Iran was planning to conduct a strike against Israel but postponed such action “at the last minute,” Israeli news website Ynet reported on Thursday. According to the report, Tehran decided to either delay the strike or change the nature of its response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus, likely due to warnings from the administration of United States President Joe Biden. The outlet cited Iranian semi-official news agency Mehr as claiming the attack could happen “maybe tonight,” but soon after deleting the video with the assertion. Iran has warned on multiple occasions that it will “punish” Israel over the Damascus strike in which seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad-Hadi Haji-Rahim, were killed. Israel, on the other hand, stressed it would retaliate against any strike, while Biden insisted Washington will do everything it can to protect Israel’s security. NN: Once Iran the US has Israel’s  back they called off the strike.

President Joe Biden said he delivered a “blunt and straightforward” message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on improving civilian conditions in Gaza. “We’ll see what he does in terms of meeting the commitments he made to me,” Biden said Wednesday during a White House news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Biden also urged the adoption of a proposal that would see a six-week cease-fire in exchange for the return of hostages being held by Hamas, saying the US remained committed to seeing their release. “We’re not going to stop until we do,” he said.The Israel-Hamas war, now in its seventh month, has weighed heavily on Biden’s reelection bid. The president signaled a breaking point last week, telling Netanyahu that US support for his war effort would depend on better protecting civilian lives in Gaza. Biden on Wednesday also called for Israel to open an additional crossing and allow more aid trucks to enter the war-torn region. An Israeli strike that killed seven aid workers delivering food to Palestinians prompted the call between Biden and Netanyahu. The incident caused a global backlash and ramped up pressure on Biden to persuade Israel to allow more aid to flow into the devastated territory. The Israeli military has said the attack inadvertently targeted the aid convoy. Young voters, progressives and people of color — all crucial groups for Democrats — have increasingly voiced opposition to Biden’s handling of the conflict and urged him to place conditions on support for Israel or entirely cut off military assistance. The president can ill-afford defections in his November rematch with Republican Donald Trump. Israeli officials this week said progress had been made in negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza that would see the release of hostages held by Hamas, designated a terrorist group by the US and European Union, and Palestinian prisoners. It’s a shift in tone from the nation’s leaders, who had previously said large gaps remained between the two sides. Netanyahu said Monday that he had a date in mind to invade the city of Rafah — seen as the last bastion of Hamas and its leaders, but also where more than 1 million Palestinians fled during the war. Such a move would further strain US-Israeli relations. The White House has said it couldn’t support a full-scale ground invasion of Rafah, given the likelihood of widespread civilian deaths.Biden urged Netanyahu during their call last week to reach an immediate cease-fire deal to allow for hostages to be freed and more aid to reach Palestinians in Gaza. The White House has praised initial steps to boost the flow of shipments of food and medicine into the territory, but officials have said they want to see those efforts continue for a sustained period to satisfy their concerns. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that the country is greatly intensifying its humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, partly at the urging of the US, bringing the number of trucks entering the strip to 500 a day. Through most of the conflict, the number was about 200.“My recent visit to the United States was essential in determining next steps and reflecting the link between our operational goals and the humanitarian effort,” he told a group of foreign correspondents in his Tel Aviv office. Gallant announced that Israel is opening its port at Ashdod to receive goods to enter Gaza through a new northern entry it was creating. In addition, new aid routes from Jordan have been approved, as well as a deconfliction mechanism to reduce the risk of another mistaken killing as occurred last week with the seven aid workers. Israel is also working to fix bombed-out infrastructure, including installing new water lines he said.

Three sons and three grandchildren of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader and former Palestinian Authority prime minister, were killed in an airstrike, Haniyeh confirmed in an interview with Al Jazeera on Wednesday. According to Haniyeh, the victims were visiting relatives on the occasion of Eid in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza when they were attacked. In addition, he also confirmed the loss of three grandchildren in the same attack. Moreover, the news comes after the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry claimed that 33,500 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war and 76,049 have been wounded.

Hamas can’t  find 40 Israeli hostages needed for cease fire deal

CNN — 

Hamas has indicated it is currently unable to identify and track down 40 Israeli hostages needed for the first phase of a ceasefire deal, according to an Israeli official and a source familiar with the discussions, raising fears that more hostages may be dead than are publicly known. The framework that has been laid out by negotiators says that during a first six-week pause in the fighting, Hamas should release 40 of the remaining hostages, including all the women as well as sick and elderly men. In exchange, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be released from Israeli prisons. Hamas has told international mediators – which include Qatar and Egypt – it does not have 40 living hostages who match those criteria for release, both sources said. CNN’s record of the conditions of the hostages also suggests there are fewer than 40 living hostages who meet the proposed criteria. The inability – or unwillingness – of Hamas to tell Israel which hostages would be released, alive, is a major obstacle, the second source added. With Hamas appearing to be unable to reach 40 in the proposed categories, Israel has pushed for Hamas to fill out the initial release with younger male hostages, including soldiers, the Israeli official said. Throughout the months of negotiations since the last ceasefire Israel has repeatedly asked for a list of the hostages and their conditions. Hamas has argued that it needs a break in the fighting to be able to track and gather down the hostages, the same argument it made in November before a week-long pause that broke down after Hamas failed to deliver more hostages. The majority of the almost 100 hostages who remain alive are believed to be male IDF soldiers or men of military reserve age. Hamas is expected to try to use to them in later phases to try to negotiate more significant concessions, including more high-level prisoners and a permanent end to the war. The more than 250 hostages captured or killed on October 7 are believed to have been spread out among different members and factions of Hamas, as well as other militant groups, gangs and even held by families.

Three sons and three grandchildren of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader and former Palestinian Authority prime minister, were killed in an airstrike, Haniyeh confirmed in an interview with Al Jazeera on Wednesday. According to Haniyeh, the victims were visiting relatives on the occasion of Eid in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza when they were attacked. In addition, he also confirmed the loss of three grandchildren in the same attack. Moreover, the news comes after the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry claimed that 33,500 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war and 76,049 have been wounded.

Crude oil stockpiles in the United States jumped by 5.8 million barrels to stand at 457.3 million barrels in the week ending April 5, the US Energy Information Administration shared in its report on Wednesday. The crude oil refinery inputs in the country averaged 15.8 million barrels per day, decreasing 115,000 barrels per day from the average recorded in the week prior. Refineries operated at 88.3% of their capacity, while gasoline production fell to an average of 9.4 million barrels per day. Imports of crude oil into the US averaged 6.4 million barrels per day, 183,000 barrels per day less in comparison to the previous week. Total commercial petroleum inventories surged by 12.4 million barrels. NN: I do not believe Iran will got to war at this time.

Hamas has dismissed a temporary ceasefire proposal made by the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a senior Israeli official said that Israel is open to the proposal but that “the plan is seen as favoring Hamas.” The proposal envisions a six-week pause during which Hamas would release 40 Israeli hostages, while Israel would liberate 900 Palestinian prisoners. However, according to the report, Hamas disagreed with the temporary nature of the ceasefire, preferring a permanent cessation of hostilities and the complete withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from the Gaza Strip.

Hamas allegedly refusing to free 40 hostages

Hamas is said to be rejecting Israel’s demand to free 40 hostages as part of a potential ceasefire agreement, Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported. According to the report, Hamas is refusing to release any male soldiers and claims it does not have 40 living elderly or female hostages remaining. On the other hand, Israeli officials insist the Palestinian group does have 40 hostages who meet the required criteria. Meanwhile, a report by Haaretz said that some Israeli cabinet ministers would likely oppose any ceasefire deal that does not include the release of all hostages held by Hamas as they believe such an agreement would give a signal to Hamas that Israel is willing to make big concessions in talks.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Wednesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must allow more aid into Gaza to “alleviate” the widescale destruction, mass displacement and the imminent threat of famine resulting from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. “I’ve also said repeatedly the situation in Gaza is increasingly intolerable, you know, the humanitarian suffering that people are experiencing isn’t right and Prime Minister Netanyahu needs to do more to alleviate that,” Sunak added during an interview with LBC radio station.The prime minister has previously pleaded for the cessation of hostilities in Gaza and the establishment of a permanent ceasefire following the deaths of British citizens in an airstrike by the Israeli Defense Forces on the World Central Kitchen.

Fitch Ratings revised China’s outlook to negative from stable, saying the government is likely to pile on debt as it seeks to pull the economy out of a real estate-driven slowdown. Growing uncertainty about the outlook for the world’s second-biggest economy, amid Beijing’s drive to make growth less dependent on housing, “could keep debt on a steady upward trend,” Fitch said on Wednesday. China’s government, which has been talking up the prospect of a turnaround in the economy, rapidly pushed back — saying the rating company failed to reflect the role of fiscal policy in shoring up growth, which helps to stabilize debt burdens. Financial markets were unfazed, with China’s 10-year sovereign bond yield little changed at around 2.29%, and the yuan also steady. Fitch’s action matched a similar one by Moody’s Investors Service in December.

“I don’t think this will have much market impact,” said Michelle Lam, an economist at Societe Generale SA, who said the risk for investors from rising Chinese debt is that it will slow growth, not raise sovereign default risks. “China’s debt problem and property crisis are well known and understood by market participants.” The Fitch announcement comes at a crucial time for China’s economy. In the coming week, the government is due to release some key indicators — including first-quarter growth — while the central bank will decide on a key loan rate. Financial markets are closely watching for clues about whether the economy has put the worst behind it, after some encouraging numbers for manufacturing and exports earlier this year. Those data releases are what markets are focusing on, but the Fitch decision “may still hurt near-term market sentiment on China while the confidence level is already low,” said Xiaojia Zhi, an economist at Credit Agricole. China’s public debt has risen rapidly over the past dozen years or so, as the government pumped funds into the economy in a bid to maintain the world-leading growth rates it posted over previous decades. Amid the property slump that’s now threatening to slow output, the government has outlined some new stimulus measures — like subsidies for households and businesses that want to upgrade appliances or machinery — and signaled that more may follow. Public debt was close to 80% of gross domestic product as of the middle of last year, roughly double the level of the mid-2010s, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That’s well below many advanced economies like Japan and the US, though relatively high for an emerging market. Beijing’s own measure for government debt shows it at 56% of GDP at the end of 2023, up sharply since the pandemic.

NN: AUDIO FILE

CHINA IS THE B IN THE DEMAND SIDE OF OUR BINRY  OIL TRADE

OPEC+ once again extended its oil production cuts this month. The decision was anything but unexpected and, unlike previous production policy announcements, it had the desired effect on prices. However, it could only work for so long. Soon, OPEC will need to make a decision. Last year, oil traders were almost exclusively focused on demand and threats thereof, especially in China.

This year, they are beginning to understand that withholding 2.2 million barrels of oil daily while global demand actually rises will, at some point, start eating into supply.

Oil prices are on the rise. True, some OPEC+ members have been producing more than their assigned quota, and they have been asked to take steps to compensate, which normally means temporary deeper cuts. But it seems that overproduction—and the rising output of quota-exempt Iran, Venezuela, and Libya—has not interfered with the purpose of the cuts. Only they cannot continue forever.

Some analysts have noted in the past few months that OPEC+ will have to start unwinding the cuts at some point, especially if Brent crude tops $100 per barrel. The argument made by these analysts is that at that point, prices will start destroying demand as they usually do.

Yet OPEC+ may decide to stick with the cuts until oil is well above $100, according to the CEO of Dubai-based consultancy Qamar Energy, Robin Mills. In a recent opinion piece for The National, Mills suggested sticking with the cuts is one of the two roads ahead of OPEC, with all foreseeable consequences, such as higher inflation and higher U.S. production.

 The other road Mills describes as OPEC believing its own strong demand forecasts and unwinding the cuts.

This is definitely one way of framing the road ahead. In the same vein, however, one could argue that sticking to the cuts is also a sign of belief in OPEC’s strong demand expectations: if demand is so resilient and prone to expand, it will expand even in a higher-price environment.This is precisely what happened in 2022 when the start of the Russia/Ukraine conflict pushed oil above $100 per barrel and held it there long enough for the annual average to come in at close to $95 per barrel. Demand during that year of high oil prices rose by over 2.5 million barrels daily. And that was before China came roaring back from the pandemic lockdowns, which only ended in late 2022. So, while it would make sense to expect OPEC+ to start thinking about putting an end to its production cuts, it might make more sense to keep them in place—not least because an unwinding of the cuts would have about the same effect on prices as the news that U.S. shale output grew by over 1 million bpd last year.OPEC expects oil demand this year to grow by 2.2 million bpd.   NN: (that demand increase will never happen this year or next) With the cuts in place, this rate of demand growth is certain to push the global market into a deficit. Estimates of the size of this deficit vary, with the IEA seeing a “slight” deficit as a result of the OPEC+ cuts and stronger demand prompted by the Red Sea situation. Qamar Energy’s Mills, however, sees a deficit of as much as 4 million barrels daily developing later in the year. Should this happen, there would be nothing easier for OPEC than announcing an end to the cuts, or at least a tweak, to avoid a price slump. And a deficit environment would be the best time to make these tweaks—with prices high and demand resilient, the effect of such an announcement on prices would be mitigated by the fundamentals. Because the cuts can’t go on forever, not when some OPEC members are already grumbling against the quotas.