Iran’s foreign minister said on Thursday that NATO’s “provocative activities” are to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, adding that Tehran does not view war as a solution. “NATO’s aggressive measures are at the basis of the Ukraine problem. Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, whose nation has close connections with Russia, remarked on Twitter, “We do not see turning to war as a solution.” “It’s critical to establish a truce and work on a political and democratic solution,” Amir-Abdollahian remarked. In his tweet, he made no mention of Russia. Russian military invaded Ukraine by land, air, and water. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin “has started a war with Ukraine and the whole democratic world.” Putin, Zelenskyy claimed, “wants to destroy our state, all we’ve built.” NN: From a Russian respective this war is about stopping NATO aggression in the former Soviet states. Reality is NATO pledged not to place Nukes, Rockets, SAM batteries near the border of Russia. That agreement was not honored. Russia’s calculation is NATO is a toothless tiger. And he owns there energy supplies therefore he owns them. He is winning the war. Militarily and economically despite CNN US state department spin…
Oil climbs on tight supply, though EU ban on Russian supply still uncertain
Oil prices rose on Thursday, extending a cautious rally this week on signs of tight supply while the European Union (EU) wrangles with Hungary over plans to ban imports from Russia, the world’s second-largest crude exporter, after it invaded Ukraine.
A bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories in the week to May 20, following soaring exports, buoyed the market on Wednesday. Analysts said the inventory draw and the prospect of an EU embargo on Russian oil, in retaliation for what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, were pushing prices higher. “The focus in oil markets is on the EU summit taking place next week, at which another attempt will be made to agree on an EU-wide embargo on Russian oil,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management in a note. European Council President Charles Michel on Wednesday said he is confident that an agreement can be reached before the council’s next meeting on May 30. However, Hungary remains a stumbling block to the unanimous support needed for EU sanctions. Hungary is pressing for about 750 million euros ($800 million) to upgrade its refineries and expand a pipeline from Croatia to enable it to switch away from Russian oil. Even without a formal ban, much less Russian oil is available to the market as buyers and trading houses avoid dealing with crude and fuel suppliers from the country. ANZ analysts pointed to cargoes from Baltic ports taking longer journeys to Asian refineries, while deliveries to the Netherlands and France have all but halted. A forecast increase in oil output to a record high of 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the Permian Basin of the United States is unlikely to plug the 2 million to 3 million bpd gap from lost Russian supply, said Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar. Still, this week’s rise in oil markets has been tempered by strict COVID-19 lockdowns increasing concerns about falling fuel demand in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, and worries about inflation leading to slower global growth. NN: Soon we will get $150 oil. The question is do we get $90 first. In oil we cut a fat hog in the ass. The question is do we get to slaughter the pig again. Who knows… The market giveth and taketh away. (i hate when the taketh away happens). I am looking for a entry point… For more rock and roll funn. This is more fun then Marylou under the boardwalk on the Jersey shore……
Fed sees rising inflation risks, officials favor 50 bp rate hikes
Federal Reserve officials are seeing increasing inflation risks due to coronavirus-related supply issues and higher energy prices, according to the highlights from the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee published on Wednesday.
The implications of the Russian invasion on Ukraine for the United States economy remain uncertain, the report added, arguing COVID-19 lockdowns across China have contributed to issues with global supply chains.
Most officials backed the 50 basis point increases in Fed interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meetings, noting a more “restrictive policy” could become appropriate. Many voting FOMC members saw the Fed as “well-positioned” for a post-tightening later this year. All participants at the Federal Reserve’s May 3-4 policy meeting backed a half-percentage-point rate increase to combat inflation they agreed had become a key threat to the economy’s performance and was at risk of racing higher without central bank action, newly released minutes of the session showed. The 50-basis-point rate increase this month was the first of that size in more than 20 years, and has set the Fed on course for a quick tightening of monetary policy, with “most participants” judging that further half-percentage-point increases would “likely be appropriate” at upcoming Fed sessions in June and July, according to the minutes, which were released on Wednesday.
“All participants concurred that the U.S. economy was very strong, the labor market was extremely tight, and inflation was very high,” the minutes said, with risks of even faster inflation “skewed to the upside” given ongoing global supply problems, the Ukraine war, and continued coronavirus lockdowns in China.
In that context, “participants agreed that the (Federal Open Market) Committee should expeditiously move the stance of monetary policy toward a neutral posture … They also noted that a restrictive stance of policy may well become appropriate.” NN: their is no doubt the FED will have to raise the shit out of rates. Our stock market friends want a rally back more then oxygen… It will fail big time. The only issue is if we can stand the rally back which we will short all the way up. Excuse me miss would you blow on my dice?
Michael Burry Posts Cryptic Tweet Raising Specter of 2008 Crash
A cryptic tweet from “Big Short” investor Michael Burry is adding to the grim mood on a day when markets are sliding and there are signs that the US housing boom is slowing down.
As I said about 2008, it is like watching a plane crash. It hurts, it is not fun, and I’m not smiling.
— Cassandra B.C. (@michaeljburry) May 24, 2022
It’s not clear exactly what Burry , who runs Scion Asset Management, meant. Twitter users urged him to specify what he believed would catalyze another financial collapse on the magnitude of the 2008 crisis. Burry — whose bet against the housing market before the 2008 financial crisis was immortalized in Michael Lewis’s book “The Big Short” — is no stranger to drawing attention on Twitter, though he has a habit of deleting his posts. He warned retail traders about a year ago that the “mother of all crashes” was coming. His cryptic comment on Tuesday came as the S&P 500 has posted seven straight weekly declines, the worst losing streak since 2001. Government data also showed that sales of new homes had plummeted April, with high prices and a steep climb in mortgage rates appearing to cool a market that has been running hot for two years. NN: I have no doubt in my mind that the mother of all crashes is dead ahead. Its all a matter of TC… What is TC you might ask. Its the boogies men of all traders. Successful ones can cages these monsters know they can eventually escape and have to be caged and tamed again and again. Its Timing and Cash. You have got to do something very hard for humans to do and that is pick your entry spots. The next is balancing your leverage to your cash. Another very difficult thing to do. Now our beloved CFD’s are a great equalizer. But to be clear here 80% of GAMBLERS in CFD’s lose money. And we will probable be among the losing masses…
Hedge Funds Brace for $20 Billion of Redemptions, Citco Says
Hedge funds globally are bracing for nearly $20 billion of investor redemptions for the rest of 2022, even after seeing a net inflow in the first quarter, according to a report from Citco Group Ltd. Investors are already scheduled to withdraw $13.5 billion from the industry in the current quarter and another $6.3 billion the rest of the year, said the fund administrator. While the numbers are smaller than the first-quarter redemptions of almost $39 billion, they can change significantly in either direction, depending on fund terms and investor actions. NN/; the only thing bigger then their redemptions are their losses….. So much for algoes and AI……
WTI Spikes On Large Draw In Gasoline Inventories
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a small build this week for crude oil of 567,000 barrels. The draw comes even as the Department of Energy released 6 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in Week Ending May 20.
U.S. crude inventories have shed some 75 million barrels since the start of 2021 and about 18 million barrels since the start of 2020, according to API data.
In the week prior, the API reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.445 million barrels after analysts had predicted a build of 1.533 million barrels. Oil prices had a modicum of calm on Tuesday, with WTI trading flat with 0% movement from Monday at $110.30 per barrel on the day at 11:21 a.m. ET—down roughly $4.50 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading up 0.20% on the day at $113.70—and down nearly $1 per barrel on the week, with the spread between the two benchmarks now completely evaporated. U.S. crude oil production rose to 11.9 million bpd in the week ending May 13. Crude production in the United States is down 1.2 million barrels per day from pre-pandemic times. This week, the API reported a large draw in gasoline inventories of 4.223 million barrels for the week ending May 20—on top of the previous week’s 5.102-million-barrel draw. Distillate stocks also saw a draw in inventory, of 949,000 barrels for the week compared to last week’s 1.075-million-barrel increase. Cushing saw a 731,000-barrel draw this week. Cushing inventories crashed to 25.839 million barrels in the week prior, as of May 13, according to EIA data—down from 59.2 million barrels at the start of 2021, and down from 37.3 million barrels at the end of 2021. NN: Is their any doubt in your mind their is a energy crises? Its tradable… We want to own oil at the right timing point. I believe we will see $150 and maybe even $200 OIL. This will be driven by the war. And i do not see any deescalation….. Oh by the way Putin is winning……. Because he is the sharpest tool in the box. (not hard to do when you consider the fucking idiots leading the worlds major democracy.
Record U.S. reverse repos highlight problem of investing excess cash
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Demand for the Federal Reserve’s reverse repurchase (RRP) facility has surged in the last few weeks, as the U.S. Treasury Department’s reduced supply of short-term bills left investors few options to park excess cash. Reverse repos are conducted by the New York Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk. In a reverse repo, market participants lend cash to the Fed, usually overnight, at an interest rate of 80 basis points, in exchange for Treasuries or other government securities, with a promise to buy them back. “We continue to see a grind higher in RRP balance,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, senior rates strategist at TD Securities in New York. “That’s a function of two things: first, the extreme high demand for front-end assets, and second, the amount of bills outstanding has continued to decline as Treasury has cut back supply because of fairly strong tax collections,” he added. The Fed’s reverse repo window attracted a record $2.045 trillion on Monday, as financial institutions continued to flood the facility with liquidity in exchange for Treasury collateral. Monday’s volume was one of a string of record highs for RRPs. NN: This is the fleeing cash from the crasing stock and bond markets looking for a home….. NN: Obviously cash, stocks, bonds and real estate are BAD investments. So we make money by buying oil and selling the assets that will crash like the stock market… Pretty simple but you got to use the right tools and get the timeing right.
Soros Sees an EU Edge…… World War III started?
Billionaire George Soros warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has rattled Europe and could be the start of another world war. “Other issues that concern all of humanity — fighting pandemics and climate change, avoiding nuclear war, maintaining global institutions — have had to take a back seat to that struggle,” Soros, 91, said Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “That’s why I say our civilization may not survive.” Soros noted that the conflict “has shaken Europe to its core,” underlining that the European Union was designed to prevent such a thing from occurring. He emphasized that even when the conflict ends, the situation in Europe will never revert to what it was before. The billionaire warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin may not wait for the EU to develop alternative sources of energy before halting gas supplies to the region.”The best and perhaps the only way to preserve our civilization is to defeat Putin as soon as possible,” said Soros. In addition to that, he accused Chinese President Xi Jinping of knowing Putin’s plans for the “special military operation” in Ukraine, noting that both leaders rule by “intimidation.” NN: even though Wl Street wants the lemmings to buy the dip….. truth is its the worst time ever to own stocks…
Glencore Pleads Guilty to Decade of Bribery and Manipulation
- Glencore announces coordinated settlements with US, UK, Brazil
- Company expects to pay about $1.5 billion to settle probes
Glencore Plc admitted to bribery and market manipulation and said it will pay about $1.5 billion to settle US, UK and Brazilian probes that have hung over the commodities giant for years. The settlements will help remove a question mark that has long overshadowed the trader’s business. But the charges and admissions of guilt paint a damning, globe-spanning picture of how far the company, founded by U.S. fugitive Marc Rich, has been willing to go in pursuit of profit. NN: I have fought these pricks for years in our oil trades. Reality is they got off with a slap on the wrist. Like i say petty crime does not pay. Big crimes always pays… hence the trillion dollar funds and investment banks
Stocks have a long way to go before they hit bottom….. IMF chief warns global economy faces ‘biggest test since second world war’
IMF head warns of ‘biggest test since second world war’
Kristalina Georgieva says Ukraine conflict is ‘devastating lives, dragging down growth and pushing up inflation’ Gloom has descended on financial markets in recent months. Many analysts, business people and politicians think the resilience displayed in much of the economic data so far cannot last. A survey of chief economists of companies and international organisations undertaken by the WEF found that all had become more pessimistic over the past six months and now expected “moderate” economic activity in the US, China and most emerging economies. A “weak” outlook closer to the war in Ukraine in Europe was forecast. Inflation would be high everywhere outside Asia, with real wages falling amid rising food insecurity and higher energy prices. The impact of global supply chain disruptions and higher interest rates had also been exacerbated by the war, raising fears that the global economic recovery from coronavirus was about to stall. Increasing numbers of economists have become alarmed that the world is sliding towards a recession. Chinese production has plunged as Beijing tries to contain coronavirus through lockdowns, Europe is suffering from a cost of living crisis, the US risks moving from boom to bust and emerging markets face food shortages.
Speaking on a panel at the forum, Robert Habeck, Germany’s vice-chancellor and economy minister, said: “I’m really afraid that we are running into a global recession, with a tremendous effect not only on [the climate], but on global stability.”
Jane Fraser, chief executive of Citi, said there would be a recession in Europe and a downturn in the rest of the world. It’s a question of “Russia, recession and rates” all damaging activity, she added. Georgieva said the horizon had “darkened” since the IMF made its forecast of 3.6 per cent growth for 2022 in April. The consequences of Russia’s invasion were being seen “far and fast, with tightening financial conditions, US dollar appreciation and China slowing down”. “It’s going to be a tough year,” she said, with recession in some countries likely but not the average for the whole world. NN: best of times the worst of times. We had the greatest peace and property the wold has ever seen. With wide open borders allowing the free flowing of goods and most people on the planet. World hungers WAS at the lowest level ever and the most people in human history were lifted from poverty. That party is over. Its a mindless rush to starvation, oppression and poverty. A fine China hand painted ceramic tea pot is hard to make and easy to break