United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed on Thursday that the country’s Treasury Department is “launching operation ‘Economic Fury'” against Iran. This will “maximize economic pressure across the entirety of the government,” Hegseth detailed at a press conference, telling Iran to “choose wisely.” He repeated that the US army stands ready to continue fighting if Tehran chooses “poorly.” According to the Treasury, the operation will target “regime elites like the Shamkhani family that attempt to profit at the expense of the Iranian people.”On blocking Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, Hegseth underlined that the blockade will be maintained “for as long as necessary.”
US shuts down Iran’s maritime trade despite optimism for more talks
DUBAI/WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) – The United States said on Wednesday its military had completely halted trade going in and out of Iran by sea, while President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week, sending oil prices down for a second day. Trump said negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials could resume in Pakistan in the next two days and Vice President JD Vance, who led weekend talks that ended without a breakthrough, said he felt positive about where things stood. “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” Trump told ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl, adding he did not think it would be necessary to extend a two-week ceasefire that ends on April 21. “It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild,” Trump said, according to a post by Karl on X. “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.” Officials from Pakistan, Iran and the Gulf also said negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week, although one senior Iranian source said no date had been set.
Despite the optimistic note, more vessels were being turned back under the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, including a U.S.-sanctioned and Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry that was making its way back to the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after exiting the Persian Gulf.
Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. Central Command, said American forces had completely halted economic trade going in and out of Iran by sea, which he said fuels 90% of Iran’s economy. “In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea,” Cooper said in a post on X. Earlier the U.S. military said it had intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the start of the blockade on Monday, according to the Wall Street Journal. “You are not going to solve that problem overnight,” he said. The signs of diplomatic engagement to end the conflict that began on February 28 helped calm oil markets, pressing benchmark prices below $100 for a second day on Wednesday. Asian stocks rose while the safe-haven dollar stabilised after falling for a seventh straight session overnight. However, the market stands to lose access to further supply as the U.S. does not plan to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, according to two U.S. officials, and quietly let a similar waiver on Russian oil run out on the weekend. The war has prompted Iran to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global waterway for crude and gas transport, and cut shipments from the Gulf to global buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe, leaving importers scrambling to secure alternate supplies.
NN: Has anyone noticed? The oil market is undersupplied by at least 7 million barrels per day. And oil real oil for real delivery is $160 a barrel. So i will wait for the paper barrels to come back to realty.
Paper Oil Blinks While Physical Supply Tightens
Extreme volatility in crude futures prices has eased in recent days, although the market reacted with an 8% jump early Monday to the news of failed U.S.-Iran talks and the beginning of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders continue to react to any signal of how the worst-ever disruption energy market would unfold, but with uncertainty still very high, oil market participants bet on and try to predict movements. The worst of the volatility may have passed, as investors and speculators appear to have exhausted their capacity to respond to the constantly shifting narratives of the Trump Administration, analysts say. It appears that the oil market is gradually becoming used to the price swings in either direction that follow each post of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran, the state of negotiations, or the navigability status of the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil chokepoint which handled about 20% of daily global oil and gas flows before the war. Moreover, the U.S. blockade raises the value of keeping the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen out of the war, Meyersson said. “Both the US and Iranian sides have once again signalled the extent of their respective entrenched positions,” Meyersson noted. “As such, given the time constraints and likely ongoing military preparations on both sides, absent a diplomatic breakthrough, the road to continued warfare remains open.” Oil futures traders are betting on how they believe the conflict would unfold, hoping for the best but wary of the worst. Still, they are a bit better prepared to handle all the conflicting signals they are being given by the hour.
Not prepared are the physical crude markets, where prices have soared to near all-time highs or record-highs, including compared to the 2008 price rally just before the financial crisis.
The sharp decline in crude futures last week was likely primarily driven by an overcrowded long position, rather than any meaningful easing in underlying fundamentals, which continue to point to a tightening physical market, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday. Crude futures were trading slightly lower than $100 per barrel as of Tuesday morning. But the price of physical crude for immediate delivery has soared amid the supply constraints and is about $40 per barrel more expensive than the futures. Brent futures may have sunk below $100 per barrel, but constraints are intensifying amid the supply shock, with the physical price of a key North Sea blend, Forties, surging last week to a record high of as much as $147 per barrel. The surge in physical crude prices reflects the massive supply shock, with about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and unable to go to refiners.
NN: The huge $50 a barrel premium of the physical crude over the futures prices signals that the real oil supply shock is enormous, even if the sentiment on the futures market is tentatively hopeful that there is still a way to resolve the Middle East crisis soon.
IRGC vows to attack any ship that approaches Hormuz
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned on Sunday that it would attack any military vessel that attempts to approach the Hormuz Strait. The guard denied “false” statements that the waterway is open for shipping. The guard said such moves would constitute a violation of the ceasefire agreement and provoke a strong reaction from Iranian armed forces. Earlier on Sunday, United States President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the strait, also promising to clear it of naval mines, after an apparent failure of talks in Pakistan. Vessels of nations that paid tolls to Iran to ensure passage would be subject to interdiction. Last week, Washington and Tehran reached a fragile two-week truce to pave the way for diplomatic contacts. On the other hand, the negotiations in Islamabad have not resulted in a compromise.
NN: Does not look to me any oil will flow out of the gulf
Trump orders blockade of Hormuz Strait
United States President Donald Trump ordered on Sunday a blockade of the Hormuz Strait and to “interdict” every vessel in international waters that “has paid a toll to Iran.” The US leader declared that the talks with Iran went well, but said Tehran was unwilling to unblock the strait and give up its nuclear program. “We will also begin destroying the mines [that] the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he wrote on Truth Social. Furthermore, he added the blockade would “begin shortly,” and other nations would participate, without revealing which. “They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!” he threatened after an apparent failure of the talks in Pakistan
Trump: Iran doing ‘very poor job’ on oil transit
United States President Donald Trump criticized Iran’s handling of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, saying the country is failing to honor its commitments. Trump claimed that Iran is “doing a very poor job” of allowing oil to pass through the waterway. “That is not the agreement we have,” he claimed. The two sides recently entered a two‑week ceasefire that required Iran to guarantee safe passage for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. However, disputes over Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire have complicated the deal’s implementation.
NN: Hello wake up call. Iran has still not opened up the straights. Its their last barging chip.
European, African crude oil prices hit records on supply disruptions despite ceasefire
European and African crude oil prices climbed to fresh records on Wednesday, defying a sharp selloff in oil futures after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire was reached on Tuesday, as traders priced in a prolonged disruption to physical oil supplies.
The ceasefire announcement sent major benchmark Brent and WTI contracts tumbling 13% and 16% respectively on Wednesday to below $100 a barrel, as investors bet on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a reduced geopolitical risk premium. . However, prices in the physical market have yet to decline and some have even risen. The outright price of a barrel of North Sea Forties crude reached an all-time high of $146.43 a barrel on Thursday, according to LSEG data.
The divergence highlights strong from Asian and European refiners for non-Middle East barrels, driving up prices for prompt replacement crudes, such as those in Europe and Africa. It also shows that disruption is expected to persist.
“We are talking months before a return to the full supply chain, so certainly there will continue to be this big divergence between the physical and paper markets,” said Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby.
Iran’s continuing near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional states’ energy infrastructure have also pushed the premiums at which crude oil cargoes trade to all-time highs. Forties trades at a premium or discount to dated Brent a physical benchmark for prompt cargoes. Dated Brent is trading almost $27 above June Brent futures, according to LSEG data, and Forties hit a record premium of $20.25 to dated Brent on Wednesday. “The reaction [on futures prices] is expected, but we do not expect it will quickly translate into a material change in physical flows or production,” consultancy Energy Aspects said, It added that a temporary two-week ceasefire meant operators will not restart refineries and fields due to the risk of renewed shutdowns.
In the North Sea, other major grades Brent, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll were also bid to fresh record premiums on Wednesday. U.S. WTI Midland crude delivered to Europe traded at a $20.70 premium to dated Brent on Wednesday, also the highest ever.
The value of dated Brent is derived from the prices of the five North Sea crudes and WTI Midland. The rise in these premiums has wider significance for the oil market because dated Brent is used to price over 60% of globally traded crude. In West Africa, Angolan Cabinda crude was trading at around dated Brent plus $10 per barrel or even firmer on Wednesday, a trader said, a record high for that grade.
Oil jumps 5% on ceasefire uncertainties
Crude oil prices increased on Thursday, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising by more than 5%. Market participants are also evaluating the geopolitical factors related to the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The move comes after some relief in the commodity market following the announcement of a new ceasefire deal. Prices fell below $100 per barrel yesterday. However, over the last few hours, investors have shown less optimism following comments from Iranian officials about a possible fallout.
By 12:22 pm, WTI for May 2026 was up 5.45% at $99.16 a barrel, while Brent for June 2026 had gained 3.87% to $98.18.
ADNOC: Open the Strait unconditionally…..
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) CEO Sultan Al-Jaber called on Thursday for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen “fully, unconditionally and without restriction,” adding that “energy security and economic stability depend on it.”
“The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” he stated on LinkedIn, saying that “conditional passage is not passage.” He stressed the strategic waterway is governed by international law and “no country has a legitimate right to determine who may pass.”
Al-Jaber warned markets are at a “critical crossroads,” with “an estimated 230 vessels” loaded with oil awaiting transit, while “more than 20% of globally traded energy” remains affected. “Every day the Strait remains restricted, the consequences compound,” he said, urging action to “restore real flows” and ease pressure on prices and global supply.” “This is particularly urgent for Asia, where 80% of these cargoes are bound and half the world’s population lives,” Al-Jaber said.
NN: Its time to NUKE them back to the stone age! They desperately want nukes we should. give them a dozen or so.
Iran’s nuclear chief: Enrichment won’t stop….. It will have to be stopped!
Iran’s atomic energy chief, Mohammad Eslami, stated on Thursday that the “enemy” won’t succeed in limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment program and that “no law or person can stop us,” Iran’s ISNA news agency reported. Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, has repeatedly defended the nation’s right to pursue uranium enrichment as a sovereign technological capability and has previously stressed that Iran’s nuclear industry is still in operation despite international pressure and sanctions. In a previous statement, the White House reiterated that the US still opposes any uranium enrichment within Iran, while adding that US President Donald Trump did not agree to Tehran’s “wish list,” but it was a mere “workable basis on which to negotiate.”
NN: So what has changed, Straights still closed and for “PEACEFULL” purposes Iran wants to maintain its RIGHTS to enrich weapons grade uranium… There is no use to negotiate with these savages