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Israel Bracing for Unprecedented Direct Iran Attack in Days

  • Missile barrage from Iranian soil to Israel would be a first
  • Iran has vowed revenge for Syrian embassy assault last week

Israel is bracing for a direct and unprecedented attack by Iran on government targets as soon as Saturday, according to people familiar with western intelligence assessments, a move that has the potential to trigger an all-out regional war. An assault from Iranian soil has emerged as one of the main scenarios expected by the Jewish state and its allies, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly. A bombardment with drones and precision missiles could come within the next 48 hours, they said. “I don’t want to get into secure information but my expectation is sooner rather than later,” President Joe Biden said Friday in response to a question about whether an Iranian strike was imminent. Asked what message he’d give to Iran, Biden responded, “Don’t.” “We are devoted to the defense of Israel,” Biden said. “We will support Israel, we will defend, help defend, Israel and Iran will not succeed.”

Oil jumped to the highest level since October on the news, rallying as much as 2.6% to top $92 a barrel before  falling off on the close .Futures have surged 19% this year with the war adding risk premium to the market.

The US is preparing defenses and moved additional military assets to the region, while intensifying diplomatic efforts to rein in hostilities, the people said. Among the US forces in the Middle East are two Navy destroyers that moved to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea last week, according to a Navy official who asked not to be identified discussing military movements. One is the USS Carney, which was recently in the Red Sea performing air defense against Houthi drones and anti-ship missiles.

US officials including Jake Sullivan and Brett McGurk have been working to send messages to Iran, including through an established Swiss channel, one of the people said, while talking to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other governments. The intelligence assessment is that the attack still hasn’t been approved by Tehran’s highest-ranking officials, according to the people. An Iranian missile and drone barrage would represent a retaliation for a deadly strike on its diplomatic compound in Syria last week, which the Islamic Republic blames on Israel.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said Israel will be “punished” for the assault, though stopped short of saying what form such a counter move would take.

Late Friday, Israel reported 40 rocket launches from Lebanese territory and said some were intercepted. Israeli forces also intercepted two of Hezbollah’s explosive drones earlier in the day, the Israel Defense Forces said in a post on X. One of the people said it’s possible that the increasingly inflammatory rhetoric between Israel, Iran, and the US could be grandstanding, but said the working assumption for Israel and allies is that an attack is imminent. Diplomatic back-channels are in overdrive, the people said. Any Iranian attack on Israel would likely be a combination of missiles and drones, based on current capabilities outlined in a new Defense Intelligence Agency Worldwide Threat assessment released late Thursday. The regime “has a substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of striking targets as far as 2,000 kilometers from its borders,” the agency said. Western officials said intelligence showed Iran is preparing an attack on Israel any day after Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim holiday celebrated on April 10, adding the next 48 hours were critical to see if the message to diffuse tensions had successfully reached Tehran.

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‘Ready for any scenario’: IDF chief assesses preparedness for Iran attack

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi wrapped up a “comprehensive” assessment of the military’s “readiness for all scenarios” a short while ago, before meeting CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the army says.

The assessment and following meeting come amid heightened alert in Israel for a potential Iranian attack on the country, with Iran threatening to respond to the assassination of two generals among several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers in Syria’s Damascus last week.

“The IDF is well prepared in attack and defense against any threat. We are at war and have been on high alert for about six months. The IDF continues to closely monitor what is happening in Iran and in the various arenas, while constantly preparing to deal with existing and potential threats in coordination with the United States armed forces,” Halevi says following the assessment, in remarks published by the IDF.

“Our forces are prepared and ready at any time and against any scenario,” he adds.

The assessment was attended by Deputy Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Amir Baram, the head of the Operations Directorate, Maj. Gen Oded Basiuk, the head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, the commander of the Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, the commander of the Home Front Command, Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo, and other officers, the IDF says.

The IDF says the top commanders presented their preparations “for attack and defense, while referring to possible scenarios and adjusting the operational response.”

Halevi is now meeting Kurilla, the IDF adds.

The post ‘Ready for any scenario’: IDF chief assesses preparedness for Iran attack, meets CENTCOM chief appeared first on The Times of Israel.

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Oil Prices Surge on Fears of an Imminent Iranian Attack

  • Intelligence reports suggest Iran is planning an attack on Israel within the next 48 hours.
  • This escalation in tensions follows an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consulate in Syria.
  • Oil prices jumped by 2% as markets fear potential disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East.

Oil prices spiked on Friday morning following reports of heightened tensions between Iran and Israel, with the possibility of an Iranian attack on Israeli soil looming within the next 24 to 48 hours. The Wall Street Journal, citing American intelligence reports, revealed this development, sending shockwaves through global oil markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices experienced significant jumps, with WTI rising by $2.02 and Brent climbing by $1.78 per barrel by 9:20 a.m. ET. This sharp increase underscores the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, a region critical to global oil supply. The catalyst behind the surge in tensions is the aftermath of an airstrike on April 1, targeting an Iranian consulate building in Damascus, Syria. The strike, reportedly carried out by Israel, resulted in the deaths of several high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, including two generals. Iran views this attack as a direct provocation and is allegedly considering retaliatory measures against Israeli targets.Israel, already on high alert due to multiple threats and intelligence assessments pointing to an imminent Iranian strike, now finds itself bracing for potential reprisals. The specter of conflict between these two regional adversaries has escalated concerns about stability in the Middle East and its implications for global energy markets. Markets were already jittery this week, awaiting some retaliatory attack by Iran following the previous Israeli strike on Tehran’s embassy in Syria. While Tehran initially showed signs that it was eager to find a way to gracefully back down, fearing what is sure to be severe international blowback, today’s intelligence seems to suggest that Iran is keeping retaliation on the table. Both WTI and Brent benchmarks were trading up roughly 2% on the day, with Brent reaching $91.56 and WTI reaching $87.05—the highest crude price the market has seen in nearly 7 months.

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Major attack 100 drones 12 missiles possible TODAY

A potentially devastating Iranian retaliation that could come within hours, according to alarming warnings from US officials. Two American officials have disclosed to CBS News that Iran is preparing a large-scale attack on Israel, likely involving over 100 drones and dozens of missiles targeting Israeli military sites. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, expressed doubt about Israel’s ability to fully defend against an assault of this magnitude. However, they acknowledged Iran may opt for a smaller strike to avoid further escalation. The anticipated retaliation follows an alleged Israeli airstrike on April 1 that killed seven Iranian commanders in Syria. While vowing revenge, Iran has not publicly revealed specifics about the timing or nature of its response, leaving uncertainties about how far the retaliation will go. A direct attack on Israeli soil raises fears of igniting a broader regional conflict, potentially drawing in Iranian-backed groups like Hamas and escalating beyond Israel’s control. The US State Department has urged Americans in Israel to restrict travel outside major cities protected by Iron Dome defense systems. It warned that US government personnel may face further travel limits as the volatile situation unfolds. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defiantly stated, “Whoever harms us, we will harm them,” asserting Israel’s readiness to counter any aggression “both defensively and offensively.” Anxiety is high on both sides over the risks of miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation in this dangerous crisis. While neither Israel nor Iran wants full-scale war, the challenges of delivering a measured response could have catastrophic regional consequences if mishandled.

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Secret Meeting Between Venezuela and the U.S. as Oil Sanctions Loom

U.S. and Venezuelan government officials met secretly this week ahead of the expiry of oil sanction relief next week. The meeting, in Mexico City, discussed the possibility of reforms in Venezuela, Bloomberg reported citing unnamed sources, with a focus on elections.The United States granted a six-month oil sanction waiver to Caracas last year after the two sides discussed election reforms that would have given Venezuela’s opposition a chance in the upcoming vote in July. However, just months later, the Maduro government effectively banned the opposition’s leader, Maria Corina Machado, from running for office, prompting threats from Washington that the sanctions would snap back. Following the sanction waiver last October, Venezuela had planned to expand its oil production from below 800,000 bpd to over 1 million bpd. The prospects of that happening have dimmed since then as the threat of the return of sanctions hung over PDVSA’s head. Analysts have also forecast a higher risk of domestic fuel shortages if the sanctions snap back on April 18.

The easing of the sanctions helped Venezuela boost its oil export revenues, with expectations for this year at $20 billion, according to Reuters estimates from January, versus a total of $12 billion in oil revenues for last year. If the sanctions are reimposed, however, the outlook will change drastically.

Bloomberg cited one Venezuela-based analyst as estimating the potential losses at $2 billion for this year alone. Another said that the lifting of the sanctions for six months has boosted the country’s oil revenues by an additional $740 million.

The return of sanctions will also affect the U.S. as it would put an end to heavy crude imports from Venezuela. These started flowing to Gulf Coast refineries once again after the sanction suspension entered into effect in October. The suspension expires on April 18.

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China Exports Drop More Than Expected in Setback to Recovery

China’s exports slumped in March, dealing a blow to hopes that booming sales abroad will offset weak demand at home and drive growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Exports shrank 7.5% in dollar terms in March from a year earlier, while imports fell 1.9%, the customs administration said Friday. Both numbers came in well below economist forecasts. The trade surplus for the month was almost $59 billion.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Think…

Early indicators of overseas demand point to some resilience in coming months, which is “a positive for economy but it doesn’t look strong enough to offset weakness in domestic demand.

The surprise decline in imports is also instructive. Policymakers will have to do more heavy lifting to revive demand.”

— Eric Zhu, economist

In manufactured goods including cars and semiconductors — two areas where Western nations are trying to fend off Chinese competition — exports recorded double-digit growth in dollar terms in the first three months of the year. Phone sales declined when measured in dollars, but the actual number of phones shipped overseas rose 6.3% — illustrating how Chinese firms are slashing prices.

Among other products, fertilizer exports led the decline with a 52% plunge in the first quarter from a year ago. That likely reflected Beijing’s effort to secure domestic supplies and stabilize prices. Chinese export prices fell through February, and that deflation means any rise in demand may not translate into higher profits for Chinese firms. Producer prices fell in March for an 18th straight month.

Meanwhile the unexpected drop in imports adds to worries that Chinese consumers, still feeling the impact of an extended real estate slump, have little appetite to spend. Earlier this week, the government reported that consumer prices barely rose in the 12 months through March, highlighting that deflation remains a threat. NN: Well that shoots in the ass any chance of a increase in China oil demand. In fact just the opposite

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IEA trims oil demand forecast on weakness in wealthier countries

LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth on Friday, citing lower than expected consumption in OECD countries and a slump in factory activity. The Paris-based energy watchdog lowered its growth outlook for this year by 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.2 million bpd, adding that the release of pent-up demand by top oil importer China after easing COVID-19 curbs had run its course.“Delivery data for many countries came in on the soft side, as unusually warm late-winter weather curtailed OECD heating fuel use by more than normal,” the IEA said in its monthly oil report.
“Additionally, the protracted factory slump in advanced economies continued to depress demand for industrial fuels.”
Demand growth in 2025 will edge down to 1.1 million bpd, with global GDP growth forecast to remain steady and electric vehicle expansion expected to gather pace, it said.
The IEA noted that China’s contribution to the global increase in oil demand is set to weaken from 79% in 2023 to 45% in 2024 and 27% next year.

The agency’s report came after crude futures soared to five-month highs last week-with Brent crude breaking above $90 a barrel, boosted by fears of supply disruptions due to growing geopolitical hostilities and signs of a tighter market following OPEC+ extension of output cuts. Yet, gains are capped by an unexpected build in U.S. inventories and fading expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June after a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation reading. The international benchmark currently trades around $90 a barrel, while WTI, the U.S. oil gauge, is around $86 a barrel.

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USA Crude Oil Stocks Rise Almost 6MM Barrels WoW

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 5.8 million barrels from the week ending March 29 to the week ending April 5, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly petroleum status report. The country’s crude oil stocks stood at 457.3 million barrels on April 5, 451.4 million barrels on March 29, and 470.5 million barrels on April 7, 2023, the report, which highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding, showed. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 364.2 million barrels on April 5, 363.6 million barrels on March 29, and 369.6 million barrels on April 7, 2023, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks in the U.S. – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.591 billion barrels on April 5, the report highlighted. This figure was up 13.0 million barrels week on week and down 12.5 million barrels year on year, according to the report. “At 457.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about two percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA noted in its report. “Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels from last week and are about three percent below the five year average for this time of year,” it added.“Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about five percent below the five year average for this time of year,” it continued. “Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels from last week and are nine percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it went on to state. In its report, the EIA highlighted that U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending April 5. The organization pointed out that this was 115,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. “Refineries operated at 88.3 percent of their operable capacity last week,” the EIA said in the report. “Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day,” it added. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, the EIA noted in the report, highlighting that this was a reduction of 183,000 barrels per day from the previous week. “Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 4.8 percent more than the same four-week period last year,” the EIA stated in the report. “Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 730,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 163,000 barrels per day,” it added. The EIA revealed in the report that total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.0 million barrels a day. It outlined that this was down by 0.4 percent from the same period last year. “Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, down by 2.7 percent from the same period last year,” the EIA said in the report. “Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 8.9 percent from the same period last year,” it added. “Jet fuel product supplied was up 3.5 percent compared with the same four-week period last year,” it continued.

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Iran’s response to Israel to reportedly be limited

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock that Tehran will be responding to Israel’s strike on its embassy in Damascus in a limited manner, Axios reported on Thursday citing a source. According to the source, the Iranian official told Baerbock that a “legitimate self-defense with the aim of punishing the aggressor is a necessity,” although the country’s actions will be executed in an “appropriate” way that would not lead to an escalation of the conflict in the region. The source, however, cautioned that it is unclear what would be a definition of a limited response for Iran.

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Israel vows proper response if Iran launches direct attack

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant  on Thursday held a phone call with the United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and warned that his country will respond appropriately to a potential direct Iranian attack. “Gallant told Secretary Austin that he is committed to the security of the citizens of Israel, and therefore a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran,” Israeli minister’s office reported. Previously, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated that his country is “on alert” and that a strike from Iran’s territory would mean that Tehran aims to “escalate the situation in the Middle East and to stop hiding behind the proxies.”