Author: BlackMask Financial

BEIRUT (AP) — A United States envoy said an agreement to end the Israel-Hezbollah war is “within our grasp” after talks in Lebanon on Tuesday. However, there was no such optimism in the Gaza Strip, where the looting of nearly 100 aid trucks by armed men worsened an already severe food crisis. Amos Hochstein, the Biden administration’s pointman on Israel and Lebanon, arrived as Hezbollah’s allies in the Lebanese government said the militant group had responded positively to the proposal, which would entail both its fighters and Israeli ground forces withdrawing from a U.N. buffer zone in southern Lebanon. The buffer zone would be policed by thousands of additional U.N. peacekeepers and Lebanese troops. Israel has called for a stronger enforcement mechanism, potentially including the ability to conduct military operations against any Hezbollah threats, something Lebanon is likely to oppose. An Israeli airstrike on Tuesday hit a Lebanese army base in the southern town of Sarafand, killing three soldiers, the army said – the second deadly strike on Lebanese soldiers in as many days. The Israeli military did not immediately comment. At least 41 soldiers have been killed by Israeli bombardment the past month, according to the Lebanese army. Hochstein said he held “very constructive talks” with Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah who is mediating on the group’s behalf. “Specifically today, we have continued to significantly narrow the gaps,” the envoy told reporters after the two-hour meeting. “It’s ultimately the decisions of the parties to reach a conclusion to this conflict. … It is now within our grasp.” Berri said the “situation is good in principle,” although some technical details remain unresolved. The Lebanese side was waiting to hear the results of Hochstein’s talks with Israeli officials, he told the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel the day after the Hamas attack in what it said was solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas, a fellow Iran-backed militant group. Israel launched retaliatory airstrikes, and all-out war erupted in September.

Israeli bombardment has killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon and wounded almost 15,000, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. It also displaced nearly 1.2 million, or a quarter of Lebanon’s population. On the Israeli side, 87 soldiers and 50 civilians have been killed by rockets, drones and missiles, and tens of thousands of Israelis have been evacuated from homes near the border. NN: A deal will be done….

Iran has agreed to stop producing uranium enriched close to the level required for nuclear weapons, a sign the Islamic Republic may be ready to resolve a standoff with the West over its atomic activities. Monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday that Iran has begun implementing measures “aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile,” according to a 12-page report seen by Bloomberg News. The Islamic Republic’s engineers have already taken the first steps necessary to cap output, the IAEA wrote. Iran’s commitment followed discussions between IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian this month in Tehran. While the IAEA still needs to finalize investigations into past Iranian activities, a cap on Iran’s stockpile “would be important” to start rebuilding trust, Grossi wrote in the report. Iran began enriching uranium at up to 60 percent levels in 2021. That material could quickly be upgraded to the 90 percent level typically used in nuclear weapons, prompting concern across Europe and the U.S.  The IAEA’s safeguards report is the last before US President-Elect Donald Trump takes office in January, and speculation has been rife about how his administration will address relations with Iran. During his first term that ended in 2021, Trump withdrew the US from an international agreement that capped Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, imposing a policy on the Islamic Republic dubbed “maximum pressure.”

“It is an early olive branch but also a signal that Iran is willing to negotiate over its nuclear program,” said Vali Nasr, a former senior advisor to the US State Department and professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “It is directed at the U.S., since change in Washington will decide the next chapter in Iran’s relations with the West.” 

Under President Joe Biden, Iran has become increasingly embroiled in conflict with US ally Israel. The two countries have twice exchanged direct fire this year, including last month, while Tehran-backed militant groups have been battling Israel in both Lebanon and Gaza.  IAEA monitors said Iran has held back from feeding uranium into new lines of advanced centrifuges at its Fordow enrichment facility, built into the side of a mountain, which Israel has threatened to attack. Speaking after meeting Grossi last week, Pezeshkian said Iran wants to resolve “ambiguities and alleged doubts about our country’s peaceful nuclear activities,” according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.

Iran still has enough fuel on hand to produce a handful of warheads, the IAEA said, giving it room to maneuver should its leadership make a political decision to move forward with nuclear armament.

Inspectors have lost “continuity of knowledge” over key parts of the country’s nuclear work, which would need to be restored as part of a broader deal to control and oversee activities, they said.  The IAEA’s 35-member board of governors is scheduled to convene in the Austrian capital of Vienna on Wednesday to discuss Iran’s nuclear work. NN: This genie will be tough to put back in the bottle. I say bomb the shit out of their nuclear sights

• Kremlin may be open to freeze current front line, Reuters says
• Zelenskiy earlier said his country won’t concede on territory

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov ensured on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to restart negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict with international leaders, including United States President-elect Donald Trump. “The president has indeed repeatedly – or rather, constantly – stated that he is ready for contacts and negotiations,” Peskov said at a press briefing. However, he stressed that a ‘freeze’ of the conflict along the existing frontlines is not an option for Moscow, adding that Russia is committed to achieving its “special military operation” goals. Furthermore, the spokesperson reiterated that the outgoing US President Joe Biden’s administration is determined to fuel the conflict in Ukraine, stressing that it is doing everything to continue the war.

Russia said it was ready to talk with US President-elect Donald Trump about a potential cease-fire with Ukraine, stoking speculation about how the conflict will eventually end even as it has intensified on all fronts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Tuesday his country wouldn’t make concessions on sovereignty or territory. Zelenskiy’s own formula for peace is based on obtaining a clear path to North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership and security guarantees for protection until it joins.

Trump has vowed to end the war quickly, without saying how. His return to the White House also raises the prospect of a sharp cut in US aid to Ukraine, he could also threaten to bolster support to Kyiv to try to pressure Russia into a deal. There are conversations happening in both Kyiv and Moscow to prepare for the shift coming in Washington. Russia has intensified its bombing of Ukraine in recent days. The US embassy in Kyiv closed Wednesday due to what it said was “specific information of a potential significant air attack on November 20.” Russia on Sunday launched one of its largest missile and drone strikes since the start of the war, hitting energy infrastructure and other targets across Ukraine. Putin still insists on Ukraine abandoning its ambitions to join NATO and a ban on the alliance’s troops being stationed on Ukrainian soil, but he’s ready to discuss security guarantees for the neighboring state, according to the Reuters report. Outgoing US President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles inside Russia could complicate and delay any settlement, Reuters cited two of the people as saying. On Tuesday, Putin signed a decree lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, just days after Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to carry out strikes deep inside Russia with US-supplied long-range missiles. Moscow on Tuesday said Ukraine used US-made ATACMS to strike Russian territory for the first time.

nn audio file:

this is called posturing

Ukraine has used US-supplied ATACMS ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, RBC-Ukraine reported on Tuesday. The successful attack, as reported by RBS-Ukraine, comes after the Kremlin issued a warning against Ukraine and its allies not to use the system, which the Kremlin regards as a major threat. In that context, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved updates to the country’s nuclear doctrine, expanding the authorization of the use of nuclear weapons to include aggression by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state. According to sources, today’s attack “was inflicted on an object in the Bryansk region.” The target is located about 130 km from the Ukrainian border.

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS /əˈtækəmz/) is a supersonic tactical ballistic missile designed over 40 years ago and manufactured by the US defense company Lockheed Martin. It uses solid propellant and is 13 feet (4.0 m) long and 24 inches (610 mm) in diameter, and the longest-range variants can fly up to 190 miles (300 km). The missiles can be fired from the tracked M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the wheeled M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). An ATACMS launch container (pod) has one rocket.  It has a small payload of  M74 bomblets (M39) or 214 kg (472 lb) WAU-23/B unitary warhead (M48, M57) NN: This will not start a nuclear war.  What they forget to tell you is the fact this weapon system has been in the war for over a year. With a restriction it could not be aimed at targets INSIDE RUSSIA . Now they can hit targets in Russia up to 200 miles. Hardly a game changer.

Crude oil prices added over $2 per barrel on Monday on the news about a production halt at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field due to an onshore power outage but earlier today the momentum began to slow down with traders refocusing on fundamentals. Despite that dip, the market will be carefully watching developments between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude was trading at $73.36 a barrel at the time of writing, with West Texas Intermediate at $69.20, both up from opening but modestly.“But investors stayed wary, assessing the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war after the weekend’s escalation,” he added.

Toshitaka Tazawa of Fujitomi Securities analyst  told Reuters.   “Some position adjustments kicked in after Monday’s rally,”

Johan Sverdrup is the biggest producing oil field in Western Europe. It began producing in 2019 and its peak output is seen either this year or next. The peak production level is seen at 755,000 barrels daily, which is significantly higher than initial peak output expectations of 660,000 bpd. The peak output was hit for the first time this September when Johan Sverdrup produced 756,000 bpd. The field’s output alone accounts for a third of Norway’s total oil production.

Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA    said it is rare for spot prices to be up almost 3% at the same time that the curve is under pressure and threatening to switch to contango,”  “However, it is more likely to happen when speculators scramble to spread out of their position ahead of expiration, selling at the front of the curve and buying further out.”

Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.  was quoted:   Speculation that an emboldened Ukraine may put Russian energy assets at risk and increase the likelihood of direct involvement from the US and North Korea is reducing the urgency to sell as well, said  NB: This is a over reaction to Ukraine’s use of what is in essence a field short range missile system that at best makes a small boom with a 200 mile range.

Oil prices got a geopolitical boost at the start of the week that seems to have remained for the time being. The boost came from the Biden administration’s decision to allow the Ukrainian army to target Russian territory with long-range missiles. The decision was a stark departure from the administration’s previous stance. Russia called the decision reckless and warned it would constitute a direct confrontation with NATO. NN: See yesterdays pod cast Titled: Biden Bombing Trump Peace Plan….. Point in fact we regard yesterdays rally as a  selling opportunity,,,,, And sell we did.

Crude oil futures increased by over 1.7% on Monday as supply disruptions and geopolitical conflicts exerted upward pressure on oil markets. The uptick comes in the wake of Russia’s latest “massive combined attack” targeting all regions in Ukraine during the weekend, marking its biggest air strike in nearly three months. Further, The New York Times reported yesterday that United States President Joe Biden greenlighted Ukraine’s use of Washington-provided long-range missiles to carry out strikes inside Russian territory, further pressuring the commodity’s prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for December’s settlements rose by 1.78% at 9:18 am ET to sell for $68.20 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for January’s deliveries increased by 1.83% to go for $72.25 per barrel.

nn see blackmask pod  cast:

biden is shooting down trump’s peace efforts

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Monday commented on previous reports on United States President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory and claimed that the outgoing US administration wants to escalate the conflict between Moscow and Kiev.

“If such a decision has indeed been formulated and communicated to the Kiev regime, then, of course, this would be a qualitatively new round of tension and a qualitatively new situation regarding the United States’ involvement in this conflict,” Peskov said at a press briefing.

Furthermore, the spokesperson stressed that if Western missiles are launched deep into Russia, this will mean that Western countries that provided those weapons, and not the Ukrainian military, are targeting Russian territory, which would have serious consequences.

Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, has been nominated to lead the Department of Energy in the Trump administration.

Wright is a vocal critic of the energy transition as envisaged by most Western governments to date, instead calling for energy realism and prioritizing the supply security and affordability of energy rather than its emission footprint.

“Three decades from now the vast majority of energy will come from hydrocarbons,” Wright told Bloomberg two years ago in an interview, also warning that subsidizing wind and solar would not only not help reduce emissions but would end up increasing electricity prices and rendering the grid more vulnerable. Indeed, this is already happening in Europe, with the Czech government recently announcing a retroactive cut in solar subsidies because it can no longer afford to support the industry. Solar developers threatened to sue the government, saying that without subsidies there would be bankruptcies. Czech electricity consumers pay some of the most expensive electricity on the continent, along with Germans and Britons—both champions of the transition. President-elect Donald Trump said that Wright “will be a key leader, driving innovation, cutting red tape, and ushering in a new ‘Golden Age of American Prosperity and Global Peace,’” as quoted by the Financial Times. Wright will also be appointed to a new federal entity dubbed a Council of National Energy, whose task would be to do a complete makeover of U.S. energy policies across government agencies, the FT reported. “This Council will oversee the path to U.S. ENERGY DOMINANCE by cutting red tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sectors of the Economy, and by focusing on INNOVATION over long-standing, but totally unnecessary, regulation,” Trump said. NN: Drill baby drill here we come