Author: BlackMask Financial

OPEC’s crude oil production slumped by 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January as the latest voluntary output cuts kicked in, but not all those who had pledged reductions delivered on their promises.   As OPEC’s crude oil production from all 12 members fell by 350,000 bpd to 26.342 million bpd in January, the country with the biggest contribution to the cuts was Libya, one of the three OPEC members exempted from the cuts alongside Iran and Venezuela, according to the secondary sources in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for February published today. Libya’s oil production fell by 162,000 bpd in January from December, as the African producer was forced to shut down its largest oilfield, Sharara, in the first days of the New Year, temporarily taking some 300,000 bpd off the market. Force majeure on Sharara output was lifted on January 21.  Of the OPEC members who pledged voluntary cuts for the first quarter of 2024, Saudi Arabia stuck to its production goal of pumping around 9 million bpd until the end of March 2024, as part of its unilateral extra cut of 1 million bpd that began in July 2023.   Kuwait and Algeria more or less delivered on their pledges, with Kuwait cutting oil production by 109,000 bpd versus a pledge to reduce output by 135,000 bpd, and Algeria reducing production by 46,000 bpd compared to a 51,000 bpd cut pledged at the end of November. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has promised a cut of 163,000 bpd, but its new quota as of January 2024 is 200,000 bpd higher to 3.219 million bpd. It looks like the UAE is sticking to the cut as its output in January was 2.927 million bpd, only 31,000 bpd higher than in December, when its quota was lower.   The OPEC member that under-delivered most notably was Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the cartel. Iraq cut its oil production by 98,000 bpd to 4.194 million bpd in January, per OPEC’s secondary sources in the report. This compares with a pledged cut of 223,000 bpd. Earlier this week, Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said Iraq is committed to its voluntary cut in the OPEC+ agreement and would produce no more than 4 million bpd of crude.

Palestinian National Authority (PNA) President Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday called on the Hamas movement to expedite the prisoner exchange deal to prevent further displacement of the Palestinian people and additional Israeli forces’ attacks on the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip that could result in the loss of thousands of lives. The president underscored that “a comprehensive war” is being waged against all Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, as well as in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and urged Washington and Arab nations to put in serious efforts to complete the prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas “as quickly as possible” to prevent the reoccurrence of Nakba, referring to the mass displacement of Palestinians during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. The president’s remarks come following the latest meeting with United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during which the secretary expressed Washington’s support for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

US reportedly probes Israeli strike on Gaza refugee camp

The United States State Department is said to have opened an investigation into several Israeli airstrikes that led to the killing of civilians in the Gaza Strip, as well as its potential use of white phosphorus in airstrikes on Lebanon, sources told The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. The sources revealed that the investigation will probe the airstrike carried out on Jabalia refugee camp near Gaza City on October 31, resulting in the deaths of over 125 people. During its operation, Israel claimed to have killed Hamas Jabalia battalion commander Ibrahim Biari. Namely, the United States officials speaking anonymously to the outlet said that Washington seeks to ascertain whether the weapons and missiles it supplied to Israel have been used in attacks that led to civilian casualties .hen to stand down. NN; Israel has got all its going to get.  From here on out Israel starts playing a losing hand. Wisdom is to know when to fold.

Egyptian officials say mediators have made progress in talks aimed at a truce in Gaza. Representatives from the US, Egypt, Israel and Qatar are meeting in Cairo, as international calls grow for Israel to halt plans for an assault on the southern city of Rafah. Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has expressed concern over Israel’s planned offensive in Rafah. At a news conference with the Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad al-Malki, Baerbock said that Israel had a duty to guarantee “safe corridors” for civilians in Rafah. NN: This looks to me like the last hurrah in this latest battle in the ongoing Palestinian Israel conflict before another shaky peace deal

 

Oil supply increases from the Americas will be more than enough to meet demand growth this year, putting downward pressure on oil prices this year in the absence of a major geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol told Bloomberg on Tuesday.     The IEA sees global oil demand growth significantly weakening in 2024 from 2023, Birol said, adding that the agency sees consumption growing by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.3 million bpd this year. The weaker demand growth will be the result of slowing economic growth, including in China, and a rise in electrification of transport, the IEA’s head said. On the supply front, growth from the Americas – driven mostly by the U.S., but also Canada, Brazil, and Guyana – will be “more than enough to meet global oil demand growth and put downward pressure on prices,” Birol told Bloomberg. In the absence of major geopolitical turmoil, or major extreme weather events, the IEA expects a “comfortable oil market and comfortable moderate price evolution,” the agency’s executive director added. In case geopolitical conflicts do not escalate further to threaten oil supply from the Middle East, oil prices would remain at around current levels and not stoke inflation further – which would be good news for the global economy, especially for emerging markets, Birol noted. In its latest available monthly report for January, the IEA raised its 2024 demand growth outlook for a third consecutive month, expecting global oil demand to rise by 1.2 million bpd this year compared to 2023, easing from the 2.3 million bpd annual growth last year. The IEA may have revised up – again – its oil demand growth forecast, but its projections are well below those of OPEC, which expects robust demand growth both this year and next. OPEC’s outlook for this year is demand to grow by 2.2 million bpd—around 1 million bpd more than the IEA expects. NN:  China’s real estate wipe-out is killing oil demand. Which means after the war premium is out of the market oil will be under $70 Brent until oil demand picks up in the third quarter.

Crude oil began trade this week with a loss after Israel said it was done with bombing southern Gaza for the time being, suggesting a decline in supply disruption risk. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate were modestly down after trade opened in Asia, with the decline possibly moderated by news of another Houthi attack on a vessel in the Red Sea

However, a recent statement from the Iranian foreign minister added to the downside potential in oil, after the official said “Developments in Gaza are moving toward a diplomatic solution.”

The statement was made after Hossein Amirabdollahian visited Lebanon for talks with senior Hamas officials. In further bearish news, Plains All American Pipeline said in its 2023 financial report presentation it expected oil production from the Permian to break another record this year, reaching 6.4 million bpd, Bloomberg reported earlier today. The report also noted a new oil demand forecast by Goldman Sachs, which pointed out expectations of further EV expansion in China, undermining oil demand. Also on the bearish side, the Fed signaled once again it had no immediate plans for rate cuts, which is bound to keep oil price range-bound for the time being. On the bullish side, the Houthis have attacked yet another ship in the Red Sea, according to a statement from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations authority. The UKTMO reported earlier today that a ship’s captain had signaled the vessel had been hit by two missiles in the Bab el-Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen. The Yemeni Houthis have kept attacking ships moving through the Red Sea despite retaliatory attacks by the U.S. and the UK against targets on land. Most traffic has been rerouted from the Middle East to Africa, with positive implications for oil demand as the rerouting adds more than a week to the average journey from Asia to Europe. NN: By Ramadan this will be over for now.