in part by Rubio — born in Florida to Cuban parents — the administration has ratcheted up sanctions and pressured Cuba’s neighbors such as Guatemala, Honduras and Jamaica to scale back reliance on Cuban medical missions, another source of income for Havana. Under pressure from Washington, Ecuador and Costa Rica have cut diplomatic ties with Cuba.  Cuban Americans are a powerful voting bloc in South Florida, and that community has long advocated for the downfall of the regime. If Rubio were the one to pull it off, it would help make him a Republican front-runner in future elections. And in Washington, Cuba is seen as a platform for China, Russia, Iran, and other US foes on Florida’s doorstep. Some US leaders see regime change as a way to blunt this influence After months of rumors and leaks from the US, the Cuban government admitted on March 13 that negotiations are taking place. US officials have been engaging with several officials, including Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro — the 94-year-old former Cuban president and brother of Fidel Castro. Rodríguez Castro is thought to have close ties with GAESA, the sprawling business conglomerate run by Cuba’s military. On May 14, US Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe visited the island for high-level talks after people familiar with the matter said the US is growing frustrated over a lack of progress.

NN: The only thing bad about this is its affecting the supply of Cuban cigars. One of  only two things worth having from Cuba
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JP Morgan Warns Oil Could Average $151 in Q4

J.P. Morgan In a report sent this week by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy, J.P. Morgan warned that Brent could average as much as $151 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year if the Strait of Hormuz reopens on September 1. This figure was the highest in a table of J.P. Morgan Brent price forecasts under alternative Strait of Hormuz reopening timelines, which predicted quarterly and annual Brent prices for 2026 and 2027 in scenarios where Hormuz opens up in mid-May, June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. Under a mid-May reopening scenario, Brent would average $101 per barrel in the second quarter, $96 per barrel in the third quarter, $89 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $91 per barrel overall in 2026, according to the table. In a June 1 reopening scenario, which J.P. Morgan highlighted is its base view, Brent would average $103 per barrel in the second quarter, $104 per barrel in the third quarter, $98 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $96 per barrel overall in 2026, the table showed. A July 1 reopening scenario would see Brent average $104 per barrel in the second quarter, $116 per barrel in the third quarter, $117 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $104 per barrel overall in 2026, the table projected. In an August 1 reopening scenario, J.P. Morgan projected that the Brent price would come in at $104 per barrel in the second quarter, $123 per barrel in the third quarter, $134 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $110 per barrel overall in 2026. Under a September 1 reopening scenario, J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging $104 per barrel in the second quarter, $127 per barrel in the third quarter, $151 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $115 per barrel overall in 2026, the table revealed. Looking at 2027, the table predicted that, under a mid-May reopening scenario, Brent would average $80 per barrel in the first quarter, $75 per barrel in the second quarter, $67 per barrel in the third quarter, $63 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $71 per barrel overall next year. In a June 1 reopening scenario, Brent would average $85 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $79 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $75 per barrel overall in 2027, the table revealed. A July 1 reopening scenario would see Brent come in at $105 per barrel in the first quarter, $98 per barrel in the second quarter, $87 per barrel in the third quarter, $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $93 per barrel overall in 2027, the table highlighted. In an August 1 reopening scenario, J.P. Morgan projected that the Brent price would come in at $125 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, $119 per barrel in the second quarter, $107 per barrel in the third quarter, $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $113 per barrel overall in 2027. Under a September 1 reopening scenario, J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging $147 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, $140 per barrel in the second quarter, $125 per barrel in the third quarter, $116 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $132 per barrel overall in 2027, the table revealed. “Even if the Strait reopens in June, the seasonal lift in summer demand, combined with the exceptionally large commercial stock draws seen in March and April, and likely again in May, should push OECD inventories toward operational stress levels by August,” J.P. Morgan analysts, including Kaneva, warned in the report. “This is what keeps crude prices elevated in the low $100s through most of the year, rather than allowing a sharp retracement once Hormuz reopens,” they added.

NN: Oil at $150 a Barrell will make you or break you