Author: BlackMask Financial

Oil prices jumped on robust US economic data and worsening supply disruptions in Libya.Brent rose 1.6% to settle just below $80 a barrel after losing more than 3% over the previous two sessions. West Texas Intermediate ended the session near $76 a barrel, close to its 200-day moving average, which has recently acted as a ceiling. The US economy grew at a slightly stronger pace in the second quarter, lifting equities. Prices surged further as Libya suspended oil exports from five eastern ports while the country’s output dipped further amid an escalating stalemate over who controls the central bank. Oil output has more than halved this week to less than 450,000 barrels a day since the disruption began.

“A continued outage from Libya will all but erase the expected fourth-quarter stock build and generate a draw, which will put stocks at perilously low levels,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc.

Another driver for the rally in oil prices is the continued risk that Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah or Iran will escalate, said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. Over the weekend, 100 Israeli warplanes swooped over southern Lebanon, taking out thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers in what was called a preemptive strike. Although tensions deescalated on Monday, the risk of a region-wide war is still present. Global benchmark Brent is still on track for a small decline this month, even after repeated drops in US stockpiles that are tightening global supplies. Worries about growth in China are also persistent as it is likely to miss its GDP growth target this year, according to a Bloomberg survey, undermining demand in Asia’s biggest economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have cut their 2025 oil price forecasts in recent days, with both expecting a surplus next year as China’s recovery loses steam.

Still, crude is modestly higher for the year as expectations of lower interest rates in the US and OPEC+ supply discipline counter lackluster Chinese demand. The possibility of the cartel boosting output from October is hanging over the market, however. Traders are split on whether the planned increases will go ahead, according to a Bloomberg survey.

“The flagging economic data out of China remains a headwind, and if the Middle East situation can resolve or signal that it will resolve, I expect prices to resume their downward trajectory,” said John Kilduff, co-founder of Again Capital LLC.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Thursday accused Iran of smuggling weapons into the West Bank via Jordan in order to establish “an eastern terror front against Israel.” In a post on X, Katz said that Iran is trying to “turn the Israel-Jordan border from a peaceful one into a volatile front.” He further noted that weapons from Jordan are being transferred to Palestinian refugee camps in the West Bank “where an Iranian-Hamas terror infrastructure is being established,” adding that the Palestinian Authority is unable to cope with “this threat.” Katz pointed out that Israel has to “act decisively” in order to “prevent an influx of advanced Iranian weapons” into the West Bank and urged Western countries to help Jordan to defend its borders.

VIENNA (AP) — Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels in defiance of international demands, a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said Thursday. The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, seen by The Associated Press, said that as of Aug. 17, Iran has 164.7 kilograms (363.1 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 %. That’s an increase of 22.6 kilograms (49.8 pounds) since the IAEA’s last report in May.

Uranium enriched up to 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. By IAEA’s definition, around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%.

The IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi, has previously warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. He has acknowledged the U.N. agency cannot guarantee that none of Iran’s centrifuges may have been peeled away for clandestine enrichment. Thursday’s report is the latest low in spiraling relations between Tehran and the IAEA. It follows a June 6 resolutionby the 35-member IAEA Board of Governors that censured Iran for failing to cooperate fully with the Vienna-based agency. Iran’s mission at the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request from the AP for comment. There were also no immediate comments from Tehran on the IAEA report. Iran’s 2015 landmark nuclear deal with world powers had put limits on its nuclear program — which the West fears could be used for making nuclear weapons and Tehran insists is only for peaceful purposes — while lifting punitive economic sanctions imposed on Iran.But the deal collapsed after the Trump administration in 2018 pulled the United States out of the agreement, leading Iran to abandon all limits the deal had put on its program, and enrich uranium to up to 60% purity. Meanwhile, surveillance cameras installed by the IAEA have also been disrupted and Iran has barred some of the Vienna-based agency’s most experienced inspectors. Iranian officials also have increasingly threatened that they could pursue atomic weapons. The IAEA report further says that Tehran has also not reconsidered its September decision to ban the agency’s inspectors from monitoring its nuclear program and that IAEA surveillance cameras remain disrupted. The IAEA said it had requested in an Aug. 8 letter that Iran provide access to a centrifuge manufacturing site in the city of Isfahan, to enable the agency to service its cameras, but received no reply. Additionally, the report says Iran has still not provided answers to the nuclear watchdog’s years-long investigation about the origin and current location of man-made uranium particles found at two locations that Tehran has failed to declare as potential nuclear sites, known as Varamin and Turquzabad.

The IAEA report comes just days after Iran’s supreme leader opened the door to renewed negotiations with the United States over his country’s rapidly advancing nuclear program, declaring there was “no harm” in engaging with the “enemy.”

Continue reading “IAEA says Iran enriched uranium stockpile ‘near weapons-grade levels’”

Aug. 29 (UPI) — Ukraine said Thursday that it had used domestically manufactured drones to expand strikes against strategic Russian oil facilities overnight and target field artillery infrastructure just across the border inside Russia. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that following an attack on an oil depot in Rostov province Wednesday morning, Ukrainian forces had hit an oil storage facility in the Kirov region, northeast of Moscow and more than 900 miles inside Russia and an artillery ammunition dump in the Rossosh district of Voronezh region, about 35 miles from the border with Ukraine. Confirming the attacks in a social media post, the General Staff said the strike on the Atlas oil depot in Rostov caused explosions and set storage tanks ablaze, but the full extent of the damage inflicted there and in Kirov and Voronezh was “currently being clarified.” It said the missions were carried out by special operations forces and the Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry, in cooperation with other branches of the military. Both the Rostov plant in Molodezhnyi, just east of occupied Luhansk province, which belongs to Russia’s Federal Agency for State Reserves, and the Kirov facility were targeted for their roles in keeping Russia’s armed forces supplied. Russian media reported fresh, powerful explosions at the Rostov plant late Wednesday where firefighters were still fighting fires from the earlier attack. Kirov. Gov. Alexander Sokolov confirmed a blaze near the Zenit oil products depot in Kotelnich that he said was started when three of five drones targeting the facility fell nearby after being downed by Russian air defenses. The Kyiv Independent reported a source as saying the Zenit oil depot was a “facility of the enemy military-industrial complex and provides fuel to the Russian occupation forces.” The General Staff pledged more attacks as part of continuing measures to “undermine the military and economic potential of the Russian occupiers and stop Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine.” Ukraine has mounted at least 64 drone strikes against Russian refineries, storage and other oil infrastructure either in Russia or Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, the BBC’s Russian service reported Wednesday.

The prices of oil futures extended their gains on Thursday following a report that Iraq suspended the spot cargo of a million barrels in August to lower the volume of its exports. Earlier, the Houthi movement targeted the Greek tanker Sounion in the Red Sea and Lybia temporarily halted its production and exports due to the ongoing political conflict. West Texas Intermediate for October’s settlements jumped by 3.07% at 10:16 am ET to sell for $76.77 per barrel. Simultaneously, Brent for the same month’s deliveries soared by 2.61% to go for $80.65 per barrel.

Tulkarem, West Bank (AP) — The Israeli military said it killed five more militants, including a local commander, early Thursday in the West Bank as it pressed ahead with what appeared to be the deadliest military operation in the occupied territory since the start of the war in Gaza. Israel says the simultaneous raids across the northern West Bank — which have killed a total of 16 people, nearly all militants, since late Tuesday — are aimed at preventing attacks. The Palestinians see them as a widening of the Israel-Hamas war aimed at perpetuating Israel’s decades-long military rule over the territory. The Islamic Jihad militant group confirmed that Mohammed Jaber, known as Abu Shujaa, was killed during a raid in the city of Tulkarem. He became a hero for many Palestinians earlier in the year when he was reported killed in an Israeli operation, only to make a surprise appearance at the funeral of other militants, where he was hoisted onto the shoulders of a cheering crowd. The military said he was killed early Thursday along with four other militants in a shootout with Israeli forces after the five had hidden inside a mosque. It said Abu Shujaa was linked to numerous attacks on Israelis, including a deadly shooting in June, and was planning more. Israel launched a large-scale operation in the West Bank overnight into Wednesday. Hamas said 10 of its fighters were killed in different locations, and the Palestinian Health Ministry reported an 11th death, without saying whether he was a fighter or a civilian. The overall toll of 16 killed in less than two days would make it the deadliest Israeli operation in the West Bank since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack out of Gaza ignited the war there. The raids have focused on refugee camps that date back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation, in which around 700,000 Palestinians fled or were driven out of what is now Israel. Many of the camps are militant strongholds.

Hamas repeated its calls for Palestinians in the West Bank to rise up, calling the raids part of a larger plan to expand the war in Gaza. The militant group has called on security forces loyal to the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which cooperate with Israel, to “join the sacred battle of our people.” Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has also condemned the Israeli raids, but his forces were not expected to get involved. NN This is adding more fuel to the fire. 

Ukraine’s permanent mission to the international organizations in Vienna said in a letter sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published on Thursday that the threat Russia could attack the former country’s nuclear facilities remains. “The Russian Federation continues to deliberately target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, intending to disrupt the operation of the country’s nuclear power plants, which provide most of Ukraine’s electricity,” the mission’s letter read. It added that on August 26, Russia attacked its energy infrastructure, which resulted in several nuclear power plants or their parts being disconnected from the grid. Ukraine urged the agency to forward the notice to the IAEA’s members and help de-escalate the situation.

  Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 23, 2024

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 23, 2024, which was 175 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 92 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 6.1% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 867 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 220 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels from last week and are 12% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, down
by 2.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 1.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 3.6% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 2.6% compared with the same
four-week period last year