The US national security spokesperson has warned Israel against conducting an offensive against Rafah, the last refuge of Palestinians fleeing the Israeli army’s assault on Gaza. John Kirby said the US would not support an attack on the southern town. He added that the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, had expressed his concern to Israeli officials during his recent visit.
Rafah is a ‘pressure cooker of despair’ as Palestinians flee south, says UN agency
The UN humanitarian office on Friday voiced concern about the hostilities in Khan Younis that have forced more people to flee to Rafah in the south of Gaza, describing the border town as a “pressure cooker of despair”, reports Reuters.
“I want to emphasise our deep concern about the escalation of hostilities in Khan Younis, which has resulted in an increase in the number of internally displaced people seeking refuge in Rafah in recent days,” said Jens Laerke, a spokesperson for the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs.
“Thousands of Palestinians have continued to flee to the south, which is already hosting over half the population of about 2.3 million people … Rafah is a pressure cooker of despair, and we fear for what comes next.” Israeli forces will continue their Gaza military campaign to Rafah, the Israeli defence minister, Yoav Gallant has said, despite the huge numbers of Palestinian civilians there. NN: Its over…. Israel’s free ride is over. Defeated by the worlds biggest underground city. Devoted to terrorism.
United States President Joe Biden expressed his view that Israel’s actions in Gaza in response to Hamas’ October 7 attacks have been “over the top.” “The conduct of the response in the Gaza Strip has been over the top…I’m pushing very hard now to deal with this hostage ceasefire because, as you know, I’ve been working tirelessly on this deal to lead to a sustained pause,” Biden pointed out during a press briefing at the White House. In response to inquiries about his age and cognitive capabilities in light of Counsel Robert Hur’s findings that he displayed a weak memory during an interview on the retention of classified information, Biden reassured the press that his memory is “fine.” NN: Its over.. Israel will be forced into a shaky truce. In essence Israel has been forced to surrender. A undefeated Hamas will be back bigger and badder then before Oct 7th.
The European Union member states are said to have agreed on the details of the Aspides operation aimed at ensuring the security of commercial shipping in the Red Sea, German news agency DPA reported on Thursday. The launch of the military operation is expected to be officially confirmed during the bloc’s foreign minister’s meeting in Brussels on February 19. Namely, the mission’s headquarters is expected to be set up in the Greek city of Larissa, the outlet said. Previously, European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell noted that the bloc’s planned maritime mission will be “purely defensive” and protect commercial vessels from the Houthi group’s attacks.
Oil extends gains, rises 2.5%
The prices of oil futures continued to grow on Thursday following reports that the European Union agreed to conduct a military operation in the Red Sea in order to ensure the security of commercial shipping. The news seemingly created worries that the conflict in the Middle East could become even greater, potentially affecting the supply of crude. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March contracts surged 2.56% to $75.78 per barrel at 11:47 am ET. Brent for April deliveries jumped 2.51% to $81.20 per barrel.
The United States Central Command confirmed on Wednesday that its forces carried out a “unilateral strike” in Iraq which killed a Kataib Hezbollah commander as a response to the attack that took the lives of three American service members in Jordan last month. The commander is said to be “responsible for directly planning” and “participating” in attacks on American forces in the region. “The United States will continue to take necessary action to protect our people. We will not hesitate to hold responsible all those who threaten our forces’ safety,” the Central Command said in a statement. The Pentagon previously noted that indications were showing the involvement of the Kataib Hezbollah group in the attack on the US base in Jordan. The militant group later announced an end to all military operations against the US forces to prevent “embarrassment” to the Iraqi government. NN: I guess he is sorry now.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken met on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and again voiced Washington’s support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, according to a statement by State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. During his visit to Israel, Blinken remarked that the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is “the best way to ensure lasting peace and security for Israelis and Palestinians alike and greater integration for the region.” Additionally, Blinken reiterated that Israel has the right to self-defense, but stated that it is urgent to “de-escalate tensions” in the West Bank and to avoid the conflict spreading to other parts of the region. NN: Their will be peace when Hamas is neutralized.
Rumors and speculation appear to be driving oil markets this week, adding to volatility as the world awaits a potential ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Speculation has overshadowed market fundamentals this week, with unsubstantiated reports of an impending ceasefire between Israel and Palestine dragging Brent futures below $80 per barrel again. On the fundamental side, with OPEC+ rolling over its policy and refusing to change its pre-set course, unforeseen refinery outages in the United States might have an even more lasting impact on prices by weakening US demand even further. NN: SEE BlackMask Marker New and Commentary Titled:
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed on Friday that the country’s forces conducted a series of strikes targeting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and “affiliated militia groups.” CENTCOM noted that American forces conducted the strikes with “numerous aircraft,” employing 125 precision munitions, and struck over 85 targets. “The facilities that were struck included command and control operations, centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aired vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against US and Coalition forces,” the US added. The military action comes in response to a recent drone attack that killed three and wounded at least 25 American troops at an outpost in northeastern Jordan. NN: This came a surprise to no one..
A senior Hamas official in Beirut Osama Hamdan told Lebanon’s LBC TV on Friday that the new Gaza deal “must include permanent ceasefire.” Commenting on the proposed agreement on hostage release and a “prolonged pause in fighting,” he said that Hamas is “still studying” it, adding that without a permanent ceasefire, “there is no way that this will be acceptable to the resistance.” “We have tried temporary truces and it turned out that the Israelis don’t respect these truces but always violate them,” Hamdan explained, emphasizing that the military group also demands the release of “Palestinian prisoners being held for acts related to the conflict with Israel, including those serving life sentences.” NN: A temporary piece is in the works.. In the middle east peace deals are made to be broken
Major U.S. Strike in Middle East Could Begin Within Hours
Sky News Arabia is reporting Friday morning that major US strikes against Iran-aligned targets may begin within hours, while NBC is once again reporting that Biden’s counterattack plan in response to the killing of three Americans last weekend is expected to unfold over days and possibly even weeks. The speculation over the scope of the expected attacks has grown with each passing day that there are no strikes. An overnight Israeli attack on parts of Damascus triggered initial speculation it could have been the start of the US operation, but it appeared another Israeli ‘one-off’ hit on Syria. NN: Like i said peace deals are made to be broken.
nergy Intelligence has predicted that global demand in 2024 will clock in at a modest 1.1 mb/d, a growth clip typical of the pre-Covid era.
Energy Intel’s view on OPEC production contradicts StanChart’s, which has predicted an average 2024 call on OPEC crude oil of 29.3 mb/d, 1.4 mb/d higher than 2023 output.
OPEC has predicted that global demand growth will clock in at 2.25 million b/d in 2024 and 1.8 million b/d in 2025 as the Chinese economy grows stronger, well above non-OPEC supply growth at 1.34 million b/d in 2024 and 1.27 million b/d in 2025.
Last year, global oil demand grew at a blistering pace with 2023 consumption exceeding the previous year’s by more than 2 million barrels per day. A number of energy agencies have provided demand growth forecasts for the current year, and the consensus is that global oil demand will see another uptick in 2024. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) typically leans to the bearish side when it comes to oil demand and oil price predictions; however, the agency has raised its 2024 oil demand growth estimate from 850 kb/d in May 2023 to 1.2 mb/d currently. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) tends to be more bullish on these matters. The EIA has trimmed its 2024 demand growth forecast from the 1.7 mb/d it had predicted back in January 2023 to 1.35 mb/d currently while Standard Chartered’s has remained mostly flat at 1.5 mb/d. And, yet another energy watchdog has weighed in: Energy Intelligence has predicted that global demand in 2024 will clock in at a modest 1.1 mb/d, a growth clip typical of the pre-Covid era. According to Energy Intel, non-Opec-plus supply growth of 1.5 million b/d (crude 1 million b/d) will be enough to offset demand growth even if it surprises to the upside in the 1.5 million-2 million b/d range. This, in effect, means that OPEC will have little room to unwind its production cuts if these numbers turn out to be in the ballpark. Further, Energy Intel says limited pent-up demand, a weaker economy, adequate spare production capacity and large Chinese inventories will all serve to keep a cap on prices. Energy Intel’s view on OPEC production contradicts StanChart’s, which has predicted an average 2024 call on OPEC crude oil of 29.3 mb/d, 1.4 mb/d higher than 2023 output, leaving scope for voluntary cuts to be phased out quickly. Call on OPEC is the difference between global oil demand and oil supply by non-OPEC members. If OPEC is unable to meet this call, a deficit ensues while exceeding it leads to oversupplied markets.
OPEC belongs to the bull camp, too. The global oil organization has predicted that global oil demand growth will far outpace non-OPEC supply growth over the next two years. OPEC has predicted that global demand growth will clock in at 2.25 million b/d in 2024 and 1.8 million b/d in 2025 as the Chinese economy grows stronger, well above non-OPEC supply growth at 1.34 million b/d in 2024 and 1.27 million b/d in 2025, on the back of surging production by the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana.
Energy Intel has, however, acknowledged that any major supply disruption or further elevation of Mideast risk could still present upside potential.
It’s a view shared by Standard Chartered which has argued that the markets are heavily discounting ongoing geopolitical risks. The commodity analysts have noted that the markets only issued a muted response to the recent drone attack that killed three and wounded more than 40 U.S. servicemen at a military base in Jordan near the Syrian border. According to StanChart, the markets appear to be betting that the U.S. will only issue a light response to the attack that likely will be limited to Iraq and Syria. But StanChart says there’s a big probability that we will see a significant change in the policy dynamic between the U.S. and Iran, with Iran’s surging oil production likely to be in the crosshairs.
Crude oil prices went lower today after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 1.2 million barrels for the week to January 26 This compared with a substantial draw of 9.2 million barrels for the previous week. A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute estimated another inventory draw, at 2.5 million barrels, for the week to January 26. This significantly exceeded analyst expectations for a much smaller draw, at 867,000 barrels. In fuels, the Energy Information Administration reported mixed inventory changes for the week to January 26. Gasoline stocks, per the EIA, added 1.2 million barrels in the reported week, with production averaging 9.3 million barrels daily. This compared with an inventory build of 4.9 million barrels for the prior week and average daily production of 8.3 million barrels per day. In middle distillates, the EIA estimated an inventory decline of 2.5 million barrels for the week to January 26, with average production standing at 4.4 million barrels per day. This compared with an inventory draw of 1.4 million barrels for the previous week and production averaging 4.5 million barrels per day. Refineries in the United States processed some 14.8 million barrels of crude daily last week, operating at 82.9% of capacity. This compared with 15.3 million bpd for the previous week. Imports averaged 5.6 million barrels daily in the week to January 26, essentially unchanged on the week before that.
Prices, meanwhile, trended higher earlier this week, with Brent closing near $83 per barrel and WTI booking a daily gain of more than $1 per barrel on Thursday. These followed an update from the IMF that saw global economic growth improve this year, suggesting stronger oil demand.
The festering geopolitical risk in the Middle East also helped push oil prices higher over the first two days of the week. Offsetting that were trader concerns about the health of Chinese oil demand amid signs of deepening problems in the country’s real estate sector.